Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

404
FXUS62 KRAH 201138
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
635 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 359 AM Friday...

* Dense Fog Advisory issued for areas of dense fog as low as quarter
  mile at times across the central to northern Piedmont and Coastal
  Plain through 10 am this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 310 AM Friday...

1) A pre-frontal trough/confluence axis and focus for scattered
showers and perhaps an isolated storm will move across cntl NC
today. Meanwhile, a dryline will likely move across wrn NC and
into the srn and wrn NC Piedmont by late afternoon. Critical
fire weather conditions may briefly result over the wrn/srn
Piedmont Fri afternoon.

2) A couple rounds of stratiform rain appear likely Saturday
and again on Sunday. Some wet snow may mix in Sunday evening
into the early overnight hours near the NC/VA border, but
confidence in any accumulation is low.

3) Below normal temperatures expected early to middle of next
week, with low confidence in a cold front bringing rain late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A pre-frontal trough/confluence axis and focus
for scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm will move
across cntl NC today. Meanwhile, a dryline will likely move
across wrn NC and into the srn and wrn NC Piedmont by late
afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions may briefly result
over the wrn/srn Piedmont Fri afternoon.

The stalled boundary has migrated a bit further
south into the northern/central Sandhills early this morning
according to latest sfc analysis. Just south of the boundary,
warm sly flow persists with temperatures in the mid 60s.
Locations north of the boundary have dipped into the mid 40s
across the NC/VA border to mid to upper 50s down in the northern
Sandhills. Areas north of the boundary, especially up across
the NC/VA border will continue to see areas of dense fog through
a little after sunrise coinciding the boundary`s northward
retreat into VA.

Regional mosaic radar depicted a thin line of pre-frontal
convection extending from central Mississippi northeast through
western TN/central KY/southern WV. As we progress into the
morning hours, this line will largely wash out over the higher
terrain to our west. However, guidance is still bullish on
sending a pre-frontal dryline across central NC this afternoon
ahead of a cold frontal passage tonight. Upper forcing will
largely maximize north of us, and as such, lift will largely be
confined to the dryline and developing pre-frontal trough. As
such, scattered showers are possible, but overall coverage
should be limited as should amounts (pockets of a few tenths
possible, but largely a few hundreds here or there most likely).
Increasing theta-e behind the retreating boundary embedded
within deep southerly flow will allow for upwards of 500 J/kg of
SBCAPE to develop later this morning into the afternoon. As
such, can`t rule out some isolated thunder with this passing
scattered convection.

In addition to the passing convection, strong swly sfc gusts of
25 to 35 mph are likely this morning into the early afternoon
period especially across the Sandhills/Coastal Plain. Equally as
strong wly gusts are then likely across western/southern
Piedmont post dryline passage. Temperatures will rise to near-
record levels in these areas, and as a result, critical fire
weather conditions may develop across western areas for a few
hours this afternoon.

Any lingering convection should move east of central NC by late
afternoon. Overnight lows will remain mild in the lower 50s
tonight under mostly dry conditions till closer to sunrise
Saturday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A couple rounds of stratiform rain appear
likely Saturday and again on Sunday. Some wet snow may mix in
Sunday evening into the early overnight hours near the NC/VA
border, but confidence in any accumulation is low.

A rare dryline is expected to settle across southern NC into central
GA by Sat morning with considerable low-level drying and minimal
cooling behind the front, resulting in 15-30 degree dew point
depressions. This will set up the potential for an insitu CAD regime
that will be highly dependent on the amount of rainfall on Sat that
can lock-in a cooler/denser airmass at the surface via diabatic
cooling. Overall the rainfall amounts are expected to be light and
not impactful, but this results in low forecast confidence for
temperatures on Sat with a 10-15 degree range in high temps in the
latest guidance, especially across the Piedmont.

