Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

640
FXUS62 KRAH 271853
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 AM Monday...

1) The weak boundary moving through the region overnight will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast along the I-95
corridor this afternoon.

2) There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, with the primary threat
coming from damaging wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The weak boundary moving through the region
overnight will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast along the I-95 corridor this afternoon.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving through central
North Carolina overnight. That boundary will make its way past the I-
95 corridor and stall across eastern North Carolina this afternoon.
The bulk of the rain will stay to the east of the area, but there
will be a slight chance for showers between US-1 and I-95 and a
better chance for showers east of I-95. Thunderstorms will be
possible, but with minimal wind shear, the threat for any severe
thunderstorms is minimal with a lack of organization. While highs
will still be a few degrees below normal, highs will return to the
mid 80s to lower 90s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, with the
primary threat coming from damaging wind.

Low pressure currently over the northern Plains will move southeast,
reaching Lake Erie by Tuesday morning then drifting east into New
York through Wednesday. While the low will stall out, the associated
cold front is expected to continue pushing southeast, moving through
central North Carolina around sunset Tuesday night. Modest wind
shear will be present as the front moves through, although the
amount of available instability will be dependent on the exact
timing that the front moves through. With a deep layer of dry air
well above the surface, the greatest potential for severe weather
will come from downbursts. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center
is also showing the potential for large hail primarily north and
west of the Triangle and a minimal chance of a tornado north and
east of the Triangle. Much of the area is also under a marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Ahead of the
cold front, Tuesday may be the warmest day of the week, with most
locations having highs in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

TAF period: VFR conditions expected through the day. A few isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly across the Coastal
Plain this afternoon and evening. Since most of the storms should be
east of KRWI, kept out of this forecast package. However if
precipitation does occur, reduced ceilings and visibilities are
possible and added a TEMPO early Tuesday morning at KRWI.


Outlook: Fog/stratus will be possible again Tuesday morning,
although it appears there will be a greater likelihood in the
eastern portions of the CWA where the best chance for precip is
later today. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms appears likely
Tuesday late afternoon at INT/GSO/RDU and then in the evening at
RDU/RWI/FAY. Flight restrictions are expected during the storms as
severe thunderstorms move across the region. Wednesday morning
another chance of fog/status will be possible then VFR Thursday and
Friday. Another possibility for flight restrictions will be possible
over the weekend as the next chance of precipitation moves into the
region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...CA