Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

039
FXUS62 KRAH 011939 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
339 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

* Increased Fire danger will continue through at least Thu, with
  limited rain chances until Sun

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

1) Isolated convection with strong wind gusts possible over the far
nw Piedmont between mainly between 6P-9P.

2) Increased fire danger will continue through at least Thu. A
statewide burn ban remains in place, which prohibits all open
outdoor burning until further notice.

3) Isolated showers and storms are possible mainly in the western
Piedmont on Friday and Saturday. More-widespread showers and storms
are expected on Sunday/Sunday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated convection with strong wind gusts possible
over the far nw Piedmont this evening, mainly between 6P-9P.

Already steep low-level (0-3km) lapse rates ~9 C/km, per 19Z SPC
mesoanalysis data, will further steepen with continued strong
surface heating into the lwr-mid 80s throughout the Carolinas and VA
this afternoon. Related surface dewpoint depressions around 25F will
favor strong diabatic cooling potential and outflow development and
maintenance, as will DCAPE between 750-1000 J/kg. As such,
convection that developed due to orographic circulations over the
Blue Ridge will probably continue to propagate generally ewd along
common, mulit-cell outflow and to near and especially just northwest
of the Triad through this evening. It will do so despite a lack of
large-scale forcing for ascent over NC, between a strong ridge over
the cntl and wrn N. Atlantic and a shortwave trough that will pivot
across the cntl Plains. Even in the absence of convection reaching
the nw Piedmont with much needed rain, gusty outflow winds of up to
30-40 mph will be possible before convection wanes/dissipates with
loss of heating.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Increased fire danger will continue through at
least Thu. A statewide burn ban remains in place, which prohibits
all open outdoor burning until further notice.

NC forestry officials remain concerned about the very dry fuel
moisture, relative humidity values in the 35-45 percent range, and
marginally strong and gusty surface winds - all of which are
forecast to generally continue until the next cold front and
accompanying convection move across the state on Sunday. After
coordination with NCFS earlier this afternoon, it was agreed that
the Fire Danger Statement should continue through at least Thursday,
then assess the need for a continuation in subsequent days. RH may
reach a relative minimum on Thu, when a pocket of dry air just off
the NC coast this afternoon is forecast to be advected inland and
cause surface dewpoints to "mix out"/vertically-advect into the lwr-
mid 50s F, with related min RH between 35-40% Thu afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Isolated showers and storms are possible mainly in
the western Piedmont on Friday and Saturday. More-widespread showers
and storms are expected on Sunday/Sunday night with a cold frontal
passage.

Isolated showers and storms will be possible on Friday and Saturday
afternoons as the mid-level high begins migrating back east in
response to a trough pushing east over the Central US, and as
southerly flow around a Bermuda surface high advects moisture off
the Atlantic. This chance will be mostly confined to the western
Piedmont (west of the Triangle) which will be furthest removed from
the high pressure and where some orographically-enhanced convection
may trickle east from the Mountains and Foothills. Can`t rule out
isolated seabreeze convection moving into our SE zones as well. GEFS
and GEPS mean QPF has trended drier on average, and WPC now has zero
QPF across central NC, on both days. Despite high temperatures
reaching the lower-80s Friday and lower-to-mid-80s Saturday, given
poor mid-level lapse rates and surface dew points mixing out into
the 50s, CAPE looks to be less than 500 J/kg both days and there
will be a lack of forcing. Thus convective coverage is expected to
be very limited. Also not expecting any organized severe threat with
more pulse-type storms given the very weak mid-level flow.

More widespread showers and storms are expected on Sunday along and
ahead of a strong cold frontal passage. Mid/upper troughing will
move across the Eastern US with resulting moderate mid-level height
falls across central NC. Mid-level flow will increase to the 40-50
kt range, so shear could be sufficient for isolated strong to severe
storms, but confidence is still low at this time given timing
differences in guidance. The 12z ECMWF looks more similar to the GFS
with a late afternoon/evening frontal passage, but the 00z run had
been slower. A delayed frontal passage compared to earlier in the
day would give more time for daytime heating and instability to
build up. POPs are now in the categorical range, but ensemble mean
QPF is generally a quarter to half an inch, which should still
provide only limited relief from the ongoing drought.

Conditions behind the front from Monday through Wednesday will turn
much cooler with highs mostly in the 60s and lows mostly in the
lower-to-mid-40s. The region should also be largely free of
precipitation early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wednesday...

Scattered convection developing over the Blue Ridge may organize
along common outflow and move near the vicinity, and probably just
northwest, of INT in the few hours centered around 00Z this evening.
Even in the absence of convection over the airport, gusty outflow
surface winds will be possible there ahead of it, even for an hour
or so after it weakens/dissipates. VFR conditions, and with
occasionally gusty sswly surface winds especially through sunset,
are expected otherwise and elsewhere in cntl NC through early Thu.
Like that which occurred this past morning at GSO, there is a chance
of IFR-MVFR ceilings over the Piedmont (INT/GSO/RDU) between 12-15Z
Thu morning.

Outlook: Low-level moisture will gradually deepen and support
increasing probabilities of early morning IFR-MVFR stratus
particularly Fri and Sat mornings, and possibly again Sun, ahead of
a cold front and chance of convection and flight restrictions that
will move across cntl NC on Sun.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 1:
KGSO: 90/1910
KRDU: 89/1974
KFAY: 87/2010

April 2:
KGSO: 87/2010
KFAY: 90/1974

April 3:
KFAY: 90/1934

April 4:
KGSO: 87/2025
KRDU: 90/2025


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1:
KGSO: 63/2016
KRDU: 67/2016

April 2:
KGSO: 61/1979
KRDU: 66/2024
KFAY: 66/2024

April 5:
KFAY: 67/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/Danco
AVIATION...MWS