Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXUS62 KRAH 021800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
100 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal zone will waver over VA today, then move south and across
central NC tonight. Low pressure will track across and offshore the
Southeast Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Friday...

* Above normal temperatures expected.

* Light rain chances return late Friday night.

Early this morning, a front which is located over central NC will
shift north as a warm front. The front is then expected to move
south through the region again late tonight ahead of an approaching
low pressure system from the southwest. This will allow temperatures
to rise above normal. Highs look to rise into the mid/upper 50s
north to the low 60s south. Overnight, temperatures look to bottom
out in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

High clouds are expecting to start overspreading the region this
morning, which will lower and thicken through the evening. As the
low pressure system starts to approach the region late tonight,
light rain looks to start moving into the western and especially the
southwestern portions of the region shortly before sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Friday...

* Cool and Soggy Conditions Saturday

A low-amplitude southern stream shortwave trough will progress
quickly across the Southeast Saturday, pushing offshore Saturday
night. An accompanying weak surface cyclone tracking across Georgia
and South Carolina will keep central NC in the cool, stable, NELY
low-level flow regime as weak high pressure wedges in from the
north. Light rain will overspread the area during the morning,
resulting in a cool and soggy conditions through much of the day.

A pronounced north-to-south temperature gradient is expected, with
highs across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain
struggling to reach upper 30s/near 40, while the Sandhills and
southern Piedmont/coastal plain warm to around 50 degrees.

Rain will taper off from west-east fashion during the evening and
overnight hours as the low exits and low-level cold air advection
ensues. Overnight lows will range from upper 20s  north to mid 30s.

Regarding rainfall amounts, there remains considerable  spread in
the ensemble guidance, particularly across the southern counties
where the difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles
approaches 1 inch. However, mean qpf amounts are settling between
0.25 to 0.50" across central NC, highest across the Sandhills and
southern Coastal Plain counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

* Unseasonably warm temperatures mid to late week with temperatures
  15-25 degrees above normal.

A broad shortwave trough will be working its way off the Southeast
coast and pivoting across the Northeast with deep uniformly
northwest to northerly flow across the Carolinas to begin the
period. Lingering low clouds may remain across portions of the
Piedmont, Sandhills, Coastal Plain early Sunday as the in-situ wedge
erodes through the early morning hours. By the afternoon, surface
high pressure building across the Ohio Valley combined with
downsloping northerly winds will likely usher in drier air with
minimum RH values of 25-45%. Winds should remain low enough to not
cause any widespread fire weather concerns.

Surface high pressure will shift offshore Mon evening and begin a
pattern of unseasonably warm temperatures, but dry, through the mid-
week period. Greater cloud coverage and a backdoor cold front
perhaps drifting into northeastern NC may keep temperatures slightly
cooler on Thurs. This front is expected to rapidly lift northward
back into VA as a warm front and likely bring highs greater than 20
degrees above normal on Fri. A plume of anomalous moisture leaking
across the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlanic Fri may be
lifted through weak WAA and bring locally thicker clouds and perhaps
some light rain, primarily to the Piedmont, on Fri. This may cut
into temperatures a bit (5 to 10 degrees cooler) compared to the
latest forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

VFR conditions should prevail for the 24 hour TAF period. High
clouds will thicken over the region and lower through the day, but
stay VFR. This afternoon there could be a few sporadic gusts but
look to stay under 16kts. MVFR ceilings and light rain may reach the
Triad terminals and/or FAY by 12Z. However, flight restrictions look
to hold off until around or just after 12Z.

Outlook: A low pressure system will track south of central NC on
Saturday, bringing widespread rain and potentially IFR to LIFR
flight restrictions. VFR conditions will return Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...LH