Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

511
FXUS62 KRAH 161037
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
637 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

1) A Heat Advisory remains in effort today for parts of the Triangle
and south-central NC.

2) A Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms across the
northern half of central NC today. Damaging winds are the primary
threat.

3) Hot Mon, but not as humid, with a chance of afternoon and evening
storms that warrant mostly a Marginal risk of downburst wind in cntl
NC

4) Heat gradually wanes through the week, with a high chance to
likely probability of rain/convection Fri-Sat

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Heat Advisory remains in effort today for parts
of the Triangle and south-central NC.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect today for parts of the Triangle
and south-central NC. Strong heating and high dew points will push
heat index values to around 103107F across much of the southern
half of central NC and the Triangle, with locally higher values
possible due to urban heat island effects. Areas of low stratus this
morning could limit heating somewhat, introducing some uncertainty,
but highs should still reach well into the 90s with dew points
remaining in the low to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe
thunderstorms across the northern half of central NC today. Damaging
winds are the primary threat.

A Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms today across
northern areas. The two main focus areas will include the sea
breeze, and along outflows drifting southward into our northern
zones later today from earlier activity moving across VA.  High
precipitable water values near 2 inches and moderate to high
instability (SBCAPE 15003000 J/kg) will support scattered
thunderstorms, but modest lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear will
limit storm organization. Damaging winds from water-loaded
downdrafts remain the primary threat through mid-evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Hot Mon, but not as humid, with a chance of
afternoon and evening storms that warrant mostly a Marginal risk of
downburst wind in cntl NC

A strong sub-tropical ridge centered over the lwr MS Valley in
00Z/16th 500-700 mb data will weaken while retrograding into the srn
Plains through Mon. It will do so as a lead synoptic trough
progresses across ern Canada and a deep cyclone digs along the wrn
shore of Hudson Bay, and a series of three MCVs evident in regional
radar data this morning from OH, nrn IL, and wrn KS progress ewd to
esewd across the Middle Atlantic. The last of those MCVS is forecast
to progress across the lwr OH Valley and cntl Appalachians Mon, then
across the srn Middle Atlantic Mon evening-night. Net, 60-80 meter
mid-level height falls will have resulted over cntl NC by Mon, after
peaking last evening (at 00Z/16th).

At the surface, an Appalachian-lee trough will extend across the srn
Middle Atlantic Piedmont on Mon, then probably be overtaken by a
surface cold front that will progress across the Middle Atlantic,
Carolinas, and TN Valley through early Tue.

While cntl NC will be solidly in the warm sector on Mon, where
temperatures will be well into the 90s, to near 100 F over the
Sandhills, surface dewpoints are likely to mix out into the upr 60s
to lwr 70s during the afternoon. 36-48 hour back trajectories valid
Mon afternoon originate where mean mixing ratios of 13-16 g/kg were
present on 00Z/16th RAOBS at JAN, BMX, and BNA and where surface
dewpoints were in the mid 60s to lwr 70s F Sat afternoon (versus the
17-19 g/kg mean mixing ratio values observed along the stationary
front and axis of moisture pooling at GSO/MHX). As such, forecast
heat index values Mon are generally 100-109 F (Advisory criteria for
roughly all but the nrn Piedmont). In addition to the lower
dewpoints and humidity values compared to recent days, wly mixed
layer wind forecasts in the teens kts will probably yield a wly
breeze that will gust to near 20 mph and which may provide some
relief from the otherwise hot temperatures.

Clusters of storms will probably result immediately downstream of
the approaching MCV and across the Appalachians, with initially
widely-scattered cells possible along the lee trough. While there is
some risk for the upstream clusters to propagate ewd across the
Piedmont amid 20-30 kts of 700 mb flow, uncertainties surrounding
both its coverage and possibly late diurnal timing (mostly during
the evening) suggest severe wind risk may ultimately be of the
Marginal variety in cntl NC.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Heat gradually wanes through the week, with a high
chance to likely probability of rain/convection Fri-Sat

The sub-tropical ridge will further retrograde into the Southwest
through the week, while a broad trough will become established
across much of the ern US. Related falling heights and increasingly
moist, swly flow aloft downstream of the trough will favor both less
hot temperatures and also a high chance to likely probability of
rain/convection by Fri-Sat, after a dry mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 637 AM Sunday...

Through 12Z Mon: Local IFR flight conditions with stratus or fog
ongoing attm across central NC will see slow rise in cigs to VFR
later this morning. VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and
evening with the exception of invof scattered showers/storms after
20Z today, with highest confidence around RDU/RWI between 21z and
03z.

After 12z Mon, scattered late-day showers and storms are possible
again Mon, with the better chances then shifting to just south and
southeast areas for Tue-Thu. Outside of storms, generally VFR
conditions are expected, although a few hours of patchy early-
morning sub-VFR fog/stratus may occur each day, with the highest
chances in areas that see rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:
August 17: KRDU: 99/1997 KFAY: 104/1954
August 18: KFAY: 98/1988

Record High Minimum Temperatures:
August 16: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 76/2007 KFAY: 78/2005
August 17: KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 76/2024 KFAY: 78/2007
August 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT today for NCZ025-040>042-
073>077-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np/MWS
AVIATION...np