Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

908
FXUS62 KRAH 121913
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
213 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 210 PM Thursday...

* No major changes to the weekend storm system. Confidence
  remains high in widespread beneficial rainfall this weekend,
  mainly from late Sat night through Sun night, potentially
  into Monday as well.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 PM Thursday...

1) Steady light to moderate rain expected late Sat night through Sun
night. While much of the rainfall will be beneficial given the
current drought conditions, isolated pockets of heavier rain could
lead to standing water on roads in some locations.

2) A warming trend returns, with much above normal temperatures
expected by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...  Steady light to moderate rain expected late Sat
night through Sun night. While much of the rainfall will be
beneficial given the current drought conditions, isolated pockets of
heavier rain could lead to standing water on roads in some locations.

A deep low pressure system is still expected to move south of the
region on Sunday as another low will form and strengthen off the NC
coast, bringing a round of beneficial rain to central NC. Looking at
the 00Z LREF, most ensemble members and the cluster analysis shows
rain starting late Saturday night, however there are still
differences in how late into Monday rain may stick around depending
on the strength and location of the coastal low. The 50th percentile
of the GEPS is showing the fastest exit, with the rain moving out of
the region Monday morning, while the GEFS is showing rain until
early afternoon, and the GEPS is showing light rain in the east
through Monday night, potentially even into Tuesday.

In terms of rainfall amounts, the 50th percentile of the LREF is
showing up to 1.25 inches of rain in the northwest to around 0.75
inches of rain in the southeast. When looking at the probabilities
for over 1 inch of rain, the Triad has the highest likelihood at
around 60-70%. The probability decreases as you move southeast, with
the southern Coastal Plain showing a 40-50% chance of over one inch
of rain. Probabilities increase to around 80-90% for all of central
NC for 0.5 inches of rain. This indicates that a much needed
widespread rain is expected for all of central NC. Where there is
locally heavier rainfall, minor urban flooding may be possible, but
widespread flash flooding is not likely at this time. Additionally,
limited instability looks to be present for this event, meaning that
the risk for thunderstorms will be low, however a few rumbles of
thunder cannot be ruled out especially in the southeast Sunday
afternoon and evening where temperatures and dewpoints will be
higher.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A warming trend returns, with much above normal
temperatures expected by mid-week.

After the passage of the system Sunday into Monday, the region will
return to a period of upper level ridging and surface high pressure.
This will allow for a period of warming temperatures. For maximum
temperatures, all of central NC looks to reach back into the 60s by
Tuesday, which is around 5-10 degrees above normal. Temperatures
should rise more on Wednesday and Thursday, with a return to the 70s
possible Wednesday and especially Thursday. This should be between
15-20 degrees above normal. During this time, lows will also be
generally in the 40s, which will be around 10-20 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through the TAF period
with high confidence. A backdoor cold front will settle south
through the area today. Mid and high clouds are expected through
around 00-02Z, then clearing to FEW/SKC later tonight. NW winds 5-10
kt this afternoon and evening, with occasional gusts up to 15-20 kt,
will diminish and veer to N/NNW by sunset, all winds will become
light overnight.

Outlook: VFR through Saturday. Sub-VFR conditions with rain likely
Saturday night through Sunday night. VFR returns Monday with
increased winds in the afternoon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LH/Hartfield
AVIATION...CA