Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

915
FXUS62 KRAH 191141
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
641 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 317 AM Thursday...

* Uncertainty remains for the chance of wintry precip monday, mainly
  north and east of Raleigh.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 317 AM Thursday...

1) A front, and focus for rain, will strengthen and become quasi-
stationary near the border of NC and VA this morning through Fri
morning, with continued unseasonably mild/warm conditions to its
south and throughout most of cntl NC.

2) Potential record warmth on Friday with highs ranging from 71-
80F.

3) Uncertainty remains with respect to a coastal low bringing rain
chances Sunday into Monday, with below normal temperatures returning
to start the week.

4) Temperature drop expected after the cold front, with temperatures
expected to be below average next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 317 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A front, and focus for rain, will strengthen and
become quasi-stationary near the border of NC and VA this morning
through Fri morning, with continued unseasonably mild/warm
conditions to its south and throughout most of cntl NC.

Satellite imagery this morning depicted an expansive long-wave
trough extending from southern California east-northeast across and
just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Embedded weak mid-level
perturbations continue to slide east across the TN Valley and VA/NC
Piedmont generating light rain this morning.  Steadier rain has
largely stay north and west of us with generally just trace
estimates/observations reported over northern central NC thus far.

At the sfc, a weak boundary was evident extending along the NC/VA
foothills/Blue Ridge eastern slopes up into central VA. Further
northeast, a backdoor cold front was observed moving ssw across the
Delmarva Peninsula.  This front will sag ssw this morning,
strengthen, and become quasi-stationary along or just north of the
NC/VA border.  Additional weak mid-level perturbations are expected
to ride across the southern Appalachians today, likely generating
additional light rainfall in this vicinity.  With time, the boundary
should retreat northward some into southern VA. As such, think the
highest precipitation totals will shift north into VA this afternoon
and evening (supported by the latest 00Z HREF and 06 HRRR/NamNest
QPF footprints). Areas in the northern Piedmont/northern Coastal
Plain will likely see upwards of a few tenths of rain at most
through 12Z Friday.

Warm sly flow south of the front (in addition to some thinning of
the cloud deck across southern areas) will push max temperatures up
into the lower to mid 70s. Locations along the NC/VA border will
likely be a bit cooler, with highs in the lower to mid 60s with low
overcast persisting much of the day.

Low overcast will sock in across all of central NC Thursday night
into Friday morning.  Low temperatures across much of the area will
only dip into the upper 50s/lower 60s, almost 30 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential record warmth on Friday with highs ranging
from 71-80F.

As the lingering stationary front slowly retreats north late tonight
into Friday, it is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with
temperatures potentially reaching the low 70s north to upper 70s/
near 80 degrees across the south. Temperatures will all depend on
how much the cloud cover scatters out especially in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Uncertainty remains with respect to a coastal low
bringing rain chances Friday through Monday.

A surface low looks to develop off of a stalled front in the
Southeast on Saturday, which is expected to strengthen off the
southeast coast. The low should then continue to strengthen and move
up the mid-Atlantic coast Sunday into Monday. Looking at the 12Z
LREF cluster analysis, details on the strength and location of the
low off the coast are still unclear. Two of the four clusters are
showing lows that are stronger and closer to the coast which show
precipitation over central NC Sunday afternoon into Monday morning,
while the other two clusters show weaker lows further from the coast
with no precipitation. One cluster is also showing the chance for
some light snow in the northeast early Monday morning with any wrap-
around moisture lingering across the area mainly Raleigh north and
east.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Temperature drop expected after the cold front,
with temperatures expected to be below average next week.

Temperatures will drop below normal by Sunday and continue to be
below normal through at least mid-week. As the coastal low pulls
away Monday, cold Canadian high pressure will build into the region,
bringing a secondary surge of cold, dry air characterized by brisk
northwesterly winds through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 632 AM Thursday...

12Z update: VFR conditions persist across central NC this morning.
However, MVFR/IFR ceilings have rapidly developed as far northeast
as KCLT. Still expecting KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI to drop to MVFR/IFR
this morning and persist into the afternoon period. Latest guidance
has trended towards a bit further north retreat of the low-level
clouds, and as such KINT/KGSO may also briefly lift to VFR late this
afternoon before IFR/LIFR ceilings spread south across central NC
later tonight/early Friday morning.

Decided to add LLWS at KINT/KGSO/KRDU with this package. However,
it`ll likely be short-lived even at these sites as swly sfc gusts
pick up quickly after ~13Z Friday.

Previous discussion from 06Z:

A broken band of elevated rain continues to spread east across the
central/northern Piedmont this morning while VFR conditions persist
at all TAF site. Very little if any of this rain is reaching the
surface. Further north along the NC/VA foothills and eastern slopes
of the Blue Ridge an initial weak boundary has begun to develop.
This general area is blanketed with light rain, and a mix of MVFR to
LIFR ceilings. Upstream weak perturbations continue to generate
light rain over the western TN/VA/NC slopes.  This rain should
largely spread nne of central NC up into the VA Piedmont through
much of today.  Will keep a mention of light rain possible at all
northern TAF sites this morning through the early afternoon, but
again most of the steadier rain should remain north into VA.

Further northeast a backdoor cold front continues to advance ssw
across the Delmarva Peninsula this morning. This front is expected
to sag ssw, strengthen, and become quasi-stationary along the NC/VA
border through this afternoon persisting into the overnight period.
As it sags south, the deep low-level moisture just to our north will
sag south and drop KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI to mix of MVFR to IFR
ceilings around sunrise this morning.  Guidance continues to suggest
some sort of northward retreat of these ceilings, but its not quite
clear if the northern TAF sites will lift to VFR later today.
KRDU/KRWI are most likely to lift to VFR for a bit this afternoon
and evening, less so at KINT/KGSO. Regardless, MVFR to IFR ceilings
will sag south again later this evening and persist into the
overnight period through Friday morning. KFAY will likely remain VFR
through the 24 hr TAF period, with perhaps some thinning of the
cloud deck possible this afternoon and some sly gusts of up to 20
kts at times.

Marginal LLWS may be possible for a few hours before sunrise Friday.
Will re-assess latest output and possibly add that to a few TAF
sites at the 12Z package.

Outlook:  A chance of showers and gusts pre-frontal swly winds will
accompany a trailing cold front across the region later Fri. That
front and focus for the development of a couple of areas of low
pressure will then stall over the Southeast and support periods of
rain and additional flight restrictions over cntl NC this weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

February 19:
KRDU: 76/1939

February 20:
KGSO: 74/1922
KRDU: 75/1939
KFAY: 82/2014


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

February 19:
KGSO: 55/1961
KFAY: 62/1938

February 20:
KGSO: 56/1939
KRDU: 62/1939
KFAY: 60/1939

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/CA/LH
AVIATION...Luchetti/MWS