Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

604
FXUS62 KRAH 121027
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
627 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 257 AM Sunday...

1) Afternoon and evening showers/tstms today, some possibly severe
with damaging wind gusts and flash flood potential.

2) Flash flood risk, albeit marginal, continues on Monday (and
noticeably cooler, too!).

3) Heat returns midweek, followed by severe weather chances late in
the week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 257 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Afternoon and evening showers/tstms today, some
possibly severe with damaging wind gusts and flash flood potential.

The combination of a weak backdoor style front moving southward
across our area today, coupled with upper energy moving east from
the upper trough over the lower Ohio Valley and TN Valley...will set
the synoptic stage for a round of showers/tstms later this afternoon
through the evening across central NC.  Two primary hazards are
possible with these storms, including:

- Localized flash flooding due to elevated (2+ inch) PWATs, vigorous
moisture transport toward the frontal zone, an elevated instability
all resulting in localized intense rainfall rates.  All of central
NC is in Slt Risk (level 2 of 4) ERO for today and this evening.
- Isolated to scattered severe tstms with damaging winds the primary
threat.  This is due to the ongoing elevated instability and
interaction with aforementioned frontal boundary resulting in
localized enhanced updrafts. The southern half of central NC will
likely have the best chance to see said severe storms due to
southward moving frontal zone and its position when storms move
through later today.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Flash flood risk, albeit marginal, continues on
Monday (and noticeably cooler, too!).

Additional bands of brief heavy rain appear possible on Monday with
central NC just north of the stalled boundary to our south.  While
confidence is fairly low attm wrt how much rain we may see and which
areas see the heaviest rain, the potential is there due to our area
being on the cooler side of the boundary while a weak closed upper
trough remains positioned across the southern Appalachians with a
shear axis stretched across our state and modest moist southerly
flow overrunning the aforementioned boundary.  It`s also worth
noting that in addition to the said rain threat, thanks to cloud
cover and our area being north of the boundary, temp-wise it will
feel noticeably different and pleasantly cooler than the recent
weeks of hot weather we`ve had.  Highs on Monday will range from the
mid 70s across the Triad to lower to mid 80s across our southern
zones near the SC border.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Heat returns midweek, followed by severe weather
chances late in the week and weekend.

On Tuesday, the area will still be under northeast flow, with
temperatures still on the lower side with generally the 80s. Model
and ensemble guidance continues to show the trough at mid-levels
from Monday situated over the TN valley into portions of AL/GA. With
that, there will still remain a chance of diurnal storms, primarily
for southern and western areas.

Anomalous ridging over the Northern Great Plains will build into the
area midweek Wednesday and largely be in place into Friday. During
this time, 850-mb temperatures rise at or above 20 degC, supportive
of mid to upper 90s. The HeatRisk category reaches a 3 out of 4
Thursday and Friday over portions of the southern Piedmont,
Sandhills, Triangle, and Coastal Plain, where heat indices could
range from 100 to 105.

As we get closer to the tail end of the week and the weekend,
ensemble guidance shows a northwest flow pattern setting up, with
troughing from the Mid-Atlantic into possibly the Great Lakes. This
pattern can typically favor MCS development, given sufficient
instability and shear. SPC will update their extended range outlook
early this morning, but their previous outlook showed a slight risk
on Friday for portions of central NC. Lots of questions remain to be
answered, such as timing and location, as guidance is still showing
a fair amount of spread. This increased storm threat could extend
through the weekend as some AI guidance suggests.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 627 AM Sunday...

Through 12Z Monday: The very localized pockets of IFR vsby will burn
off shortly, then look for VFR condition through the rest of this
morning and early afternoon hours until scattered showers/tstms
expected to develop to our west move across central NC between 20z-
03Z.  These storms will bring localized/tempo IFR conditions along
with brief variable wind gusts.  After the storms exit, look for VFR
conditions to briefly return, but will be followed by lowering cigs
and flt conditions overnight as NE flow develops across central NC.

After 06Z Monday: Flight conditions expected to become IFR and
possibly some LIFR by early Monday.  Rain chances will continue on
Monday before decreasing Tue-Thu with VFR conditions expected to
return by then.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

July 16: KGSO: 99/1915 KRDU: 101/1887 KFAY: 103/1937

July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 16: KGSO: 75/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 78/1992

July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KRDU: 80/1887 KFAY: 77/2019

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np/AK
AVIATION...np
CLIMATE...RAH