Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS62 KRAH 270728
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

1) Convective coverage this afternoon and evening should be less
than previous days. Showers and storms will be favored across the
Coastal Plain and across northern and western areas including the
Triad and Triangle.

2) A wavy frontal zone will bring a chance for showers/storms
Thursday into Saturday to the Carolinas.

3) Lower forecast confidence Sun into early next week, although a
transition to limited rain chances and below normal temperatures
appears likely.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Convective coverage this afternoon and evening
should be less than previous days. Showers and storms will be
favored across the Coastal Plain and across northern and western
areas including the Triad and Triangle.

The persistent south and southwesterly mid and upper flow across the
region over the past several days will shift to more westerly this
afternoon and tonight. This will aid in shifting the deepest
moisture slightly south and southeast of central NC this afternoon
and evening. The airmass across central NC will remain moist with PW
values ranging from 130 to 150% of normal and surface dewpoints
mainly in the lower 70s with some upper 60s. This will be sufficient
to support at least scattered convection.

While a rogue shower is possible this morning, most of central NC
will be dry with widespread stratus clouds early this morning
lifting and giving way to a mix of clouds and sun toward midday.
Expect two locations to be favored for storm today. First, scattered
showers and storms are expected to develop during the early to mid
afternoon hours from the Coastal Plain eastward in a region of
moderate instability supported by a maximum in surface dew points in
the lower to mid 70s. A weak shear axis aloft, differential heating
resulting from a few more intervals of sunshine and some local
convergence should initiate the storms. Another area favored for
storms is expected during the mid and especially late afternoon
hours when a broken band of storms moving southeast from the NC
mountains and southern VA moves into the Triad and Triangle late
this afternoon and early evening. While the instability will be a
little less than in locations to the southeast, stronger mid level
flow and 0-6km shear values of 25+ kts could result in a few
stronger storms. These storms could form a more linear structure and
clusters with a primary risk of damaging wind gusts. The convection
should diminish earlier in the evening than previous nights with
mainly fairly weather expected by late evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A wavy frontal zone will bring a chance for
showers/storms Thursday into Saturday to the Carolinas.

A high-latitude omega-blocking pattern will begin to take shape on
Thurs with a highly anomalous and persistent mid/upper-lvl ridge
extending into central Canada which will be bookended by a pair of
mid/upper-lvl lows over CA and the Canadian maritimes. This stagnant
pattern will favor a series of shortwaves to lock-in mean troughing
over the Northeast and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast potentially
through Tues. At the surface, an area of low pressure will gradually
deepen over the Canadian maritimes and push a weak backdoor cold
front (mainly a moisture boundary and wind shift) into the area
Thurs.

By early afternoon, latest suite of 00z hi-res models suggest this
boundary will be draped around or just south of the NC/SC border
with 70+ degree dewpoints to its south. Temperatures in the 80s to
around 90 degrees combined with this enhanced low-lvl moisture will
support moderate instability for scattered to locally numerous
showers/storms to develop. Some storm organization, and associated
strong to severe wind risk, into multicell clusters will be possible
with 30-40 kts of 0-6 km shear in place and cloud-layer mean wind
vectors oriented along the initiating boundary. Some isolated
convection may still be possible behind the front as the leading
shortwave trough shifts across the southern Mid-Atlantic through
00z.

The leading cold front will combine with a second weak cold front
Thurs night and become quasi-stationary over the Carolinas and into
the Southeast. This front will become the primary focus for
additional showers and storms Fri into Sat as it may briefly buckle
back into the forecast area. Given there are several days of
convective chances between now and then that will influence the
position of the front, forecast confidence is lower on convective
coverage and placement; some forecast guidance shoves this boundary
well into SC, GA, and AL due to convective outflow from Thurs
storms, which would greatly limit our chances for showers/storms for
Fri.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Lower forecast confidence Sun into early next week,
although a transition to limited rain chances and below normal
temperatures appears likely.

A reinforcing shortwave within the Omega blocking pattern is
forecast to dive from the Hudson Bay Thurs to off the Northeast
coast by Sat evening. There is considerably more forecast
uncertainty with this shortwave with respect to both speed and
amplitude as well as its evolution. Understandably this results in
lower-than-average forecast confidence this weekend into early next
week, especially when it comes to precipitation chances Sun through
midweek. The leading cluster within the grand-ensemble Sun through
Tues favor a more eastward solution which puts the mid/upper-lvl
trough offshore and northwest flow over the Carolinas, which will
greatly limit rain chances.

Forecast confidence is however higher in a long duration period of
near to below normal temperatures with below-normal 850mb
temperature anomalies providing a consistent signal among ensemble
guidance. This is highlighted well when viewing the 90th percentile
from ECME MOS and NBM bias-corrected guidance which only reach into
the low-mid 80s through Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Regional radar imagery continues to show a downward trajectory in
the coverage and intensity of the lingering showers across the
region early this morning. The deep convection has ended and a few
remnant showers or areas of spotty light rain are still possible
through the predawn hours although aviation impacts will be limited.
More importantly, areas of MVFR and IFR status across the
northwestern and northern Piedmont will expand south and southeast
overnight with IFR CIGS overspreading just about all of central NC
before daybreak. There could be a few patches of MVFR fog, mainly
across the Coastal Plain where skies briefly cleared on Tuesday
evening.

CIGS will slowly lift after daybreak with most locations
experiencing VFR conditions by mid to late morning with areas of SCT-
BKN stratocumulus and cumulus clouds with bases of 4-5kft for much
of the afternoon. While there is a chance of a shower or storm
across all of central NC, mainly during the afternoon hours, the
chances and coverage will be much much lower than the previous days.
Note that a broken line of showers and storms may move southeast out
to the northern NC Mountains and southern VA into the northern
Piedmont including the Triad and Triangle areas during the late
afternoon and evening hours with the best chances from 21Z to 02Z.
These storms could be accompanied by some strong gusty winds.
Improving conditions are expected this evening and generally fair
weather is expected into the overnight.

Looking beyond 06Z Thursday, some patchy MVFR stratus is possible
across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills early Thursday morning. A
cold front will move south through NC early Thursday and then stall
across SC. This front will be a focus for some afternoon and evening
showers and storms on Thursday across southern areas. The front may
buckle north on Friday into Saturday providing an additional risk of
adverse aviation conditions with scattered showers and storms,
mainly across southern areas.


&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006
May 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/Swiggett
AVIATION...Blaes
CLIMATE...RAH