Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

572
FXUS62 KRAH 101907
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
307 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* None at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

1) A frontal system will bring a chance for rain across the area
Monday.

2) A cold front will bring a decent chance of showers and isolated
storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall amounts and impacts
should be low. Temperatures will turn from near to slightly below
normal for the workweek to above normal over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A frontal system will bring a chance for rain
across the area Monday.

Latest sfc analysis this afternoon depicted the upstream cold front
over the southern OH Valley. Here locally, subsidence has promoted
mostly sunny skies with light sfc flow.  Temperatures today should
rise into the mid 80s under dry weather.   As we pivot to this
evening and tonight, weak forcing along the advancing front will
trigger some upstream convection over north-central VA. As the front
surges south into our area overnight, this forcing will weaken
substantially and as such not expecting rain to accompany the
frontal advance across central NC tonight.  The front should largely
clear to the NC/SC border by early to mid Monday morning.  Flow
behind the front will turn nely, and some gustiness up to 20 to 25
mph will be possible.

Latest guidance seems more in line with keeping any diurnal
instability largely confined to the coastal areas Monday afternoon.
As such, think the storm chances in our far southeast are fairly
limited.  Elsewhere, a weakly sheared vorticity lobe will pivot
across the southern Appalachians and generate light rain Monday
afternoon. Amounts should range from Trace to maybe a tenth or so up
in the Triad area.  Any linger rain will shift east of our area
through early Tuesday night.

Despite the frontal passage, our dew points don`t overly crash. As
such, there is a good signal for potentially dense fog near sunrise
Tuesday morning. The northern and western Piedmont may be favored
given the QPF appears potentially higher up there.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will bring a decent chance of showers
and isolated storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall
amounts and impacts should be low. Temperatures will turn from near
to slightly below normal for the workweek to above normal over the
weekend.

A weak cold front will cross central NC on Wednesday night. A weak
surface wave will develop along it and move NE through the southern
Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile a mid/upper trough with moderate 500 mb
height falls of 40-60 m in 24 hours will traverse the region. This
is likely to bring some showers to central NC on Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night. QPF in the models has increased slightly, with
a quarter to half inch on average in the ensemble means, highest
east. Still, instability and moisture look limited, so this will put
little dent in the drought, and impacts should overall be minimal.
High pressure will bring dry weather for the remainder of the period.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal from Tuesday
through Friday. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day, with highs in
the lower-to-mid-70s and lows in the upper-40s to mid-50s. Highs
will be in the upper-70s to lower-80s on Wednesday, before turning
about a category cooler on Thursday and Friday behind the weak
front. Warm weather will return over the weekend as the surface high
moves east into the western Atlantic. Forecast highs are in the mid-
to-upper-80s on Saturday and upper-80s to lower-90s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

Prevailing VFR is expected through the critical 6-9 hrs of the 18z
TAFs. A shallow moist air mass over the Coastal Plain may contribute
to another night of shallow ground mist around RWI and FAY ahead of
a cold frontal passage between 09-12z Mon morning, although chances
are better south and east of these terminals. A cold front will
bring low-end gusty northeast winds and perhaps a brief MVFR-IFR cig
in its wake. Diurnal mixing Mon morning into the afternoon should
allow for low-VFR to MVFR cigs to develop, best chances at the Triad
terminals, before lifting through the afternoon.

Outlook: An area of rain is likely across the Piedmont as early as
16z Mon, but more likely 18-22z before decaying as it shifts
eastward; prevailing sub-VFR vsby are not anticipated. Minimal
drying in the low-lvls behind the front may support patchy to areas
of dense fog Tues morning where clearing skies and relatively calm
winds can occur; greatest chances appear to be over the NC Piedmont
(INT/GSO/RDU). Additional flight restrictions and rain are expected
with the passage of another frontal system Wed into Thu. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco
AVIATION...AS