Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

052
FXUS62 KRAH 271540
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1040 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

* Confidence is increasing for coastal cyclogenesis favorable for a
  period of snow and bitter cold in the Carolinas some time between
  Fri night into Sun morning, although amounts and impacts remain
  uncertain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

1) A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM. A prolonged
period of Arctic cold and well below average temperatures, with
departures of mostly 10-20F (except around 30 F on Sat), will
otherwise continue through the forecast period, and likely beyond
into the first week of Feb.

2) Confidence is increasing for coastal cyclogenesis favorable for a
period of snow and bitter cold in the Carolinas some time between
Fri night into Sun morning, although amounts and impacts remain
uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM.
A prolonged period of Arctic cold and well below average
temperatures, with departures of mostly 10-20F (except around 30 F
on Sat) will otherwise continue through through the forecast period,
and likely beyond into the first week of Feb.

A polar vortex initially over Hudson Bay will be drawn swd and
across ern ON and the Great Lakes this week, while probably
elongating and splitting, with one piece likely to progress across
Atlantic Canada and another forecast to pivot across and offshore
the srn Middle Atlantic this weekend. Associated broadly cyclonic
flow and anomalously low heights, characterized by standardized 500
mb height anomalies of -1-3 sigma, will encompass much of the ern US
through Fri. During that time and beneath that cyclonic flow, a
couple of Arctic highs centered this morning over the lwr MS Valley
and SK, respectively, will progress across the Southeast. Related
high and low temperatures through Fri in cntl NC will mostly be in
the 30s to lwr 40s and teens to lwr 20s, respectively, with morning
wind chill values in the single digits and teens.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Confidence is increasing for coastal cyclogenesis
favorable for a period of snow and bitter cold in the Carolinas some
time between Fri night into Sun morning, although amounts and
impacts remain uncertain.

An elongated mid/upper level trough axis stretching across the
International border Fri morning will pivot south across the
Mississippi and Tennesse Vallie`s before the embedded basal
shortwave pinches off and occludes over the southern Appalachian and
Southern Mid-Atlantic by Sun. The progression will develop an
initially weak surface low over the central Gulf states, skip across
the FL peninsula, and rapidly deepen off the Carolina coast
Saturday. The trend in the latest suite of 00z guidance has been a
farther west occlusion of the mid/upper level low which has resulted
in an increase in the liquid equivalent over the inland areas of the
Carolinas. Based on the 1000-850 and 850-700mb thicknesses,
precipitation would fall as all snow.

Miller-A cyclogenesis patterns are known for predominantly producing
rain or snow with a very narrow transition in between. Despite the
lack of a cold Arctic high to the north, which is typically more
favorable for wintry precipitation in Miller B tracks, Miller A
cyclogenesis will lock in the cold Arctic airmass already in place
over the Mid-Atlantic with the strengthening northerly winds from
rapidly deepening low pressure off shore; so cold air should be in
abundant supply to produce all snow, expect for perhaps towards the
Carolina coast. This synoptic setup is the most favorable pattern to
produce significant snowfall totals for the Carolinas, but are not a
guarantee that we would see impactful snow accumulations
everywhere/anywhere. The finer details within the mesoscale still
need to be resolved, and the placement of the mid/upper low and
surface cyclone need to remain in close proximity to the Carolinas
to increase confidence in an impactful event. For now, greatest
confidence to see at least minor impacts from this system would be
from the eastern Piedmont towards the Carolina coast where greater
and more prolonged rates within the deformation band are most
probable.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

Arctic high pressure will extend across the Southeast and favor VFR
conditions over cntl NC through the 12Z TAF period, and beyond
through most of this week. A little gustiness will be possible with
daytime heating each late morning-afternoon, including from a swly
direction today.

Outlook: Coastal low pressure will develop along the South and
Middle Atlantic coasts and favor a good chance of flight
restrictions and snow, potentially significant, over cntl NC Fri
night through at least the first half of the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Temperatures:

January 27: KGSO: -7/1940, KRDU:  8/1940, KFAY: 11/1940
January 28: KGSO: -2/1940, KRDU:  1/2000, KFAY: 10/1935
January 29: KGSO: -7/1940, KRDU:  7/2000, KFAY: 11/1986
January 30: KGSO:  4/1966, KRDU:  7/2014, KFAY:  8/2014
January 31: KGSO:  3/1966, KRDU:  3/1966, KFAY:  9/1934
February 1: KGSO: -4/1936, KRDU:  8/1981, KFAY:  1/1936
February 2: KGSO:  6/1971, KRDU:  5/1971, KFAY: 15/1971

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 27: KGSO: 22/1940, KRDU: 25/1940, KFAY: 28/1940
January 28: KGSO: 23/1986, KRDU: 23/1897, KFAY: 32/1961
January 29: KGSO: 23/1966, KRDU: 27/2014, KFAY: 28/2014
January 30: KGSO: 13/1966, KRDU: 19/1966, KFAY: 29/1966
January 31: KGSO: 22/1936, KRDU: 27/1948, KFAY: 22/1966
February 1: KGSO: 27/1971, KRDU: 28/1900, KFAY: 32/1981
February 2: KGSO: 30/1951, KRDU: 31/1994, KFAY: 31/1948

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/AS
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH