Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

292
FXUS62 KRAH 151915
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday for much of south
  central NC plus the Triangle. But morning stratus could limit
  strong heating in some areas tomorrow.

* Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through
  this evening, with a focus on the W and S Piedmont and far SE.

* Confidence increasing that Mon will be the hottest day of this
  stretch, with several 100F air temps possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

1) Another Heat Advisory has been issued for parts of the Triangle
and south central NC for Sun. The hot weather will continue into mid
week, peaking on Monday when most of the area will have heat index
values near or over 105F, and our southeast could see 110F or higher.

2) A Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms continues
through this evening over all of central NC, and over the north
Sunday. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Another Heat Advisory has been issued for parts of
the Triangle and south central NC for Sun. The hot weather will
continue into mid week, peaking on Monday when most of the area will
have heat index values near or over 105F, and our southeast could
see 110F or higher.

Strong heating across southern portions of central NC along with
high dewpoints have pushed heat index values to around 105F today,
while over NE and far N sections, this morning`s sct-bkn stratus
fractus curbed heating a bit, keeping heat indices in the 90s to
around 100F. These clouds were along and NE of a surface boundary
evident in recent analyses stretching over NW into E NC, with
slightly more stable air noted earlier today NE of this boundary.
This boundary should wash out and dissipate late tonight, putting us
back into a light flow from the SSE to SW Sun and pushing high temps
well into the 90s most areas. Despite some modest mixing of surface
dewpoints Sun afternoon, readings should still hold in the low-mid
70s, with some upper 70s persisting over parts of the Coastal Plain,
and this will result in heat index values peaking around 105 to 109
over much of our southern half and Triangle region, where heat
island effects could further boost local temps. We`ve issued another
Heat Advisory for Sun for this area. But there is some uncertainty
with this, as our confidence is increasing that we`ll have areas of
low stratus around the area Sun morning, not dissipating
substantially until late morning or the noon hour, which could put a
damper on strong heating in some areas. If this occurs, heat index
values could be a bit lower than expected, although this could be
balanced by less mixing of surface dewpoints. Otherwise, thicknesses
are projected to be around 10 m above normal, so highs well into the
90s remain plausible.

This hot stretch is likely to be its worst on Mon, when highs are
expected to reach the mid 90s to around 100F areawide, with elevated
dewpoints persisting, pushing the heat index over 105F over all but
the far N, and perhaps over 110F over our far SE. If confidence in
this continues to grow, additional Heat Advisories will be needed,
and an Extreme Heat Watch or Warning may be considered in some
areas for Mon.

Temps will remain above normal with high humidity through mid week,
but with slightly lower intensity. The mid level ridge to our S will
gradually retrograde in response to a southward progression of the
flat NW flow from the Midwest through VA/NC, nudging thicknesses
down a bit, although our SW areas may stay atypically hot into late
week.



KEY MESSAGE 2... A Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe
thunderstorms continues through this evening over all of central NC,
and over the north Sunday. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

For another day, we`re in a regime featuring high PW aoa 2" and mdt-
high SBCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg, highest in the S and far W, but with
modest mid level lapse rates and poor deep layer bulk shear,
particularly in the area of highest CAPE, resulting in low overlap
of the most favorable CAPE/shear. Predictability of precise location
and timing of convection remains somewhat low beyond the first 24
hours, as the primary features that are focusing convection remain
multiple weak outflows from upshear convective systems, along with
the sea breeze and terrain-favored storms rolling into the W
Piedmont. The sub-20-kt deep layer shear will continue to limit
storm organization and longevity, but a few strong storms producing
water-loaded downdrafts remain possible through mid evening. This
overall regime will hold for Sun as well, primarily (but not solely)
across the north as outflows drift in from the NW and N, and where
PWs are expected to be a bit higher as compared to our SW sections.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...

Areas of MVFR clouds across the N will continue to lift and
dissipate through 19z. Otherwise, expect mostly a mix of VFR clouds,
including sct-bkn decks based at 4-6kft and 120-150kft, topped with
high thin clouds, for much of the next 24 hours. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are possible at any terminal, with the
highest chance through 21Z at INT/GSO/RDU and 19z-23z at RWI/FAY.
The expected sparse coverage precludes mentioning thunder in TAFs
broadly, but will closely monitor development. Activity should
dwindle to just an isolated shower or two this evening, with dry
conditions overnight. VFR conditions will dominate through the
evening, but chances are good that MVFR to IFR clouds will develop
after midnight, with highest chances from RDU to FAY, lasting
through around 14z-16z Sun, when VFR conditions should return.
Surface winds will remain light from the NE, shifting around to SE
to S tonight into early Sun.

Looking beyond 18z Sun, scattered late-day showers and storms are
possible Sun-Mon, with the better chances then shifting to just
south and southeast areas for Tue-Thu. Outside of storms, generally
VFR conditions are expected, although a few hours of patchy early-
morning sub-VFR fog/stratus may occur each day, with the highest
chances in areas that see rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

August 15: KFAY: 100/1935

August 17: KRDU: 99/1997 KFAY: 104/1954

August 18: KFAY: 98/1988


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 15: KGSO: 77/1995 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2017

August 16: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 76/2007 KFAY: 78/2005

August 17: KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 76/2024 KFAY: 78/2007

August 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021

August 19: KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940

August 20: KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005

August 21: KRDU: 76/2009 KFAY: 77/2005

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ025-040>042-
073>077-083>086-088-089.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ042-073>078-083>086-
088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...Hartfield