Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

147
FXUS62 KRAH 210600
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Rain chances and amounts have lowered a bit for Monday,
  otherwise no significant changes from earlier forecasts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

1) Another brief hot spell peaks Mon, when highs will be in the mid-
upper 90s with heat index values near 100F, mainly along and east of
Highway 1.

2) Shower and storm chances increase on Monday with the next cold
front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Another brief hot spell peaks Mon, when highs will
be in the mid-upper 90s with heat index values near 100F, mainly
along and east of Highway 1.

A warm and increasingly humid SW flow returns Mon ahead of the
slowly approaching cold front. While this period of hot weather does
not appear to be especially profound or long-lasting, much of the
eastern half of central NC, including from the Triangle region to
the south and east, are likely to see afternoon heat indices peaking
around 100F. This is also where the NWS experimental Heat Risk
reaches the Major category (level 3 of 4), indicating atypically
high heat that could lead to an increased risk of heat illnesses,
especially for vulnerable populations. People needing to work or
exercise outdoors Mon should take precautions and plan for frequent
shade (or AC) and hydration breaks. Temps on Tue will remain above
normal with elevated humidity, but the increase in clouds should
keep temps and heat indices just under critical values.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Shower and storm chances increase on Monday with
the next cold front.

A vigorous shortwave will approach from the TN Valley on Monday,
moving east across central NC on Tuesday morning. Meanwhile the
associated surface low will move across the OH Valley and northern
Mid-Atlantic, as the trailing cold front crosses our region early
Tuesday morning. As warm moist SW flow develops ahead of the front,
with winds gusting up to 20-30 mph, dew points will increase into
the upper-60s to lower-70s on Monday, and there should be adequate
sunshine at least through early afternoon for good boundary layer
heating and steep low-level lapse rates. While mid-level lapse rates
will be limited, most deterministic and ensemble guidance still
depicts 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the region. Mid-level flow
looks strongest to our north, but bulk shear could still reach 25-35
kts. AI NWP models generally have us in a 30% to 60% chance of
severe weather, with a couple even exceeding 60% in the NW. So SPC
has central NC in a Day 3 marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe
weather. The main threat would be damaging winds.

As for rainfall amounts, POPs have come down slightly but still
range from likely across the far north to low chance in the far
south on Monday afternoon and evening. Will have to see if the
slight drying trend in the guidance continues, but for now WPC QPF
ranges from around a half inch in the far NW Piedmont to only a few
hundredths in the far south. However, locally higher amounts will be
possible in any storms. More isolated to scattered diurnal
convection is expected each day for the rest of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

A residual continental (dry) airmass over cntl NC will favor VFR
conditions through at least 06Z Mon. Mainly light swly surface winds
may become weakly gusty into the teens kts at times with heating
this afternoon.

Outlook: Return flow moisture will yield a chance of probably MVFR
stratus at FAY Mon morning and scattered convection, with maximum
coverage over the Piedmont, Mon afternoon-evening. A chance of
convection will linger into Tue with the passage of a cold front,
especially from FAY to RWI, though with probably only isolated
coverage owing to increasingly-westerly (downslope) low-level flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22: KRDU: 100/2022  KFAY: 101/2022

June 23: KRDU: 100/2024  KFAY: 102/1981


Record Low Temperatures:

June 20: KRDU: 54/1966


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 22: KGSO: 75/1981  KRDU: 78/1933

June 23: KGSO: 74/2024  KRDU: 78/2024  KFAY: 77/2024

June 25: KFAY: 75/1952

June 26: KGSO: 74/2010  KRDU: 77/2024  KFAY: 76/1997

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Danco
AVIATION...MWS