Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

200
FXUS62 KRAH 012015
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal zone will waver over VA through Friday, then move south
and across central NC Friday night. Low pressure will track across
and offshore the Southeast Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

At the base of a broad trough anchored by a vortex over Hudson Bay,
a low amplitude shortwave perturbation now over WI will dig quickly
sewd, in 100+ kt nwly upr-level flow, across the Virginias through
this evening, then offshore. It will do so amid a regime of rising
heights aloft behind a more significant shortwave trough now
pivoting offshore New England. The related synoptic pattern aloft,
combined with favorable thermodynamic profiles over and in the lee
of the srn Appalachians, will maintain strong but gradually waning
orographic ascent centered over cntl and ern NC through this
evening, per model forecast cross sections and as evidence by the
persistent plume of both orographic cirrus and contrails there
today.

At the surface, a backdoor cold front, now stretching from the far
nrn Pamlico Sound nwwd into south-cntl VA, may progress a little
farther swwd and stall near or just south of the Roanoke River
tonight. It will do so between a couple of weakening highs over the
Gulf and OH Valley, respectively, with the former a stronger one by
a few millibars and consequently responsible for the stall (and
later retreat) of the front.

Skies will become mainly clear tonight, once the aforementioned
orographic ascent/ cirrus, and also diurnal cumulus, diminish by this
evening. Associated clear, and calm to light and variable surface
winds, will favor strong radiational cooling and low temperatures
mostly in the upr 20s to lwr 30s.

&&


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Thursday...

* Unseasonably mild, with a little light rain over swrn zones by Sat
  morning

A shortwave trough now over the Bay Area will continue to progress
inland and across the cntl Great Basin Fri and into the ArkLatex by
12Z Sat. It will be preceded by a couple of lower amplitude
shortwave perturbations, now over swrn NV and SoCal, which are
forecast to progress across the Southeast through the same time. An
associated 700-600 mb-centered WAA regime will progress across the
srn Appalachians and Carolinas late Fri night-Sat morning.

At the surface, a front initially over nern NC and/or srn VA will
retreat briefly nwd into cntl VA Fri, then collapse swd and into
cntl NC Fri night. Meanwhile, a weak lee cyclone (~1005 mb) will
progress across the srn Plains and into the TN Valley.

Downstream of the aforementioned shortwave features, initially thin,
high clouds Fri morning will thicken and lower and be accompanied by
virga through the evening. A slug of more-substantial lift and
saturation will arrive with the mid-level WAA Sat morning, with
associated light, measurable rain that will likely overspread the
srn Piedmont and Sandhills Sat morning. Despite the thickening and
lowering high through mid-level clouds, warm sector temperatures
over cntl NC will likely be boosted by 20-30 kts of wly downslope
flow and into the upr 50s to lwr 60s Fri afternoon, or about a
category higher than those of Thu. Low temperatures Fri night will
be regulated mostly by the aforementioned cloud cover and remain
unseasonably mild and in the mid 30s to lwr-mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

Upper pattern: A short-wave will transit the southern Plains/Deep
South Friday into Saturday night. Nwly aloft returns over central NC
Sunday through early Wednesday as an anomalous mid-level ridge re-
amplifies over the central US. A weak short-wave will glance by to
the north Wednesday night into Thursday.

The aforementioned weak short-wave will move across the Deep South
Friday evening and push offshore through Saturday evening.
Associated mid-level perturbations will move across the southeast
Friday evening and into the overnight period. At the sfc, models
depict a weak low developing Friday night over the Gulf states. Lift
associated with these features should promote the development of
light rain over the Deep South Friday evening that will shift east
with time through Saturday morning. Most guidance skirts the sfc low
just to our south, keeping us locked into nnely flow with cool,
cloudy, and wet conditions.  Highs continue to trend down with upper
30s expected across the northern Piedmont to around 50 at the NC/SC
border Saturday afternoon. Overall QPF currently ranges between a
few tenths of an inch across the NC/VA border to up to three
quarters of an inch across the NC/SC border.

Any lingering light rain should move east of the area by early
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.

Dry high pressure will settle in behind the exiting weak short-wave
as nwly flow aloft dominates into early next week. After a cooler
day Monday (highs in the mid 40s NE to lower 50s SW), we`ll see
temperatures rise to above normal into the lower to mid 60s by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions and wnwly to wly surface winds, gusty mainly across
the Piedmont and RWI each afternoon, will prevail through the TAF
period.

Outlook: Rain and flight restrictions will result across cntl NC Sat
and Sat night, as low pressure tracks across and offshore the
Southeast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS