Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

309
FXUS62 KRAH 031823
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
223 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 220 PM Friday...

* While pre-frontal convection/precipitation and clouds will
  probably affect the warm/moist sector over cntl NC early in the
  day Sunday, adequate instability will likely support the
  development of scattered storms (isolated severe) along/ahead of
  the synoptic cold front during the afternoon and evening

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 PM Friday...

1) Showers and possible storms still expected Sunday ahead of a cold
front. The Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe, introduced for the
Coastal Plain earlier this morning, may be expanded wwd across a
larger portion of cntl NC in subsequent outlooks.

2) Turning cooler with below normal temperatures expected early to
middle of next week, with frost/freeze conditions possible midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and possible storms still expected Sunday
ahead of a cold front. The Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe,
introduced for the Coastal Plain earlier this morning, may be
expanded wwd across a larger portion of cntl NC in subsequent
outlooks.

A mid/upr trough and embedded s/w will track ewd from the MS Valley
and across the region Sun/Sun night, while the parent low lifts
enewd across the Great Lakes and Quebec, Canada. At the surface,
with Bermuda high pressure in place to the east, a strong cold front
will approach from the west Sat night. As the parent low occludes
over Canada, the ewd progression of the front may slow some, with
the front moving across the region late Sun aft into early Sun
night, progressing offshore by Mon morn. Ahead of the front, a 30-40
kt LLJ over the area Sat night/early Sun may weaken and shift ewd
through Sun morn/aft. A pre-frontal trough may strengthen over the
area, perhaps providing an early forcing mechanism for convection.
Off the NAM forecast soundings, PWATs of 1.4"-1.6" are present, with
6km bulk shear maxing out between 25 and 40 kts and limited SBCAPE
of roughly 200-600 J/Kg. The timing of the fropa will impact the
available instability, with a continued conditional threat for a
severe storm or two. The SPC does have ern NC (including the Coastal
Plain) in a Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Turning cooler with below normal temperatures
expected early to middle of next week, with frost/freeze conditions
possible midweek.

In the wake of the front, a modified high will build into the region
from the west Mon and Tue. A reinforcing Canadian high will slide
sewd across the nrn Plains/upper MS Valley Mon night/Tue, then
continue sewd across the Great Lakes and Northeast/mid-Atlantic Tue
and Wed The high should shift off the mid-Atlantic coast by Wed
night, continuing to ridge swwd into the region through Fri as it
lifts newd over the Atlantic. Temperatures should drop to near
normal (generally within 5 degrees) Mon and Tue, dropping further to
below normal Tue night through Wed night before moderating back to
near normal for the end of the week. The potential for frost/freeze
conditions remains for mid-week. The coldest night will be Tue night
when forecast lows drop into the mid/upper 30s, with the potential
(via some of the cooler guidance) for some low 30s, especially in
the usual cooler spots and across the north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

Scattered convection will result at FAY through early this evening,
during which time brief flight restrictions, gusty surface winds,
and thunder will be possible. VFR conditions are anticipated
otherwise and elsewhere across cntl NC until Sat morning, when areas
of mostly MVFR ceilings, to possibly IFR ones over the Piedmont, are
again expected.

Outlook: A few showers and storms will be possible near and
especially southwest of INT/GSO Sat afternoon. Despite the
development of a nocturnal low-level jet in the lee of the srn and
cntl Appalachians Sat night, a well-mixed boundary layer and an at
least occasionally gusty swly surface breeze will limit the risk of
low-level wind shear. A pre-frontal trough and/or synoptic cold
front will focus showers and storms and flight restrictions as they
move across cntl NC Sun afternoon through evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 4:
KGSO: 87/2025
KRDU: 90/2025


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 5:
KFAY: 67/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...MWS