Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS62 KRAH 040613
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
113 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

* No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

1) Cold air damming slowly erodes this afternoon and
evening, with patchy fog in our southeast early Wednesday.

2) Well-above normal temperatures and near record breaking warmth
expected late week into the weekend.

3) Slight chance for isolated showers and storms Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold air damming slowly erodes this afternoon and
evening, with patchy fog in our southeast early Wednesday.

This morning`s GSO 12z sounding showed a pronounced inversion in the
lowest 3000 ft AGL as a result of the cold air damming. This cold
air damming is slowly eroding as the high continues to shift east
out over the north Atlantic. The latest satellite imagery reveals
the low stratus slowly eroding from south to north, with sunshine in
the far south Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. This trend
should continue, with partial sunshine possible by late this
afternoon over the rest of central NC. The Triad may not fully break
out of the clouds, but these patterns are always difficult to
forecast. For now, temperatures were kept from this morning, with
mid 50s in the northwest and low/mid 60s in the far south and
southeast. If the Triad does not clear out, they could be stuck in
the 40s for highs. Tonight, there remains the potential for fog from
the Sandhills into the Coastal Plain, mainly along/east of I-95. Fog
should lift and disperse by 9-10 am Wed, followed by warmer
temperatures Wed afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Well-above normal temperatures and near record
breaking warmth expected late week into the weekend.

As surface high pressure shifts offshore Wednesday, weak upper-level
ridging will maintain warm southerly flow across the region. High
temperatures tomorrow will reach the mid to upper 70s. On Thursday,
warm southerly flow will increase and all of Central NC will be in
the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. By Friday and into Saturday,
temperatures and dew points will continue to increase ahead of a
frontal boundary stretching across the Mississippi Valley. Highs are
expected to run 2025 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday, with
highs nearing record values in the low 80s (see climate section
below).

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler early next week but remain
well above normal, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s to
low 80s which will be around 1020 degrees above normal.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Slight chance for isolated showers and storms
Sunday into Monday.

The next precipitation chance is expected to arrive Sunday as a
frontal boundary approaches the Mid-Atlantic. However a few models
are showing precipitation west of US-1 as early as Saturday
afternoon/evening. Ensemble guidance suggests a good chance of
measurable precipitation across central NC especially Sunday and
Monday. There is considerable spread in timing and coverage tied to
the frontal boundary and how far east the boundary will actually
make it. For now, the highest PoPs are focused Sunday afternoon and
evening as the front attempts to begin to move across the region,
but is expected to stall along the Foothills. Lingering showers and
isolated storms could stick around through Monday before clearing
out Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

Residual moisture from widespread IFR-MVFR ceilings over the
Piedmont on Tue will continue to pool at the base of a lingering
temperature inversion based in MVFR range and manifest as MVFR
stratocumulus ceilings at GSO and INT this morning. If these
ceilings disperse as expected by 10-12Z, a short period of radiation
fog will be possible there, and also at RDU. Meanwhile to the east,
where Tue afternoon-evening clearing was most pronounced and where
low-level moisture will remain relatively maximized through the ern
Carolinas, areas of LIFR-IFR fog and stratus will continue to
develop and expand through the Coastal Plain and over and especially
east of RWI and FAY this morning. Daytime heating should cause any
flight restrictions that develop this morning to disperse to VFR by
~14Z, with a swly surface wind that will strengthen to between 6-12
kts and which may gust briefly and occasionally into the mid teens
kts from late this morning through early this afternoon.

Outlook: While areas of stratus and/or fog will be possible each
morning through the rest of the week, probability of occurrence will
be highest at ern sites (ie. FAY and RWI), where low-level moisture
will be richest and deepest.

&&

Record High Temperatures:

March 5:
KGSO: 81/1967
KRDU: 83/1967

March 6:
KGSO: 78/2022
KRDU: 82/1967
KFAY: 86/1918

March 7:
KGSO: 81/1974
KRDU: 85/1974
KFAY: 84/1961

March 8:
KGSO: 83/2000
KFAY: 87/1974

March 9:
KGSO: 81/1974
KRDU: 84/2009

March 10:
KGSO: 78/2016
KRDU: 81/1974
KFAY: 84/1974


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 5:
KFAY: 63/1976

March 6:
KRDU: 64/1967
KFAY: 65/1961

March 7:
KGSO: 63/1956
KRDU: 64/1956
KFAY: 65/1961

March 8:
KGSO: 57/1946
KRDU: 60/1946
KFAY: 63/1961

March 9:
KGSO: 61/1921
KRDU: 61/1921
KFAY: 62/1980

March 10:
KGSO: 58/2016
KRDU: 57/2020
KFAY: 65/1964

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/Kren
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS