Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

657
FXUS62 KRAH 310652
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
252 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026


.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Confidence in the evolution of the weather pattern and the
  chance of any impactful rain next week continues to decrease.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

1) Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and an increase in
cloudiness is expected this weekend.

2) While the next best chance of rain will be mid to
late next week, forecast confidence in specific timing and amounts
remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and an increase in
cloudiness is expected this weekend.

The mid and upper level flow will become more southwesterly and
somewhat perturbed over the weekend resulting in increasing
moisture and periods of mid and high cloudiness mixed with some
sunshine. Despite the increasing moisture aloft, dry conditions
are expected with a stable and dry airmass near the surface.
A surge of cooler and drier air will continue to spread
southward across central NC this morning behind a cold front
that was now pushing into SC and GA. Low level thickness values
forecast for 12Z this morning will range between 1350 and 1365m
compared to the 1380 to 1385m range on Friday morning. This 15
to 20m drop in thickness values along with periods of high
cloudiness will result in highs of 64 north to 71 south which is
within a few degrees of the average high for this time of year.
With little change in airmass and conditions, highs on Sunday
will be very similar todays. Lows on Saturday and Sunday night
will range in the 40s which is near to about 5 degrees above
average.

KEY MESSAGE 2... While the next best chance of rain will be mid
to late next week, forecast confidence in specific timing and
amounts remains low.

The primary driver in our next precipitation chances remains the
slowly progressive low pressure system over the central CONUS and
Mississippi Valley midweek and how it evolves into the late week
period. Forecast confidence remains below-normal for this time range
as model guidance varies greatly on a wide variety of solutions that
will impact the sensible weather across the Carolinas.

Cluster analysis of the leading two solutions from the earlier 12z
guidance is lining up with the trend within 18z ensemble guidance
favoring a northeast lift of low pressure system from the
Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region. If this trend
continues and remains void the splitting mid/upper-lvl low scenario,
forcing for ascent for meaningful precipitation may be extremely
limited over the Carolinas. These solutions still do produce light
rain totals over the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, but
reasonable high-end amounts struggle to exceed 0.5" in 24 hours for
the northern/eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain where moderate to
extreme drought persists.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence of VFR conditions across the
area during the 24 hour TAF period.

Increasing high and mid level moisture will result in increasing and
thickening high-level cirrus clouds through the period with some mid
clouds arriving late. CIGS will remain above 15kft through the TAF
period.

A cold front will push south of the area early this morning with a
north to northeasterly wind spreading across the area at 5 to 10
kts. A strengthening low level jet just atop the boundary layer may
briefly mix to the surface and result in some brief gustiness to
around 20kts before daybreak. This stronger flow will also result in
some marginal LLWS but magnitudes are low enough to omit it from the
TAFs. As the stable boundary layer collapses and mixing commences, a
few hours of gusty winds up to 18 kts is possible during the mid
morning, otherwise northeast winds at around 10kts are expected this
afternoon with light northeast winds after sunset.

Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through the middle of the
upcoming work week with a small chance of some daybreak stratus/fog
across eastern locations on Wednesday morning. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/Swiggett
AVIATION...Blaes