Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

783
FXUS62 KRAH 160507
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
107 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Forecast solutions featuring a more progressive front pushing
  into and lingering over the Carolinas is becoming more
  likely; favoring more persistent cloud cover and more
  seasonable temperatures on Saturday, which could lingering
  into Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

1) The chance for storms returns to the forecast late this week
Friday and into early next week as a humid airmass returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The chance for storms returns to the forecast
late this week Friday and into early next week as a humid
airmass returns.

The anomalous upper ridge over the region is forecast to
gradually shift west toward the southern Plains of the US late
this week and weekend into the early part of next week. As that
happens, west to northwest flow in the mid-upper levels will
allow for a frontal system to approach Friday into Saturday.
Moisture levels will correspondingly increase to well above
seasonal normals with precipitable water values around 2 inches
Friday and Friday night. These moisture levels are expected to
remain elevated near the 90th percentile for mid-September in
the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range through early next week.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance has shown a more
progressive cold front on Friday compared to previous solutions,
leading to an increase in storm chances late Friday into Friday
night. The front is expected to drop in from the northeast,
though perhaps stall out over the area Saturday before washing
out sometime late this weekend Sunday. Shear profiles are quite
unremarkable Friday, such that a severe threat is not expected
at this point. But the boundary nearby will favor that isolated
to scattered storm activity during peak heating.

From Sunday onward, ensemble guidance continues to show a
potential unsettled pattern, albeit with low predictability, for
afternoon and evening isolated/scattered storms. The pattern is
not really conducive to widespread activity, but well above
average moisture levels will promote this storm chance.

For temperatures, we end the week generally in the lower 90s,
falling into mainly the mid 80s to around 90 through the
remainder of the period. Dewpoints get soupy into the low 70s
this weekend, resulting in an end to the comfortable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF
period. Easterly advection of 2,500 to 4,500 ft cigs over
western NC may develop/shift towards the Triad terminals around
sunrise and produce a brief low-VFR to high MVFR cig. Confidence
in multiple hours of an MVFR ceiling is low; best chance will
be in the window from 10- 15z. Crossover temp around RWI (58
degrees) from this afternoon may be met tonight (within +3
degrees). Given local effects, a few hours of mist will be
possible before quickly clearing around sunrise.

Outlook: A risk of shallow, radiation fog/mist at RWI will
continue for Thu and Fri morning. Widely scattered convection
over wrn NC Thu afternoon may drift into the INT vicinity by
early evening, followed by a better chance of convection along a
passing cold front Friday afternoon-evening, especially over
the Piedmont. Nely flow behind that front will increase the
chances for IFR-MVFR ceilings Sat morning, lowest and most
likely at INT/GSO.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...AS/MWS