Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

845
FXUS62 KRAH 150511
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
111 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Wildfire smoke may lead to air quality issues later this week and
  weekend.

* Heat builds today and continues into early next week with
  dangerous heat late this week and weekend.

* Storm chances highest this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 111 AM Wednesday...

1) Heating up today, with increasing humidity levels and dangerous
heat Fri through the weekend.

2) Smoke from Canadian wildfires may reach the area later this week
and weekend.

2) Rain and storm chances increase this weekend and early next week,
with the highest confidence centered on Sat and Sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 111 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Heating up today, with increasing humidity levels
and dangerous heat Fri through the weekend.

Highs in the 90s will return today and remain in the forecast
through early next week. A 594-dm ridge will build into the region
and be in place at least into late Friday. The heat is not expected
to be as worrisome today and Thursday as afternoon dewpoints mix out
into the low to middle 60s. Nevertheless, heat indices Thursday
could still reach the 100 to 105 range, especially over the Triangle
and Sandhills, where the HeatRisk reaches a level 2-3. Dewpoints in
the upper 60s to low 70s will increasingly be favored during the
daytime Friday through early next week. The most dangerous heat and
humidity is expected Fri-Sat with widespread mid/upper 90s, with a
few areas reaching the century mark Friday, and heat indices of 104
to 108 degrees. The Triad looks to remain below heat advisory
criteria. Even though storm chances pick up this weekend and early
next week as ridge breaks down with northwest flow, a prolonged
period of hot days and warm nights through the extended will created
added heat stress for those most vulnerable. The risk is highest
along and east of US-1.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Smoke from Canadian wildfires may reach the area
later this week and weekend.

The GOES Geocolor satellite imagery reveals distinct wildfires
ongoing in Canada. Numerous fires have been noted, with a large
cluster of them currently located north and east of Minnesota. Even
as early as Tue evening, high-level wildfire smoke from these fires
was evident over central VA, owing to NNE to NNW flow at 300-mb from
the Mid-Atlantic. The latest 84-hr RRFS shows this wildfire smoke
may be over portions of central NC today and Thursday, but largely
be concentrated aloft at the mid-upper levels. Any near-surface
smoke is currently projected to be limited at this time. However, as
the ridge breaks down late Friday and northwest flow develops at
lower levels this weekend, we could see some surface-level smoke and
attendant air quality impacts. Those impacts are fairly unclear at
the moment, though the RRFS near-surface smoke does indicate some
haze and smoke potential as early as Friday over portions of NC/VA.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Rain and storm chances increase this weekend and
early next week, with the highest confidence centered on Sat and Sun.

With most ensemble guidance showing a 594-dm ridge over the region
into late Friday, the chance of diurnal afternoon and evening
convection appears limited. Some scenarios indicate that a weak
disturbance could get entrained into the flow late Fri for a few
isolated storms, but this should largely reside west of the area in
the NC mountains. Ensemble guidance is in much better agreement that
ridging breaks down over the weekend and early next week. Ensemble
clusters are showing northwest flow aloft starting this weekend and
persisting into early next week. As that happens, lee troughing and
a series of cold fronts from the north could serve as lift for storm
development. An initial wave and frontal zone looks to approach Sat-
Sun, where ensemble systems are most in agreement for convective
chances. As the boundary moves through or washes out, a secondary
boundary could approach next week Mon-Wed, keeping diurnal
convective chances in the forecast. Right now, we are not outlooked
for severe from SPC, but once convective coverage and timing are
better known, severe potential could be possible given shear and
instability that is expected to be present.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: Generally expect VFR conditions to prevail
through the TAF period. However, there could be some radiation fog
near KFAY and KRWI early Wed morn. Winds will be calm to light and
variable overnight, with light (mainly 5 kts or less) wly winds Wed
morn becoming swly-sswly through the day. Additionally, some smoke
in the mid-upper levels approaching from the nne may result in hazy
conditions.

Outlook: Increasing low-level moisture/humidity levels this weekend
will support a chance of both showers/storms and patchy mist/fog
and/or stratus.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

July 16:
KGSO: 99/1915
KRDU: 101/1887
KFAY: 103/1937

July 17:
KGSO: 101/1915
KRDU: 100/1887
KFAY: 102/1932

July 18:
KGSO: 97/1986
KFAY: 103/1942

July 19:
KFAY: 101/2002

July 21:
KRDU: 102/2011


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 16:
KFAY: 78/1992

July 17:
KGSO: 75/2025
KRDU: 80/1887
KFAY: 77/2019

July 18:
KGSO: 76/1986
KRDU: 80/2025
KFAY: 77/2025

July 19:
KGSO: 75/2016
KRDU: 80/1942
KFAY: 77/2023

July 20:
KGSO: 75/2019
KRDU: 76/2025
KFAY: 80/1996

July 21:
KGSO: 76/2011
KRDU: 78/1932
KFAY: 80/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...MWS/10
CLIMATE...RAH