Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

130
FXUS62 KRAH 250632
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Isolated heavy rainfall possible today with anomalously high
  moisture

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 232 AM Monday...

1) Isolated to scattered storms today capable of heavy rainfall,
focused along residual boundaries and small-scale circulations

2) Moist and muggy through mid week with high probabilities for
precipitation

3) Thursday will be a transition day from muggy conditions to cooler
weather for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 232 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated to scattered storms today capable of
heavy rainfall, focused along residual boundaries and small-
scale circulations

Storm chances today across central NC will have the potential for
heavy rainfall in isolated locations. The deep-layer moisture
approaches 2 inches of precipitable water, roughly 200-percent of
normal for this time of year. A continued southwest flow will
persist today, as central NC is situated northwest of the 591 dm mid-
level ridge. At the surface, general SSW flow will be in place
around the Bermuda high.

Our storm chances today look to be focused and driven by small-scale
boundaries and remnant MCVs. Satellite and radar presently indicate
a remnant MCV tracking across western NC. This along with 925-mb
moisture transport will warrant isolated to scattered showers around
portions of central NC into mid-morning. The aforementioned MCV
should lift into VA this afternoon. The high-res CAMs are then
suggesting an earlier initiation of convection today, perhaps as
early as midday for areas along/east of US-1. This convection
appears to be tied to a remnant MCV currently in central SC that
will reach central/eastern areas of central NC late-morning and
afternoon, as well as a pronounced surface theta-e gradient oriented
along the US-1 corridor. This may force isolated to scattered storms
over the Sandhills, eastern Piedmont, Triangle, and Coastal Plain
into early evening. Another area of convection may develop late in
the day into the late-evening over the Triad and northwest Piedmont
tied to the remnant CAD boundary. While confidence is not great,
there is the potential for isolated heavy rainfall given the highly
anomalous moisture and thus efficient rain rates with any slow-
moving cells. The HREF/REFS both suggest isolated totals of 1-3
inches of rain along the prior mentioned focus regions. WPC has a
marginal risk of excessive rain over all of central NC. Any flood
threat appears minimal except in low-lying or urban areas. Outside
of these heavy rain areas, rainfall totals of a quarter to one half
inch is possible, with some areas seeing less than that.

While most convection should die out by late evening, another MCV
upstream could bring pockets of light showers overnight, but with
much less coverage overall and focused across the north and west
along the residual surface boundary.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Warm and unseasonably humid/muggy through mid-week,
with above average chances of rain/convection

While the wedge that plagued central North Carolina on Saturday and
Sunday will have moved to the north by Monday, a stationary front
will remain along the length of the Ohio River and then extending
south along the Mississippi River. In addition, the Bermuda high
will continue to provide southerly moist flow across the
southeastern United States. The combination of the stationary front
and the flow will remain as a focus for showers and thunderstorms
through the first half of the week. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
are all expected to be mostly cloudy with showers and isolated
thunderstorms, although it will not rain continuously. There is low
predictability as to when particular impulses will move along the
front and increase the chance of rain locally. Unlike this weekend,
where the wedge kept stable air across the area and there was
minimal thunderstorm coverage, there should be greater thunderstorm
coverage during the week, although a lack of shear this far away
from the front should prevent any thunderstorms from becoming
severe. Highs will generally be in the 80s.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Trending milder and progressively drier, with
respect to both humidity and rain chances late week into next weekend

Thursday appears likely to be the warmest day out of the next seven,
although the forecast has been trending drier that day with the
portion of the stationary front along the Ohio River finally
beginning to drop to the south. Thursday night and Friday should be
the driest 24 hour period in the next week, but after that, the
front will then become hung up over South Carolina during the
weekend. Being on the cooler side of the front, highs on Saturday
and Sunday should only be in the 70s. The rain chances will increase
for Saturday and Sunday, particularly across southern counties
closer to the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 232 AM Monday...

A return of IFR to MVFR ceilings will likely start the TAF period as
low-level moisture favors low stratus. Areas of LIFR conditions will
be possible at GSO/INT prior to daybreak as a remnant MCV tracks
across the western part of NC and the northwest Piedmont to bring
light showers or drizzle. Expect a gradual improvement in ceilings
Mon from IFR/MVFR in the morning to VFR in the afternoon, slowest to
erode in the NW and earliest at FAY. As for shower and storm
chances, the CAMs appear to be indicating convection initiating
sooner than prior days, perhaps as early as midday across the
eastern sites of RDU/FAY/RWI. These convective chances appear to be
driven by a remnant MCV presently in south-central SC. High-res
guidance indicates this will track NE into the region during the
late-morning and afternoon hours. For now, introduced TEMPO groups
for storms in the 17 to 22z time frame, but this may need to be
adjusted sooner if trends continue. Another chance of storms will
exist at GSO/INT in the 22-02z time period along a residual surface
boundary.

Outlook: Daily chances for showers and storms will continue through
the period, along with morning fog or stratus. While still
uncertain, there is perhaps a signal for drier weather to return
Friday into next weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 25:
KRDU: 71/2019
KFAY: 71/2019

May 26:
KGSO: 70/2019
KRDU: 73/2011
KFAY: 75/2004

May 27:
KRDU: 72/1991
KFAY: 72/2006

May 28:
KGSO: 70/2012
KRDU: 74/1914

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Green
AVIATION...Kren
CLIMATE...RAH