Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

421
FXUS62 KRAH 022322
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
722 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No appreciable changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 310 PM Friday...

1) A transition to cooler, wetter weather is expected this weekend
as a cold front moves through, with periods of rain continuing
through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...  A transition to cooler, wetter weather is expected
this weekend as a cold front moves through, with periods of rain
continuing through Sunday.

Saturday morning, a cold front will approach the region and slowly
move through during the day before stalling to our south. This will
likely allow for a large range in maximum temperatures for tomorrow,
with the forecast ranging from the low 70s in the north to the mid
80s in the south. During the afternoon, showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms look to develop mostly in the southern half of the
region ahead of and along the front. Another area of rain looks to
develop behind the front to our north. This rain however looks like
it should remain to our north according to latest CAM guidance.

As the front stalls to our south Saturday night, cool high pressure
should build in. This may result in a CAD wedge to set up over the
region. During the day on Sunday, the front looks like it could
retrograde north, back into central NC. These two things should
combine to allow for a more widespread and steadier rain to develop
Saturday night and through the day on Sunday. Most model and
ensemble guidance is suggesting between 1-2.5 inches of rain between
Saturday morning and Monday morning, with the highest amounts in the
southeast. Some models are also showing signals of a few locations
with higher rainfall totals where heavier rain could develop, mostly
in the south near the frontal boundary.

A reinforcing cold front will move through the region on Monday.
This should eliminate any rain chances for the rest of the week as
cool and dry high pressure builds back in. High temperatures to
start the work week should generally be in the mid/upper 60s to mid
70s, with Tuesday looking to be the coolest day. Lows look to drop
into the 40s Tuesday night as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 722 PM Friday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions for the start of the TAF
period. A backdoor cold front will move through the region Saturday
morning, earliest across the north (12-15z) and latest in the south
(15-18z). The front, however, may stall out near FAY before fulling
pushing south late Saturday. Regardless, sub-VFR ceilings are
expected in the wake of the front. Along and north of the front,
MVFR conditions will dominate, but a brief period of IFR may develop
Saturday morning at GSO/INT. The guidance is mixed on how quickly
MVFR develops at RDU/RWI, with some around 12z and others as late as
18z. The latest forecast went with the median consensus of the
guidance around 15z. At FAY/RWI, a period of sub-VFR visibilities
are possible Saturday morning. A period of afternoon and evening
showers are favored, especially along and south of the front. A few
storms could develop near FAY during the late afternoon and evening.
We included a TEMPO for this with the latest TAF. Storms could
develop as far north as RDU but confidence was too low to include at
this time.

Outlook: Widespread adverse aviation conditions in clouds and rain
with associated sub-VFR restrictions are expected across the entire
region Saturday night into early Monday. A drier air mass will build
into the region midday Monday, with a return to fair weather and VFR
conditions expected for the second half of Monday through mid week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LH
AVIATION...Kren