Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS62 KRAH 242053
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
353 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

* Liquid equivalent precipitation amounts for this weekend`s storm
  have decreased slightly, but overall impact from sleet and
  freezing rain is still significant and little changed.

* No notable changes have otherwise been made to the ongoing
  forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

1) Winter Weather headlines, and expected Moderate to Major Winter
Storm Severity Impacts, remain unchanged for the winter storm that
will affect central NC mainly tonight through Sunday night.

2) An extended period of well below normal temperatures is expected
through the seven day forecast.

3) A period of light snow can`t be ruled out on Wednesday night and
early Thursday, with the best chance over northern and northeastern
parts of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Winter Weather headlines, and expected Moderate to
Major Winter Storm Severity Impacts, remain unchanged for the winter
storm that will affect central NC mainly tonight through Sunday
night.

Sleet and freezing rain should be the dominant precipitation types
and account for the greatest and most significant accumulation.
However, some snow is possible across the northwest and northern
Piedmont this evening.

Discussion:

There has been little change to the overall synoptic pattern since
the previous discussion. Most notable change in upper air analysis
from GSO from 12Z to 18Z today is a decrease of 13 degC in the
dewpoint depressions at 700 mb, indicating the moistening of the mid
levels. However, there is still very dry air in place in the lower
levels. As of 19Z, a 1040 mb surface high over the Great Lakes was
ridging east and sewd into and across the mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. Across central NC, temperatures range from low 20s north
to low 30s south, with some dewpoints of 0 to -10 degF spreading swd
into the area.

Overview: Wswly flow aloft will become increasingly swly tonight
through Sun night as the low over the Baja opens into a s/w trough
and ejects ewd-enewd (moving across the Southeast and Carolinas
Sun/Sun night) as it gets picked up by the amplifying longwave
trough. At 850 mb, as the low strengthens and shifts east across the
ARKLATEX and into the mid-MS Valley tonight, it will push the ridge
axis out of the area, with WAA increasing from the southwest through
Sun, such 850 mb temperatures are forecast to markedly increase by
between 10-15 degC by Sun evening. The H85 low will subsequently
lift newd from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley on Sun, while the
jet strengthens east of the Appalachians before moving ewd across
the are Sun night.

At the surface, the Arctic high will drifting ewd across the
Northeast tonight, then lift nwd into and across Quebec and weaken
Sun/Sun night. This high will be favorably strong and located and
dammed east of the Appalachians for a significant (classical,
diabatically-enhanced) cold air damming episode through much of Sun,
before weakening and retreating poleward late Sun and especially Sun
night. Despite its retreat and demise later this weekend, the
magnitude of its related Arctic cold and dry, with associated sub-
zero F surface dewpoints all the way into srn VA already this
morning, may allow its influence to linger longer through the
duration of the event than its increasingly unfavorable position and
strength with time would suggest. Meanwhile, a pair of lows will
develop along the srn and ern periphery of the wedge, one over the
central Gulf Coast and the other off the Southeast US coast
tonight/Sun. The leading low off the Southeast US coast will lift
nwd along the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts Sun. A third low may
develop north of or break off from the Gulf Coast low and lift nwd
along and west of the Appalachians on Sunday, while the primary low
tracks ewd across the Deep South and Southeast. It should then lift
newd along the Carolina coast and meet up with the leading low off
the Northeast US coast Sun night, while the nwrn low lifts into and
ewd across the nrn mid-Atlantic. This surface pattern will favor
corridors of predominant precipitation-types that will include and
be highlighted by significant accumulation/accrual of sleet/freezing
rain over cntl NC. The surface wet bulb freezing line roughly along
the NC coast today will probably retreat nwwd across the NC Coastal
Plain and ern Sandhills Sun afternoon-evening, then perhaps briefly
into the Piedmont by midnight Mon morning.

Sensible Weather: This afternoon and evening, hydrometeors will have
to overcome the very dry air to make it to the ground, and will
initially serve to moisten the lower levels, falling as virga with
perhaps some intermittent flurries across the northeast/north this
aft/early eve. As the precipitation begins reaching the ground
across the nw/nrn Piedmont this evening, partial thickness values
and top-down both suggest snow would be the predominant
precipitation type, for the first few hours or so. Most if any
accumulating snow - perhaps an inch or so over the nrn Piedmont,
depending upon how quickly it can reach the ground - will occur
there during that limited time window. Expect a changeover to sleet
as the aforementioned significant warming aloft (centered around 850
mb) noses rapidly newd and strong QG ascent (related to the mid-
level warming via WAA) increases throughout cntl NC.

Overnight, precipitation types should transition to predominantly
freezing rain and/or sleet and remain largely that into the day Sun.
As the warm nose temperatures increase well above values to
completely melt any snow/ice nuclei falling through it. Despite that
complete melting, underlying cold nose temperatures are forecast to
be atypically cold (~minus 10C) and sufficiently so to yield
additional ice nucleation in the lowest couple of thousand ft AGL;
and that may allow for periods of continued snow and sleet
production, with crystal habits of the former that would favor
columns/prisms/needles that would not accumulate very efficiently,
particularly if accompanied by freezing rain as expected. The
aforementioned nwwd retreat of the surface wet bulb freezing line
into at least the Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain will favor a
brief changeover to all rain there Sun aft/evening, and possibly
into parts of the Piedmont overnight.

