Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

871
FXUS62 KRAH 140721
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
321 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 317 AM Saturday...

* Marginal risk for a few isolated stronger wind gusts in the
  southern Piedmont Sunday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 317 AM Saturday...

1) A few organized storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening,
with isolated damaging winds possible across the southern
Piedmont/Sandhills.

2) Anomalously potent system will spread convection across central
NC Monday with increased chances for severe storms Monday afternoon
and evening.

3) Cooler than normal temperatures expected Tuesday and Wednesday
across central NC, with highs running 1520 degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 317 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A few organized storms possible Sunday afternoon
and evening, with isolated damaging winds possible across the
southern Piedmont/Sandhills.

Strengthening swly flow along the western ridge of an offshore mid-
level anti-cyclone will promote increasing moisture advection into
the southeast on Sunday. At the sfc, esely flow will persist across
central NC for much of the day as a sfc wave/low ride along the
Carolina Coast. Forcing from this feature will likely spread showers
and storms inland Sunday afternoon and evening.

Forecast soundings in the Southern Piedmont/Sandhills region
indicate some support for potential mini supercells Sunday afternoon
and evening.  The 00Z RREFS contained a clustering of mid-level
helicity swaths in this general vicinity. SBCAPE should be limited,
and as such think stretching rotation to the sfc would be difficult.
Additionally, CAPE profiles would not largely support hail. However,
if a stronger storm or two develops, would not be surprised if a
stronger gust mixes down from the stronger flow just above the sfc.
As such, can`t rule out an isolated damaging wind gust in the
southern Piedmont/Sandhills region Sunday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Anomalously potent system will spread convection
across central NC Monday with increased chances for severe storms
Monday afternoon and evening.

There continues to be good agreement amongst deterministic and
ensemble guidance in simulating the eastward ejection of a potent
mid-level trough and sfc cold front across the east coast Monday
into Tuesday.  Ahead of the front, central NC will be firmly in the
warm sector Monday morning characterized by dew points in the mid to
upper 60s.  While initial morning convection and cloud cover could
dampen downstream instability some, massive forcing aloft and
associated very strong kinematics will likely support continued pre-
frontal convection and convection along the front Monday afternoon
and evening.

Sfc flow will pick up early Monday morning ahead of the approaching
cold front supporting gradient wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph (perhaps
some higher gusts with morning showers/storms mixing down stronger
flow aloft).  Guidance is in general agreement pumping at least ~500
J/kg of MLCAPE into central NC by early Monday afternoon. In the
most bullish case (the NAM), upwards of 750 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
could plume up into our southern areas.  Regardless, bulk-layer
shear of 50 to 60 kts will spread east with time and easily support
the potential for widespread strong to severe storms Monday
afternoon and evening.

Forecasted shear-vectors early Monday afternoon may be oriented at
45 degrees wrt to the boundary. If so, this would support discrete
supercells capable of isolated tornadoes. This scenario would be
especially concerning if the more bullish MLCAPE scenario depicted
by the NAM unfolds (latest runs of the NAM depict concerning STP
values (~2 to as high as 4 in some runs) across much of central NC).

As the afternoon progresses, guidance supports a transition of the
shear vectors to more-so boundary-parallel along the advancing
front. Given how strong the shear is forecasted to be, a QLCS
appears possible along the frontal passage which would favor
potentially wide-spread damaging wind gusts with an embedded tornado
risk through Monday evening.

Any lingering convection should move east of central NC by early
Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Cooler than normal temperatures expected Tuesday
and Wednesday across central NC, with highs running 1520 degrees
below mid-March averages.

In the wake of Mondays cold front, cooler and drier air will filter
into central North Carolina late Monday night into Tuesday. A broad
upper-level trough settling over the eastern US will reinforce cold
air advection through the day Tuesday, keeping temperatures below
mid-March climatology.

High temperatures are expected to reach only the upper 40s to near
50 across the region Tuesday, which is roughly 15-20 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Gusty west to northwest winds may also
persist through much of the day Tuesday, with early morning wind
chills in the 20s. Tuesday night lows will be in the mid to upper
20s with some cooler spots in the low 20s.

&&

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 200 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through the 06Z TAF
period. Very few high clouds will continue to stream across the
region overnight ahead of an approaching upper trough. Surface winds
early this morning will be light from the southwest around 510 kts
before becoming light and variable toward daybreak.

Low-level wind shear will be present through the early morning hours
at all terminals as a strengthening low-level jet develops overhead,
with winds around 3540 kt near 2kft while surface winds remain
light. This shear is expected to diminish by roughly 0910Z as the
boundary layer begins to mix. Aside from the brief LLWS, aviation
impacts are expected to remain minimal with continued VFR conditions.

Outlook: Increased moisture may allow sub-VFR conditions to develop
as early as Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will become
possible Sunday afternoon into Monday as the next weather system
approaches, with gusty winds likely. Severe weather will be possible
on Monday afternoon/evening with flight restrictions expected. Dry
weather and VFR conditions are expected to return Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/CA
AVIATION...CA