Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

118
FXUS62 KRAH 051055
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
655 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Expansion of today`s heat advisory to include Moore and Hoke
  counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 AM Sunday...

1) Although the hottest temperatures in this heat wave have likely
already occurred, dangerous heat will still be present today and
possibly into the beginning of the work week.

2) Rain chances look to be highest Mon through Tue night. More
typical isolated/scattered summertime showers and storms are then
expected Wed into Fri, before rain chances increase again heading
into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Although the hottest temperatures in this heat wave
have likely already occurred, dangerous heat will still be present
today and possibly into the beginning of the work week.

All three climate sites broke their record high temperature
yesterday, although the forecast does not call for any record high
temperatures today. With upper heights beginning to fall, today`s
highs appear likely to be between 2 and 5 degrees cooler than
yesterday in most locations, although one or two readings of 100
degrees still remain possible. Have made a slight westward expansion
of the heat advisory that was inherited for today, but thunderstorm
coverage expanding into western counties this afternoon should limit
the heat in the Triad and points south.

Temperatures will continue their decline into Monday and Tuesday,
although with high dewpoints, still cannot rule out some locations
reaching a heat index of 105 degrees. Confidence is much lower in
these values being reached in subsequent days with an expected
increase in showers and thunderstorms, discussed in the next key
message.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances look to be highest Mon through Tue
night. More typical isolated/scattered summertime showers and storms
are then expected Wed into Fri, before rain chances increase again
heading into next weekend.

The mid level ridge will have weakened and pushed off the Southeast
coast by early Mon, allowing a shortwave trough from the Great Lakes
to the mid Miss Valley to shift slowly eastward with a positive tilt
through early Wed. While the trough will remain somewhat baggy with
just a modest uptick in mid level flow as it approaches, the
increasingly cyclonic flow aloft, strengthening SW 850 mb winds, and
preceding rise in PW to 125-135% of normal within the surface
prefrontal warm sector should all support at least likely pops Mon
afternoon/evening, and again late Tue through Tue night. While
widespread heavy rain is unlikely, given the potential for slow
storm motion and training/merging/congealing cells, localized higher
rainfall amounts prompting minor urban flooding can`t be ruled out.
WPC has placed a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over all of
central NC Mon, and in eastern sections Tue.

By Wed, as the northern portion of the shortwave trough pushes off
the New England coast and the weakening tail end drifts into central
VA/NC along with the associated surface cold front, the better
moisture and lift should push the higher convection chances to our S
and E. However, if models trend toward a slower/stronger trough and
front, high pops may linger into Wed over our S and E. Otherwise,
with a flattening mid level pattern yielding weak flow aloft and
possible weak surface high pressure brushing through our northern
areas, we should see a trend to more typical summertime coverage of
late-day garden-variety showers and storms. It should be noted that
some deterministic models are showing a much slower and digging mid
level trough, but these solutions may be erroneously absorbing
Midwest MCVs and prompting over-amplification of the shortwave
trough as they progress toward the Appalachians. As a result,
confidence in the details of the pop forecast is low from Wed
through Fri.

As we approach the weekend, the strengthening of an intense mid
level blocking ridge over the Four Corners region will allow
longwave troughing to dig over the eastern CONUS, and this should
mean an upward trend in moisture, clouds, and shower/storm chances
by Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 AM Sunday...

TAF period: There are two possibilities for flight restrictions
through the next 24 hours.

Cannot rule out a passing low cloud at FAY/RWI, but the chances of
this occurring are fading fast.

In addition, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon, primarily impacting INT/GSO, and have added PROB30 groups
to these sites. It appears that the bulk of the coverage should
remain just west of RDU, but later TAF packages may need to add a
PROB30 group there as well.

Outlook: As low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley Monday/Tuesday
and a front sweeps across North Carolina, showers/thunderstorms will
become more widespread at all terminals Monday and Tuesday. Sites
that receive rain are more likely to have flight restrictions around
sunrise the following day. Thunderstorm coverage will be more
scattered Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Records within reach this forecast period...

Record High Temperatures:

July 5: KFAY: 101/2024 KGSO: 98/2012
July 6: KFAY: 100/2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
July 6: KGSO: 76/1999 KRDU: 79/1900 KFAY: 77/2024
July 7: KGSO: 73/2024 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 78/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/GIH
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH