Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

561
FXUS62 KRAH 241751
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
151 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement in effect for Saturday for
  portions of central NC

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 151 PM Friday...

1) Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday, with a
noticeable cooldown thereafter. Increased Fire Danger Statement in
effect for portions of central NC on Saturday.

2) Rain chances remain in place for Saturday afternoon into Sunday ,
although rainfall amounts still appear to be light and not enough to
mitigate the ongoing drought concerns.

3) Frequency of rain events increases Wed through the forecast
period, but low forecast confidence on timing and amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 151 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Well above normal temperatures continue through
Saturday, with a noticeable cooldown thereafter into early next
week. Increased Fire Danger Statement in effect for portions of
central NC on Saturday.

Broad mid level ridging across the southeastern CONUS, along the the
presence of a stalled frontal boundary across the Mid Atlantic, will
allow for above normal temperatures across the region through
Saturday. Afternoon highs today remain on track to reach the
mid/upper 80s, with some spots in the Sandhills and southern Coastal
Plain taking a run at 90 late this afternoon.

The stalled boundary to our north will slowly sag south tomorrow,
yielding another day of well above normal temperatures in the
mid/upper 80s, perhaps around 90 in the south. Pre-frontal
breeziness and deep BL mixing will allow dewpoints to mix during the
afternoon hours, with RH values dropping to around 25-30 percent.
Winds will be strongest across the Sandhills and southern Coastal
Plain which will be co-located with the lowest RH values. As such,
an Increased Fire Danger Statement will be in place for those areas
from late morning through early evening Saturday.

The front itself is not forecast to make its way through central NC
until late Saturday night/Sunday morning, after which point cooler
northeasterly flow will take hold over the area. Look for highs on
Sunday to only reach the mid 60s in the northern Coastal Plain,
while holding strong in the mid/upper 70s in the southwest
Sandhills.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances remain in place for Saturday afternoon
into Sunday, although rainfall amounts still appear to be light and
not enough to mitigate the ongoing drought concerns.

The cold front that will usher in much cooler temperatures on Sunday
is forecast to move through central NC late Saturday into Sunday
morning. While there are certainly several ingredients coming into
play that will bring us some much needed rainfall, they could be
better. A modest amount of moisture advection will take place ahead
of this front with PW`s climbing to around 1.55" (well above normal
for late April), although much of that advection will take place
above the boundary layer as dewpoints will only make it into the
lower 60s. In addition, the timing of the frontal passage will be
well after peak heating and instability will be lacking at the time
of FROPA. An area of pre-frontal showers appears likely from early
afternoon onward across the western Piedmont as a weak pre-frontal
shortwave sweeps through the area, with rain chances eventually
increasing elsewhere by mid afternoon/early evening coincident with
the frontal passage itself. While PoPs will be quite high (80-90
percent), QPF looks to remain low for the reasons outlined earlier.
HREF LPMM suggests some spots could see anywhere from a quarter to
half an inch, perhaps higher if a bit of training occurs, but this
does not appear to be a widespread beneficial drought-ending rain
event by any stretch of the imagination. Rainfall likely to linger
through the overnight hours into early Sunday before tapering off
from west to east Sunday afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Frequency of rain events increases Wed through the
forecast period, but low forecast confidence on timing and amounts.

Precipitation chances continue to trend down for Tues as models are
trending stronger with the ridge axis in place ahead of perturbed
flow and narrow mid-level moisture axis that spreads into the Mid-
Atlantic on Tues. This initial wave does however work to begin
breaking down the ridge into a quasi-zonal flow regime and near-
normal PWAT values.

Waves of perturbed flow will ripple across the Southeast and Mid-
Atlantic Wed through the forecast period with each bringing the
potential for much needed rainfall; although, none look to bring any
significant rainfall to the region. Behind a warm frontal passage
Tues into Wed, marginal instability may be in place to help fuel
diurnal showers/storms each afternoon. Unfortunately, outside of any
organization along any upstream MVC`s, this may result in more hit-
or-miss variety within the rainfall footprint.

There may be some hope for a more appreciable precipitation event
just beyond the forecast period into early May. There is a signal
within ensemble guidance for a stalling frontal boundary over the
Mid-Atlantic and weak low pressure spreading more steady rainfall
along and north of its track. Member MSLP tracks range from the
through the Ohio Valley to over the Carolinas, so forecast
confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions over the next 24
hours. Gusts so far today have been more isolated than forecast, so
lowered the wind speed during the day and decided to go with a
single line in the forecast, not differentiating between the lower
wind speed overnight. Some mid level clouds may make it from the
mountains to INT/GSO, otherwise a thin layer of high clouds is all
that is expected.

Outlook: VFR conditions are likely to continue Saturday afternoon,
but restrictions are expected to develop with showers and isolated
thunderstorms as a cold front moves through central North Carolina
Saturday night. IFR ceilings will be possible at all sites (with FAY
the least likely) late Saturday night into Sunday morning, with a
return to VFR conditions Sunday afternoon as rain moves east. Some
model guidance indicates wind gusts could be as high as 20-25 kt
late Saturday afternoon as the cold front moves through. Another
round of showers and restrictions will be possible with an
additional front on Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins/Swiggett
AVIATION...Green