Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

170
FXUS62 KRAH 151043
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
545 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

* No significant changes to the incoming storm system. Confidence
  remains high in a steady soaking rain areawide, as well as in a
  wide range of high temps today, from the mid-upper 40s NW to the
  low 60s SE.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

1) Confidence remains high in steady soaking and beneficial rainfall
today through tonight, with the highest rain totals expected to be
over the Piedmont. Isolated minor street flooding remains possible.

2) Temperatures climbing above normal Tuesday through Friday with
mostly dry weather this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence remains high in steady soaking and
beneficial rainfall today through tonight, with the highest rain
totals expected to be over the Piedmont. Isolated minor street
flooding remains possible.

Synoptic overview: An in situ cold air damming/wedge event is likely
today. An amplified mid level shortwave trough and low will shift E
over the lower Miss Valley and Gulf states today, before reaching
the Southeast/Carolinas this evening then pushing E off the Carolina
coast as an open wave late tonight. At the surface, models agree on
a primary low tracking from AR to GA, where it begins to fill as it
crosses through GA this afternoon. A secondary low is expected to
develop on the CAD/wedge front over NE SC or SE NC late this
afternoon, as the front slowly retreats NW into SE portions of
central NC. This secondary low will then track NE over coastal NC
and off the NC coast, where it will deepen further and drag the
wedge front back SE.

Rainfall: Latest model output continues to support a solid area of
rain spreading W to E across the area, with forcing for ascent
fueled in part by mid level height falls, vigorous upper divergence,
and strong/deep moist upglide at 285K-310K. A band of weaker, more
shallow, and elevated upglide will lift NE through mainly the
Piedmont from now through mid morning, generating spotty light rain,
especially over the Triad. Moisture and upglide then deepen by late
morning, with PW still likely to be 225-250% of normal as a plume of
high integrated vapor transport spreads from the Gulf NE into NC.
Steady rain is expected to peak areawide this afternoon and evening,
before a W-to-E departure late tonight, perhaps lasting into very
early Mon morning in the E Coastal Plain. Storm total rainfall is
still expected to be generally around 1 to 1.5", with the higher
totals over the Piedmont where the HREF has a 50%-75% chance of a
storm total rainfall over 1.25", and even 25%-50% chance of more
than 1.5" from Albemarle NE toward Hillsborough. Given our current
severe to extreme drought conditions and limited rainfall across the
area lately, this rain will be largely welcome and beneficial. But
brief heavier rain rates over more urban or poor drainage areas
could still lead to isolated areas of street flooding.

Where this forecast could deviate: While confidence is high that the
Piedmont will see decent rainfall totals, there is a chance that
more organized convection tracking eastward to our S and SE, across
GA/SC and perhaps far SE NC, could rob the better moisture transport
into our S and E sections and result in a slight reduction in
expected rainfall amounts S and E of the Triangle.

Temps: With confidence high that we`ll be in an in situ CAD event,
we continue to favor highs a bit lower than most guidance in the NW
CWA. Expect a range from the mid-upper 40s in the NW and near the VA
border, to the low 60s SE, with a tight gradient in between. -GIH


KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures climbing above normal Tuesday through
Friday with mostly dry weather this week.

A mid-level ridge will build over the Southeast States Tuesday and
Wednesday and persist through the late-week period prior to the next
trough and sfc front which are progged to move across our region on
Friday night and Saturday. This pattern will result in dry weather
with above-normal temps, as H8 temps climb to 10-12+ C above normal
by Friday. Consequently, afternoon highs in the 60s on Tuesday and
mid-60s to lower-70s on Wednesday will further increase to the 70s
for Thursday and Friday, while low temps in the mid-40s to mid-50s
are expected as well each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 545 AM Sunday...

As a strong storm system crosses the region, confidence is high
in deteriorating aviation conditions from W to E today, starting
later this morning. Current VFR conditions across central NC bkn-ovc
VFR clouds but no vsby restrictions. Patches of light rain are
currently passing through the area, but VFR conditions will remain
dominant during this time. Lowering cloud bases and more steady and
heavier rain will spread E through central NC starting around 16z,
with cigs/vsbys dropping quickly to MVFR then to IFR. IFR/LIFR
conditions should be dominant starting 17z at INT/GSO, 18z or 19z at
RDU/FAY, and 20z or 21z at RWI. IFR/LIFR conditions will last
through the end of the TAF valid period over RDU/RWI/FAY, but
INT/GSO may trend to MVFR or VFR after 09z. Light surface winds from
the S or SSW currently will trend to be from the E or NE at 6-12 kts
by afternoon, then from the NE or N after 02z. A period of
borderline low level wind shear can`t be ruled out from late
afternoon through the evening mainly in the SE (FAY) due to a low
level jet from the S at 30-40 kt, but confidence is not high, and
will omit for now.

Outlook beyond 12z Mon: A trend to VFR conditions is expected at all
sites by 15z. VFR conditions are then likely to dominate from Mon
afternoon through Thu. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/NP/JD
AVIATION...Hartfield