Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

499
FXUS62 KRAH 150558
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
157 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated aviation discussion to reflect the 06z TAFs. A full
  discussion will be issued shortly.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

1. Strong to severe storms will be possible today. Water loaded
downbursts will bring a primary hazard of damaging straight-line
winds.

2. There will be minimal showers and storms Monday through Wednesday
before widespread precipitation arrives on Friday.

3. Heat returns for Thursday and possibly Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 16Z, many of the CAMs (and esp the HRRR) have
underrepresented the existing convection that is currently moving
across the NC mountains and that raises concerns regarding
downstream convective evolution across central NC later today.

Overall, the severe weather threat remains dependent on the degree
of convective organization that can be maintained as mountain
convection moves east and interacts with a moderately unstable and
very moist air mass across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. MLCAPE
values of 1500-2500 J/kg (higher CAPE values east), steep low-level
lapse rates, and DCAPE supportive of strong downdrafts should favor
damaging straight-line winds as the primary hazard.  In addition,
the CAMs which are more robust with convection evolution and
coverage today also appear to be taking advantage of pre-existing
mesoscale dewpoint boundaries and perhaps the Piedmont trough
convergence and thus depict widely scattered single-cell storms
developing ahead of the convection that is currently to our west.
Given the aforementioned CAM uncertainties, greater forecast weight
will be placed on observational trends and the evolving mesoscale
environment.   Its worth noting again that any of the
stronger/taller cells later today will be capable of producing
localized damaging wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A front should generally be along the I-95 corridor
Monday morning and will continue to drift to the Atlantic coastline
by Tuesday morning before moving offshore on Wednesday. With central
North Carolina on the cooler and drier side of the front, the
chances for precipitation the next few days should be greatly
reduced. Any diurnally driven storms Monday through Wednesday should
be east of I-95 and relatively isolated in coverage. The next
widespread chance for precipitation will come with low pressure that
will pass over the Great Lakes on Thursday and continue northeast
along the Canadian/United States border Friday and Saturday. The
associated cold front could bring a late day storm to the Triad on
Thursday, but will bring most of its precipitation to central North
Carolina Friday and Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High temperatures will be noticeably cooler on
Monday, with values 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Sunday. Tuesday will
vie for the coolest day of the week with all locations remaining in
the 80s. Temperatures will then begin to rise again by Wednesday
with a return to the 90s, and some locations pushing triple digits
by Thursday. The timing of the next cold front will determine how
warm temperatures rise on Friday, but Saturday should drop back into
the 80s again. With lower humidity values through mid week, heat
indices will be similar to air temperatures Monday through
Wednesday. Increasing humidity along with increasing temperatures
may require a heat advisory on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 AM Monday...

An area of decaying light rain near and southeast of the Triad
terminals may make it to RDU and produce VFR light rain between 6-8z
before collapsing all together. A cold front analyzed just east of
the central Appalachians has produced brief gusty northwest winds 5-
10 sustained and 15 to 25 kt gusts) after its initial passage before
gradually relaxing, and may do so over the Triad terminals between 6-
8z. An area of MVFR/IFR cigs are seen developing in the wake of the
mid-clouds departure over southwest NC into upstate SC. This area of
cigs may continue to expand eastward and reach FAY ahead of the cold
frontal passage. Low MVFR cigs are forecast, but cigs may drop as
low as 600 ft. Low-end gusty northwest winds are expected through
the morning hours behind the fropa after sunrise, before gradually
relaxing through the mid-afternoon.

Outlook: High confidence in VFR conditions through Tuesday with only
increasing mid/high clouds and virga on Tuesday. Moisture return
within the southwesterly flow may result in sub-VFR conditions,
better chances around FAY, late Tues night into Wed morning. Breezy
southwesterly winds of 15kt gusting to 25-35 kts at times Thurs into
Friday, maximized with daytime heating. Diurnal showers/storms
chances return Thurs with signals of more widespread precipitation
sometime between Thur night into Fri night with a disturbance
approaching from the southern Plains, but confidence on timing is
low.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015  KFAY: 102/1944


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 15: KGSO: 74/2022  KRDU: 78/2025  KFAY: 76/1926

June 18: KGSO: 73/2018  KRDU: 77/2025  KFAY: 76/2017

June 19: KGSO: 77/1970  KRDU: 73/2025  KFAY: 77/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION... np/TG
AVIATION...AS
CLIMATE... RAH