Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS62 KRAH 220541
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1241 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1240 AM Thursday...

* Only a chance of light rain showers tonight and early Friday,
  mainly in the south and east.
* Confidence in a significant weekend winter storm continues to
  increase.
* Continued high confidence in bitterly cold temperatures from early
  Saturday through early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1240 AM Thursday...

1) Moderating temperatures today into Friday ahead of the arctic
front Friday night. Only a chance of light showers night into
Friday. Time to prepare for the winter storm expected this weekend.

2) A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Piedmont and
portions of the central and northern Coastal Plain. This is due to
confidence increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain
Saturday into Sunday.

3) Extremely cold temperatures and dry conditions are expected
behind the front early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1240 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Moderating temperatures today into Friday ahead of
the arctic front Friday night. Only a chance of light showers
tonight into Friday. The amounts will be light, only less than 0.10
and higher probabilities in the SE. .

Highs today will return to the 50s. Lows tonight will be in the mid
30s to around 40.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the
Piedmont and portions of the central and northern Coastal Plain.
This is due to confidence increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and
freezing rain Saturday into Sunday.

Confidence is increasing in a Miller B low track bringing widespread
snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the region. All of the 12Z LREF
clusters are showing precipitation across the region this weekend.
With very cold high pressure moving into the region after the
passage of an Arctic cold front, wintry precipitation types will be
likely to occur. During the day on Saturday, an inverted trough will
set up over the southeast US, with a CAD setup over central NC due
to the high pressure funneling cold air into the region. By Sunday
morning, low pressure will move northeast out of the Gulf,
eventually dissipating over the Appalachian mountains. At the same
time, a low will form off the coast of the Carolinas and move north,
setting up the Miller B pattern.

During this type of pattern, multiple precipitation types are
likely. While we will be cold at the surface, sleet and freezing
rain are looking increasingly likely as warming trends are being
shown at around 850mb. The latest cluster analysis from the 12Z LREF
shows that the majority of the solutions indicate a warm nose making
its way well inland, perhaps as far west as the NW Piedmont. The
thickness and strength of this warm layer will determine what exact
precipitation type will occur at any given location. While many
locations may start off seeing snow on Saturday morning, a
changeover from snow to sleet and/or freezing rain will remain
possible everywhere Saturday afternoon through the day on Sunday.
Precipitation is expected to move out of the region Monday morning.
Regardless of type, whatever does fall/accrue could be significant
and may have lingering effects well into the next work week. Thus, a
Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Saturday afternoon through
Monday afternoon for the Piedmont and portions of the central and
northern Coastal Plain.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Extremely cold temperatures and dry conditions are
expected behind the front early next week.

Extremely cold temperatures and dry weather are expected behind the
exiting winter storm early next week. Arctic surface high pressure
will build into the area early next week, then settle over the
region. This will yield low temps bottoming out in the single digits
to low teens by Tuesday morning with wind chill values near zero to
the single digits. High temperatures are expected to be in the 30s
early to mid next week as well. Thus, much below normal temperatures
are expected for an extended time early to mid next week and a Cold
Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold Watch and/or Warning may be needed
during this time frame.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Thursday...

There is high confidence in VFR through the 24-hour TAF period.
Ceilings will lower somewhat to around 5 to 8 kft with an
approaching weak cold front, but remain VFR. Winds will generally
remain out of the WSW early then becoming WNW this morning ahead of
a cold front that will push through today.

Outlook: A band of light rain may lead to sub-VFR conditions later
tonight into Fri, with the highest probability at FAY/RWI. This
weekend, confidence continues to increase in a potential winter
storm, which will likely bring wintry precipitation and associated
sub-VFR conditions late Sat and Sun, before VFR conditions return
early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...


Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 25:
KGSO: 23/1940
KRDU: 28/2013
KFAY: 30/2013


Record Low Temperatures:

January 27:
KRDU: 8/1940
KFAY: 11/1940



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/CA/LH/BSD
Aviation...Badgett/Kren