Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

224
FXUS62 KRAH 030607
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
107 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1240 PM Monday...

* Friday is trending warmer and drier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1240 PM Monday...

1) Pockets of light rain or drizzle into tonight and early Tuesday,
mainly across the northern and northwest Piedmont.

2) Slight chance for isolated showers and storms Sunday into
Monday.

3) Well-above normal temperatures and near record breaking warmth
expected late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1240 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Pockets of light rain or drizzle into tonight and
early Tuesday, mainly across the northern and northwest Piedmont.

A 1038 mb Arctic high to our northeast will continue to nose down
into the area in a mainly dry CAD scenario for the rest of today. As
the high shifts offshore tonight, it will transition to a hybrid
style CAD setup. Northeast flow will be prevalent today through
tonight, along with areas of low stratus. A mid-level system
tracking mainly north of the region this afternoon and tonight will
bring some pockets of light rain and/or drizzle. Much of this rain
activity will be located north of US-64 across the northern and
northwest Piedmont. The 12z CAM solutions continue the northward
shift in expected rainfall. A tenth of an inch or less of rain is
expected over the Triad over towards Roxboro to Roanoke Rapids, with
just a few hundredths of an inch of rain for other areas. A trace or
less of rain is possible across the south in the Sandhills to
southern Coastal Plain.

Weak upslope in the east-southeast flow at low-levels will favor
some pockets of drizzle over the NW Piedmont overnight tonight as
the stratus layer continues to lower by Tue morning. Lows should
hover in the upper 30s N to low 40s S.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Slight chance for isolated showers and storms
Sunday into Monday.

The next precipitation chance is expected to arrive Sunday as a
frontal boundary approaches the Mid-Atlantic. Ensemble guidance
suggests a low to moderate chance of measurable precipitation across
central NC, with considerable spread in timing and coverage tied to
frontal passage. Most members favor isolated to scattered showers,
with higher PoPs possible across the northern and western Piedmont
if the boundary slows along the Appalachians. For now, the highest
PoPs are focused Sunday afternoon and evening as the front attempts
to move through the region. Latest model guidance shows a slightly
slower arrival time of the rain for Sunday, therefore if this
continues we could see a drier Sunday and wetter Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Well-above normal temperatures and near record
breaking warmth expected late week into the weekend.

As surface high pressure shifts offshore Wednesday, weak upper-level
ridging will maintain warm southerly flow across the region. High
temperatures Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 70s, with dew
points generally in the 50s. On Thursday, warm southerly flow will
increase and dewpoints will reach the low 60s. All of Central NC
will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. By Friday, temperatures and dew
points will increase ahead of a frontal boundary stretching across
the Mississippi Valley. Highs are expected to run 1525 degrees
above normal Friday and 1520 degrees above normal Saturday, with
highs nearing record values in the low 80s (see climate section
below).

As the front passes through the region early next, temperatures will
trend slightly cooler but remain well above normal, with highs
ranging from the mid to upper 70s (some areas will still be in the
80s on Monday) which will be around 1020 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 AM Tuesday...

Moist, nely flow at the surface, and gentle lift just above the
surface, will favor a continued lowering of ceilings into LIFR-IFR
range this morning, except low MVFR to IFR at FAY. Periods of light
rain/drizzle and mist will also be possible, especially at INT and
GSO, where the aforementioned lift will be maximized and ceilings
will probably be lowest. Ceilings will only slowly lift into and
through MVFR today, relatively quickest and with probable afternoon
scattering to VFR at FAY and RWI. MVFR ceilings may meanwhile linger
until late afternoon or early evening over the Piedmont. Scattering/
clearing will then favor radiational cooling of a residually cool
surface layer that will have been sheltered (by the lingering
clouds) from stronger daytime heating, such that areas of fog and
low stratus will probably redevelop overnight-Wed morning, most
likely at RWI and FAY.

Outlook: Stratus and/or fog will be favored at ern sites (ie. FAY
and RWI) each morning through the rest of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/Kren
AVIATION...MWS