Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

754
FXUS62 KRAH 241909
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
309 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Nothing appreciable

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Monday...

1) Scattered convection will continue to develop and deepen this
afternoon over the srn half of Sampson Co. (and possibly into the
adjacent Sandhills and cntl Coastal Plain), with an isolated severe
storm possible.

2) Diurnally driven storms expected to return from mid week into the
weekend, with the greatest chances on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered convection will continue to develop and
deepen this afternoon over the srn half of Sampson Co. (and possibly
into the adjacent Sandhills and cntl Coastal Plain), with an
isolated severe storm possible.

A perturbation evident in GOES-E water vapor satellite data over the
Virginias will pivot ewd and offshore through this evening, within a
progressive and lifting longwave trough axis trailing a mid/upr-
level cyclone over srn QC. Related height falls and QG-forcing for
ascent will be focused along and offshore the Middle Atlantic coast,
with weakly rising heights forecast over cntl NC. Preceding that
perturbation, 35-45 kts of mid-level wswly flow now peaking over e-
cntl through nern NC will gradually weaken through this evening-
overnight.

At the surface, the sea breeze and outflow will precede a front now
stretching from near the Albemarle Sound swwd to near LBT and FLO,
which will remain quasi-stationary through the evening and early
overnight. The front will then be nudged coast-ward Tue morning, as
pressure rises preceding a 1019-1020 mb high over the OH Valley and
Midwest progress east of the Appalachians.

Visible satellite, radar, and surface observational trends indicate
the main severe risk over cntl NC will be over the srn half of
Sampson Co. through this evening, nearest a maximum of 2500-4500
J/kg MLCAPE over sern NC, per the 18Z-observed MHX RAOB and SPC
mesoanalysis data. Thus far, cells have been mostly of the
pulse/multi-cell variety and not exhibited any appreciable rotation,
suggestive that they have either not yet deepened sufficiently to
interact with the environmental shear noted above or may be
displaced slightly swd of the stronger flow/shear over nern NC. In
either event, damaging wet microbursts will pose the primary hazard,
as water and melting hail-loaded downdrafts collapse and become
diabatically-enhanced within a high DCAPE (1000-1500 K/kg) and steep
0-3 km lapse rate environment (8.5-9 C/km). Should any cells begin
to interact with the environmental shear and consequently display at
least transient rotation/supercellular characteristics, then a risk
of severe hail would also result.

While drier, nwly flow and shallow cumulus has otherwise been
present this afternoon immediately northwest of the surface front,
any outflow that surges to the nw of the ongoing convection may
produce isolated, weaker cells in a weakly unstable environment
through the evening.

It will otherwise be seasonably mild and with comfortable humidity
levels throughout the rest of cntl NC, with low temperatures in the
mid/upr 50s in rural Piedmont locations to 60s elsewhere.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally driven storms expected to return from mid
week into the weekend, with the greatest chances on Thursday and
Friday.

A longwave low amplitude H5 trough over the Ohio Valley will
gradually slide eastward by the middle of the week, as the influence
of offshore ridging gradually wanes across the region. This will
allow for a gradual increase in moisture as weak southerly flow
imports anomalously high PW`s into the area as early as
Wednesday/Thursday. Meanwhile, the longwave trough and attendant
surface cold front will approach the area from the northwest on
Thursday, serving as a focal point for shower and thunderstorm
development area-wide. It would appear the greatest storm chances on
Thursday would be across the western Piedmont in closest proximity
to the front and weak Piedmont trough, although pretty much anywhere
across central NC will have increased storm chances given abundant
PW`s and MLCAPEs around 1000-1500 J/kG.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are expected area-wide on
Friday as the surface front slides into NC.  How far southward this
front makes it before it stalls out is likely the biggest piece of
forecast uncertainty that we`re encountering today. The lack of
strong post-frontal northwesterly flow aloft would suggest the front
will likely stall over NC, then buckle back northward or wash out
completely this weekend. Naturally this would allow for a continued
period of afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances. With the flow
aloft gradually taking on a more zonal component this weekend,
convection within the Piedmont trough as well as sea breeze induced
storms seem like the most likely outcome.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

Scattered convection will continue to develop and deepen over the ern
Carolinas this afternoon, along both the sea breeze and a quasi-
stationary front and wave of low pressure, with the latter centered
near LBT/FAY at 1730Z. Lingering low-level moisture along and
preceding that front will favor the development of areas of fog and
low stratus tonight-Tue morning, including at and especially just
southeast of FAY and RWI. High pressure and associated
continental/dry air will otherwise build from the OH Valley to the
srn Middle Atlantic and favor VFR conditions over cntl NC through
Tue.

Outlook: Onshore/return flow, and associated moistening low-levels,
will favor the development of areas of fog and low stratus Wed
morning at FAY and possibly near GSO/INT. Moisture will further
increase and support the development throughout cntl NC of areas of
IFR-MVFR stratus Thu morning and following MVFR stratocumulus
through early Thu afternoon. That increase in moisture will also
contribute to increasing chances of diurnal convection Wed-Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/Leins
AVIATION...MWS