Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

788
FXUS62 KRAH 250723
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
223 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 AM Wednesday...

* Localized rainfall amounts Thursday could approach 2+ inches
  along the US-64 corridor

* Above normal temperatures this weekend trending below normal early
  next week with the potential return of wet weather

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 222 AM Wednesday...

1) A period of unsettled weather develops late tonight and continues
into Thursday. The wet weather could persist into early Sat within
a possible in-situ CAD regime.

2) Mainly dry this weekend with above normal temperatures. A cold
front early next week could bring a return to wet weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A period of unsettled weather develops late tonight
and continues into Thursday. The wet weather could persist into
early Sat within a possible in-situ CAD regime.

A relatively dry day is expected today as return southwest flow will
be in full swing across the region. With the surface high over the
Atlantic, the flow will bring warmer air into the region. However,
mid-high clouds will be prevalent today, making for a difficult
temperature forecast. For now, expecting a few degrees above normal
in the upper 50s to low 60s. Wind gusts this afternoon may approach
25-30 mph, highest in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

A period of wet weather will develop late tonight and continue
through most of Thursday as a wave of low pressure along a southward
moving frontal boundary approach the region. Deep moisture will
overspread the area, with precipitable water values over 200-percent
of normal. Aloft, we will see a period of moist upglide riding atop
the surface boundary, along with some possible jet enhancement with
a jet streak over the NC/VA area. Rainfall amounts with this first
frontal wave could range from three quarters of an inch to 1.25
inches, just based on the LREF ensemble. However, some locations
could see a half inch or less, depending on where banding may set
up. Along these same lines on the higher end, the HREF is picking up
on some localized rainfall totals along the US-64 corridor upwards
of 2+ inches, likely driven by the jet, DPVA, and weak MUCAPE seen
in forecast soundings. Confidence on this high-end scenario is not
great, but is not out of the realm of possibilities.

A secondary wave of low pressure is forecast to track along the
boundary as the cold front moves south of central NC Thu night and
early Fri. The track of this second system still varies amongst the
ensemble and deterministic guidance. The more southern solutions
bring dry weather to the area Fri, while the northern solutions keep
moist upglide over the region Fri and perhaps lingering into early
Sat along the Coastal Plain. It would appear the trend in the LREF
is for a wetter Fri, particularly over areas along/east of US-1, but
uncertainty still remains. If the wetter solutions were to verify,
an in-situ CAD regime could setup Fri with temps below normal in the
low/mid 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Mainly dry this weekend with above normal temperatures.
A cold front early next week could bring a return to wet weather.

Although uncertainty remains in regards to the first half of the
weekend with respect to a possible in-situ CAD regime slowly eroding
Sat, it would appear most LREF ensemble members favor a drying trend
as the frontal boundary continues to sag south of the area.
Temperatures should start to then trend above normal, especially by
Sun as low-level thicknesses continue to rise beneath developing
quasi-zonal flow aloft. Highs on Sun could approach the mid 60s to
low 70s.

As we head into early next week, there is at least broad consensus
that a somewhat transitory 1040-mb high builds down the Mid-Atlantic
region Mon through Tue. A backdoor cold front will accompany this,
moving through central NC perhaps by early Mon and setting up a
return to below normal temperatures heading into Tue. There is still
a large amount of spread with the pattern, and thus temperatures,
but there is some agreement amongst the ensembles and machine-
learning guidance that a frontal wave may move through early to
middle of next week atop the cold wedge. This could favor a return
to cloudy/wet weather late Mon into Wed, although it is too soon to
discuss precipitation amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions should generally prevail over the 24 hour TAF period.
Tonight, a 45-50 kt southwesterly low level jet will continue to
move over central NC, leading to LLWS. Shortly after sunrise, the
higher winds should start to mix down to the surface, leading to
southwesterly gusts in the 20s kts during the daylight hours,
diminishing around sunset. A few gusts over 30kts may be possible as
well. Flight restrictions look to hold off until right around 06Z,
so did not include in any TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Flight restrictions and rain are expected Wed night through
early Friday, as a couple of frontal zones merge and move slowly
across the region. Low clouds and a risk of morning drizzle may then
linger into Sat, though forecast confidence by that time is only low-
medium.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...LH/MWS