Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

372
FXUS62 KRAH 232356
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
656 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 350 PM Friday...

* Forecast confidence has increased and the Winter Storm Watch has
  been upgraded to a combination of Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
  Weather Advisories. Full AFD update is in the works and will be
  issued by mid afternoon.

* The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Mild temperatures
  today ahead of a significant winter storm this weekend. Turning
  substantially colder early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 350 PM Friday...

1) A Winter Storm will impact central NC from Saturday afternoon
through Sunday night. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a
pair of Winter Storm Warnings and a Winter Weather Advisory.

2) Bitterly cold wind chills are expected tonight, with wind chills
dropping into the 5 to 10 degree range in the northern Coastal Plain
late tonight. Extremely cold temperatures in the 5-15 degree range
are then expected Monday night, accompanied by wind chills of -5 to
10 degrees.

3) Very cold temperatures will continue from Tuesday through the end
of the week. A period of light snow can`t be ruled out on Wednesday
night and early Thursday, mainly across the north, but any
accumulations would be minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 350 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Winter Storm will impact central NC from Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. The Winter Storm Watch has been
upgraded to a pair of Winter Storm Warnings and a Winter Weather
Advisory.

Sleet and freezing rain should be the dominant precipitation types
and account for the greatest and most significant accumulation.
However, some snow is possible early across the northwest and
northern Piedmont early on.

The Winter Storm Warning:

Segment covering the northwest/nrn Piedmont begins at 1 PM Saturday,
where precipitation has the best chance of reaching the ground
before sunset. Onset of precipitation here should be snow, with a
changeover to sleet during the evening and freezing rain/sleet
thereafter.

The segment covering the majority of the Piedmont and nrn Coastal
Plain will begin at 7 PM Saturday. While there could be some very
light precipitation reaching the ground before, chances and/or
impacts in that occurrence remain relatively low. This segment has
the best chance of being predominantly freezing rain and sleet, with
some snow a the onset over the far nrn/ne Piedmont early.

The Winter Weather Advisory: The Advisory will begin at 7 PM
Saturday. Lowest confidence in ice accumulations of 0.25" or more,
as there is still some uncertainty with overall amounts/duration
before a changeover to rain.

Discussion:

Overview: There has been little change to the overall synoptic
pattern since the previous discussion. Wly flow aloft will become
increasingly swly from Sat through Sun night as the low over the
Baja will open into a s/w trough and eject ewd-enewd (moving across
the Southeast and srn mid-Atlantic Sun/Sun night) as it gets picked
up by the amplifying longwave trough. At 850 mb, as the low
strengthens and shifts east across the ARKLATEX and into the mid-
MS/TN Valley Sat/Sat night, it will push the ridge axis out of the
area, with WAA increasing from the southwest Sat aft/night through
Sun, such that sub-zero 850 mb temperatures over cntl NC at 12Z Sat
are forecast to markedly increase to between 10-15 C by Sun evening.
The low will subsequently lift newd from the mid-MS Valley to the OH
Valley on Sun, while the jet strengthens east of the Appalachians.
At the surface, the Arctic high will split on Sat, with a 1040 mb
high breaking off and drifting ewd across the Great Lakes and
Northeast US Sat/Sat night, while the parent high weakens over the
upper-MS Valley Sat. The former will lift nwd into and across Quebec
Sun/Sun night. This high will be favorably strong and located and
dammed east of the Appalachians for a significant (classical,
diabatically-enhanced) cold air damming episode through much of Sun.
A pair of lows will develop along the srn and ern periphery of the
wedge, one over the central Gulf Coast and the other off the
Southeast US coast Sat night/Sun. The leading low off the Southeast
US coast will lift nwd along the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts
Sat night/Sun. A third low may develop north of or break off from
the Gulf Coast low and lift nwd along and west of the Appalachians
on Sunday, while the primary low tracks ewd across the Deep South
and Southeast. It should then lift newd along the Carolina coast and
meet up with the leading low off the Northeast US coast Sun night.
The surface wet bulb freezing line roughly along the NC coast on Sat
will probably retreat nwwd across the NC Coastal Plain and ern
Sandhills Sun afternoon-evening, then perhaps briefly into the
Piedmont by or shortly after midnight Mon morning. This surface
pattern will favor corridors of predominant precipitation-types that
will likely include significant accumulation/accrual of sleet and/or
freezing rain over cntl NC.

Sensible Weather: Expect dry weather for most of the day Sat, with
virga that will likely begin to reach the ground across the nrn
Piedmont late in the afternoon or by evening. It will do so during a
time when partial thickness values and top-down both suggest snow
would, for the first few or so hours, be the predominant
precipitation type, and when most any snow would be able to
accumulate - perhaps an inch or so over the nrn Piedmont, depending
upon how quickly it can reach the ground. The time window for snow
will be limited, however, as the aforementioned significant warming
aloft (centered around 850 mb) noses rapidly newd and promotes a
changeover to sleet. Precipitation types overnight should transition
to predominantly sleet and freezing rain and remain largely that
into the day Sun. The aforementioned nwwd retreat of the surface wet
bulb freezing line into at least the Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal
Plain will favor a brief changeover to all rain there Sun evening-
early Sun night, and possibly into parts of the Piedmont including
Raleigh, however briefly around midnight.

