Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

392
FXUS62 KRAH 021738
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1238 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1240 PM Monday...

* Friday is trending warmer and drier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1240 PM Monday...

1) Pockets of light rain or drizzle into tonight and early Tuesday,
mainly across the northern and northwest Piedmont.

2) Slight chance for isolated showers and storms Sunday into
Monday.

3) Well-above normal temperatures and near record breaking warmth
expected late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1240 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Pockets of light rain or drizzle into tonight and
early Tuesday, mainly across the northern and northwest Piedmont.

A 1038 mb Arctic high to our northeast will continue to nose down
into the area in a mainly dry CAD scenario for the rest of today. As
the high shifts offshore tonight, it will transition to a hybrid
style CAD setup. Northeast flow will be prevalent today through
tonight, along with areas of low stratus. A mid-level system
tracking mainly north of the region this afternoon and tonight will
bring some pockets of light rain and/or drizzle. Much of this rain
activity will be located north of US-64 across the northern and
northwest Piedmont. The 12z CAM solutions continue the northward
shift in expected rainfall. A tenth of an inch or less of rain is
expected over the Triad over towards Roxboro to Roanoke Rapids, with
just a few hundredths of an inch of rain for other areas. A trace or
less of rain is possible across the south in the Sandhills to
southern Coastal Plain.

Weak upslope in the east-southeast flow at low-levels will favor
some pockets of drizzle over the NW Piedmont overnight tonight as
the stratus layer continues to lower by Tue morning. Lows should
hover in the upper 30s N to low 40s S.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Slight chance for isolated showers and storms
Sunday into Monday.

The next precipitation chance is expected to arrive Sunday as a
frontal boundary approaches the Mid-Atlantic. Ensemble guidance
suggests a low to moderate chance of measurable precipitation across
central NC, with considerable spread in timing and coverage tied to
frontal passage. Most members favor isolated to scattered showers,
with higher PoPs possible across the northern and western Piedmont
if the boundary slows along the Appalachians. For now, the highest
PoPs are focused Sunday afternoon and evening as the front attempts
to move through the region. Latest model guidance shows a slightly
slower arrival time of the rain for Sunday, therefore if this
continues we could see a drier Sunday and wetter Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Well-above normal temperatures and near record
breaking warmth expected late week into the weekend.

As surface high pressure shifts offshore Wednesday, weak upper-level
ridging will maintain warm southerly flow across the region. High
temperatures Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 70s, with dew
points generally in the 50s. On Thursday, warm southerly flow will
increase and dewpoints will reach the low 60s. All of Central NC
will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. By Friday, temperatures and dew
points will increase ahead of a frontal boundary stretching across
the Mississippi Valley. Highs are expected to run 1525 degrees
above normal Friday and 1520 degrees above normal Saturday, with
highs nearing record values in the low 80s (see climate section
below).

As the front passes through the region early next, temperatures will
trend slightly cooler but remain well above normal, with highs
ranging from the mid to upper 70s (some areas will still be in the
80s on Monday) which will be around 1020 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Monday...

As of the 17Z observations, MVFR ceilings are currently located in
the southern half of the CWA, with another smaller area of MVFR
ceilings located to our northwest. Through the day, these regions
should continue to grow and fill in the region with MVFR ceilings.
Light rain is also possible this afternoon through tonight, with the
best chance in the northern sites and especially the Triad.
Overnight tonight, an area of MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to
move into the region from the northeast, which should lift start
to lift to VFR through the morning and early afternoon.

Outlook: Each morning will have the potential for low stratus and/or
fog development, especially at the eastern sites (FAY/RWI).
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/Kren
AVIATION...Helock