Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

049
FXUS62 KRAH 042334
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the South Atlantic states through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

Quasi-zonal to broadly and weakly anticyclonic flow will prevail
across the Southeast through tonight, while a low amplitude
shortwave trough now over the Dakotas will progress across the Great
Lakes.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Middle Atlantic
and Carolinas.

After initially clear skies this afternoon, a plume of srn stream
cirrus and cirrostratus, now evident in GOES-E satellite data from
the sern N. Pacific to the mid through upr MS Valleys, will progress
through the aforementioned broadly anticyclonic flow aloft and across
cntl NC (especially early) tonight. Meanwhile, moisture and
associated IFR-MVFR ceilings, now centered from nrn FL nwwd through
the Savannah Basin, will be directed nwd and across the srn and wrn
Piedmont of NC Mon morning. Low temperatures will likely display a
somewhat larger than average range mainly as a consequence of the
arrival and presence of the low cloudiness over wrn zones, where lwr-
mid 30s will be likely, ranging to lwr-mid 20s over the nrn Coastal
Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Quasi-zonal flow will continue across the Southeast, around a sub-
tropical high that will extend in the mid-levels from cntl and srn
MX to the wrn Gulf.

At the surface, high pressure initially centered along the srn
Middle Atlantic coast will split, with the main center that will
drift to near and north of Bermuda and another that will settle
across the South Atlantic coast. A coastal front will strengthen
between the two and along and just offshore the Southeast coast.

Stratocumulus ceilings over the srn and wrn Piedmont will linger
through the morning, then scatter through the afternoon-evening.
While the stratocumulus decrease in coverage, high-level ceilings,
probably orographically-enhanced across cntl/srn VA and nrn/ern NC,
will develop and prevail by evening and continue at times through
the night.

Temperatures Mon will be slow to rise through the 40s during the
morning, where the aforementioned stratocumulus ceilings result,
while warming through the 50s should result otherwise and elsewhere
in cntl NC. Following afternoon high temperatures will likely range
from lwr/mid 50s over the nw Piedmont to lwr 60s in the ern
Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain.

Return, sswly flow in the low-levels will promote strengthening
moisture advection and favor the development of very low overcast
and/or areas of fog Tue morning. Low temperatures will trend milder
and into the upr 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

* Patchy to areas of fog possible early Tues.

* Unseasonably warm temperatures mid to late week with temperatures
  15-25 degrees above normal.

* Considerable forecast uncertainty this weekend.

Moisture advection from the Southeast, with limited thermal
advection, early Tues morning is expected to lift into the western
Piedmont and gradually ooze eastward into Tues morning. This pattern
may support a northward advection of the widespread fog, some dense,
across SC and eastern GA this morning. Available hi-res guidance is
just now extending into Tues and is very aggressive with showing a
similar evolution over central NC Tues morning. Among available
guidance, probability of < 1 mile range from 20-50% across mainly
the Piedmont Tues morning lingering until after 15z in spots. Have
added patchy/areas of fog to the forecast, but not quite convinced
in development of dense fog quite yet and have kept mention out of
the HWO for now.

A backdoor cold front sagging into the area Wed night into Thurs
will briefly interrupt the gradual warming trend before lifting back
north as a warm front through the day on Thurs; bringing near record
warmth by Fri and perhaps into Sat.

Forecast confidence is considerably low this weekend. This
uncertainty stems from the very large timing and amplitude run-to-
run variations of a southern stream mid/upper level low forecast to
be positions off the CA coast Tues morning. From a 100 member grand-
ensemble perspective, the best rain chances will come around a cold
frontal passage, which is forecast to occur anytime within a 24 hour
window between early Sat morning through Sun morning. Most likely
amounts from this ensemble approach suggest 24hr totals range from
trace amounts to around 0.33" (25th and 75th percentiles) with
reasonable high-end amounts of around 0.50"; greatest totals more
probable across the Piedmont with lowest amounts in the Coastal
Plain and Sandhills.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions, with light and variable winds around high pressure
that will build across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic, will
prevail through tonight. As the high drifts offshore through Mon,
moisture and associated IFR-MVFR ceilings now centered from nrn FL,
nwwd through the Savannah Basin, will be directed nwd and across the
wrn Piedmont of NC Mon morning. 2000-4000 ft ceilings will
consequently become likely at INT/GSO around 12Z Mon, then linger
through early-mid afternoon. A period of IFR cigs are possible,
especially between 12z and 15z/Monday.

Outlook: Areas of fog and stratus are expected to develop Tue and
Wed mornings, amid an increasingly moist, return flow regime across
the Southeast. Marginal low-level wind shear will also be possible
Tue night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS