Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS62 KRAH 131845
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal zone will hold over the Carolinas through tonight. A
strong Arctic cold front over the Ohio Valley will move southeast
through the area Sunday. Frigid high pressure will build over the
region Monday, then move to our south Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

* Quiet and seasonable through this evening, then a chance of light
  rain late tonight across the southeast.

The latest surface analysis reveals an increasingly diffuse frontal
zone across the Carolinas, with a dissipating theta-e gradient and a
nearly uniform light surface flow over the CWA from the S and SW.
Apart from a shield of orographically enhanced cirrus in our NW,
insolation has been abundant today and should remain so for the rest
of the afternoon, and this, along with milder Atlantic-source air
working into the CWA, will support highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s.

The much-anticipated Arctic cold front is currently analyzed moving
into the Ohio Valley and will approach NC tonight, as prominent mid
level shortwave troughing swings through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley toward the Appalachians with 100-200 m height falls. Above
normal PWs will spread into central NC overnight, attending robust
upper divergence in the right entrance region of the upper jet
streak, although the weak surface ridging stretching across coastal
SC/GA and Gulf coast will keep low level moisture return limited.
While a prefrontal trough is likely to shift through the forecast
area and to our SE prior to daybreak, the coldest air associated
with the Arctic front should hold up just W of the higher terrain
through tonight. That said, the uptick in MSLP gradient behind the
prefrontal trough will likely produce some northwesterly gusts in
the NW CWA in the predawn hours. Expect chance pops to spread into
our far SW CWA and across the SE half of the CWA after 2 AM, but
amounts will be quite small. Skies should trend to mostly cloudy,
esp over the S and E, with lows 32-37 NW and 38-44 SE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Saturday...

* Very cold wind chills in the single digits Sun night to early Mon
  with a combination of lows in the teens and gusts of 30 to 40 mph
  Sun evening. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed later
  today.

The Arctic cold front is slated to move through central NC Sunday
morning. Cold air advection will commence shortly thereafter, but
really take hold late Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night
as a 1040-mb Arctic high over the Mid MS valley settles into the
southern Appalachians early Mon. A brief period of rain mixing with
or changing to snow will be possible up until the late morning hours
for areas mainly along and south/east of Raleigh, from roughly a
line from Sanford to Rocky Mount and Roanoke Rapids. As cold air
continues to filter through, ptype nomograms suggest rain changing
to snow, with even perhaps a few sleet pellets mixing in. No snow
accumulation is expected. However, if any was to occur, a light
dusting could be possible over the far northern Coastal Plain, such
as Halifax or Edgecombe Counties.

The main story thereafter will be the bitter cold temperatures and
wind chills. We will likely see highs in the upper 30s NW to near 50
in Clinton. But temperatures will gradually fall into the low 30s NW
and low 40s SE by midday. NW winds of 15 to 30 mph will be possible
during the day. By Sun evening, temps will crash into the 20s and
teens as the CAA maximizes. The pressure gradient also strengthens,
such that NW wind gusts will increase into the 30 to 40 mph range.
Forecast soundings continue to show this post-frontal deep mixing.
We actually may briefly reach Wind Advisory criteria between 4 pm
and 10 pm as NAM/GFS soundings show infrequent gusts of 40-45 mph.
This could easily blow around unsecured holiday objects. Later
shifts will take a closer look at this. Additionally, a Cold Weather
Advisory will likely be issued later today or tonight for wind
chills in the single digits area-wide into early Mon as lows tumble
into the low to mid teens. Those gusty NW winds will taper off
slowly after midnight as the pressure gradient relaxes and the
Arctic high builds into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

* Continued cold Tues morning, but warming trend expected Tues
  through Thurs night.

* Forecast confidence remains low for Thurs into Fri morning with
  our next precipitation chances.

A highly anomalous ~1040mb area of surface high pressure will be
positioned over the southern/central Appalachians Mon morning will
broaden as it spills across the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
into Tues morning. A weak pressure gradient and relatively favorable
surface high location Mon night into Tues morning should support
favorable conditions for excellent radiational cooling, especially
with Mon afternoon dew points still in the single digits. However, a
pocket of mid-upper level moisture shifting through the Ohio Valley
Mon night will likely become orographically enhanced as it
progresses east of the Appalachians and over the Mid-Atlantic after
midnight. The thickness and areal extent will likely drive the
temperatures into Tues morning. Latest forecast of mostly low 20s to
upper teens remains in line with general consensus among the latest
statistical guidance, but if the cloud cover is thinner than
anticipated, then mostly mid/upper teens would be possible with
urban areas around 20 degrees.

A compact shortwave shifting across the Great Lakes and Northeast
Thurs into Fri will be embedded within predominantly zonal flow
aloft and will drive our next precipitation chances. Amplitude and
speed of this wave remains highly uncertain with this wave with an
added complication of southern stream influence and/or phasing with
the northern stream wave. Forcing for ascent is quite weak as the
best H5 height falls, from an ensemble mean approach, will likely
occur north of central NC over the northern Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast with weakening 700 and 850mb WAA spreading into the Mid-
Atlantic. This pattern will likely not support any
significant/hazardous precipitation with forecast rainfall amounts
of less than or equal to 0.10".

It is worth noting an alternative scenario which is primarily being
driven by the ECMWF and its ensemble members. This forecast system
suggests a more amplified shortwave and perhaps a brief phasing with
the southern stream jet over the eastern CONUS. This would result in
stronger horizontal WAA and development of weak MUCAPE ahead of the
approaching cold front and support the potential for higher rainfall
totals. This solution is considered an outlier among 00z guidance,
but worth monitoring for the threat of stronger wind gusts and
moderate to heavy rainfall in addition to lightning.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the
first 12 hours of the TAF period, with lower confidence in
restrictions developing overnight. Dry weather with high ceilings
and light south-southwest wind is expected through the afternoon and
evening. As a cold front moves through the region tonight, the wind
will veer to the northwest at all terminals. With less moisture
present at INT/GSO, only scattered mid clouds are expected, but
farther to the southeast, expect ceilings (possibly MVFR), a several
hour period of low-level wind shear, and the potential for rain.
Once the front moves through, northwest wind gusts up to 25 kt will
be possible at all terminals Sunday morning.

Outlook: Wind gusts will increase Sunday afternoon, reaching as high
as 30-35 kt before dropping under 10 kt overnight into Monday. Dry
VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday, with potential for 20
kt gusts again on Thursday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...Green