Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

396
FXUS62 KRAH 300628
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
125 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather
through early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM Monday...

* Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 pm for the Piedmont and
  western Sandhills

* Gusty winds 30-35 mph, infrequent 40 mph into the mid-late evening
  hours

Satellite and surface observations currently place the strong cold
just east of the Triad as of 12pm. The cold front will continue to
advance eastward, reaching the coast by early evening. Ahead and
behind the front, we are still expecting a period of gusty winds
into the mid to late evening hours. Gusts ahead of the front are
peaking in the middle 30s mph, with post-frontal gusts in TN and
western NC in the 40 to 45 mph range. These gust of 30-35,
infrequent to 40 mph, will pick up post-frontal with a combination
of strong CAA and deep BL mixing. Temperatures may rise a few more
degrees ahead of the front over the Coastal Plain to some lower 70s,
but once the front passes, temperatures will crash into the 40s
later today and fall into the mid to upper 20s overnight. Wind gusts
should weaken by the late evening and overnight hours, though
occasional gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range are still possible as
wind chills dip into the teens.

A band of light rain has developed ahead of the front over the
central and northeast Piedmont and will advance east into the
Coastal Plain this afternoon before exiting toward the coast by late
afternoon. Rainfall amounts should generally be under a tenth of an
inch.

The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 pm for the Piedmont
and western Sandhills for combined gusty winds and lower humidity. A
further examination this morning led us to believe that perhaps
conditions may not fully meet Red Flag criteria, but it is certainly
warranted if dewpoints can drop faster than expected. The dry air
advection looks to be a tad slower, resulting in overall higher RH
than anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM Monday...

* Marginal fire concerns due to 15-25 mph gusts and low humidity

* Much colder temperatures

Much colder temperatures will be in place Tue, which will feel like
quite the change from the mild holiday weather. Cold high pressure
over the Southern Plains will migrate slowly into the lower MS
valley region. A tight pressure gradient will remain in place with
deep low pressure over eastern Quebec. Highs are expected to be some
8-12 degrees below seasonal normals in the upper 30s to low 40s in
the far to the middle 40s in the south.

Northwest wind gusts will certainly not be as strong as Mon but
range in the 15 to 25 mph range, highest in the eastern Piedmont and
Coastal Plain. Relative humidity values will be in the 25 to 30
percent range, perhaps lower 20s in the southern Piedmont. We
reached out to the NCFS about a possible fire danger statement on
Tue given these parameters. Currently, conditions do not appear to
be as worrisome but we plan to reassess later tonight and with the
NCFS on fuels and expected conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

* Chance of rain Fri evening through Sat evening, with the greatest
  chances across the S.

* Apart from above-normal lows Fri night, temperatures should hold
  within a few degrees of normal into early next week.

As we begin 2026, the large and cold mid level longwave trough
continues to dominate the weather picture over central and eastern
Canada into the eastern CONUS, anchored by a deep low over E James
Bay/Hudson Bay and W Quebec. A strong shortwave trough rotating
through the longwave trough base will swing with a negative tilt
through the St Lawrence Valley, Northeast states, and New England
early Thu, pushing a polar backdoor surface front southward into the
Mid Atlantic region. The LREF ensemble mean suggests that much of
this cold air will hold just N of the VA/NC border Thu, although
passage of the frontal low over New England should lead to veering
surface winds from WSW to NW. We still may see lower thicknesses
dipping into our N, while a modified surface high pressure dome over
the Southeast states will continue to mean mild temps over our S.
Dry weather will continue, especially with a downslope low level
flow, but some jet-induced clouds are possible across the N, along
with gusty winds after mixing begins. Highs Thu will be 45-50 across
the N, nearer the front, with highs 50-57 across the S, within the
mild surface high.

As the shortwave trough shifts over the Canadian Maritimes and NW
Atlantic, we`ll transition to less influence from the polar stream
and greater influence from Pacific waves, including one prominent
wave in particular that tracks from off SoCal early Thu across the
Four Corners through Thu night before amplifying and broadening as
it tracks over the Lower Miss Valley, Deep South, and Southeast
states through Sat night. The various ensemble member systems and
components continue to favor a corresponding surface low that nudges
the Gulf surface high eastward over and E of FL as it moves through
the Mid South and Carolinas, allowing for Gulf-source moisture
return into our region and bringing a chance of rain to portions of
the Carolinas. (Any precip should just be liquid in central NC as
we`ll lack a tap of any particularly cold air or low dewpoints into
the area.) The ensemble clusters were in good agreement yesterday on
pops moving into the SW Fri evening, peaking Sat morning with a good
chance of rain N and likely S and SE, then exiting to the E Sat
night. This is still largely the case, however the LREF 25th
percentile precip shows rain chances just brushing our far S areas,
suggesting that there is a low but non-zero chance that much of the
CWA will stay dry. Will maintain the good chance to low-end likely
pops, peaking Sat morning, with modest amounts, given the upcoming
pattern, but confidence is just medium. Without a tapping of any
polar or subtropical air, we should stay within a category of normal
temps for highs and lows, although Fri night should skew above
normal with the increase in clouds as the wave aloft approaches.
Cloud cover will decrease and exit early Sun morning, with mostly
seasonable temps for Sun-Mon and fair to partly cloudy skies as our
surface pattern becomes more diffuse and as weak PacNW-source mid
level perturbations approach and move through from the WNW. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are likely over the entirety of the 24 hour TAF
period. The main hazard on Tuesday will be gusty winds.
Northwesterly winds look to remain sporadically gusty overnight,
with more frequent gusts likely further north. Wind gusts will
become more frequent again around sunrise as heating will allow for
increased mixing. Winds will remain gusty through Tuesday afternoon,
up to around 15-20 kts, before diminishing around sunset.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. Late Friday
into Saturday, a low pressure system will bring rain and associated
flight restrictions to the region.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1225 AM Tuesday...

Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions will persist Tuesday
and Wednesday when humidity values will be low, in the 20 to 30
percent range during the late morning through early evening hours.
Additionally, wind gusts will be possible up to around 20 to 25 mph
each morning through afternoon.

After coordination with the NCFS, no statements are needed at this
time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...LH
FIRE WEATHER...LH/Badgett