Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

578
FXUS62 KRAH 311924
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
324 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

* Prolonged increased fire danger risk is expected to continue
  through Wednesday and another fire danger statement will be
  officially issued later this evening for Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 320 PM Tuesday...

1) Increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban
remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning until
further notice.

2) Scattered showers and isolated storms are possible across
the western Piedmont late Wed afternoon.

3) After mainly dry conditions on Thursday, isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms are possible mainly in the western
Piedmont on Friday and Saturday. More widespread showers and storms
are expected on Sunday/Sunday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Increased fire danger continues today. A statewide burn ban
remains in place, which prohibits all open outdoor burning
until further notice.

NC forestry officials remain very concerned about the high risk
for dangerous fire weather conditions today and again on
Wednesday. The ongoing drought and paucity of rainfall in the
last 90 days is contributing to very dry fuels and tree litter,
and minimum RH is expected to be around 35-45% across all of
central NC today, with frequent gusts in the 15-25 mph range.
These factors all suggest the potential for rapid fire growth
and spread today, and a burn ban remains in effect until further
notice.

Looking ahead to Tue, the increased fire danger may persist,
although to a lesser degree, given that frequent gusts to up to
20 mph will occur again tomorrow. Although RH values will
likely be about 5% higher, this will have negligible impact on
risk for rapid fire growth. Another increased fire danger
statement will be needed for Wed and will be officially issued
this evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Scattered showers and isolated storms are possible across the
western Piedmont late Wed afternoon.

Continued southwesterly moisture/thermal advection in the low-
lvls will support unseasonably warm temperatures (mid 80s) and
limited diurnal mixing/lowering of afternoon dew points (upper
50s to low 60s). This will likely result in seasonably high
instability (500- 1500 MLCAPE) over a majority of the Piedmont
to the NC Foothills by Wed afternoon. Although convective
temperatures may be met anywhere in this area and result in
isolated/scattered showers, most hi-res guidance suggests the
bulk of the convective chances/coverage will initially develop
over the high terrain (orographic circulation forcing) and spill
slowly eastward into the western Piedmont through the late
afternoon and early evening hours.

Kinematics through the depth of the profile will be relatively
weak and erratic due to proximity with the sub-tropical ridge
over the western Atlantic. Moderately steep low-lvl lapse rates
(> 8.5 C/km) and moderate DCAPE (> 800 J/kg) could support
locally strong wind gusts (30-50 mph) provided deep convection
is able to develop and sustain itself into our forecast area,
which based on latest 12z guidance, may be very limited in
coverage and duration.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
After mainly dry conditions on Thursday, isolated
to widely scattered showers and storms are possible mainly in the
western Piedmont on Friday and Saturday. More widespread showers and
storms are expected on Sunday/Sunday night with a cold frontal
passage.

The mid-level high over the western Atlantic will retrograde back
westward on Thursday, resulting in weak height rises and a relative
minimum in precipitation chances across central NC, with mainly dry
conditions expected. Thursday could be another day of fire weather
concerns given RH values dropping to 35-45% in the afternoon, wind
gusts up to 20 mph, and the very dry fuels in place.

Isolated to widely scattered pulse-type convection will then be
possible again on Friday and Saturday afternoons as the mid-level
high begins shifting back east in response to a trough pushing east
over the Central US. This chance will be highest over the western
Piedmont which will be furthest removed from the subtropical ridge
and where some orographically-enhanced convection may trickle east
from the Mountains and Foothills. PW values will increase back to
150-200% of normal, and with highs mostly in the lower-80s, CAPE of
a few hundred J/kg will be possible in the west. Guidance is showing
potential for some seabreeze convection moving into our SE zones on
Saturday as well. Due to the fairly weak instability and ensemble
mean and WPC QPF generally around a tenth of an inch or less on
average, convective coverage is expected to be low.

On Sunday afternoon and evening, more widespread showers and storms
are possible along and ahead of a strong cold frontal passage. With
mid-level flow in the 40-60 kt range, shear could be sufficient for
isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence is still low at
this time especially with instability continuing to look limited in
the guidance. Ensemble mean QPF is generally a quarter to half an
inch which should still provide only limited relief from the ongoing
drought.

Conditions behind the front on Monday and Tuesday will turn much
cooler with highs in the 60s and lows in the lower-to-mid-40s. The
region should also be largely free of precipitation early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

High confidence in VFR conditions through the critical initial
6-9 hr window of the 18z TAFs. SCT/BKN 5-7 kft fair-weather cu
and gusty southwesterly winds will continue over the forecast
area through the daylight hours. An isolated shower may drift
towards INT this evening, but chances are very low (< 10%) After
sunset, wind gusts will gradually weaken along with diminishing
cloud cover. Marginal LLWS is expected at the northern TAF
sites as a surface inversion develops around 1,500 ft and flow
increases to 40 kts.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered convection developing over the
high terrain over western NC and drifting eastward into the
Piedmont will be possible late Wed afternoon (15-35% chance)
and again Fri afternoon (15-40%). Patchy early-morning fog
and/or low stratus can`t be ruled out Wed- Fri.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

April 1:
KGSO: 90/1910
KRDU: 89/1974
KFAY: 87/2010

April 2:
KGSO: 87/2010
KRDU: 90/1967
KFAY: 90/1974

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1:
KGSO: 63/2016
KRDU: 67/2016
KFAY: 67/2016

April 2:
KGSO: 61/1979
KRDU: 66/2024
KFAY: 66/2024

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/Danco
AVIATION...AS