Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

862
FXUS62 KRAH 111047
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat indices 100-102 in the Triangle Area south and east to the
  coast today. Best chance of storms in the northeast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Friday...

1) Hot today with a chance of PM thunderstorms, especially north
and east.

2) A bit cooler Saturday, but high humidity and thunderstorms are
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot today with a chance of PM thunderstorms,
especially north and east.

Expect the day to begin mostly sunny as the latest satellite and
observational data depict mainly clear skies under the upper ridge
over the SE states. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s, with heat
indices of 100-102 expected this afternoon, mainly from the eastern
Piedmont through the Coastal Plain.

A weak front to our north is expected to trigger scattered
thunderstorms, mainly over VA this afternoon. The latest hi-res
convection allowing models suggest that widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms will develop, mainly over the northern and
eastern areas of central NC this afternoon, then linger into the
evening. There may be a minimum of storm chances over the west-
central Piedmont (west of the pre-frontal trough).

Very muggy lows tonight in the 70s are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A bit cooler Saturday, but high humidity and
thunderstorms are expected.

The approaching mid/upper disturbance and weakening trough will give
us a glancing blow as it passes to our north on Saturday. A
weakening cold front and previous days left over boundaries should
focus a day when more numerous thunderstorms develop over the
region. QPF is up this run a little from previous runs, but 50
percent of the area may still remain less than 0.50 or less. PWs
will be very high and this moisture will combine with surface
heating into the mid 80s NW and 90 SE to produce MLCapes around 2000
to 2500 j/kg SE. Locally heavy rain is expected, yet flash flooding
should be isolated and limited to poor drainage areas. A few lucky
areas will get 1 to 1.5 inches storm totals.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Lingering showers/storms mainly I-95 east on
Sunday; otherwise, drier with temperatures closer to the 30
year historical averages most of the upcoming week.

There is a lingering chance of mainly PM showers/storms, especially
around and east of I-95 Sunday. Otherwise, dry upper ridging will
take control again Monday into Thursday. There is some good news as
temperatures are expected to be closer to normal, with a surface
high to our north and northeast bringing a light NE flow. Highs in
general this week will be in the 80s, flirting with 90 in the east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 646 AM Friday...

Most of central NC will remain VFR through the 24 hour TAF period.
An exception this afternoon and evening will be the chance of a
thunderstorm, mainly 18z-03z today/Sat. In addition, low stratus and
some fog are likely between 09z and 13z/Saturday morning.

Outlook: A period of two of showers/storms will be possible on
Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, generally
VFR daytime conditions are expected Sunday into Tuesday.

Additionally, low stratus and/or fog may develop and cause sub-VFR
restrictions early Sunday and early Monday mornings.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...Badgett