Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

924
FXUS62 KRAH 111844
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
144 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

* No major changes with the afternoon forecast update.
  Confidence remains high in widespread beneficial rainfall this
  weekend, although rainfall totals and areal coverage of > 1"
  remain uncertain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

1) Above-average temperatures are expected this afternoon with
clearing skies northwest to southeast through the evening.

2) High confidence remains in steady light to moderate rain
late Sat through Sun night. A period of beneficial rainfall
appears likely for many locations in severe drought.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above-average temperatures are expected this
afternoon with clearing skies northwest to southeast through
the evening.

As the cold front crosses the region early this afternoon,
isolated showers are beginning to taper off across the
southeast. Skies are beginning to clear on the back side of the
front as much drier air will move in, and humidity levels will
drop quickly. Despite the front, temperatures will remain well
above normal today and tonight, with highs reaching the low to
mid 60s. Winds will be northwest and become gusty at times with
25-20mph gusts this afternoon diminishing after sunset. Cooler
air will arrive tonight as high pressure builds in. Temperatures
will fall into the 30s overnight, with a few colder spots in
the upper 20s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... High confidence remains in steady light to
moderate rain late Sat through Sun night. A period of beneficial
rainfall appears likely for many locations in severe drought.

An initially closed southern stream mid/upper level trough off
the CA coast will kick eastward Fri and is expected to shift
across the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
NWP guidance is beginning to narrow in on the track the southern
stream wave, but the mesoscale details remain less certain and
will be directly tied to the location/magnitude of the
maximum/minimum rainfall footprint. The biggest change in the
past 24 hours is the expected placement of the surface high
relatively to the incoming southern stream wave. Latest forecast
suggest less mid/upper level confluence over the Northeast and
results in the surface high to take a much farther south track
over the Mid-Atlantic Sat morning and shift quickly off the
Carolina coast by Sat evening. This will favor an exclusively
in-situ CAD type, where diabatic processes are required to
develop the CAD pattern as precip falls into a drier airmass.

Regardless of phasing concerns with the northern stream wave,
central NC is favorably placed with respect to the southern
stream wave and results in a variety of forcing mechanisms to
lift anomalous deep-layer moisture advecting into the region.
Probabilities of > 1" in 24 hours has more-or-less remained the
same across the forecast area and range generally from 50-20%,
with greatest probabilities across the Foothills and western
Piedmont and least in the Coastal Plain. Reasonably high-end
totals still range from 1-2 inches, which is slightly more
favored from the Foothills into the Piedmont.

Alternate scenarios: Guidance is beginning to narrow in on the
track of the southern stream wave, but the timing of its
eastward translation remains the biggest forecast uncertainty.
The 00-06z GEFS runs appear to the be the slowest, and using
cluster analysis, this scenario has some support from some EPS
members and results in the second most reasonable scenario that
precip may not spread into the area until Sun afternoon.
However, this scenario may be becoming less likely as the 12z
GEFS is coming in more in line with other ensemble solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the 24-hr TAF period. A cold front and some
brief/patchy light rain will move through KRWI and KFAY in the
next hour or two. In its wake expect breezy/gusty nwly winds and
decreasing cloud cover through this evening. Gusts should
generally abate after sunset, however a few
lingering/intermittent gusts are possible through midnight.
Otherwise expect nwly winds at 5-10 kts overnight. Forecast
winds of 35-40 kts at the top of the mixed layer could result in
some borderline LLWS overnight, but expect enough stirring at
the surface to keep mention out for now.

Outlook: The next chance for precipitation and sub-VFR
conditions will be Sat night/Sun, otherwise expect dry weather
and VFR conditions to prevail.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/AS
AVIATION...KC