Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS62 KRAH 230501
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
100 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from earlier forecasts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

1) Continued above normal temperatures through Saturday.

2) Measurable precipitation chances and frequency of events increase
starting this weekend through the end of April.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued above normal temperatures through
Saturday.

The combination of surface high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas
extending over the Southeast coast and an 850 mb anticyclone
centered near SAV will continue to bring above-normal low level
thicknesses to the Carolinas through Sat, with values up to 25-30 m
above normal. We`ll maintain a weak NW steering flow aloft, and with
a lack of moisture influx through the low and mid levels, any clouds
will be largely limited to sct to briefly bkn high-base cu each
afternoon today and Fri. This high insolation with elevated
thicknesses favors highs around 10-15 degrees above normal, in the
mid 80s to around 90. Our Heat Risk is forecast to be a Level 1-of-
4/Minor once again today, suggesting heat that will mainly affect
those extremely sensitive to heat. But by Fri, with a third straight
day of atypical early-season heat, our Heat Risk rises to a Level 2-
of-4/Moderate for portions of central NC, including from the
Triangle area and N Sandhills into the Coastal Plain, indicating
that this heat may begin to affect anyone without cooling or
hydration. Those who must work or exert in direct sunshine at the
hottest part of the day should be extra cautious, stay well
hydrated, and take cooling breaks in the shade.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Measurable precipitation chances and frequency of
events increase starting this weekend through the end of April.

Guidance continues to suggest two main chances for measurable
rainfall through the forecast period; late Saturday into Sunday and
Tuesday.

Late Saturday into Sunday: A convectively modified shortwave
ejecting over the Ohio Valley Sat afternoon is expected to shift
across the Mid-Atlantic Saturday evening into Sunday morning. This
feature, along with eastward advection of seasonably anomalous deep-
layer moisture, will help direct convectively perturbed westerly
flow over the region. Forcing for ascent will be localized along the
track of MCV`s from upstream convection. This will lead to locally
enhanced convection with widespread rain not expected. Expect
primarily light QPF, with mostly 0.25 or less. However, 0.5 to 1
inch local totals will be possible, especially north.

Tuesday: A more significant trough is forecast to pivot from the
Four Corners Region to the Great Lakes from Sunday to early Tuesday
around the parent closed-low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Once again,
our region will likely see a glancing influence from the trough and
mainly directs another plume of seasonably anomalous deep-layer
moisture and perturbed westerly flow. Some light stratiform rain may
fall over portions of the region Tuesday morning. Then, Tuesday
afternoon and evening increased low level moisture and warm boundary
layer temperatures may support scattered afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions are likely to persist over the next 24 hours, with
high confidence. Sct-bkn mid level clouds currently drifting SSE
over the area will continue to break up as the disturbance aloft
which generated these clouds (and a few weak radar returns as well)
weakens and pushes to our SE. Sct mid level clouds are possible this
upcoming afternoon, but otherwise skies will remain fair to clear.
Surface winds will be light and variable except 8-12 kts from the
WNW (gradually shifting to W and WSW) 14z-23z.

Looking beyond 06z Fri, VFR conditions should dominate through Sat
morning. The chance for sub-VFR conditions will increase as showers
and a few storms sweep through the area from late Sat afternoon
through Sun morning. Another round of showers and storms with
possible sub-VFR conditions will occur late Mon night through Tue
evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Badgett
AVIATION...Hartfield