Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

119
FXUS62 KRAH 212350
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
750 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for southern counties this
   afternoon.

*  Flood watch expanded to Anson county.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM Friday...

1) There is a risk of excessive rainfall across the
entire forecast area, primarily during the afternoon and early
evening.

2) There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across the
entire forecast area this afternoon and evening, with the greatest
threat along and south of US-64.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... There is a risk of excessive rainfall across the
entire forecast area, primarily during the afternoon and early
evening.

The Weather Prediction Center has the entire forecast area
under a slight (level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. Locally,
a flood watch was issued overnight for much of the area, excluding
the Triad and areas northeast of the Triangle, going through
Saturday morning. A boundary is set up across southern counties,
having pushed slightly farther south than anticipated. From Sanford
and Erwin to the northeast, low clouds and northerly flow have kept
temperatures primarily in the 70s, while out in the Triad and
southern counties, more sun has allowed for temperatures to climb in
the 80s and lower 90s. While convective-allowing models have
performed poorly over the last day or two, there are still
indications that thunderstorms currently developing along the North
Carolina/South Carolina border will expand in coverage and push to
the north during the afternoon. With slow storm movement, deep
moisture, and "skinny CAPE", these storms will have the potential to
bring multiple inches of rain in a short period of time. In
particular, the 12Z HREF shows approximately a 50% potential for 3
inches of rain in 3 hours just to the south of the Triangle during
the late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will likely peak in
coverage before sunset, continue into the evening, then rapidly drop
off after midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across the
entire forecast area this afternoon and evening, with the greatest
threat along and south of US-64.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Triad and counties
along the VA/NC border in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk, with the
rest of the forecast area in a slight (level 2 of 5) risk. The
primary threat is damaging winds, although large hail cannot be
ruled out. As of 2pm, there is minimal MLCAPE and large amounts of
CIN along and to the north of US-64, while the greatest instability
is to the south of the boundary that was discussed in Key Message 1.
That is the primary reason that the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that
was issued around 1:30pm only included the southern half of the
forecast area and did not extend any farther to the north. Across
Cumberland and Sampson counties, the MLCAPE is as high as 3000 J/kg.
There is at least 30 kt of effective bulk shear across the forecast
area, which should help to eventually organize storms. The greatest
threat for severe thunderstorms should be over the next several
hours, and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is valid through 9pm.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 750 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: A line of storms will impact KRDU and possibly
KRWI this evening, with a larger area of rain and embedded
showers/storms likely to impact KGSO, KFAY, KRDU, and KRWI for the
next several hours. Additional showers/storms could develop near
KINT between issuance and midnight, but confidence is lower there.
Cigs should come down to MVFR and IFR this evening, then likely
lowering further to LIFR overnight. Vsbys should also drop below
VFR, generally in the 1-4 SM range most sites. Cigs will be slow to
lift on Saturday, with sub-VFR possible into the early-mid
afternoon, latest northeast (KRWI). There could be some iso/sct
showers/storms Sat aft, mainly at KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI, but
confidence is still somewhat low at this time.

Outlook: Widespread restrictions are not currently forecast for any
sites Saturday night, although if precipitation is heavy enough,
there could be local restrictions. Dry VFR conditions are expected
Sunday through Tuesday night before a chance of thunderstorms
returns to all terminals Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ023>025-039>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...10/Green