Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS62 KRAH 050741
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
241 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will ridge into the area from the north today
as an area of low pressure tracks northeastward across the Southeast
US and off the Carolina coast. The low will continue east over the
Atlantic tonight, with weak high pressure settling over the region
through the weekend. A mostly dry Arctic cold front will move
through on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect through noon today for portions
  of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain of central NC.
  Up to an inch of snow accumulation is possible, highest along the
  immediate NC/VA border, with lesser amounts south.

* Snow or sleet may briefly mix with rain along and south of I-85,
  no accumulation is expected and rain should be the dominant p-type.

Overview: Aloft, a pair of s/w disturbances embedded within the
longwave trough extending from TX to the Southeast US will track
enewd into and across the region through today, then continue
offshore this eve/tonight. At the surface, the cold front has moved
south of the area, while the 1020mb Arctic high was centered over
ern NY as of 06Z, ridging sswwd across the mid-Atlantic in the wake
of the front. The surface low was analyzed near the AL/FL panhandle,
the frontal zone draped to the southwest and an inverted trough
extending newd along the wrn Appalachians. The ridge should continue
to amplify as it build into central NC this morning, while the
surface low drifts slowly ewd along the Gulf Coast. A secondary
coastal low should develop along the cold front, within a
strengthening inverted trough off the Southeast US coast this
morning, then deepen as it lifts newd offshore today and tonight.

Precipitation: The shield of stratiform rain associated with warm
advection aloft should continue through this morning. While mostly
rain, some places have had a mix of rain and sleet, but with the
weaker ridge and later arrival of cold air, the extent of potential
wintry precip has trended downward. Point soundings from the RAP and
NAM along the NC/VA border still show saturation in the dendritic
growth zone, with thermal profiles most supportive of rain changing
to a mix of sleet and snow this morning. However, with the mix of
sleet and a shorter expected duration , expected accumulations have
also decreased. The thermal profiles become even less supportive of
wintry precipitation with southward extent, with all rain expected
south of I-85. Along I-85 from the Triad to the Triangle, wintry
precip is looking less likely and while there could be some snow or
sleet mixing with rain, latest point soundings indicate rain as the
dominant p-type and little to no non-liquid accumulation. Locations
where snow/sleet does occur should see a transition to all rain
later this morning. The rain should then come to an end from NW to
SE through the afternoon, possibly lingering over the far south or
southeast into tonight. With all of the above in mind, have amended
the advisory to end at noon instead of midnight. There is still
enough uncertainty to not trim back the areal extent of the advisory
at this time, however the advisory counties not touching the VA
border may be trimmed prior to daybreak if snow does not
materialize.

Temperatures: Lows this morning should range from low 30s along the
VA border, to low 40s along the SC border. Highs still expected to
be well below normal, ranging from mid 30s north to mid 40s south.
Lows tonight expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Friday...

* Rain chances in the far SE, mainly Sat afternoon, and continued
  chilly.

The frontal zone will hold SE of the area Sat, with weak high
pressure sitting over the Carolinas. As we`ll stay within a fast WSW
mid level flow, the potential remains that subtle and hard-to-time
perturbations will ride within this flow over SC and SE NC Sat/Sat
night. There remains some model agreement on the right entrance
region of the upper jet scraping across NC Sat afternoon, yielding
associated enhanced upper divergence and resulting in a brief
northwestward bump in the NW edge of the precip shield Sat
afternoon. But the overall forcing for ascent appears to be modest
and fleeting and focused on the far SE CWA, with the bulk of the
moisture restricted to the mid and upper levels, as the opportunity
for moisture return in the low levels is lacking. As such, expect
the chance for any rain to be largely confined to areas well SE of
the Triangle, with light amounts overall, and pops tapering down and
out toward midnight. Clouds should be largely overcast, especially
over the S and E sections, and this low insolation will result in
chilly highs in the mid 40s to around 50, followed by lows in the
mid 20s to mid 30s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM Friday...

* Chilly, below-normal temperatures to persist next week.

* Precip chances decreasing late Sunday into Monday.

A central to eastern U.S. mean upper trough(with 500 MB heights ~2
S.D. below normal) and broad cyclonic flow will dominate this period-
-supporting persistent chilly, below-normal temperatures over
central NC.

The reinforcing cold air behind a cold frontal passage Monday will
make Monday and Tuesday the coldest day of the stretch.
Expect high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s, while overnight
lows Monday night could dip down into the lower to mid 20s, with
some of the colder, more sheltered locales perhaps reaching upper
teens. Wednesday may see only gradual moderation, but temperatures
should still remain below normal through mid week.

Sunday should begin mostly dry across the area, with steadier rain
and better precipitation chances suppressed to the south along a
stalled frontal zone lingering across the SE US. However, weak
cyclogenesis along the stalled boundary late Sunday-developing in
response to a northern stream shortwave trough and approaching
strong cold front--may allow a slight northward buckling of deeper
moisture and light precip back into the area Sunday evening and into
the day on Monday.  That said, models indicate less phasing between
these systems resulting in a drier trend across central NC during
this period, with primary precip-type expected to be rain.

Dry conditions are expected to return Tuesday and Wednesday with a
moisture-starved clipper trough brushing the area late Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1140 PM Thursday...

Precipitation has spread across the terminals, most notable at the
northern sites of GSO, INT, RDU, and RWI. Thermal profiles and
ground truth observations suggest that with the lighter radar
returns, a mixture of sleet and rain is expected, with the exception
of FAY, which will be all rain for the event. A mixture of snow and
sleet is favored to develop over GSO, INT, and possibly briefly at
RDU, between roughly 08z and 14z, most favored over the Triad
terminals. Thereafter, forecast soundings indicate that thermal
profiles favor rain and drizzle. Rain should taper off between 18
and 21z, latest at FAY. Aviation specific, flight conditions will
deteriorate to IFR/MVFR with the onset of precipitation, with a good
likelihood of LIFR after precipitation tapers off. IFR visibilities
are most favored at GSO/INT in potential light snow early Fri. There
is the potential for fog, mainly across the northern terminals late
Fri night, especially at GSO/INT, but confidence was too low to
include in the TAF at this time.

Outlook: IFR/LIFR conditions may persist into Sat with some
improvement possible in the afternoon Sat. Dependent on the degree
of clearing, a redevelopment of sub-VFR fog and stratus will be
possible Sat night into Sun morning ahead of our next weather system
Sun into early Mon. A strong Arctic front will scour out the
lingering sub-VFR conditions and may bring gusty northerly winds Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ007>011-
021>025.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...AK