Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

816
FXUS62 KRAH 121848
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
248 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

Thunderstorms have exited the area and the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

1) A post frontal region of stratiform rain behind a potent
upper-level system and cold front will exit the central NC late
this afternoon with gusty northwest winds diminishing this
evening.

2) There is a risk of severe weather on Monday as a strong
cold front sweeps across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

Key message 1: A post frontal region of stratiform rain behind
a potent upper-level system and cold front will exit the central
NC late this afternoon with gusty northwest winds diminishing
this evening.

A much needed rainfall of a half inch to three-quarters of an
inch fell across much of central NC late this morning and
afternoon. A combination of synoptically driven wind gusts and
embedded convective wind gusts resulted in a generous supply of
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph across the area today. Isolated gusts
of 50 mph or more were noted with some thunderstorms which were
associated with scattered reports of downed trees, especially
to the south and east of Raleigh.

The rain should lift north and east and exit central NC by 5pm
or so. Rapid clearing behind the system has arrived in the Triad
and should result in at least a brief period of sunshine across
the area before sunset. Gusty winds this afternoon will continue
to diminish this evening with night northerly winds expected
overnight. Strong cold advection should result in low level
thickness values that fall to between 1300 and 1310m by daybreak
Friday. Have adjusted mins tonight to a few degrees below the
NBM with lows in the lower 30s and perhaps a few spots in the
upper 20s. -Blaes


Key message 2: There is a risk of severe weather on Monday as a
strong cold front sweeps across the region.

The only chance of rain in the forecast after this afternoon will
come on Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers will move in from the
south on Sunday with an isolated thunderstorm possible in the
afternoon. However, the greatest chance of rain will come Monday
from a cold front moving east with a low moving over the Great
Lakes. The latest guidance continues to shift the arrival of the
cold front slightly later, with the peak of the rain expected to
arrive Monday afternoon. Overnight, the Storm Prediction Center
added a 15% risk for severe weather across our area on Monday, the
equivalent of a slight (level 2 of 5) risk. This threat level is
usually only issued about twice a year in our area this far out.
With modest instability and strong, veering wind shear, this setup
indeed looks favorable for severe weather potential. Keep an eye on
the forecast as we get closer to this event. The chance for showers
and thunderstorms will come to an end Monday night. -TG


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Widespread rain will exit central NC over the next few hours
resulting in improving aviation conditions this evening and
continuing overnight. Visible satellite imagery shows that rapid
clearing is arriving in the western Piedmont with VFR conditions
now reaching KINT. Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions across the
remainder of central will quickly improve late this afternoon
with VFR conditions expected areawide by 00Z. Clear skies are
expected overnight. The SREF and some guidance including the NAM
suggest a small potential for some patchy fog, this appears
most favored across eastern locations where the low level drying
will be the slowest. Mainly clear skies are expected on Friday
with some patchy high cirrus clouds.

Gusty northwesterly winds will linger across eastern locations
over the next few hours but otherwise quickly diminish this
evening. Light northerly winds at 5kts or so is expected late
night. Winds will veer around to south and south-southwesterly
on Friday at around 10 kts with gusts at times to 20 kts.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue for the remainder of
Friday into Saturday. Stronger warm advection winds are possible
Friday and again on Monday. Increasing moisture in a return
flow pattern could result in some stratus on Sunday and spotty
precipitation. A strong cold front will bring the risk of
showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds on Monday.
-Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/Green
AVIATION...Blaes