Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

664
FXUS62 KRAH 261635
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1235 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible within a larger area
   of a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the overnight
   period, especially in the northeast Piedmont, northern Coastal
   Plain, into the central Coastal Plain.

*  A slight chance of severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) for Tuesday
   into Tuesday night. Damaging wind the main threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1235 PM Sunday...

1) An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible within a larger area
   of a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the overnight
   period, especially in the northeast Piedmont, northern Coastal
   Plain, into the central Coastal Plain.

2) A slight chance of severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) for Tuesday
   into Tuesday night. Damaging wind the main threat.

3) A return to a more dry pattern on Wednesday, with rain chances
   increasing next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1235 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible within
a larger area of a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the
overnight period, especially in the northeast Piedmont, northern
Coastal Plain, into the central Coastal Plain.

The H5 trough continued to remain over the eastern states with the
main trough axis offshore of New England and Mid-Atlantic coast. The
Flow aloft over NC was from the NW and this can be problematic in
the summer. Cold air aloft associated with the trough and
periods of lift associated with the leading edge of disturbances
within the flow bring unsettled conditions with a chance of
showers/storms.

It has been stable across the region today as the residual low
stratus associated with the previous days CAD event lingered. Even at
early afternoon, only some elevated instability was noted
increasing over top of central NC from the NW, with lingering
stable stratocumulus over much of the region. Temperatures have
struggled to even reach the mid 70s to near 80.

Another shortwave is expected to track from the Great Lakes SE
into the Mid-Atlantic region tonight, which is expected
to bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms across
portions of VA into north-central and NE NC. The hi-res models are
still varying in the placement of the higher POP, but the general
outlook is for an increase in instability with the approach of the
disturbance along with an increase in moisture again tonight. The NW
flow aloft is also expected to increase and we will be on the
southern end of the stronger winds aloft tonight into Monday. This
may support some organized storms overnight which may track into our
region from VA. WE will carry 40-60 POP in the northern and eastern
Piedmont into the Coastal Plain overnight. This activity should exit
SE early Monday, followed by another chance of PM showers/storms
later as additional energy from upstream approaches in the
increasing NW flow aloft and MLCapes late in the day as highs reach
the mid 80s to lower 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A slight chance of severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) for Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Damaging wind the main threat.

Yet a stronger NW flow and another strong disturbance aloft will
approach later MOnday night and Tuesday. Models agree that we will
we unstable and becoming moreso with heating Tuesday into the upper
80s to lower 90s. MLCapes may exceed 1500-2000 j/kg. However, early
morning thunderstorm complex(s) may send outflow boundaries into the
region Tuesday morning as the storms weaken on late night and
morning approach from the central Appalachians. Even so, renewed
development is expected Tuesday afternoon along a pre-frontal trough
or residual outflow boundaries over the Piedmont, then move into the
Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Some of the storms may become severe,
with damaging wind the main threat. Although there is currently a
slight risk for essentially the entire area for severe storms
Tuesday into Tuesday night, this has plenty of potential to change
given much of our forecast Tuesday will rely on what happens with
the storms upstream early Tuesday and the placement of outflow and
pre-frontal boundaries to start the day Tuesday. Stay tuned.

It appears that the best chance of strong to severe storms will be
during the afternoon into the evening for our region, as new
development should occur by early afternoon on the said boundaries
and last well into the night as they spread SE.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A return to a more dry pattern on Wednesday, with
rain chances increasing next weekend.

After the frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, high
pressure will build in as the front stalls to our south. Each
afternoon will have high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
with lows dipping into the mid 60s to lower 70s. These temperatures
are normal for this time of year. The front will also usher in drier
air, with PWs around 1.2 in Wednesday through Friday. This will
diminish rain chances, however a very isolated shower cannot be
ruled out each afternoon. Rain chances look to increase next weekend
as the front starts to retrograde back northward and a mid-level
disturbance approaches the region from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Sunday...

The ceilings have gradually lifted and MVFR to VFR stratocumulus
remain over much of the region. There continued to be some showers
in the Foothills and SW Piedmont with the NW flow aloft.

A few showers are possible near INT/GSO between 18z and 21z, with a
low chance of thunder. RDU/RWI/FAY will have a chance of
showers and storms overnight, after 03z, lingering through 09z
or so.

Some stratus/fog is possible again, especially in the RDU/RWI areas
later tonight.

Looking beyond 12z Mon, areas of sub-VFR conditions are likely to
last until around 13z-14z. Scattered showers and storms are possible
in the E (RDU/RWI/FAY) Mon afternoon into early evening, then a
higher chance of scattered to numerous storms (some potentially
strong to severe) is expected again Tuesday, mainly afternoon
through the evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/LH
AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield