Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

587
FXUS62 KRAH 151930
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
329 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 248 PM Wednesday...

* Nothing appreciable.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 325 PM Wednesday...

1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will
promote fire weather concerns through the weekend.

2) An early-season heat wave will result in near record high
temperatures through Saturday.

3) A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with a cold frontal
passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday, followed by
much cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near
record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the weekend.

The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify along the eastern
seaboard through the end of the week. Associated subsidence over the
southeast will promote continued dry conditions at least through
Saturday. Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the past 30
days is as low as 5 to 25% for portions of our area worsening the
elevated drought conditions.  As such, fuels have been anomalously
dry for some time.

Deep mixing on Thursday will promote a bit gustier sfc flow upwards
of 20 kts or so in the afternoon. PWAT will remain below an inch,
and given deep mixing, expect afternoon relative humidity to bottom
out in the mid to upper 20s. While the combined expected min RH and
max gusts will be sub IFD criteria, the aforementioned fire risk due
to anomalously dry fuels has prompted a request for another IFD for
our entire CWA on Thursday (to be issued by the evening shift). A
few CAMs are hinting at late night isolated showers possibly
reaching the western/central Piedmont. However, limited moisture
would only allow for trace to maybe a few hundreds of an inch of
rain, if any at all.

Winds will be lighter on Friday and Saturday but dry conditions will
persist. As such, expect Increased Fire Danger Statements to likely
be issued daily until things change significantly.

Light rain will be possible Sunday, but QPF should be generally
pretty low. As such, fire weather concerns will likely persist late
weekend (isolated lightning on Sunday would be concerning) into
early next week.


KEY MESSAGE 2... An early-season heat wave will result in near
record high temperatures through Saturday.

Anomalously strong subtropical ridging will persist over the
Southeast US for much of the period from now through Saturday, other
than a brief mainly dry shortwave passage on Friday. At the surface,
a Bermuda High will bring warm SW flow to central NC. 1000-850 mb
thicknesses are modeled to be around the 95th percentile for this
time of year, and with plenty of sunshine, forecast maximum and
minimum temperatures get close to or reach record highs each day.

Mostly lower-90s for highs and lower-to-mid-60s for lows are
expected from Thursday through Saturday, which is around 15-20
degrees above normal. Friday may be slightly cooler, particularly
across the north where forecast highs are in the mid-to-upper-80s.
This will depend on the degree of cloudiness and very light
precipitation chances from the passage of a shortwave trough, which
looks to have a surface reflection that briefly turns the low-level
flow more WNW. Can`t rule out some mid-90s on Saturday, which based
on low-level thicknesses looks to be the hottest day. For reference,
this would get close to the hottest temperatures ever recorded any
day in the month of April. See the climate section below for more
details.

Fortunately, humidity looks tolerable, with dew points mostly
bottoming out in the lower-to-mid-50s each day, perhaps even some
40s especially in the west. So heat indices will be about 2-4
degrees cooler than the actual air temperatures each day. Still,
several days in a row of highs in the lower-90s could result in heat
stress for sensitive individuals and those working and exercising
outdoors.


KEY MESSAGE 3... A late-weekend pattern transition is expected with
a cold frontal passage. Low-end rain chances are expected on Sunday,
followed by much cooler temperatures early next week.

A broad mid/upper trough will advance into the Eastern US from the
Plains this weekend. An associated cold front will move across
central NC, which could produce some isolated to scattered showers
from Saturday night into Sunday. While there is still a lot of
uncertainty on timing of the frontal passage, the latest GFS and
ECMWF and most of their ensembles have sped up, bringing it through
in the morning which would give very little time for surface heating
and instability to occur. This combined with the best forcing and
moisture from the trough focused to our north mean rainfall amounts
look light, with ensemble means less than two tenths of an inch. So
expect very little if any relief from the drought.

It will turn significantly cooler early next week with highs in the
mid-60s to 70 on Monday and lower-to-mid-70s on Tuesday. Sunday and
Monday nights will be chilly with lows mostly in the upper-30s to
lower-40s. Isolated mid-30s are on the table according to
statistical guidance, particularly on Monday night which looks to
have the best radiational cooling potential. So will need to watch
for the threat of patchy frost.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
As of 115 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hr TAF period with
light swly sfc flow diminishing overnight. Sswly sfc flow will
pick back up on Thursday gusting upwards of 15 to 20 kts in
the afternoon.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and VFR
conditions in cntl NC through Sat. Light, probably VFR rain will be
possible along and behind a cold front that will move across cntl NC
early Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

All-Time Records for April:

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930


Record High Temperatures:

April 15:
KGSO: 90/2006
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 95/2006

April 16:
KGSO: 88/2002
KRDU: 92/1941
KFAY: 94/2006

April 17:
KGSO: 90/1967
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 92/1941

April 18:
KGSO: 90/1976
KRDU: 95/1896
KFAY: 93/1941


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15:
KRDU: 64/1993

April 16:
KGSO: 66/2006
KRDU: 64/1912

April 17:
KGSO: 63/2002
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 66/1921

April 18:
KGSO: 66/1909
KRDU: 63/1941
KFAY: 67/2002

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti/Badgett
CLIMATE...rah