Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

506
FXUS62 KRAH 161818
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
218 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Air Quality Alerts have been issued for the Triangle and the
  Triad for today.

* Heat indices trending slightly downward for Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

1) Air Quality Alerts in effect until 8 PM in the Triangle and
midnight tonight in the Triad.

2) Hot temperatures and potentially dangerous heat expected
into Saturday.

3) Becoming unsettled this weekend into early next week with
increased precip chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Air Quality Alerts in effect until 8 PM in the Triangle and
midnight tonight in the Triad.

A hot and nearly stagnant air mass over the region today is
favorable for the development of dangerous levels of ozone,
primarily surrounding the main metropolitan areas of North
Carolina. This has prompted a Code Orange from the NC Division
of Air Quality around the Triangle and the Forsyth County Office
of Environmental Assistance and Protection for the Triad.
Although there is still lingering Canadian wildfire smoke over
the area, especially over northeast NC, these fine particulates
remain well above the surface and are not a contributing factor
to the poor air quality over the area.

A similarly stagnant and hot air mass will remain over the area
into Fri and may result in additional Code Orange Air Quality
Alerts. We will also be watching for the addition of fine
particulates currently streaming across NY/PA to work down into
VA and potentially into the Piedmont of NC by Fri morning.
However, the latest runs from the RRFS and to a lesser degree
the HRRR, which both simulate near-surface smoke, have trended to
keeping the highest concentrations mainly confined along and
north of the NC/VA border. How far south dangerous levels of
smoke will advect remains a point of uncertainty. Stay tuned
for additional forecasts to come later this afternoon and
potentially again Fri morning if the forecast changes.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Hot temperatures and potentially dangerous heat expected into
Saturday.

An elongated mid-lvl ridge axis stretching from the lower Ohio
Valley, across the Carolinas, and into the western Atlantic will
continue to provide background subsidence over the region
before breaking down on Sat. H850 temperatures of 19-22C
observed in the 12z RAOBs over VA and into NC will continue to
support hot temperatures over the region with minimal
thermal/moisture advection into Sat. Overwhelming model support
via low-lvl thickness and dry-adiabatic technique support
statistical guidance as well as the National Blend to result in
high confidence in 2m temperatures reaching the upper 90s to
around 100 this afternoon and once again on Fri. However,
confidence is lower with respect to dew points during peak
heating and whether they will support multiple hours of heat
indices in the mid/upper 100s, especially west of the US-1
corridor.

Forecast challenges: Model guidance remains consistent with
northerly winds persisting over the Piedmont into peak heating
where continued dry air aloft and some light downsloping
component west of a weak pressure trough may help mix dew points
into the low/mid 60s on Fri. Additionally within those
northwesterly winds, haze/smoke from Canadian wildfires may be
deposited into our area, which may further the temperature
forecast. Finally, hi-res guidance is beginning to develop
isolated to even locally scattered showers/storms Fri afternoon
with cool outflow potentially limiting the window to reach heat
indices around 105. Regardless on whether heat indices of 105
are met, light to nearly stagnant surface winds, abundant
sunshine and hot temperatures will still provide a favorable air
mass for heat related illnesses to occur among any individual
who does not have access to adequate hydration or cooling.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
Becoming unsettled this weekend into early next week with
increased precip chances.

By Saturday the upper ridge will break down across the Mid
Atlantic with broad northwesterly flow taking hold. A surface
wave will develop across the Great Lakes and migrate southward
on Saturday, making a run at NC late in the day. 00Z global
ensemble cluster solutions are in fairly good agreement in that
the front will hold short of crossing NC during the day on
Saturday although there should be some modest instability and
increasing moisture in place across NC to work with supporting
the notion of carrying some PoPs across the area. Increased
precip chances look to be focused more on Sunday when the front
is in closer proximity to central NC. It`s too early to pinpoint
the finer details but one would think areas along and east of
US-1 would stand a relatively higher chance of showers and
storms where the atmosphere has longer to destabilize ahead of
the front. There are some signals in the global ensembles and
even some of the higher-res deterministic solutions that the
tail end of the front may get hung up somewhere across the
northern/central Coastal Plain Sunday night into Monday morning,
perhaps serving as an additional focal point for continued
shower chances into the overnight hours.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned weak upper wave across the
northeastern Gulf will be drawn northward this weekend,
potentially interacting with the stalled surface boundary. While
the exact evolution of this upper wave remains uncertain and
whether or not it obtains tropical characteristics (NHC
currently projects a 20 percent chance of development),
unsettled weather looks to linger into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected across the area as 5-8
kft fair-weather cu bubble at the top of the mixed layer.
Although sub-VFR vsby can`t be completely ruled out due to
haze/smoke at the northern terminals Fri morning, model guidance
is trending farther north with the southern extent of the
higher concentrations of fine particulates from smoke. Isolated
shower or brief storm will be possible anywhere within central
NC Fri afternoon/evening.

Outlook: Increasing chances for diurnally driven showers/storms
each afternoon heading into the weekend. A wavy frontal zone
waffling over the region this weekend into early next week may
result in a more active weather pattern to support sub-VFR
conditions from stratus/mist overnight and scattered to locally
numerous showers/storms in the aft/eve.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record temperatures within 3F of forecast ones...

Record Highs:

July 16: KGSO: 99/1915  KRDU: 101/1887
July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932


Record High Mins:

July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/2019
July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KFAY: 77/2025
July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023
July 20: KRDU: 76/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ008-025-
026-041.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ021>023-
038-039.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/Leins
AVIATION...AS
CLIMATE...RAH