Accumulations: Forecast storm total liquid equivalent amounts range
from around 1.0" in the srn Coastal Plain, to around 1.5-1.75"
across the Triangle, to 1.75-2.1" in the far nrn/nw Piedmont
(Triad). We are still relatively confident there being corridors of
precipitation types that will be mostly ice and a combination of
sleet/freezing rain in cntl NC, but exact amounts remain somewhat in
question given the duration of when each will be predominant, and
what precipitation rates are during each. The best estimate at the
moment would be for 2-4" of frozen (ie. snow and mostly sleet across
the far nrn/nw Piedmont, to around one inch frozen around the
Triangle, to Trace frozen over the srn tier. Freezing rain accrual,
which would be mostly on top of frozen, or mixed with any that may
linger given the atypically cold and possibly ice nucleating cold
nose, are forecast to maximize between 0.5-0.65" centered roughly
along the I-85 corridor. That maximum will be surrounded by somewhat
lighter accrual, but still mostly one quarter to one half inch.
There is still some uncertainty whether ice accrual across the
southeast and across the Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain will
meet or exceed 0.25", where both a changeover to plain rain by Sun
evening and also lesser liquid equivalent amounts will likely
result.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Bitterly cold wind chills are expected tonight,
with wind chills dropping into the 5 to 10 degree range in the
northern Coastal Plain late tonight. Extremely cold temperatures in
the 5-15 degree range are then expected Monday night, accompanied by
wind chills of -5 to 10 degrees.

A strong cold front crossing the area on MOnday will usher in an
extremely cold arctic airmass Monday night. Low-level thicknesses
dipping below 1250m support lows in the single digits in the west
where decoupling is more likely, with 10-15F for eastern areas.
Winds will be weakening behind the front as the high builds in, but
a 5-10mph northwest wind will still result in extremely cold wind
chills as low as -5 to 0F in the Piedmont and 0- to 5F in the
Coastal Plain. These values will mostly likely warrant an Extreme
Cold Warning for Monday night.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Very cold temperatures will continue from Tuesday
through the end of the week. A period of light snow can`t be ruled
out on Wednesday night and early Thursday, mainly across the north,
but any accumulations would be minimal.

Arctic high pressure over the Southeast US will continue to bring
bitterly cold temperatures to central NC on Tuesday. Highs will
struggle to reach freezing across the north, with mid-30s across the
south. This is around 20 degrees below normal. Wind chills will
struggle to get out of the 20s. Even as the high weakens and
retreats westward on Tuesday night and the air mass starts to modify
a bit, a weaker pressure gradient, mostly clear skies, and any
sleet/snow still on the ground should help low temperatures drop
into the teens. Wednesday may turn a bit less cold with forecast
highs in the lower-30s to lower-40s.

This slight reprieve will be short-lived as another strong 1040-1050
mb Arctic high over south-central Canada drops south into the
Northern Plains late next week. This will push another Arctic front
through central NC on Wednesday night, and behind it, forecast highs
on Thursday and Friday are only in the upper-20s to mid-30s. Lows
Thursday night will again be dangerously cold, with air temperatures
dropping into the single digits and lower-teens (which would be near
the record daily lows) and wind chills getting near or below zero in
many parts of the area.

Some guidance suggests a clipper system may result in a period of
light snow across portions of central NC on Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. Temperatures both aloft and at the surface would
certainly be cold enough to support snow, and snow-to-liquid ratios
would likely be quite high, but the question is whether it will have
enough moisture to overcome the dry air mass in place or if
precipitation will dissipate as it crosses the Appalachians. The 12z
GFS has a sharper shortwave compared to the ECMWF and CMC and thus
is wetter. The best chance of any snow looks to be across the north,
where a quarter to a third of GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensembles depict
measurable precipitation. So slight chance POPs are warranted for
now. Any accumulations would be light.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 PM Friday...

00Z Update:  A cold front will surge south through the area tonight
and be followed by northerly winds that will gust to 20-25kt
overnight. This will generally continue through 00Z Sunday, though
winds will weaken a bit and skies will slowly become overcast at 5-
7k ft.

Outlook: A winter storm will bring widespread sleet, freezing rain,
and sub-VFR conditions to the area Saturday night and Sunday,
resulting in a poor aviation conditions. An onset of snow/sleet is
still possible at the Triad terminals and may reduce visibility to
LIFR/VLIFR for a period of time (00-06z Sunday). In addition,
extreme LLWS is expected Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions will
improve by Monday and VFR is expected thereafter, although gusty
northwest winds will continue Monday during the daylight hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 25:
KGSO: 23/1940
KRDU: 28/2013
KFAY: 30/2013


Record Low Temperatures:

January 26:
KRDU: 10/1940

January 27:
KRDU: 8/1940
KFAY: 11/1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday for
NCZ007-021>024-038-039.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday for
NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-073>077-083>086.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday for
NCZ078-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BLS/10/MWS/Danco
AVIATION..BLS/AS