Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

721
FXUS62 KRAH 311844 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
244 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* None at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 PM Saturday...

1) Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and an increase in
cloudiness are expected this weekend.

2) Forecast confidence is high in unseasonably mild temperatures
next week but low regarding amounts with the next chance of rain
late in the week (favored Thu-Fri).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and an
increase in cloudiness are expected this weekend.

Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of a pair of mid and upper level
disturbances (one currently over the lower MS Valley and another
over the Southern Plains) is resulting in broken to overcast mid and
high clouds overspreading central NC from the south and west this
afternoon. This will continue through tomorrow, but no rain is
expected given a dry and stable air mass in the lower levels.

High temperatures this weekend will be near normal, generally mid-to-
upper-60s today and a couple degrees warmer than that tomorrow.
Temperatures for trick-or-treating this evening will be mostly in
the mid-50s to mid-60s. While low-level thicknesses will be lower
tonight, the effect will be somewhat offset by the increased cloud
cover, so bumped up forecast lows on Sunday morning a tad to mid-40s
to 50. Monday morning`s lows should again be similar, perhaps a
degree or two warmer.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast confidence is high in unseasonably mild
temperatures next week but low regarding amounts with the next
chance of rain late in the week (favored Thu-Fri).

There remains considerable model spread and forecast uncertainty
regarding episodes of stream interaction and phasing of the flow
upstream of a mid-level ridge that will otherwise remain and
redevelop just offshore the srn Middle Atlantic coast for most of
next week. There is good model consensus that the ridge will weaken
and drift to near and east of Bermuda by the end of the week, which
should allow for perturbed, cyclonic flow to progress ewd and across
cntl NC by Fri. Although the geometry of the cyclonic flow is less
certain, there remains a consistent signal in model guidance for the
stronger height falls to "lift" and pass to the north and west of
cntl NC at least through Sat.

At the surface, the most dominant and highest predictability feature
will be a ridge, related a 1034 mb Canadian high now centered over
the lwr Great Lakes, which will extend across the Middle Atlantic
through the middle of next week. Similar uncertainty regarding the
evolution of the trough aloft noted above exists with the strength
and timing of passage of the accompanying surface frontal zone,
probably through cntl NC on or around Friday based on recent model
guidance. While the probability of rain will increase ahead of that
front by Thu, then maximize with its passage, rainfall amounts
remain highly uncertain; and the prospects for a soaking rain area-
wide are in doubt.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: There is high confidence in VFR conditions
across central NC through the next 24 hours. An upper disturbance
and more SW flow ahead of it is resulting in mid and high clouds
beginning to spread in from the south and west, and this will
continue through the rest of the TAF period, with ceilings slightly
lowering to around 15 kft. Due to dry air in the low levels, no
precipitation is expected. NE winds are mainly around 5-10 kts,
which will lessen to 5 kts or less after dark and increase slightly
again on Sunday morning. A few gusts to around 15 kts can`t be ruled
out for a few more hours this afternoon, mainly in the far SE around
FAY, but they are mostly diminishing.

Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through the middle of the
upcoming work week with a small chance of some stratus/fog on
Wednesday morning and a better chance on Thursday morning. There is
also a chance of light rain in the west on Wednesday and areawide on
Thursday, but there is still a lot of uncertainty and overall
amounts are trending downward.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/MWS
AVIATION...Danco/Blaes