Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

548
FXUS62 KRAH 250709
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
305 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Areas of fog developed early this morning in the southern Coastal
  Plain.
* Precipitation chances and amounts are increasing for Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 305 AM Tuesday...

1) This morning will be the coolest morning of this stretch with
one last day of dry weather and less humid conditions before humid
weather returns later this week.

2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC as
early as Wednesday, but more likely Thursday into Saturday before
shifting towards the coast through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... This morning will be the coolest morning of this
stretch with one last day of dry weather and less humid conditions
before humid weather returns later this week.

The morning surface analysis shows a surface trough moving across
Central NC early this morning with a modest surge of drier air and
lower dewpoints moving into the area from the northwest. In fact,
morning low level thickness values this morning at 12Z will be about
10m cooler than yesterday. Lingering low level moisture confined to
the southern Coastal Plain, where dew points are still in the lower
70s, has supported the development of fog, mainly across Sampson,
Wayne and Edgecombe Counties. This fog should be eroded from the
west by the arrival of drier air early this morning and if
still present, it should be burned off after sunrise.

Mainly clear skies are expect today and tonight although there may
be a few wisps of high cirrus clouds and possibly a few clouds fair
weather clouds. No convection is expected. Highs today should range
in the mid to upper 80s which is near if not a degree or two above
average. Lows tonight will range in the 60s. Winds will be light
although a brief gust or two is possible after daybreak through mid
morning as the surface inversion breaks and the shallow low level
jet mixes to the surface.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to central
NC as early as Wednesday, but more likely Thursday into Saturday
before shifting towards the coast through the weekend.

A broad mid/upper lvl trough will persist over the northeastern
CONUS on Wed before gradually sharpening Wed night into Thurs as a
pair of shortwave troughs carousel across the Upper Great Lakes and
southern Ontario through Thurs night. At the surface, weak high
pressure, progged to be located over the northern Mid-Atlantic Wed
morning, is expected to shift offshore by Wed afternoon and return
initially easterly, then southerly flow to the Carolinas Wed.
Initially, moisture return will be quite shallow with 70s dew points
in the morning mixing out into the 60s through the afternoon,
especially over the eastern Piedmont. Isolated to scattered
afternoon showers remain possible Wed, but likely organized around
the inland spreading seabreeze and the NC mountains, where southerly
flow and terrain circulations could provide surface forcing within
weakly unstable air mass.

Wed night into Fri: Continued sharpening of the slow-moving trough
axis to our west is expected with deep layer moisture returning to
near-normal values, but increasingly perturbed from upstream
convection. This will favor increasing cloud cover and
showers/storms possible along the track of any disturbance.
Destabilization will be a tricky forecast challenge and will likely
impact the coverage and intensity of showers/storms each day.
However, a favorable pattern for repeated rounds of heavy rain
appears possible in this window with the slow-moving and sharpening
trough to the east, persistent southwesterly moisture advection, and
saturated and perturbed lower/mid tropospheric flow. As a result,
excessive rain remains possible Thurs and perhaps more probable on
Fri as low-lvl convergence from an approaching front and enhanced
and stationary moisture transport persists over the Coastal Plain of
the Carolinas.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

Localized areas of IFR/LIFR fog will continue through around
daybreak across the southern Coastal Plain, just to the east of KFAY
and south of KRWI, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to continue
across central NC through the TAF period.

High pressure over the OH Valley is extending into central NC early
this morning with a modest surge of drier air moving into the
Piedmont from the northwest. Meanwhile, lingering low level moisture
has supported the development of fog in the southern Coastal Plain.
While the LIFR and IFR restrictions are likely to remain just
southeast of KFAY/KRWI a brief period of mainly MVFR VSBY
restrictions are possible through around daybreak at KFAY and KRWI.

Mainly clear skies are expected through the period with just a few
wisps of high cirrus clouds and possibly a few clouds at 5 to 8kft,
mainly tonight. Light north winds are expected today at 4 to to 8kts
although a brief hour or two of gusty winds are possible after
daybreak through mid morning as the nocturnal inversion mixes out.
Light to calm winds are expected tonight.

Outlook: Low and mid level moisture will begin to increase Tuesday
night and continue into the weekend as a southerly flow develops
across the region. This will support an increase in the chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms that will be the
greatest on Thursday and Friday. In addition, the risk of more
widespread late night and morning fog and stratus will return on
Wednesday and especially Thursday morning.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/Swiggett
AVIATION...Blaes