Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

294
FXUS62 KRAH 051743
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
140 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Increased chance for rain on Sunday

* Updated aviation discussion with some very low end probabilities of
  brief low clouds with the front tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 140 PM Monday...

1) Tuesday night may be the coldest night so far this autumn for
many locations, with widespread lows in the 40s.

2) Dry weather will continue into the weekend, with Sunday and
Sunday night the most likely time period for any rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 140 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Tuesday night may be the coldest night so far this
autumn for many locations, with widespread lows in the 40s.

A dry cold front will cross the region tonight, with high pressure
centered over Pennsylvania on Tuesday and over the Delmarva
Peninsula Tuesday night. Wind out of the northeast will already keep
Tuesday`s highs a few degrees cooler than Monday`s highs, so
temperatures will already be slightly cooler when sunset occurs.
Little more than a passing high cloud is expected Tuesday night, and
the proximity of the high should allow many locations to go calm,
although some light wind out of the northeast could remain across
southern counties. With ideal radiational cooling conditions, evenly
blended the deterministic NBM with the 10th percentile of the NBM,
bringing the lows into the 40s in all locations. Later shifts may
blend in more of a lower percentile and/or take advantage of
guidance such as the GFSLAMP in shorter time ranges, and cannot rule
out a location eventually dropping into the upper 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry weather will continue into the weekend, with
Sunday and Sunday night the most likely time period for any rain.

There is high confidence in a dry forecast all the way through
Friday night, with models just beginning to bring some light rain
into southern counties late Saturday afternoon. A disturbance
currently over the southwestern Gulf is likely to move to the north
through the week and bring moisture into the southeastern United
States for the weekend, but models are inconsistent whether the best
forcing for precipitation will go north along the Mississippi River
or go northeast along the Atlantic coastline. With this being days
away, the forecast will likely continue to change. For now, the
current forecast brings a 60% chance of rain across southern
counties Sunday and Sunday night with a 40-50% chance elsewhere, and
diminishing rain chances on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

MVFR ceilings are very slowly dissipating from RDU south and east
this afternoon.  VFR is expected everywhere by 21Z.  A cold front
will surge south through the area tonight, with winds turning
northeasterly behind the front.  While the front will be mostly dry
overall, some guidance hints at a brief band of clouds overnight
perhaps as low as 3000 ft.  Confidence in anything over VFR is very
low, so we have opted to just add a TEMPO showing scattered 3500ft
bases for a few hours.

The northeasterly winds behind the front will be steady at 5-10kt,
and we can`t rule out a few early gusts at RWI or FAY on Tuesday.
Otherwise, VFR is expected.

Outlook: VFR weather expected at all sites through at least Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...BLS