After a brief lull in stratiform rain Sat evening, initially
weak low pressure is expected to develop along the main
baroclinic boundary loosely around SC, but is expected to
rapidly deepen Sat night into Sun as it moves over the Gulf
Stream and experiences intense synoptic forcing (H5 height falls
on the order of around 300m in 24 hrs) via the approaching
shortwave from the Ohio Valley. Minor timing differences in its
intensification and east-west wobbles as occlusion occurs is
resulting in large differences in the rainfall footprint and
magnitude (EPS/AIGFS/AIFS on the lower side with GEFS/GEPS
showing higher amounts) especially over northeast NC and
southeast VA. Latest forecast suggests most locations should see
0.25 to around 0.5" from 06z Sun until precip exits early Mon
morning. Amounts could be as low as less than 0.1" in the
western Piedmont and as much as 1.25" in the northern Coastal
Plain.

Wet snow may mix in with the rain as early as Sun afternoon, but
more probable after sunset into the overnight hours when a brief
transition to all snow may be possible. Using local TRENDS database
and nomogram analysis for p-type forecasting, the primary
categories will be either "Snow" or "Indeterminate" with a
shallow warm layer near the surface delineating between rain or
snow. These categories are also very susceptible to rate-driven
p-type changes, which will certainly be possible given the
strong DPVA potentially overlapping H850 convergence on the
backside of the low. The best overlap in forcing appears to be
after 18z through roughly 00z, but this is when surface wet-bulb
temperatures will be warmest, and above freezing, and not
falling below 32F until after 00z, resulting in mostly the
potential for conversational snow and not impactful as far as
accumulation and travel conditions are concerned. The time
period of concern may be after 00z as wet-bulb temps drop below
32F and lingering saturation and weak low-level forcing
underneath the core of the mid/upper trough may allow snow to
stick to elevated surfaces and perhaps even untreated roadways;
however, confidence in this solution is low given minor changes
to the low track/strength will have a large effect on where
these conditions will overlap, if at all.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Below normal temperatures expected early to
middle of next week, with low confidence in a cold front
bringing rain late week.

As the surface low continues to move northeast out of the area,
below normal temperatures will return to central NC as surface
high pressure moves to our south. Temperatures should fall below
normal on Sunday and last through mid-week. Monday will be the
coldest day of the period, with highs in the 40s and lows in the
mid 20s to around 30. This will be up to 15 degrees below
normal. Temperatures should slowly moderate each day through
mid-week as high pressure passes to our south. Temperatures on
Wednesday look to be back to near normal. The next chance for
rain will be Thursday into Friday as a cold front looks to move
through the region, but high model spread leads to low
confidence in the timing and amount of rain that is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 635 AM Friday...

12Z Update: Northern terminals remain LIFR and socked in this
morning. The stalled boundary is slowly moving north, so should see
some lifting of ceilings to IFR/MVFR this morning. Any lingering
dense fog should lift by ~14 to 15Z.  Otherwise, the previous
discussion below remains valid at this TAF update.

Previous discussion:

The northern tier of terminals have all socked down to LIFR
conditions (combo of low ceilings and visibility) this morning as
they remain near or just north of a stalled frontal boundary. Expect
these conditions to persist through at least day break, before a
gradual lifting to MVFR and eventually VFR occurs through this
afternoon.

A dryline front is expected to sweep across central NC
later today. Out ahead of the front, swly gusts of 25 to 30 kts will
be possible at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI starting ~14Z through 18Z. Then post-
frontal wly winds (20 to 30kts) will pick up at KINT/KGSO early this
afternoon and persist through sunset. Winds will shift to wly at
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI as well, but may only gust in the 15 to 25 kt range
during and after this shift. A cold front will then sweep across
central NC tonight, but winds should weaken overnight despite its
passage.

A broken line of showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms may
accompany the dryline passage later this morning/afternoon but
should push east of central NC by mid afternoon. Any lingering sub-
VFR conditions should sweep out through the early afternoon, and VFR
conditions are otherwise expected to persist through the end of the
24 hr TAF period.

Outlook: A cold front will move across cntl NC Fri night and stall
over SC by early Sat. That front will be a focus for the development
of a couple of areas of low pressure and associated periods of rain
and additional flight restrictions over the Carolinas this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

February 20:
KGSO: 74/1922
KRDU: 75/1939
KFAY: 82/2014


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

February 20:
KGSO: 56/1939
KRDU: 62/1939
KFAY: 60/1939

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-076-078.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/AS/LH
AVIATION...Luchetti/PWB/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH