Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

330
FXUS62 KRAH 171801
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Nothing significant.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

1) Despite tonight being the coldest night of the season so far,
frost does not appear to be a threat around the Triad.

2) High pressure and a dry airmass will provide dry weather Sunday
through next weekend. Frost not expected Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Despite tonight being the coldest night of the
season so far, frost does not appear to be a threat around the Triad.

A wave of low pressure is developing along the cold front that has
moved offshore the Carolina coast. Rain and associated cloud cover
with the front will continue to push east, with all of central North
Carolina expected to be dry by sunset. Despite clearing skies, the
pressure gradient between high pressure moving over the mid-Atlantic
states and the developing coastal low should keep the wind around 10
mph overnight. The mixing of the air will prevent lows from dropping
much lower than the upper 30s, which should prevent any frost
formation.


KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure and a dry airmass will provide dry
weather Sunday through next weekend. Frost not expected Sunday
night.

With the upper low lingering off our coast, upper ridge to our west,
and sfc high pressure to our north which is extending south across
our area ... we expect dry weather across central NC from Sunday
through next weekend. Given persistent N/NE low level flow, temps
will remain several deg below normal Sunday and Monday, then holding
near normal for the rest of the forecast period. Frost is not
expected Sunday night due to lingering pressure gradient and
resulting breeze.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

TAF period: While the cloud cover at INT/GSO has risen to VFR
heights, rain and low MVFR ceilings continue at RDU/RWI/FAY. Rain
should become more scattered through the afternoon, along with
slowly rising ceilings. Models are hinting that northerly gusts
could increase slightly later this afternoon, and 17Z gusts up to
25+ kts at RDU/RWI/FAY indicate this potential, especially as clouds
begin to scatter out. The widespread cloud cover will continue to
push east, leaving RWI last around 00Z. Although surface gusts are
not forecast to continue overnight, a low-level jet should be
present, and have introduced some moderate LLWS into the forecast at
all sites. LLWS will continue through the night until Sunday
morning, when mixing should allow for northeasterly wind gusts to
resume.

Outlook: A coastal low is expected to develop along the cold front
that has pushed offshore, and depending on how much the low moves,
this could result in several days of gusts out of the north-
northeast, with higher gusts at RWI and lower gusts at INT/GSO. This
could also result in some MVFR ceilings at RWI, but confidence in
the track of the coastal system remains low.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/np
AVIATION...Green