Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

328
FXUS62 KRAH 012318
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
615 PM EST Sun Mar 01 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

1) Backdoor cold front arrives this evening with isolated showers
possible across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain.

2) Predominantly cold rain Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning,
but a brief period of sleet mixing with rain remains possible north
of I-85 corridor and northern Coastal Plain.

3) Well-above normal temperatures and near record breaking warmth
expected late week into the weekend.

4) Slight chance for isolated showers and storms Friday and again on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Backdoor cold front arrives this evening with
isolated showers possible across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain.

Warm sswly flow ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front has shot
temps up this afternoon into the mid 70s. Expect a few more degrees
to squeeze out the next few hours, with highs in the mid to upper
70s area-wide.  Further upstream, the backdoor cold front is quickly
pushing across the Chesapeake Bay. This front is still expected to
cruise through central NC early this evening/early tonight. Weak sfc
forcing along this boundary, coupled with a few hundred J/kg of
SBCAPE, may induce a few isolated showers mainly across the central
Piedmont into the Coastal Plain vicinity. A few cracks of thunder
are possible, but not sure how deep these cells will get given weak
instability/forcing.  Any lingering showers should scoot east of our
area by ~03Z or so. Otherwise, expect nnely gustiness of up to 25 to
30 mph at times immediately following frontal passage and lingering
some into the overnight period. Overcast conditions will build later
tonight, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Predominantly cold rain Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning, but a brief period of sleet mixing with rain
remains possible north of I-85 corridor and northern Coastal Plain.

Confidence continues to increase in mostly a cold rain within an
initially classic-CAD regime Mon into Tues morning. Strong, but
progressive, surface high pressure will shift across the Great Lakes
tonight and be briefly in a favorable position over NY/PA by Mon
morning. This surface high will quickly shift east through the day,
but a sharpening inverted trough along the Carolina coast will
persist north/northeasterly winds through Tues morning. The true
Arctic air mass (with single digit dew points) will remain confined
to the Northeast while a modified cooler but less dry air mass will
work its way into central NC ahead of the arrival of precipitation.

Using top-down and nomogram techniques for expected p-type, the
overwhelming model consensus is that the 850-700mb layer is expected
to remain > 155dam over NC and likely will not support anything
other than sleet, freezing rain, or cold rain. Since NC will be on
the southern edge of any wintry p-type, small changes with the
strength of the warm nose and position of the surface wet-bulb zero
will make minor changes to the sensible, mostly conversational, p-
type for the northern tier of continues. Expect predominantly a cold
rain as precipitation spreads into the area through the morning
hours with temperatures in the 30s to near 40 (temps may warm until
into the mid/upper 40s towards the SC/NC border). Some
conversational, rate-driven, sleet may mix in with the rain at the
onset of precipitation. Given a very warm ground (air temps in the
60s to 70s the prior two days) and surface temperatures expected to
remain above freezing, no accumulation is expected. Very light cold
rain and drizzle will likely continue through the night into Tues
morning within the CAD regime locked in over the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Well-above normal temperatures and near record
breaking warmth expected late week into the weekend.

As surface high pressure shifts offshore Wednesday, weak upper-level
ridging will maintain warm southerly flow across the region. High
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will reach the mid to upper 70s,
with dew points generally in the 50s. By Friday, temperatures and
dew points will increase ahead of a frontal boundary stretching
across the Mississippi Valley. Highs are expected to run 1525
degrees above normal Friday and 1520 degrees above normal Saturday,
with highs nearing record values. Over the weekend forecast highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s will be accompanied by dew points in the
low to mid 60s.

As the front passes through the region Sunday, temperatures will
trend slightly cooler but remain well above normal, with highs
ranging from the mid to upper 70s which will be around 1020 degrees
above normal.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Slight chance for isolated showers and storms Friday
and again on Sunday.

As low pressure tracks from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast
Thursday into Friday, increasing southerly flow and moisture return
from the coast may support isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday
afternoon, particularly with enhanced daytime heating.
The next precipitation chance arrives Sunday as a frontal boundary
approaches the Mid-Atlantic. Ensemble guidance suggests a low to
moderate chance of measurable precipitation across central NC, with
considerable spread in timing and coverage tied to frontal passage.
Most members favor isolated to scattered showers, with higher PoPs
possible across the northern and western Piedmont if the boundary
slows along the Appalachians. For now, the highest PoPs are focused
Sunday afternoon as the front attempts to move through the region.




&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 615 PM Sunday...

TAF period: Although all terminals will begin with VFR conditions,
ceiling restrictions will develop tonight and Monday morning,
eventually driving all locations to IFR/MVFR conditions. As a back
door cold front moves in from northeast to southwest, scattered
showers could reach RWI this evening, with a rumble of thunder not
out of the question. The threat of showers is minimal at other
terminals due to the amount of dry air at the surface. As the front
moves south, the wind will shift to the northeast, bringing gusts as
high as 25 kt initially and then lightening somewhat overnight.
While MVFR ceilings are expected to develop, models have been
somewhat inconsistent in how quickly those will occur (overnight or
after sunrise). A higher chance of precipitation will move in Monday
morning, but should generally remain to the north of FAY. Have
continued with prevailing rain at INT/GSO while going with VCSH at
RDU/FAY. Some sleet could initially mix in with rain at INT/GSO, but
confidence is low in the precipitation type. The wind will remain
out of the northeast Monday, but without gusts.

Outlook: IFR/LIFR ceilings appear likely at all sites Monday night
into Tuesday, with a high chance of rain continuing at all sites
except FAY. After a brief respite Tuesday afternoon/evening, IFR
restrictions appear likely to develop again Tuesday night. VFR
conditions are then expected Wednesday and Thursday until a chance
of showers and restrictions returns to the forecast on Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...


Record High Temperatures:

March 5:
KGSO: 81/1967
KRDU: 83/1967

March 6:
KGSO: 78/2022
KRDU: 82/1967
KFAY: 86/1918

March 7:
KGSO: 81/1974
KRDU: 85/1974
KFAY: 84/1961


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 6:
KGSO: 64/1967
KRDU: 64/1967
KFAY: 65/1961

March 7:
KGSO: 63/1956
KRDU: 64/1956
KFAY: 65/1961



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/AS/CA
AVIATION...Green