Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

162
FXUS62 KRAH 041752
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
152 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1255 AM Saturday...

*  Pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
   Sunday morning in the Piedmont. The associated cloudiness and
   showers will limit instability in the warm sector there Sunday.
   There still appears to be adequate instability for the
   development of scattered thunderstorms in the Coastal Plain and
   Sandhills, and possibly the eastern Piedmont Sunday afternoon.
   Marginal risk continues.

*  Frost/Freeze possible Tuesday night.

*  Potential elevated fire danger risk again this week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 631 AM Saturday...

1) Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday
ahead of a cold front. There continues to be a marginal risk of a
severe wind gust, especially if enough instability can develop in
the eastern Piedmont eastward to the coast Sunday afternoon.

2) Turning colder with below normal temperatures expected
early to middle of next week, with frost/freeze conditions possible
midweek.

3) A period of elevated fire danger is possible Tuesday through
Thursday next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1255 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are
expected Sunday ahead of a cold front. There continues to be a
marginal risk of a severe wind gust, especially if enough
instability can develop in the eastern Piedmont eastward to the
coast Sunday afternoon. QPF of 0.25 to locally 0.60.

It appears that a pre-frontal trough or convective outflow will
arrive as a boundary that produces showers and isolated
thunderstorms well ahead of the cold front Sunday morning. There is
adequate moisture return for a narrow window of 3-5 hours of much
needed rainfall with this event. To the east of the Triad region, a
Marginal Risk of severe still exists for the potential for isolated
strong to locally damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms Sunday
from late morning through the afternoon. The warm sector should be
characterized with dew points of 60-65 with temperatures in the
upper 70s to lower 80s (potentially). Thus Sbcape of up to 500 to
1000 j/kg expected mainly east of Raleigh. The big question will be
if the pre-frontal convection moves quickly through late morning
into the early afternoon stabilizing the region, and how far east
this stabilizing shower activity gets. New storms should develop
along the pre-frontal trough / convective outflow somewhere over the
NE-E Piedmont late morning and move eastward during the afternoon.
QPF of 0.25 to 0.60 appears to be the most likely outcome, with the
greater than 0.50 localized.

The front will move through later in the day with another narrow
convective line (likely not severe due to previous overturning) with
additional light QPF.

The front will clear the region Sunday night and this will set the
stage for colder week, with dry weather all week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Turning colder with below normal temperatures
expected early to middle of next week, with frost/freeze conditions
possible midweek.

An anomalously strong 1038 mb continental polar high over Wisconsin
and the Upper MS valley Tuesday will settle into the Mid-Atlantic
states midweek Wednesday, resulting in a favorable period of frost
or freeze conditions. The high is forecast to migrate off the New
England coast by Thursday, but its influence is expected to persist
into the early part of next weekend with east-southeasterly flow.
That should keep most of central NC dry through much of next week.
The coldest lows are forecast to still be Wednesday and Thursday
mornings, where low to mid 30s are favored, especially in the
typically cooler spots. The airmass is typical for what we usually
see in mid-February. The lowest values from the EPS statistical
guidance indicate some upper 20s to low 30s are possible,
particularly for areas along and north of US-64, where NBM
probabilities for 36F or lower are highest. Highs should generally
be below normal in the 60s around the middle of next week, with the
coolest values expected Wednesday. Gradual moderation of the airmass
should push highs back into the 70s by next Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A period of elevated fire danger is possible
Tuesday through Thursday next week

As the anomalously strong polar high builds down from the Great
Lakes Tuesday and settles to our northeast on Wednesday, there will
be the potential for elevated fire danger. With a tightened pressure
gradient as the high builds down into the region, gusts of 20-25 mph
are possible in the afternoons Tue and Wed. The flow will be likely
be NNW Tue and NNE Wed. Correspondingly, with precipitable water
values near the 10th percentile, the airmass will be quite dry, with
ensemble guidance suggesting upper 20s to low 30s dewpoints. With
highs in the 60s, that would easily support minimum RH values during
the day in the upper 20s to lower 30s percent. Depending on how much
rain we get Sunday with the front and how fast we can dry out, these
conditions would support a possible increased fire danger. These
conditions could persist into late-week with slow moisture recovery.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

This morning`s area of MVFR cumulus clouds have lifted to VFR. VFR
conditions should continue to prevail through the day today.
Southwesterly winds are expected to continue gusting to around 22kts
until around sunset, with a low end chance of a few showers in the
Triad this afternoon. Overnight, winds look to remain elevated at
the surface at around 8-12kts, with some gusts in excess of 18kts
remaining possible in the overnight period, reducing the risk of
LLWS. Additionally, MVFR to IFR ceilings will start to move into the
region late tonight, bringing flight restrictions to the Triad and
potentially RDU by sunrise. With these lower ceilings, continued
gusty winds and rain are expected as a cold front approaches and
starts to move through the region. Ceiling restrictions look to hold
off until around 18Z at FAY and RWI tomorrow.

Outlook: Flight restrictions from the cold front are expected to
continue through Sunday evening. VFR conditions should then prevail
Sunday night into next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 4:
KGSO: 87/2025
KRDU: 90/2025


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 5:
KFAY: 67/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Kren
AVIATION...LH
CLIMATE...RAH