Accumulations: Forecast storm total liquid equivalent amounts have
decreased a bit, now ranging from around 0.75-1.0" in the Sandhills
and srn Coastal Plain, to around 1.0-1.25" across the Triangle, to
1.25-1.75" in the far nrn/nw Piedmont (Triad). We are still
relatively confident there being corridors of precipitation types
that will be mostly ice and a combination of sleet/freezing rain in
cntl NC, but exact amounts remain somewhat in question given
uncertainty with how long sleet over the Piedmont will be the
predominant p-type before yielding to freezing rain; and
accumulation of one will come at the expense of the other.
Deterministic storm total frozen (mostly sleet) and freezing rain
totals also remain similar to previous forecasts, but there will
probably be a corridor where more sleet accumulates at the expense
of freezing rain and may consequently reduce impacts, specifically
those related to power outages. There is also still some uncertainty
whether ice accrual across the southeast (srn Sandhills and srn-cntl
Coastal Plain) will meet or exceed 0.25", where both a changeover to
plain rain by Sun evening and also lesser liquid equivalent amounts
are expected, thus have opted to keep them in the advisory.


Key Message 2... An extended period of well below normal
temperatures is expected through the seven day forecast.

Temperatures will be well below normal from Monday onward. Some
locations near the VA/NC border may not rise above freezing all
week. Lows Monday night are expected to drop to the single digits to
the north of US-64, with mainly lower-to-mid-teens elsewhere. Wind
chills will get as low as below zero in the far north and single
digits elsewhere. It appears likely that Cold Weather headlines will
be needed Monday night, but forecast values aren`t low enough at
this point to support an Extreme Cold Watch. The climate section
below includes records that may be in jeopardy. While normal highs
in late January are in the low to mid 50s, expect widespread highs
in the 30s on Tuesday. The Arctic air mass will modify slightly on
Wednesday, but temperatures will still be well below normal with
highs ranging from lower-30s in the far north to lower-40s in the
far south. Lows Wednesday night will be mid-teens to lower-20s.

A shortwave trough moving through the southern Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday night will push another Arctic front through central NC,
ushering in another bitterly cold air mass for late next week.
Forecast highs on Thursday and Friday are only in the upper-20s to
mid-30s. Breezy NW winds will make it feel even colder. Temperatures
and wind chills on Thursday night will be especially cold, similar
to Monday night. More Cold Weather headlines will likely be needed.
Temperatures will start to modify a bit on Saturday but will still
be well below normal.


KEY MESSAGE 3... A period of light snow can`t be ruled out on
Wednesday night and early Thursday, with the best chance over
northern and northeastern parts of the area.

Guidance is consistent in showing the aforementioned shortwave (a
"clipper" system diving SE out of Canada) swinging east across VA/NC
on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, inducing a surface
low east of the coast, but confidence is much lower on whether it
will still have enough moisture to squeeze out some precipitation
across central NC. Temperatures both aloft and at the surface would
certainly be cold enough to support all snow, and snow-to-liquid
ratios would likely be quite high, but the question is whether it
will be able to overcome the dry air mass in place or if
precipitation will dissipate in the downslope flow as it crosses the
Appalachians. The 12z GFS is dry, while the ECMWF has a small amount
across the far NE and the CMC is wetter. A lot will depend on how
much the trough is able to dig south into our area. Based on
ensemble guidance and the track of the wave, the best chance looks
to be across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. The
GFS and ECMWF ensembles backed off on their probabilities of
measurable precipitation, so continue only slight chance POPs for
now, but did expand them from the small area NBM had them.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 105 PM Saturday...

TAF period: This afternoon, conditions should be VFR with just a
slight chance of snow at INT/GSO. Widespread precipitation and
associated restrictions are not expected to arrive until after 00Z.
Still think that INT/GSO are the only locations where any snow is
possible, but this would be short-lived before a warm nose changes
the precipitation type over to ice pellets and freezing rain. The
most difficult part of the forecast is likely to be where ice
pellets occur and where freezing rain occurs. Have generally
continued with the previous forecast thinking, that the p-type will
be predominantly ice pellets at INT/GSO with freezing rain more
likely at RDU/FAY/RWI. Ceilings will steadily diminish overnight,
reaching LIFR by Sunday morning.

Outlook: There may be a brief lull in precipitation Sunday
afternoon, but widespread precipitation will return Sunday night.
Precipitation type is expected to be freezing rain at INT/GSO, rain
at FAY/RWI, and RDU will be near the transition zone. Precipitation
should depart all sites by Monday morning, and the rest of the
outlook period is dry. IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to continue
with precipitation Sunday night before returning to VFR Monday
morning. Finally, widespread low-level wind shear is expected to
develop late Sunday afternoon and continue through Sunday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 25:
KGSO: 23/1940
KRDU: 28/2013
KFAY: 30/2013


Record Low Temperatures:

January 26:
KRDU: 10/1940

January 27:
KRDU: 8/1940
KFAY: 11/1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for NCZ007-021>024-038-
039.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for
NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-073>077-083>086.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
for NCZ078-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10/Green/Danco
AVIATION...Green