Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

901
FXUS62 KRAH 100556
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Limited cooling into the mid 80s to around 90 this weekend, with
  heat returning Monday.

* Risk for excessive rain lowering with the next (weakening) front
  this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 155 AM Thursday...

1) Continued hot weather through Friday, with limited cooling this
weekend.

2) Marginal risk for excessive rain (flash flooding) on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 155 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...  Continued hot weather through Friday, with limited
cooling into the mid 80s to around 90 this weekend.

Current observations and model data continue to suggest a weaker
upper disturbance, stronger return of upper ridging more quickly,
and a weaker cold front becoming stationary or washing out Saturday.

Strong mid/upper level ridging will be overhead today and begin to
shift off the south Atlantic coast Friday. This will allow a
weakening cold front to push toward the region Friday afternoon and
likely stall somewhere over central NC Friday night, then lift back
as a warm front over the weekend. The upshot of all this will be the
hottest day will occur today with very limited chance of PM
convection. Highs in the lower to mid 90s. Heat indices will still
be 100 or lower due to the dew points in the 60s.

Dew points are forecast to rise into the lower to mid 70s Friday as
the cold front approaches. There will be an increasing chance of
showers/storms in the afternoon and evening. Highs will likely be a
few degrees lower than today, offset by higher dew points. Heat
indices of 98 to 105 NW to SE expected, with actual highs 90-95.

2) Marginal risk for excessive rain (flash flooding) on Saturday.

However, models continue to suggest a weaker upper disturbance,
stronger return of upper ridging more quickly, and a weaker cold
front becoming stationary or washing out Saturday. Excessive
rainfall potential should be limited to isolated flooding and mainly
in urban and poor drainage areas. Less QPF means little help with
the current drought.

Saturday will bring scattered thunderstorms with a low end excessive
rainfall threat with the aforementioned helpful convective PM
triggers. Limited shear should keep the storms from being organized
and/or severe.

The return of strong upper ridging as early as Sunday means lower
chance of PM thunderstorms Sunday into next week with increasing
heat again, with highs Monday back in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 AM Thursday...

Shallow moisture return near and west of FAY may bring the risk for
SCT/BKN IFR to LIFR cigs or fog to FAY. Probability of occurrence is
and has remained around 25% chance between 10 and 14z, which is too
low to include in the 00z TAFs at this time, but may be included in
the 06z TAFs. Otherwise, a shallow inversion and strengthening LLJ
around 1,000 ft may result in marginal LLWS tonight, strongest at
INT/GSO. Lack of meaningful wind direction change and marginal
magnitudes of 25 to 35 kts and sustained 5-10 kts at the surface
precludes the need to mention LLWS in the 00z TAFs.

Outlook: A cold front will slowly work its way south from VA and
potentially into NC Fri into Fri night. This boundary will likely be
a focus for convection, but also bring a risk for post-frontal sub-
VFR cigs Sat morning. An approaching disturbance from the TN Valley
and Deep South will bring a chance for more scattered to widespread
showers/storms on Sat that may continue into early overnight period.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...AS