Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

765
FXUS62 KRAH 131832
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 130 PM Friday...

* Confidence has continued to increase in a widespread light to
  moderate rain lasting Sunday through early Monday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM Friday...

1) A beneficial steady light to moderate rain is still expected
mainly through the day on Sunday and into Monday morning. Very
isolated urban flooding may still be possible.

2) Above-average temperatures are expected Tuesday through Friday,
with little to no rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A beneficial steady light to moderate rain is still
expected mainly through the day on Sunday and into Monday morning.
Very isolated urban flooding may still be possible.

A deep low pressure system is still expected to move south of the
region on Sunday as another low forms and strengthens just off the
NC coast, bringing a round of beneficial rain to central NC. As we
continue to get closer to the event and get into the timeframe for
higher resolution models, the starting time of rain looks to be a
little later than previously thought, starting Sunday morning
instead of Saturday night. As the system moves eastward and the
secondary low strengthens off the coast, the end time of rain in the
east appears more likely to be early Monday morning. However, some
ensemble runs are still showing light rain in the east through the
afternoon on Monday, but the probability of this is decreasing.

Rainfall amounts have decreased slightly in the latest ensemble
runs. The highest rainfall totals are still expected in the northern
Piedmont, where the 50th percentile of the LREF is showing 1-1.2
inches of rain by Monday night, at the same time around 0.9-1 inch
of rain is generally shown in the southern Coastal Plain, Sandhills,
and southern Piedmont. Probabilities of over 1 inch of rain in the
Triad and northern Piedmont are generally around 60-70%, with
probabilities around 30-50% in the south and east. These
probabilities have generally stayed the same in the northern
Piedmont and decreased in the south since yesterday. Due to ongoing
drought conditions and the overall stratiform nature of the system,
flood risk will be overall low. However, some localized urban
flooding may be possible where heavier pockets of rain are able to
fall.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Above-average temperatures are expected Tuesday
through Friday, with little to no rain chances.

Surface high over the region Tuesday will shift south Wednesday and
offshore by Thursday. While the forecast remains mostly  dry through
the rest of the week, there is a weak frontal boundary that could
lift across the region Wednesday. At this time there is low
confidence for any measurable rainfall, expect a few sprinkles if
anything. As the boundary shifts across the area, south-
southwesterly wind will pick up a tad in the afternoon Wednesday
with occasional gusts up to 20mph. Tuesday afternoon through Friday
skies will be mostly cloudy, with temperatures ranging from the 60s
on Tuesday to low/mid 70s Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the 24-hr TAF period. Light and variable winds are also
expected, perhaps going calm overnight. Some high clouds are
expected to spread across the area Sat morn-aft, with winds becoming
wly to swly around 5 kts.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions expected early Sun through Sun night/Mon
morn, with rain and periods of gusts into the teens. VFR conditions
should return late Mon, with gusts continuing through the day and
tapering off by Mon night. Otherwise expect dry weather and VFR
conditions to prevail.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LH/CA
AVIATION...KC