Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

527
FXUS62 KRAH 300524
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
124 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lesser shower chances in the south today, nothing expected north.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 105 AM Saturday...

1) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected mainly
south of Charlotte to Fayetteville today. Drier air will be punching
in from the north during the day keeping rain chances low north.

2) A mainly dry and cooler period will follow from Saturday evening
into Thursday, other than Monday when a cold front brings a chance
of showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 115 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered and isolated thunderstorms expected mainly
south of Charlotte to Fayetteville today. Drier air will be punching
in from the north during the day keeping rain chances low north.

The main synoptic front extended from central KY SE across southern
NC and offshore this morning. The anomalous mid/upper ridging
remained in place from MN to NC, with low pressure over the NE and
higher pressure near the Gulf Coast. Central NC remains on the dry
side of the upper ridging with the deepest moisture remaining from
TN SE across SC into far SE NC. The boundary will try to move a bit
this morning into southern NC, but a quick moving wave of low
pressure will move from the TN Valley currently to far SE NC by late
morning. This will pull the front back southward to the NC/SC
boarder region around 18z, then on to the south and southeast across
SC thereafter. This will keep the better shower chances from
Charlotte to Fayetteville this morning. Then the better chances will
shift south and away from our southern counties between 18z and 22z.
This is favored by most guidance including the latest hi-res
modeling. Unfortunately for those that need rainfall, the QPF
appears to be 0.25 or less in the south with some local 0.50 to
possibly 1 inch localized amounts near the NC/SC border region. To
the north of Charlotte and Fayetteville, some lighter showers are
possible, but QFP will be 0.1 or lower with nothing expected over
the Triad and Triangle northward.

It will also be warmer today as the drier air comes in this
afternoon dropping dew points into the 40s/50s in all but the far
south between 18z and 00z/tonight. Highs may reach or exceed 85 for
much of the northern and eastern zones depending on the thickness of
the high cloudiness.

Some clearing is expected from the north and east tonight as the
higher pressure to the north builds in. Winds will be gusty with the
backdoor front within a few hours of sunset, with gusts to 20-25 mph
expected. Lows tonight will dip into the lower 50s NE ranging to
near 60 SE. Skies will average mostly cloudy with plenty of
lingering mid/high clouds that will get pushed southward late
tonight.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A mainly dry and cooler period will follow from
Saturday evening into Thursday, other than Monday when a cold front
brings a chance of showers and storms.

A deepening surface low tracking east of New England will drop a
backdoor cold front SW into central NC on Saturday evening, putting
an end to any precipitation chances as cool dry air overspreads the
region. Lows will drop into the lower-to-mid-50s. A mostly dry
period is then expected from Sunday into Friday as a classic omega-
blocking pattern sets up, with mid/upper troughing over the Western
US and Canadian Maritimes and ridging in between over the Central US
and Canada. We will be largely under the influence of NW flow aloft
on the backside of the North Atlantic trough.

The one exception to the dryness is Monday when an upper disturbance
and weak cold front move through central NC. However, moisture and
instability still look fairly limited, with 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE
and PW values about 100-125% of normal. Based on the latest
GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensemble means, most places should receive less than
half an inch, but the 90th percentile ensemble QPF indicates
isolated amounts around 1" can`t be ruled out in the SE.

A strengthening shortwave rotating around the North Atlantic trough
will pass through the eastern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, but the air
mass will be so dry by this point that only an isolated shower or
sprinkle is possible at best in eastern zones. It will then deepen
into a cyclone that stays well offshore in the Atlantic.

As for temperatures, they will turn cooler than normal on Sunday
with highs in the upper-70s as a piece of the Canadian high moves
overhead. We will moderate slightly Monday through Wednesday as the
high shifts offshore, with highs in the upper-70s to lower-80s and
lows in the mid-to-upper-50s. Temperatures will begin to warm back
above normal late week as the low-level flow turns southerly and
North Atlantic troughing finally pushes east, with highs in the mid-
to-upper-80s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 124 AM Saturday...

A front will bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
with MVFR conditions, mainly from KCLT to KFAY southward today.
Otherwise, a backdoor cold front will progress across the Middle
Atlantic and through cntl NC Sat late today and this evening, when
NE surface winds may gust between 20-25 kts. Otherwise, generally
VFR cigs will continue today and tonight.

Outlook: Another frontal system will affect cntl NC with a chance
of flight restrictions and showers/storms on Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Danco
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS