Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

327
FXUS62 KRAH 051106
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
606 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM for portions of the
  eastern Peidmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain of NC.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 345 AM Thursday...

1) Shallow and isolated convection brings negligible rain amounts
today, with shower and storm chances and coverage increasing tonight.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday within a pre-
frontal moist axis over cntl NC, with a Marginal risk of a few
severe storms in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain midday through
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 345 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Shallow and isolated convection brings negligible
rain amounts today, with shower and storm chances and coverage
increasing tonight.

Aloft, the shortwave responsible for the rain currently across the
wrn Piedmont, should lift nnewd out of the area this morning, while
the positively tilted trough axis sharpens as it approaches from the
west. While one s/w embedded in the trough is expected to weaken as
it moves ewd across the cntl Plains and into the mid-MS Valley today
and tonight, a pair of nrn stream shortwaves will interact over the
Great Lakes, forming a closed low over the Great Lakes by Fri morn.
At the surface, the ridge axis extending wwd into the region from a
high north of Bermuda will get shunted to the ese, along the
Southeast US and mid-Atlantic coasts tonight as a cold front
approaches and moves into the area from the west. Expect increased
advection of warm, moist air, from both the Gulf ahead of the front
approaching from the west and from the Atlantic in return flow
around the high north of Bermuda.

Aside from perhaps a weak mid-level disturbance lifting into the
area later this aft/eve, there will be a lack in mid/upr level
forcing for convection today, however forecast soundings off the
HRRR and RAP do show SBCAPE increasing to 500-1200 J/Kg (highest
over the wrn Piedmont) through the day and into the evening. While
an isolated shower or storm is possible today, duration and
intensity may be limited. Chances, coverage, and intensity should
increase tonight.

Temperature forecast is a bit challenging in the west, dependent
upon cloud cover and rainfall, but with sly flow advecting
relatively warm air into the area, still expect well above normal
temperatures. Highs ranging from low/mid 70s NW to low/mid 80s SE
and lows tonight in the low to mid 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday
within a pre-frontal moist axis over cntl NC, with a Marginal risk
of a few severe storms in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain midday
through afternoon.

GOES-E water vapor satellite data indicate a mid/upr-level cyclone
now over the CO/NM border and vicinity may already be in the process
of shearing and deamplifying ewd across the cntl and srn High Plains
this morning; and the models indicate it will further do so and
become an open wave trough by the time it reaches the Mid-South by
12Z Fri. That feature is then forecast to rapidly lift newd and
across the OH and TN Valleys and Middle Atlantic through Fri night.
Related modest, 40-60 meter 500 mb height falls, and 40-50 kts of
swly 500 mb flow, will overspread cntl NC on Fri, as the strongest
flow and forcing for ascent otherwise pass just to the northwest and
along or in the immediate lee of the cntl Appalachians.

At the surface, a lead, srn stream cold front was evident in surface
observational and radar data this morning across nwrn GA, e-cntl
through s-cntl AL, and the far wrn FL panhandle. It stretched swwd
from a ~1011 mb triple point-like wave over nrn GA (where MRMS data
indicate almost 8" of rain fell and necessitated an earlier Flash
Flood Emergency over Gilmer and Fanin Co.). That frontal wave and
inflection point in surface theta-e was preceded by a maritime
Tropical warm front that stretched sewd invof the Savannah Basin,
along a confluence axis and near the 67-68F isodrosotherms.
Continued sely through sly flow across the Carolinas will cause the
warm front to effectively retreat nwwd and into the srn
Appalachians, with a related moist sector characterized by mostly
mid 60s F (to locally 67-68 F surface dewpoints) that will
overspread cntl NC through 12Z Fri. Meanwhile, a nrn stream cold
front arced from a ~996 mb cyclone over Lk Superior swd and across
Lk Erie and OH. While this front will make steady ewd progress
across the nrn Middle Atlantic, it will slow as it progresses into
the Blue Ridge later tonight. The front, or at least an effective
one that will likely serve as the wrn bound of the pre-frontal moist
and instability axis, with developing nwly flow and dry air
advection behind it, will then move ewd and across cntl and ern NC
through the day Fri. This effective front may become strengthened by
diabatic cooling and outflow from waves of convection tracking along
and just behind it through the morning to midday hours, which at
this time appears favored over the Piedmont. REFS members are in
relatively good agreement regarding the development of deeper
convection along or just ahead of the effective front as it
progresses through the Sandhills and Coastal Plain during the
afternoon.

The aforementioned strengthening of the swly flow aloft, with
effective shear up to 40-45 kts and with elongated forecast
hodographs that display gentle clockwise curvature early in the day
to counter-clockwise curvature in the mid-levels by afternoon, will
support a risk of splitting cells capable of strong to locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail initially. Depending upon
how strongly and quickly the post-frontal diabatic cooling
strengthens the front, convection may assume an increasingly linear
mode as it moves out of cntl NC and toward the coast by evening.

Rainfall amounts will likely be widely variable given the convective
nature of the precipitation. While the official forecast is for a
broad area of a half to three quarters inch of basin average storm
total rain (INT has already received 0.42"), there will likely be
swaths of twice that where heavier convection develops and tracks,
surrounded by half or less. In other words, some, but probably not
all, will benefit from the rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 AM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Fairly high confidence in flight restrictions at
all terminals by daybreak Thu (lowest confidence at KFAY), with sub-
VFR cigs gradually lifting from E to W, bu possibly lingering
through the aft/eve at the western sites (KINT/KGSO). An axis of
showers newd moving showers should slowly move ewd across the Triad
toward the Triangle over the next several hours, decreasing in
coverage and intensity with ewd extent. KRDU could see some light
rain later tonight, but confidence is lower there. Some patchy,
intermittent LIFR fog as already occurred at KRWI, with IFR/LIFR
fog/stratus expected at KRWI and KFAY through daybreak. Sly to ssely
winds should increase to 5-10 kts after daybreak Thu, with gusts
mainly in the teens during the day.

Outlook: Another round of IFR/LIFR ceilings is forecast tonight into
Friday. A cold front will bring rain to all terminals, primarily on
Friday. Once rain comes to an end Friday night, dry VFR conditions
are forecast for the rest of the time period.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

November 4:
KGSO: 83/1946
KRDU: 84/1946
KFAY: 86/1974

November 5:
KGSO: 82/1914
KRDU: 85/2003
KFAY: 86/2003

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5:
KGSO: 65/2003
KRDU: 66/1977
KFAY: 67/2003

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ025>028-
040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10/MWS
AVIATION...10/Green