Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

665
FXUS62 KRAH 151007
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
610 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 AM Wednesday...

* NCFS has requested Increased Fire Danger for all of central NC
  through at least Thursday, but statements (SPS) will only
  highlight the following day (Wed).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 AM Wednesday...

1) Dry fuels combined with rather breezy and very warm conditions
will promote fire weather concerns well into the weekend.

2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high
temperatures through Saturday.

3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal
passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by
much cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...  Dry fuels combined with rather breezy and very
warm conditions will promote fire weather concerns well into the
weekend.

Strong ridging over the SE will remain locked in place
into the weekend before weakening. Therefore, exceptionally very dry
and very warm conditions will continue for the next several days.
Highs will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and Thursday,
with little change Friday and Saturday. SW winds will occasionally be
breezy, moreso on Thursday with gusts to 25 mph possible.

Expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to be issued daily until
things change significantly.

Key Message 2: An early-season heat wave is expected to bring near-
record high temperatures through Saturday.

A strong and persistent area of subtropical high pressure will
remain over the Southeast U.S. through most of this period, with
only a brief interruption from a weak, dry disturbance on Friday. At
the surface, a Bermuda High will promote warm southwesterly winds
into central North Carolina.

Atmospheric thickness values (1000850 mb) are forecast to be near
the 95th percentile for this time of year, supporting unusually warm
conditions. Daily high and low temperatures may approach or even
break records. Expect afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s and
overnight lows in the lower to mid-60sabout 15 to 20 degrees above
normal. Saturday is likely to be the hottest day, with some
locations possibly reaching the mid-90s, which would be close to the
warmest temperatures ever recorded in April.

Humidity levels should remain relatively manageable, with dew points
generally in the lower to mid-50s, and even dipping into the 40s at
times, especially in western areas. As a result, heat index values
will be slightly lower than the actual air temperatures by a few
degrees. Even so, several consecutive days of lower-90s temperatures
could pose a risk of heat stress, particularly for sensitive
individuals and anyone spending extended time outdoors.

Key Message 3: A shift in the weather pattern is expected late this
weekend as a cold front moves through. This will bring a slight
chance of rain on Sunday, followed by much cooler temperatures early
next week.

A broad upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into
the eastern United States over the weekend. Its associated cold
front is forecast to pass through central North Carolina on Sunday.
This could bring a few showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm. However, current model guidance (including the GFS and
ECMWF) suggests the front will move through relatively early in the
day, limiting atmospheric instability. Forecast instability values
remain low, with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE expected.  In
addition, the strongest lift and deepest moisture are expected to
stay north of the area, which should keep rainfall amounts light.
Ensemble averages indicate totals of around a tenth of an inch or
less, meaning little to no improvement in ongoing drought conditions.

Behind the front, a noticeably cooler air mass will settle in for
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to fall below normal,
with daytime highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
overnight lows dropping into the 40s (some 30s are possible Tuesday
morning according to some of the latest guidance in the Piedmont).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
As of 610 AM Wednesday...

Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic
states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions and SSW
surface winds that will strengthen and become occasionally gusty
with daytime heating again today (10-20kt).

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR
conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be
possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC
early Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

All-Time Records for April

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930


Record High Temperatures:

April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006

April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941

April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941

April 19: KFAY: 94/1941


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993

April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921

April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/NP
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS
CLIMATE...rah