Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

881
FXUS62 KRAH 310740
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather
through Friday. Low pressure will track east across the Carolinas
late in the week, bring rain chances Friday night through Saturday
night. Mild high pressure will return for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement in effect from 11 AM to 5 PM due
  to occasional gusts up to 15-25 mph and minimum RH values between
  25-35 percent.

* Seasonably cool temperatures and dry weather continue.

On the last day of 2025, the region should stay within a tight
pressure gradient as a low pressure system and shortwave energy pass
to our north and high pressure moves over the Gulf. Thus,
southwesterly winds look to gust to around 15-25 mph once again
Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, afternoon RH values will dip to
around 25-35%. After consulting with the NCFS, an Increased Fire
Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon due to the
weather conditions as well as very dry fuels.

Temperatures this afternoon look to reach the mid 40s in the
northeast to the low 50s in the south. This is still slightly (2 to
6 degrees) below normal for this time of year. Temperatures at
midnight look to be in the mid-to-upper 30s in the region with a
deck of cirrus clouds and light winds to ring in the new year! After
midnight, temperatures should continue to drop into the low-to-mid
30s, potentially into the upper 20s in isolated locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

* Near normal temperatures Thursday afternoon and dry weather
  expected to continue.

To start the new year, another shortwave trough looks to move to our
north with an associated backdoor cold front moving into the mid-
Atlantic. Models are still suggesting that the cooler air behind the
front will stay to our north on Thursday, keeping central NC dry
with moderating temperatures. Highs on Thursday look to reach the
upper 40s north to the mid to perhaps upper 50s in the south.
Winds also look to veer to northerly through the day, perhaps
gusting up to 15-25 mph Thursday afternoon, with the higher gusts
expected in the northeast. Temperatures overnight look to stay near
normal, dropping to around mid 20s in the northeast to low 30s in
the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

* Chance of rain Fri night through Sat night, with the greatest
  chances across the S.

* Apart from above-normal lows Fri night and again Mon night-Tue,
  temperatures should hold within a few degrees of normal.

The focus of the long term time window is the mid level shortwave
trough that will be move from the Four Corners region into TX/OK
Fri/Fri night before crossing the Mid South and Southeast states
with a positive tilt Sat/Sat night and pushing off the coast early
Sun. An associated and preceding surface low over the Red River
Valley early Fri is expected to track eastward along an initially
diffuse but sharpening frontal zone extending E across the Carolinas
through Sat night, its energy transferring to a secondary coastal
low just off the NC coast early Sun. Models and ensemble systems
have agreed fairly well on a precip shield ahead of and attending
this low, with preceding warm/moist air advection, but have varied a
bit with the rain shield`s northward extent. After a few runs that
suggested the rain will be largely confined to our far S and SE or
even held across SC, there appears to be a trend back a bit more to
the N. The NBM and LREF 25th percentile still keep the CWA dry, and
the GEFS mean shows little to no precip N of 64. However, the NBM
mean and other LREF component model cores still favor a good chance
of measurable rain, especially across the far S and SE. The forcing
for ascent is apt to be limited, so the storm total rainfall amounts
should be fairly light, ranging from a few hundredths near the VA
border to a quarter or third inch or so in the far S. Skies will
trend toward mostly cloudy to cloudy starting early Fri, then the
highest rain chances look to be from mid morning Sat through the
late afternoon, before exiting from the SE Sat night with clearing
skies NW to SE. Highs Fri and Sat should be within a few degrees of
normal, likely leaning above normal over the S half and near to
slightly below normal near the VA border, although if the low ends
up stronger and tracking S of the CWA, a stronger low level NNE flow
into central NC and evap cooling may result in cooler-than-forecast
highs Sat. Lows Fri night should be 1-2 categories above normal with
thick cloud cover.

After the shortwave trough and surface low move offshore Sat night,
a Canadian-source but modified surface high will build in from the
NW for Sun through Mon, yielding dry weather and generally fair
skies, although orographically enhanced high clouds are likely Sun
night into Mon morning in the fast WNW steering flow. We maintain
this mostly flat WNW flow aloft with slight backing into early next
week, keeping us more influence by Pacific than Arctic waves. Dry
weather should hold through Tue, although model output does favor a
broad wave moving through the Great Lakes region that could bring a
trend to mostly cloudy skies for Mon night and Tue. Expect above
normal temps Mon night and Tue, as low level thicknesses rise to 10-
20 m above normal. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will  prevail over the entirety of the 24 hour TAF
period. A deck of cirrus is currently dissipating over the region,
with light westerly to northwesterly winds at the surface, backing
to southwesterly overnight. Shortly after sunrise, gusty
southwesterly winds are expected at around 15-20kts, lasting until
around sunset. Tonight, expect a few hours of VFR ceilings from
another deck of cirrus which looks to move through the region.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Late Friday
into Saturday, a low pressure system may bring rain and associated
flight restrictions to the region, returning to VFR by Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement in effect from 11 AM to 5 PM.

After consulting with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger Statement
has been issued for Wednesday afternoon. Very dry fuels will combine
with low relative humidity values near 25 to 35 percent and wind
gusts of up to 15 to 25 mph to create dangerous fire weather
conditions for all of central NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...LH
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...LH
FIRE WEATHER...LH