Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

276
FXUS62 KRAH 170706
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
306 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday for southern and
  eastern portions of central NC.

* The chance for a few strong to severe storms has increased for
  much of the Piedmont of NC for Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect today for parts of the Triangle
and south-central NC, and we`ve issued another Heat Advisory for the
Triangle to the S and E for Mon. The hot weather will continue into
mid week, will gradually lowering heat indices mid through late
week.

2) The threat for a few strong to severe storms continues through
Mon. We have a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms
across the northern half of central NC for the rest of today, and a
Slight (level 2 of 5) risk in the Piedmont on Mon. Damaging winds
are the primary threat.

3) Heat will linger through Thu, followed by more- seasonable
temperatures and above average probabilities of rain/convection late
week through at least the first half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Heat Advisory remains in effect today for parts
of the Triangle and south-central NC, and we`ve issued another Heat
Advisory for the Triangle to the S and E for Mon. The hot weather
will continue into mid week, will gradually lowering heat indices
mid through late week.

Heating has been curbed somewhat today by this morning`s areas of
low clouds as well as the early-onset of convection across parts of
the Sandhills and far N CWA. But several locations have still
managed to reach a 105F heat index today, as pockets of strong
heating combine with high dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s. We should
see a bit less cloudiness Mon morning, and with low level
thicknesses expected to reach 20 m above normal, highs should reach
the mid 90s to near 100F. The small bit of good news is that the
dewpoints tomorrow are expected to be slightly lower than today,
dipping into the 70-76 range with mixing in the afternoon, with
these lower readings in the west, and this should help keep heat
indices from reaching criteria for an Extreme Heat Warning, although
certainly this will be assessed further tonight and monitored
closely on Mon. But a Heat Advisory is warranted for all but NW and
VA border portions of the CWA, with heat index values expected to
reach 105-109F. NWS Heat Risk, which is based on how unusual and/or
long-lived this heat is, as well as on past CDC heat-illness data,
reaches a level 3 (out of 4) nearly everywhere Mon, suggesting that
this heat could be particularly dangerous.

Temps may be a bit less hot on Tue, but still elevated over the S
and E CWA, where the long duration of this hot stretch will add to
the already-high heat stress.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The threat for a few strong to severe storms
continues through Mon. We have a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of
severe thunderstorms across the northern half of central NC for the
rest of today, and a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk in the Piedmont on
Mon. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

A few strong to severe storms remain possible today and Mon. Deep
layer bulk shear remains poor today, under 20 kts, which will limit
the intensity and duration of any updraft. But SBCAPE has reached
2500-4000 J/kg thus far (according to RAP-based mesoanalysis) with a
DCAPE over 800 J/kg much of the area, highest SW, and with PWs still
around 2" or up to 130%-140% of normal, isolated water-loaded
downdrafts remain possible, leading to localized strong to severe
gusts into early this evening. On Mon, the SBCAPE may be a bit
lower, but our deep layer shear is expected to be around 25 kts,
with added forcing for ascent provided by an approaching MCV
expected later in the day from the NW. In particular, convection
over the NC mountains may maintain strength with better organization
as they track ESE into the NC Piedmont, again with damaging winds as
the primary threat, from mid afternoon through mid evening.

Storm coverage is expected to decrease and push to our SE sections
on Tue, as a slug of drier air with lower PW spreads in from the WNW.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Heat will linger through Thu, followed by more-
seasonable temperatures and above average probabilities of
rain/convection late week through at least the first half of the
weekend.

A sub-tropical ridge now over TX will retrograde into the Southwest
and Four Corners while amplifying sharply through the Rockies
through the week, while a downstream trough will amplify across the
ern US. Although the models strongly indicate a cyclone will develop
within that trough over the Great Lakes and vicinity by the end of
the weekend, there remains large model spread in its depth and how
quickly it will lift through ern Canada through early next week.
Related falling heights, and moist and unseasonably strong swly flow
east of the trough axis, will favor both less hot temperatures and
also above average probabilities of convection, some probably
severe, late Thu-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

24-hour TAF period: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across
central NC through this morning. Guidance continues to suggest
patchy fog can`t be totally ruled out around 09z-12z, so retained
the TEMPO groups for MVFR visibilities. This could be most likely at
INT and GSO where some rain fell over the last couple hours.
However, most locations should stay VFR. The cluster of showers and
storms that did produce the rain at the Triad sites earlier this
evening is moving east but diminishing considerably, and dry
conditions should also largely prevail overnight, with calm to very
light SW winds.

A complex of showers and storms will move into the NW Piedmont in
the late afternoon or early evening hours on Monday, potentially
spreading east through the rest of the evening and early overnight
hours. However, high-res guidance generally shows the convection
weakening with time especially once daytime heating is lost. The
best chance for gusty winds and sub-VFR restrictions is at INT/GSO,
followed by RDU and then RWI. It appears likely the showers and
storms will stay north of FAY, so don`t have any mention in the TAF
there, but it still can`t be entirely ruled out. Outside of any
storms, WNW winds may still gust up to 15-20 kts at times in the
afternoon.

Looking beyond 06z Tue: The better chances of storms should shift to
mainly south and southeast of the terminals for Tue-Thu. Higher rain
chances are expected areawide Fri ahead of an approaching upper
level low pressure trough. Outside of storms, generally VFR
conditions are expected, although a few hours of patchy early-
morning sub-VFR fog/stratus may occur each day, with the highest
chances in areas that see rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

August 17: KGSO: 99/1988 KRDU: 99/1997 KFAY: 104/1954

August 18: KFAY: 98/1988

August 20: KFAY: 102/2007


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 17: KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 76/2024 KFAY: 78/2007

August 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021

August 19: KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940

August 20: KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005

August 21: KRDU: 76/2009 KFAY: 77/2005

August 22: KFAY: 75/2018


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ024>028-040>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/MWS
AVIATION...Danco/Hartfield