Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

717
FXUS62 KRAH 272337
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
735 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A backdoor front will bring low clouds and patchy fog Wednesday
  morning.

* The chance of rain remains Sunday into Monday, but confidence
  remains low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 218 PM Tuesday...

1) Patchy fog and low stratus will build over the region early
Wednesday, slowly lifting during the afternoon hours tomorrow.

2) High pressure will keep dry and near to above normal temperatures
through Saturday. A chance of rain remains Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 218 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Patchy fog and low stratus will build over the
region early Wednesday, slowly lifting during the afternoon hours
tomorrow.

A backdoor cold front is presently located to our north in the
Delmarva area and off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. This front is
forecast to approach overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning.
While the actual front is not likely to move through, it will lead
to pooling of moisture in the low-levels. The northeast moist low-
level flow will lead to increasing surface dewpoints into the 50s
along and east of the Triangle by sunrise Wednesday.

Guidance is pretty consistent on a layer of low stratus spreading
west from the Coastal Plain into the Piedmont during the overnight
and early morning hours. With dewpoints also increasing, patchy fog
will also be possible, especially in outlying areas where winds go
calm. This layer of low stratus is expected to gradually lift and
disperse during the mid to late afternoon Wednesday. Highs tomorrow
will be a touch cooler than today as a result of the cloud cover and
slightly lower thicknesses, generally upper 60s west to low/mid 70s
in the east.


KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will keep dry and near to above
normal temperatures through Saturday. A chance of rain remains
Sunday into Monday.

High pressure ridging will continue to bring seasonal to above
average temperatures through Saturday. Our warmest day is expected
to be Friday, ahead of another backdoor front that slides through
early Saturday. Highs on Friday could be some 10-12 degrees above
normal in the upper 70s to around the low 80s.

The backdoor front is forecast in much of the guidance to move
through early Saturday, with cool 1030 to 1034-mb high pressure
extending down into the region into early next week. This should
favor highs generally in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

We continue to monitor the chance of rain late Sunday afternoon into
midday Monday, with perhaps another chance by the middle to latter
part of next week. But focusing on the Sun-Mon period, there remains
still a bit of ensemble spread. Specifically, the machine-learning
ensemble guidance continues to be on the dry side, as a result of a
more flat and muted mid-level shortwave, thereby limiting isentropic
ascent. Some wetter ensemble solutions show a more developed wave
tracking through and thus better rain chances. But even given that,
the spread in rainfall is still large, ranging from just a trace to
three quarters of an inch. Thus, confidence remains low on expected
rainfall, if any, at this stage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 735 PM Tuesday...

TAF period: High confidence that VFR/fair weather will continue
across central NC into the early morning hours. After 06Z, an area
of IFR to LIFR stratus and some fog will develop across the Coastal
Plain of NC and expand and shift west. There is high confidence that
stratus with CIGS in the IFR range will develop at KRWI between 05Z
and 07Z and KFAY between 06Z and 08Z. The stratus should persist
through the 12z-15z before slowly lifting. At KRDU, confidence is a
little lower but there`s a high probability of stratus and some fog
developing 06Z and O8Z. Further west, confidence is lower at KGSO
and KINT but still sufficient to include prevailing IFR CIGS
beginning between 10Z and 13Z. Restrictions should be slow to
improve area wide with the stratus gradually lifting and fog burning
off during the late morning hours with most locations becoming VFR
by 18Z.

Outlook: Additional rounds of CIG and VSBY restrictions are possible
Wednesday night and Thursday night. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions
are expected into late Saturday.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...Badgett/Blaes