Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

533
FXUS62 KRAH 101116
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
615 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

* Warmer today, 10-20 F above average and a category or two above
  the previous forecast and the most recent National Blend of Models

* A good chance to likely probability of rain across srn zones Wed
  morning, followed by possible Increased Fire Danger Wed afternoon
  (where rain does not occur prior)

* High confidence in at least a period of light to moderate rain
  between Saturday evening into Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

1) Much warmer between a warm front that will retreat newd across
the Carolinas and VA today and a pair of cold fronts that will move
across cntl NC Wed and Wed evening

2) A good chance to likely probability of rain across srn zones Wed
morning, followed by possible Increased Fire Danger Wed afternoon
(where rain does not occur prior)

3) Widespread light to moderate rain is becoming increasingly likely
late Sat night through Sun. Forecast details, such as amounts and
areal coverage, remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Much warmer between a warm front that will retreat
newd across the Carolinas and VA today and a pair of cold fronts
that will move across cntl NC Wed and Wed evening

A warm front now over GA, one which separated on Mon 70sF from wrn
GA wwd and across the Gulf Coast states from 40s-50sF across the
Carolinas, will retreat newd across the Carolinas this morning and
VA this afternoon. The portion of the warm sector that reached ATL,
BNA, and BHM with observed high temperatures of 68, 71, and 75F on
Mon, respectively, will overspread cntl and srn NC today. While
unseasonably warm, daily records should be safe but approached
within 5 degrees of the 1938 one of 74F at GSO.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A good chance to likely probability of rain across
srn zones Wed morning, followed by possible Increased Fire Danger
Wed afternoon (where rain does not occur prior)

A mid/upr-level cyclone over the srn Baja peninsula will eject ewd
and across the srn Plains and lwr MS Valley through tonight and
across the Southeast early Wed.

Meanwhile at the surface, a couple of closely-spaced cold fronts now
stretching across IA/KS and MN/ND, respectively, will progress sewd
and across the Middle Atlantic tonight and cntl NC Wed and Wed
evening. A band of rain will probably accompany the deamplifying
wave aloft and surface cold front across srn NC early Wed, where a
tenth of an inch or so of rain will be possible. Post-frontal drying
will be augmented by downslope flow, such that surface dewpoints
will decrease through the 20s-30sF and be accompanied by still mild,
compresionally-warmed 60sF temperatures Wed afternoon. Consequent
afternoon RH around 25% will result. Nwly, post-frontal surface
winds will also increase and become gusty into the 20s kts and
support meteorological conditions supportive of Increased Fire
Danger. Colder air will not arrive until the secondary cold front
sweeps through the region Wed evening, with temperatures returning
to near average, upr 20s to lwr 30s, by Thu morning.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread light to moderate rain is becoming
increasingly likely late Sat night through Sun. Forecast details,
such as amounts and areal coverage, remain uncertain.

A strong mid/upper level short-wave will move across the southern
Plains/Deep South Friday/Saturday before moving across the southeast
Sunday into Monday. This system will feature a swly surge of
anomalous PWAT ( up to ~1 to 1.25 inches; ~200 to 250 % of normal)
into central NC by Sunday afternoon.  At the sfc, a 1030 mb high off
the New England coast will extend lingering nely flow across central
NC Saturday/Sunday. Further west a sfc low will develop somewhere
over the TN valley before advecting east and transferring energy to
an offshore low through Monday via Miller B style.

This setup will likely lead to, at the very least, beneficial light
to at times moderate rain over central NC during this period. There
still remains some uncertainty wrt to the actual path of the sfc low
(and the strength of upper forcing) and consequently dialing in QPF
this far out is challenging. However, latest LREF ensemble
probabilities for at least an inch of rain hover in the 50 to 60%
range for much of our area. We`ll see how things trend over the next
few days.

While some locations south and east of Raleigh may get into the warm
sector Sunday afternoon, most guidance keeps the best combination of
shear and instability to our south. As such, think that any severe
risk, if any, should remain to our south at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 615 AM Tuesday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions over the next 24
hours. Low-level wind shear is expected to develop at all terminals
this evening in advance of a cold front, with stronger wind aloft
out of the west-southwest. Skies should clear out today before
another round of high clouds arrive this evening. The wind will be
out of the southwest around 5 kt.

Outlook: Low-level wind shear is likely to continue until a cold
front moves through Wednesday morning. There will be a chance of
rain and restrictions with the cold front Wednesday morning,
primarily at FAY/RWI. There will also be another chance of
restrictions and precipitation Friday. The rest of the period should
have dry VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/NTL
AVIATION...Green