Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

380
FXUS62 KRAH 231712
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
110 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Dense Fog Advisory expired at 9am.
* A very limited chance of a shower or storm across southeastern
Sampson and Wayne counties this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

1) Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold
frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
along the Coastal Plain.

2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC
Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a
cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
along the Coastal Plain.

A cold front will be pushing through most of our central NC counties
this morning. The front will be slowest to push through the eastern
Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Behind the front, northwest downslope
flow will aid in dewpoints mixing out and RH levels becoming much
more comfortable for late August in the upper 30s to middle 40s
percent. It is difficult to tell how low dewpoints may mix out this
afternoon, but statistical guidance and HREF suggest perhaps middle
50s in the NW, upper 50s in Raleigh and low 60s in the SE. The one
exception may be the southern Coastal Plain, where moisture may hang
out with the front slower to edge through. But all in all, a great
afternoon to be outside. Lows tonight may bottom out in the low to
middle 60s, with a few of our cooler spots dipping into the upper
50s. That lower humidity should continue into Monday, despite highs
the next few days in the mid/upper 80s, to near 90 in the south.

With the moisture lingering in our far SE today, cannot rule out a
stray isolated shower or storm, especially Sampson County, though
overall ensembles keep most storms to our east along the coast. Some
of the guidance, particularly the GFS, indicate a weak surface wave
forming along the front as it stalls out along central SC. This wave
is progged in some guidance to track north Monday and perhaps buckle
the front back north. This could initiate isolated or scattered
storms Monday morning or afternoon, most favored in the Sandhills to
the central Coastal Plain. Confidence in this scenario is low but if
trends continue, rain chances and clouds may increase in our south
and east Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to
central NC Thursday through the weekend.

A closed mid/upper level low over southern Quebec Tues morning will
continue to slowly pivot east-northeast as another series of
shortwaves parade across Great Lakes and southern Ontario through
Fri. Moisture returns in the low lvls as early as Wed, with deeper
moisture return on Thurs, although rich tropical moisture appears
limited in the mid/upper levels as west-northwest flow persists over
the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Nevertheless, this should
support diurnally driven convection as surface dew points in the 70s
return and PWAT values rise back to around or slightly-above normal
into the weekend. There may be some mixing out of dew points each
afternoon, especially over the Piedmont back into the 60s which may
limit the moderate instability to the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

Thurs appears to have the best chance for measurable precipitation
with neutral H5 height tendencies and potential influence from any
MCV`s from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Reasonable high-
end totals for any given area will be around 1" to as much as +2"
based on the 12z LREF. However, these amounts will not occur
everywhere, as is the nature of summertime convection, with most
locations likely to receive somewhere between trace amounts to 0.5"
between 8 AM Thurs to 8 AM Fri. For now, no widespread concern for
excessive rainfall is expected through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

High confidence of fair weather and VFR conditions through the
afternoon and evening hours across central NC, after midnight
there`s a limited chance of some scattered VSBY restrictions in the
far southeast.

Fog and stratus earlier this morning has lifted and mixed out
yielding mainly clear skies with some areas of cumulus clouds early
this afternoon. The cumulus are most widespread across the Coastal
Plain and Sandhills in a region of lingering moisture with bases of
3-4kft with other cumulus clouds moving off the Blue Ridge into the
Triad region. There is a very limited chance that a shower or
thunderstorm could develop and move across Cumberland, Sampson and
Wayne counties between 18 and 23Z, mainly southeast of the KFAY
terminal but the probabilities are 15% or less and will exclude from
the TAF.

Quiet and dry weather is expected this evening with mainly clear
skies and no restrictions. While most of central NC will have no
restrictions overnight, there is a limited, perhaps 20-30% chance of
some shallow flog to develop across the Sandhills and the southern
Coastal Plain overnight. Confidence is limited and the only terminal
potentially impacted would be the KFAY terminal with the best
chances of restrictions from 08 to 12Z. An upper air disturbance will
approach the area on Monday and could trigger a rogue shower or
storm across the Coastal Plain on Tuesday afternoon.

A southeast advancing but slowing cold front has move into the
Coastal Plain and the winds across central NC have largely become
northwest at 5 to 10kts. A few gusts of 15-18 kts are possible this
afternoon, mainly in the northern Piedmont and especially in the
Triad. Winds will decrease early this evening and be light for much
of the night if not becoming calm toward daybreak.

Outlook: A stalled front across the Coastal Plain could produce some
isolated storms near KFAY/KRWI Monday afternoon. As the air mass
becomes gradually more moist over the outlook period, the risk of
scattered afternoon and evening storms will gradually increase, with
the greatest chances on Wednesday and especially Thursday. There
will also be an increase risk of late night and early morning fog
and stratus, especially across eastern and southern locations.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Swiggett
AVIATION...Blaes