Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

132
FXUS62 KRAH 160627
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
125 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 125 AM Monday...

* Added the potential for dense fog tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 125 AM Monday...

1) Rain coming to an end this morning, with patchy fog early and
then a slow scattering of clouds through this evening. Radiational
fog appears likely late tonight through early Tuesday. Locally dense
fog may be possible.

2) Temperatures climbing above normal Tuesday through Saturday with
quiet weather becoming unsettling Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 125 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain coming to an end this morning, with patchy fog
early and then a slow scattering of clouds through this evening.
Radiational fog appears likely late tonight through early Tuesday.
Locally dense fog may be possible.

The stout shortwave and occluded surface low crossing GA/SC will
continue east this morning, with precip north of the low expected to
collapse southeast across the area and quickly come to an end.
Without a true surface cold frontal passage from the northwest,
cloud cover east of the Triad will linger through the the
afternoon/early evening before drier air arriving from the west can
be mixed down today. The Triad will likely scatter out earlier. Thus
temps are expected to be warmest in the west, ranging from lower 50s
east to lower 60s west. With the onset of mixing, forecast soundings
suggest a little gustiness, perhaps to 20-25 mph in the
Piedmont/Coastal Plain where clearing and stronger lower-level winds
coincide.

Given little air mass change and saturated soils combined with light
to calm winds tonight will likely result in radiation fog. Areas of
dense fog may be possible from ~09Z through ~14Z, especially for
locations along and west of US-1 (HREF probabilities for <0.25 miles
peak around 60 to 70% in this vicinity during that temporal period).
Confidence in the areal coverage of dense fog further east is lower
as it`s not quite clear how much lingering cloudiness will see out
there later today into the overnight period.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures climbing above normal Tuesday through
Saturday with quiet weather becoming unsettling Thursday through the
weekend.

The sub-tropical; ridge will build east across the Gulf this week,
resulting in rising heights and warming across the Southeast. Low-
level thicknesses are forecast to rise above 1370m by Friday which
supports highs warming well into the 70s for much of the area.  A
series of shortwaves traversing the top of the ridge causes the mean
frontal zone over the Mid-Atlantic region to sink south and result
in some showers Thursday into Friday. Confidence for the next chance
of rain is higher over the weekend as a shortwave and cold front are
expected to move across our region. Even then there is still a wide
spread in ensemble guidance for timing.  Cloud cover associated with
these shortwaves could create some uncertainty in the high
temperature forecasts late week and into the weekend. The warmest
day is expected to be Friday with high temperatures in the upper 60s
north to upper 70s to near 80 across the south. After the cold front
passes through Sunday, highs on Monday are expected to be slightly
below normal ranging from the mid/upper 40s near 50.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1229 AM Monday...

The last of the light to moderate rain is currently pushing through
KFAY/KRWI early this morning. Expect any lingering rain to pretty
much wrap up by ~10Z.  We`ll continue to remain socked in this
morning before lifting the MVFR/VFR at KINT/KGSO near sunrise
(possibly earlier). Further east, improvement to MVFR/VFR should be
slower as low-level moisture lingerings into the late afternoon. The
RAP even keeps KRDU/KFAY/KRWI sub-VFR through the end of the 24 hr
TAF period. However, this is an outlier, with most guidance lifting
these sites to VFR by ~20 to 23Z.

Expect nnwly gustiness to persist through sunrise, especially for
sites further east. Sfc winds will turn more nnely Monday with gusts
of up to 25 kts possible at KRWI/KFAY through early to mid afternoon
before subsiding through the evening hours.

Will hold off on adding a mention of dense fog potential tonight
into Tuesday morning until the 12Z package as most guidance doesn`t
develop fog until after 06Z.

Outlook: Widespread saturated soils and light to calm winds Mon
night into Tues morning will likely result radiation fog as
crossover temperatures are met. Patchy to areas of dense fog will be
possible, but areal coverage will depend on erosion of stratocu Mon
afternoon/evening. VFR conditions are expected Tues through at least
Wed night. Southwest winds will become gusty on Wed when widespread
25 to 30 kt gusts are expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NL/CA/BS
AVIATION...Luchetti/AS