Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

855
FXUS62 KRAH 220959
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
600 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

* No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

1) Record highs likely today with an airmass typical of late
June to early July

2) The combination of unseasonably warm temperatures, low humidity,
dry fuels, and breezy conditions behind a cold front favor an
elevated fire danger risk on Monday.

3) A strong cold front could move across the region Fri-Sat,
specifics are uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Record highs likely today with an airmass typical
of late June to early July

Record hot temperatures are expected today ahead of a cold front
slated to move through on Monday. At the surface, southwest flow
will be in full swing this afternoon with high pressure stretching
from the Gulf into the western Atlantic. The low-level airmass is
typical of what we see in late June or early July over central NC,
supportive of mid to upper 80s for most places. Even a few spots
touching 90 degrees over the Triangle and Sandhills is not out
of the realm of possibilities. The NBM shows a 20-40 percent
chance of 90 or greater in these areas. Our forecast highs will
likely tie or break the record high values at all of our climate
sites. Very warm temperatures are forecast to persist tonight,
with lows some 20-25 degrees above normal in the 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The combination of unseasonably warm
temperatures, low humidity, dry fuels, and breezy conditions
behind a cold front favor an elevated fire danger risk on Monday.

A moisture-starved cold front will move through central NC in the
late morning and early afternoon on Monday, with slight chance to
low-end chance of showers and storms, mainly in the east and
southeast. High temperatures should reach the low-mid-70s north to
low-mid 80s south. Dew points will crash behind the front, dropping
into the upper 20s NW to mid-upper 40s SE by 00Z Tue, with RH values
of to 25-35% across the Piedmont by mid afternoon. Post-frontal
gustiness could also reach 20-25 mph according to GFS and NAM
forecast soundings. While winds look too low for Red Flag Warning
criteria, these factors combined with dry fuels could still result
in an increased fire danger risk in the west on Monday from mid
afternoon to early evening. The SPC outlook for Mon continues to
highlight that area in a 40% likelihood for critical conditions.
Some will depend on the frontal orientation, as most guidance seems
to suggest post-frontal winds having more of a northerly vs westerly
component, which would somewhat limit downsloping potential. While
an IFD may eventually be needed, for now continue to highlight in
our HWO.


KEY MESSAGE 3... A strong cold front could move across the
region Fri-Sat, specifics are uncertain.

Aloft, the longwave trough will amplify (though the degree varies
between the medium-range guidance) and help suppress the ridge
southward as a couple of shortwaves move across the Great Lakes/OH
Valley from Thu-Sat. At the surface, a lee trough will develop
Thu/Thu night, and remain in place until the cold front, approaching
from the NW, moves into the area Fri/Fri night. Despite fropa timing
differences, operational runs of both the EC an GFS have a surface
low over the Carolinas as the front moves through. Canadian high
pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front over
the weekend. Showers will be possible with the fropa. There will be
a significant temperature change with the front, swinging from well
above normal Thu night/Fri, to near normal Fri night-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 AM Sunday...

An area of showers has developed across the Triad terminals early
this morning in association with a northward moving warm front and
moist advection. Most of these showers will dissipate after
sunrise, but cannot rule out a brief shower prior to 13z at GSO,
INT, and RDU. Confidence is too low to include a shower chance at
FAY, but it cannot be ruled out into mid-morning prior to the warm
frontal passage. As the warm front lifts north, weak south to
southwest winds will increase out of the southwest during the
afternoon as a lee trough develops. Surface gusts between 18-24 kt
will be favored until 22-23z, after which sustained winds from the
south-southwest will hover in the 8-11 kt range. A 40-45 kt LLJ will
develop tonight between 06z-12z Mon and favor a period of LLWS at
RDU, FAY, RWI. This may end up being mechanical turbulence, but
opted for LLWS given expected decoupling of surface winds.

Outlook: A strong cold front will bring a chance of a few showers or
storms Mon aftn/eve, most favored at FAY/RWI. Gusty winds of 20-30
kt will be possible at all sites Mon through Mon night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 22: KGSO: 85/1948 KRDU: 89/1907 KFAY: 88/1948

March 23: KFAY: 86/1948

March 27: KFAY: 87/1946


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 22: KGSO: 63/1948 KFAY: 63/1948

March 23: KFAY: 64/1952

March 27: KGSO: 60/2007 KFAY: 65/1949

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/10/Luchetti
AVIATION...Kren
CLIMATE...RAH