Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

559
FXUS62 KRAH 261908
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
205 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 200 PM Monday...

* Will issue an Special Weather Statement for tricky and slippery
  travel conditions tonight.

* Concern for the potential of a coastal winter storm this weekend
  continues to increase. It is still too early to settle on the
  sensible weather details and associated impacts to cntl NC.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 205 PM Monday...

1) Dangerously cold conditions are expected tonight with lows
ranging from around 5 to 15 degrees with minimum wind chill
values in the single digits, to possibly below zero at times.

2) Cold temperatures tonight will promote the refreezing of
residual moisture and slush on area roadways and walkways and
result in slippery and rapidly changing traveling conditions.

3) Another cold airmass will build into the region
during the mid to late week with well below normal temperatures each
day. Morning wind chills each morning may fall into the single
digits across many areas for Thursday into the weekend.

4) The potential development of coastal low during the weekend could
bring some wintry precipitation to central NC, but impacts remain
highly uncertain with the system still 56
days out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 PM Monday...


KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerously cold conditions are expected tonight
with lows ranging from around 5 to 15 degrees with minimum wind
chill values in the single digits, to possibly below zero at times.

* Cold Weather Advisory in effect from this evening through mid
  morning Tuesday.

Cold Arctic air will surge into central NC tonight as a 1036mb
surface high centered over the Deep South slips east. The associated
airmass with consensus 1000-850mb thickness values ranging in the
lower to mid 1050s. Any lingering strato-cumulus clouds should
largely dissipate this evening resulting in clear skies. The gusty
northwest winds this afternoon and evening promoting vigorous CAA
will continue into the overnight before relaxing after midnight.
Forecast soundings support this pattern noting the boundary layer
will stay mixed in most spots through the early morning hours with a
tendency of winds relaxing and trending toward calm toward daybreak.
This will be critical in determining how cold we get and how many
locations will fall into the single digits. Not surprisngly NWP
guidance varies with low temperatures tonight as factors such as the
winds and possible snow cover drive differences. Have opted to
steer lows away from the coldest options such as the ENS as I
have some doubts that winds will totally slack off and I have
some concern about the degree of snow/ice cover present and how NWP
is interpreting it. Still, lows tonight will range from 5 to 10 in
the Triad and VA border counties, the lower teens in the Triangle
and Piedmont and the mid teens in the Sandhills. These temperatures
when combined with northwesterly winds that will be strongest both
this evening and then again with mixing right after sunrise, will
support wind chill values mostly in the single digits above zero
with readings of five below possible at times across the Northwest
Piedmont.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold temperatures tonight will promote the
refreezing of residual moisture and slush on area roadways and
walkways and result in slippery and rapidly changing traveling
conditions.

Temperatures will quickly fall below freezing this evening and with
the arrival of darkness, the refreezing of residual moisture and
slush on area roadways and walkways and result in slippery and
rapidly changing traveling conditions. Will highlight the concern in
a Special Weather Statement.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Another cold airmass will build into the region
during the mid to late week with well below normal temperatures each
day. Morning wind chills each morning may fall into the single
digits across many areas for Thursday into the weekend.

A dry cold front will move across the region Thursday, ushering in
another round of bitterly cold air. High temperatures will steadily
trend lower through the weekend as a strong Canadian surface high
builds southward into the Midwest and then eastward into the Mid-
Atlantic, allowing cold air to continuously filter into the area.
Temperatures are expected to be well below normal and approach
climate records at times (see Climate section). Highs Thursday and
Friday will range from the upper 30s to near 40 across the southern
portions of the area, with overnight lows dropping into the teens
and morning wind chills in the single digits. As the surface high
shifts east into the Mississippi Valley, cold advection will
persist, with highs over the weekend ranging from the mid to upper
20s on Saturday to the low to mid 30s on Sunday. Overnight lows will
fall into the 1015 degree range, with wind chills near or below
zero in some locations.

KEY MESSAGE 4... The potential development of coastal low during the
weekend could bring some wintry precipitation to central NC, but
impacts remain highly uncertain with the system still 56 days out.

Model guidance continues to indicate that an upper level trough
digs across the Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic late week into the
weekend with some degree of offshore cyclogenesis along the
Southeast coast. Recent runs of the GFS, ECMWF, their ensembles
generally show a wave or low pressure development off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, possibly spreading precipitation across central NC.
However, significant uncertainty remains regarding the strength
of the offshore system and more importantly, how close it tracks to
the coast, which will ultimately determine whether the impacts
remain offshore or spread inland. While the synoptic pattern
suggests the potential for wintry precipitation across central NC,
this system is still 56 days out, and run-to-run model variability
is expected over the next few days. Forecast confidence remains very
low at this time.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1217 PM Monday...

Much drier air continues to work in from the west this afternoon
with VFR conditions already taking hold over central NC. VFR weather
will extend through the entirety of the TAF period. Gusty northwest
winds around 25-30 kts are possible area-wide through 00Z, then
gradually becoming calm by 06Z.

Outlook: VFR weather anticipated through Friday,

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Temperatures:

January 26: KGSO:  3/1940, KRDU: 10/1940, KFAY: 14/1963
January 27: KGSO: -7/1940, KRDU:  8/1940, KFAY: 11/1940
January 28: KGSO: -2/1940, KRDU:  1/2000, KFAY: 10/1935
January 29: KGSO: -7/1940, KRDU:  7/2000, KFAY: 11/1986
January 30: KGSO:  4/1966, KRDU:  7/2014, KFAY:  8/2014
January 31: KGSO:  3/1966, KRDU:  3/1966, KFAY:  9/1934
February 1: KGSO: -4/1936, KRDU:  8/1981, KFAY:  1/1936

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 26: KGSO: 22/1961, KRDU: 24/1961, KFAY: 29/2004
January 27: KGSO: 22/1940, KRDU: 25/1940, KFAY: 28/1940
January 28: KGSO: 23/1986, KRDU: 23/1897, KFAY: 32/1961
January 29: KGSO: 23/1966, KRDU: 27/2014, KFAY: 28/2014
January 30: KGSO: 13/1966, KRDU: 19/1966, KFAY: 29/1966
January 31: KGSO: 22/1936, KRDU: 27/1948, KFAY: 22/1966
February 1: KGSO: 27/1971, KRDU: 28/1900, KFAY: 32/1981

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday
for NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/Anderson/Danco
AVIATION...Leins