Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS62 KRAH 302353
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather
into Friday. Low pressure is expected to pass generally south of the
area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

* Cold temperatures tonight in the low to mid 20s

Cold high pressure over the Southern Plains will slowly migrate into
southeast Texas into tomorrow morning. Northwest winds in the 15 to
25 mph range will diminish this evening. While the high is not
positioned just right, we should see winds decouple, to allow for
excellent radiational cooling across the region. Some guidance
suggests some orographic cirrus across the Triad tonight,
dissipating by sunrise Wed. Otherwise, it should be mainly clear.
Most areas should drop into the low to middle 20s. There might be a
few locations over the Piedmont that drop briefly into the upper
teens, per latest statistical guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

* Possible fire danger concerns with brief gusts with low RH

Cold high pressure over Texas will move offshore into the northern
Gulf during the day and evening. Meanwhile, a strong cold front over
the Upper MS valley will gradually slide south into the OH valley
come early Thu, as cold high pressure builds into the Midwest. In
advance of front, southwest winds will take over Wed with the
southern high pressure to our southwest. WSW winds of 10 to 15 will
gust at times to 15 to 20 mph, with perhaps a rogue 25 mph gust.
Highs should range from the upper 40s north to the low 50s across
the south. Combined low RH in the middle 20s with these gusts could
create fire danger concerns, especially with fuel dryness continuing
from Tue. We are planning to reach out to the NCFS on a potential
fire danger statement for portions of NC. Lows will not be as cold
Wed night, generally in the upper 20s to low/mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 107 PM Tuesday...

Upper pattern: A short-wave will move off the New England Coast
Thursday as rising heights and nwly flow aloft spread across the
eastern US. A weak short-wave will then transit the southern
Plains/Deep South Friday into Saturday night. Nwly aloft returns
over central NC Sunday through Tuesday as an anomalous mid-level
ridge re-amplifies over the central US.

Thursday through Saturday: A dry cold front will clear eastern NC
early Thursday, but the coldest/driest air will hang to our north
(highs Thursday will reach the upper 40s (N) to mid 50s (S)).  Low-
level thicknesses will drop to ~1330 m Friday morning as high
pressure shifts overhead. Good radiational cooling should promote
lows in the mid to upper 20s Thursday night.

The aforementioned weak short-wave will move across the Deep South
Friday evening and push offshore through Saturday evening. Ahead of
the system, swly sfc will develop over central NC with some
temperature and dew point recovery expected (highs will reach the
mid to upper 50s Friday afternoon).  Associated mid-level
perturbations will move across the southeast Friday evening and into
the overnight period. At the sfc, models depict a weak low
developing Friday night over the Gulf states. Lift associated with
these features should promote the development of light rain over the
Deep South Friday evening that will shift east with time through
Saturday morning. However, guidance continues to trend towards
shunting much of this precipitation to our south (several
deterministic models have central NC largely dry from this system).
Have trended the NBM PoPs down some to account for this shift in the
guidance, but still maintain a chance of rain Friday night into
Saturday afternoon with highest chances across the NC/SC border.

Dry high pressure will settle in behind the exiting weak short-wave
as nwly flow aloft dominates into early next week. However, the
coldest air will remain to our north, as highs remain near to just
above normal in the mid 50s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue through the entirety of the 24 hour TAF
period. Breezy SW-W winds at 10-18kt are expected Wednesday
afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday and likely into
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 630 PM Tuesday...

Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions remain possible
Wednesday when humidity values will be low, near 25 percent
during the late morning through early evening hours. Additionally,
wind gusts will be possible up to around 20 to 25 mph. We reached
out to the NCFS regarding a fire statement for Wed, and will
coordinate any potential headlines, if needed, early Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Badgett/CA
FIRE WEATHER...Badgett/AK