Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

346
FXUS62 KRAH 222300
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
600 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

* Only a chance of light rain today into Friday mainly in the south.

* Confidence in a significant weekend winter storm continues to
  increase, with a greater focus on icing and sleet potential.

* Continued high confidence in bitterly cold temperatures from early
  Saturday through the middle of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

1) Temperatures will be mild through tonight, then slightly cooler
tomorrow, ahead of the Arctic front on Friday night. There is a
chance of light rain from today into Friday, mainly across the
south. This is the time to prepare for the winter storm expected
this weekend.

2) A Winter Storm Watch including all of central NC, with increasing
confidence in significant wintry precipitation from Saturday
afternoon through early Monday morning.

3) Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values expected
Monday night/Tuesday morning.

4) Well below normal temperatures expected Monday night through
Thursday.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures will be mild through tonight, then
slightly cooler tomorrow, ahead of the Arctic front on Friday night.
There is a chance of light rain from today into Friday, mainly
across the south. This is the time to prepare for the winter storm
expected this weekend.

A baroclinic zone will settle near the NC/SC border through Friday,
with periods of light rain possible, mainly across southern parts of
central NC. Rainfall amounts are expected to be less than a tenth of
an inch. After one day of above normal temperatures with highs today
in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows tonight in the lower-30s to lower-
40s, it will turn a bit cooler on Friday (highs mid-40s to 50).
Skies are turning overcast across all of central NC as mid and high
clouds move in from the SW, and this will continue through Friday.
An Arctic front will then move through the area on Friday night as
lows drop into the mid-teens to mid-20s and wind chills drop into
the single digits and teens. Rain chances will come to an end in the
SE on Friday night as we get a brief dry period in advance of the
upcoming winter storm. Today and tomorrow are the time to prepare!


KEY MESSAGE 2... A Winter Storm Watch including all of central NC,
with increasing confidence in significant wintry precipitation from
Saturday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Overview: Latest models and ensemble members continue to support
passage of an Arctic cold front N to S Fri night, introducing a
frigid air mass as polar high pressure spans the Great Lakes region.
Just aloft, the 850 mb front will dip SSE into the area Fri night
and briefly stall across the Carolinas before slowly nudging back
NNW, a key mechanism affecting precip types. As the surface front
settles well to our S across GA/SC Sat, inverted troughing will
develop from low pressure over the central Gulf coast NNE through E
TN, the precursor to what will likely be a Miller B cyclogenesis
pattern as the secondary low develop off the Carolina coast. Despite
increasing PW spreading in from the SW Sat, precip during the first
half of the day should be light and spotty, as the subcloud layer
remains rather dry (including initially high surface dewpoint
depressions) and the forcing for ascent modest. By late Sat and esp
Sat evening, PW ramps up to 225% to nearly 300% of normal, while
overrunning over NC strengthens with the arrival of the nose of a 35-
50 kt 850 mb SW jet. Upper level forcing for ascent will also
strengthen, with increasing mid level height falls as a phased deep
trough shifts into the central CONUS Sat night/Sun, along with a
couple rounds of jet-induced upper divergence peaking Sat night and
late Sun. Precip will finally wind down late Sun night into early
Mon morning as the low level jet shifts to coastal NC and the
coastal low takes over off the Northeast coast.

