Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

020
FXUS62 KRAH 041100
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 AM EDT Thu Jun 04 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

1) Increasingly hot, but with low humidity and no rain through Sunday

2) Shower/thunderstorm chances return Sunday night through early week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increasingly hot, but with low humidity and no rain
through Sunday

A mid-level anticyclone, centered in 00Z/4th upr air charts over the
OH and TN Valleys, with observed 500-700 mb heights between the 90th
percentile and max moving average, will migrate across the Southeast
and into the Gulf through the weekend.

At the surface and through the same time, an underlying continental
high over the Middle Atlantic will migrate offshore and extend from
near Bermuda to the South Atlantic states, while a trough will
develop and sharpen in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians.

Deep subsidence, sswly low-level flow Fri-Sun, and also downslope
flow in the lee of the srn Appalachians on Sun, will favor
progressively hotter temperatures through the period, increasing
from mid/upr 80s today to mid/upr 90s by Sun. The increasingly hot
temperatures will be accompanied by low relative humidity values in
the 20s percent each afternoon, except 25-35 percent by Sun, when
surface dewpoint values will have modified into the mid 50s to
around 60 F, after increasing about 5 F each day from the mid 40s F
today. Despite associated heat index values that will be lower than
the ambient air temperature, Moderate to Major experimental Heat
Risk is indicated for Sat-Sun.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Shower/thunderstorm chances return Sunday
night through early week.

The ridging over central NC will start to breakdown on Sunday, which
should allow a weak cold front to move through sometime Sunday night
or Monday. This should allow for isolated to scattered showers, with
potentially a few embedded thunderstorms, to move through the region
Sunday night and through the day on Monday. Ensemble guidance is
showing generally light amounts of rainfall from this system. For
instance, the accumulated precipitation between now and 8am Tuesday
is just 0.25 to 0.5 inch from the 50th percentile of the GEFS, and
at the same time is just 0.1 to 0.25 inch from the 50th percentile
of the European ensemble. From Tuesday through the rest of the
extended period, we should generally be under the influence of a
Bermuda high. This will bring additional warm, moist air to the
region and allow for a more summer-like pattern of diurnal showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM Thursday...

High pressure and associated continental/dry air will crest over the
Carolinas today, with related VFR conditions and light and variable
surface wind expected through the 12Z TAF period.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front will settle into cntl NC with an
associated chance of showers/storms late Sun into Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/LBH
AVIATION...MWS