Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

807
FXUS62 KRAH 111721
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
120 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* no changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 253 AM Saturday...

1) Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across all of central NC
today and across parts of central NC on Sunday

2) A heat advisory today for Wayne, Sampson and Cumberland Counties
- Noon until 8 PM.

3) Turning drier and warmer early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 253 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across all
of central NC today and across parts of central NC on Sunday

A series of short/wave troughs embedded within the westerly flow
aloft will move eastward today from the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. Thunderstorms, driven in part by these waves, will track
eastward as the day progresses. The last several runs of the HRRR
have been depicting a small cluster of storms moving across central
NC later this afternoon and evening, with storms initiating over our
western Piedmont counties by early to mid afternoon, followed by
storms organizing into clusters and progressing east across central
NC through the evening. SPC continues to highlight central NC in a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today, with
damaging straight-line winds posing the primary hazard. While deep-
layer shear remains modest, localized wet microbursts are possible
where stronger downdrafts develop. WPC also maintains a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall, with localized flash flooding possible
where storms train or repeatedly move over the same locations.

Sunday will feature a cold front slipping south across the area.
Latest CAMS suggest scattered showers/tstms may develop in vicinity
of the front.   Given the persistent hot and humid airmass across
the region, particularly south of the front, resultant instability
will again support isolated svr storms with damaging wind gusts and
localized heavy downpours the primary hazards.  The marginal risk is
mainly across SW portion of central NC in conjunction with said
front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A heat advisory today for Wayne, Sampson and
Cumberland Counties - Noon until 8 PM

Another day of heat index readings of 103-105 in the advisory
counties have prompted the said advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning drier and warmer early next week.

In the wake of this weekend`s unsettled pattern and increased precip
chances, an anomalously strong 500mb ridge will take hold over the
northern CONUS and stretch from MT to MI. In this scenario, the
upper ridge will actually build into NC from the north as the center
of the ridge gradually slides eastward through the week. Between
this upper ridging and a quasi-stationary surface high pressure axis
stretching from New England into VA, a good portion of the upcoming
week should see drier than normal conditions. Convection over the
western Piedmont should be fairly isolated with the highest chances
across central NC (albeit limited) focused across the southern
Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Late in the week the upper ridge will
break down and weaken and the surface ridge will slide offshore
setting up return flow, increased moisture, and precip chances
across NC.

As upper level ridging takes hold this week, temperatures will begin
a steadily climb upward. Highs should quickly jump from the upper
80s on Tuesday to the mid 90s Wednesday, then approach the upper 90s
(near 100) Thursday and Friday. Similarly, dangerously high heat
index values will return to the forecast, especially Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions will dominate through this evening, although brief
sub-VFR conditions with strong wind gusts are possible at all sites
from mid afternoon until mid evening, namely from ~18z-22z at
INT/GSO, ~20z-01z at RDU/RWI and ~21z-02z at FAY, with the highest
chances of a strong storm at FAY. These conditions are likely to
last for less than 2 hours at any given location. Then after about
03z, we`ll see sct-bkn VFR clouds for a few hours, but MVFR cigs and
vsbys in light fog are expected at INT/GSO/RDU/RWI during the 09z-
13z time frame. VFR conditions should then follow at all sites after
about 14z, although showers/storms may begin to ramp up once again
toward the end of the TAF valid period. Surface winds from the W or
WNW at 8-15 kts gusting to 15-20 kts (outside of storms) will trend
to light NW or light/variable after 02z, lasting through mid morning
Sun, then winds will be from the NNE or NE at 8-12 kts except
staying from the NW at FAY, as a surface front settles southward
into the state.

Looking beyond 18z Sun, the chance of showers and storms will remain
high through Mon, focused each afternoon through mid evening, as the
aforementioned stalled front holds in place over the Carolinas. Late-
night through mid-morning sub-VFR fog/stratus are also possible Sun
and Mon. Rain chances will then dwindle considerably for Tue-Thu
with VFR conditions expected to prevail.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 11: KGSO 75/1992  KRDU: 77/1981  KFAY: 77/2024

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ078-
088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np/Leins
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH