Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

926
FXUS62 KRAH 071146
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
746 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Dry/continental air related to high pressure that will build
  across and offshore the Middle Atlantic will favor lower surface
  dewpoints/afternoon RH and low temperatures, both of which have
  been adjusted lower by several degrees than the NBM/official
  forecast, through Wed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Monday...

1) Seasonable start to the second week of September

2) Above normal temperatures return by mid week, with increasing
shower/storm chances Thursday and Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable start to the second week of
September

A lower mid-latidue/subtropical ridge over the srn Plains will
progress ewd and reach the Carolinas by 12Z Wed. Rising heights and
weakening nwly flow aloft will result over cntl NC.

Beneath and downstream of the ridge aloft, 1022 mb surface high
pressure will build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic, while
extending wwd into NC. Influence from the ridge and associated
continental/dry air will favor mixed/afternoon surface dewpoints in
the 50s, except lwr 60s in the Coastal Plain and ern Sandhills and
also low temperatures in the 50s to lwr 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures return by mid week, with
increasing shower/storm chances Thursday and Friday

Strong ridging will remain in place across much of the southern US
through mid week, with H5 heights forecast to steadily increase
across NC through Wednesday (peaking around 594-596dm). Meanwhile at
the surface, a 1025mb ridge off the Mid Atlantic coast will support
increasing southerly flow area-wide. While dewpoints will be slow to
recover and remain in the low to mid 60s on Wednesday, they will
climb markedly Thursday into Friday with upper 60s to lower 70s
becoming increasingly common. This will translate into steadily
increasing heat index values reaching the mid 90s Thursday and
Friday.

As the upper ridge continues to flatten, we`ll eventually see a
longwave trough and attendant surface cold front move out of the
Ohio Valley and into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast late in the week. As
such we`ll see increasing shower and storm chances as early as
Thursday afternoon within an increasingly unstable pre-frontal
airmass. There is still some uncertainty with respect to when the
front/trough will move through NC (most ensemble guidance suggests
Friday vs Thursday night), but we`ll continue to maintain increased
PoPs through the day Friday given ensemble support. That said the
strongest forcing for ascent associated with the trough should be
displaced well north of NC and it remains to be seen just how much
QPF is realized with the front when it arrives.

Precip chances should decrease in the wake of the front through the
weekend. Temps will also decrease, albeit slightly, with highs
reaching the upper 80s/lower 90s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 745 AM Monday...

Nely flow around high pressure building across the Great Lakes and
Middle Atlantic will become gusty into the teens kts with daytime
heating primarily at FAY, and more briefly at RWI and RDU around
midday.

Outlook: High pressure over the Middle Atlantic will favor VFR
conditions through mid week, with the exception of a chance of
shallow, radiation fog/mist at RWI due to local effects. A frontal
zone will settle into the NC with a chance of convection and
associated flight restrictions on Fri.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/Leins
AVIATION...MWS