Precip timing: A prolonged period of mixed wintry precipitation is
expected across central NC this weekend, with regional differences.
In the northern Piedmont and Triad, precipitation is expected to
begin Saturday afternoon as snow and sleet, transitioning to a mix
of sleet and freezing rain by Saturday evening, with sleet
occasionally heavy. Ice accumulations of one-quarter inch to just
over one-half inch are possible through Sunday, with sleet and snow
totals of 2 to 3 inches along and north of the I-85 corridor.
Freezing rain will be the dominant precipitation type Saturday night
through Sunday, resulting in moderate to potentially major impacts
across the region. Precipitation should exit early Monday morning,
though a brief burst of snow is possible on the back edge as dry air
erodes the warm nose and a few flakes reach the surface. Across the
Triangle, precipitation types will be especially challenging as two
waves move through the region. Precipitation will begin Saturday
afternoon as sleet, mixing with snow, then quickly transition to
freezing rain and sleet Saturday night, with periods of heavy sleet
producing minor snow/sleet accumulations. Freezing rain is expected
to be the predominant precipitation type from Saturday night through
Sunday night. A second surge of warm, moist air from the southeast
on Sunday may bring periods of moderate to heavy freezing rain, with
intermittent transitions to just rain during the afternoon and
evening. As colder air pushes in from the west Sunday night into
early Monday, precipitation should transition back to freezing rain
and sleet. On the back edge of the system early Monday morning, a
brief burst of snow mixed with freezing rain is possible before
precipitation ends. Ice accretion totals remain a little uncertain
given the mixed precipitation, but a quarter to three-quarters of an
inch appears possible. Snow and sleet totals may range from around a
half inch near I-95 to up to 1.5 inches near the I-85 corridor.
Hazardous travel conditions are expected late Saturday night through
Sunday evening, lingering into Monday morning.
Across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, precipitation is expected to
begin Saturday night as freezing rain, with occasional sleet, and
remain primarily freezing rain through Sunday afternoon. As warmer
air advances northward with the second wave, precipitation may
transition to mainly rain Sunday afternoon and evening. However, as
colder air pushes in from the west late Sunday night into Monday
morning, rain may change back to freezing rain before exiting the
region. A few snowflakes may mix in across the northern Coastal
Plain Monday morning, though no additional snow accumulation is
expected. Ice accretion will be sensitive to precipitation type
transitions, but around a quarter inch of ice is possible across
much of the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Sleet and snow
accumulations should remain minimal, generally a dusting to a half
inch especially on grassy and elevated surfaces. Hazardous impacts
will depend on the extent of ice accretion prior to the arrival of
warmer air and the intensity of freezing rain. Total liquid QPF is
expected to range from 1.0 to 1.75 inches across the region.
Surface temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 20s north to
low 30s south. Saturday night temperatures will be upper teens to
low 20s. Sunday will be a tad warmer with upper 20s north to low 40s
creeping into the far southeast. By Monday morning, temperatures
will be in the upper 20s NW to low 30s (below freezing) in the SE.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values
expected Monday night/Tuesday morning.

As the parent surface high tracks ewd across the lower MS Valley, a
smaller, secondary area of high pressure in the northward extending
ridge may break off and race newd across the TN Valley and into the
central Appalachians Mon night. Low-level thicknesses will drop into
the 1250-1260 meter range, nwly winds of 5-10 kts. There is still
some uncertainty wrt wintry precip accumulations, which could impact
temperatures Mon night, however for now, expect temperatures to fall
into the single digits across much of the area by daybreak. However,
lows of 10-15 degrees are more likely across the southeast portions
of central NC. Additionally, with the continued breeze expected
overnight, wind chill values as low as -5 degrees will be possible,
especially across the north. Overnight lows may approach or exceed
daily record values. A Cold Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold Watch
or Warning may be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Well below normal temperatures expected through
Thursday.

Aloft, a s/w trough will move across the region Mon night, with the
broad longwave trough generally remaining over the area thereafter.
At the surface, aside from a lee trough in place on Tue, high
pressure will generally dominate through the period. Not only will
any lingering wintry accumulation have a tough time melting on Tue
(with highs ranging from around 30 degrees north to mid 30s south)
it could also help keep the temperatures muted despite expected
clear skies and light swly breeze.

Unchanged from the previous discussion: Overnight lows may approach
daily records, and daily highs may come close to record low daily
maxima as well, especially if we have a persistent thick glaze of
snow/sleet or ice. This extended cold weather will mean that
whatever wintry precip accumulates will stick around through at
least the middle of next week, with very slow melting or
sublimation.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 600 PM Thursday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions for much of the start of
the TAF period at all terminals. Radar is showing pockets of light
rain, but much of these radar echoes are having a hard time reaching
the ground, due to a dry sub-cloud layer below 6 to 10 kft. Thus, we
did not include any mention of -RA in the TAFs to start the period,
though cannot rule out a stray shower at FAY. Increasing WAA atop a
surface cold frontal zone will favor the development of some MVFR
stratus in and near FAY Fri afternoon to early evening, where some
light rain may develop at the same time. Confidence was highest for
light rain at FAY, though a brief period could occur at RDU and RWI
between 17 and 23z Fri. Winds will be light through the period, out
of the north.

Outlook: Confidence continues to increase in a potential winter
storm this weekend, which will likely bring a wintry mix of sleet
and ice Sat night through Sun. Periods of LLWS may also be possible
during this time with a strong low-level jet atop a surface stable
layer. VFR conditions should return early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 25:
KGSO: 23/1940
KRDU: 28/2013
KFAY: 30/2013


Record Low Temperatures:

January 26:
KRDU: 10/1940

January 27:
KRDU: 8/1940
KFAY: 11/1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JD/CA/GH/KC
AVIATION...Kren