Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

340
FXUS62 KRAH 111019
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 600 AM
EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

* Highs today continue to trend upward, setting additional records.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

1) Record warmth again today with an air mass more typical of early
July.

2) A strong cold front will bring widespread showers Thursday, with
a few strong storms possible, mainly SE of the Triangle.

3) Another strong cold front will shift across the region late
Sunday night into Monday and bring a low-end risk for severe weather
in the Coastal Plain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Record warmth again today with an air mass more
typical of early July.

The earliest 90 degree high for so early in the season is possible
at Raleigh (current earliest 90 degree high record is March 12,
1990).

The big weather story around central NC continues to revolve around
record temperatures. Low level thicknesses are still expected to
reach around 1410m, which is more typical of early July.

Some increase in high cloudiness in the afternoon may keep
temperatures down a degree or two from current projections in the
mid 80s NW and upper 80s to near 90 from Fayetteville to Raleigh.

These temperatures are likely to break additional warm records (see
climate section).

SW winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph this
afternoon. Peak winds around 30 are expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front will bring widespread showers
Thursday, with a few strong storms possible, mainly SE of the
Triangle.

Confidence remains high in the timing of a strong cold front that
will move NW to SE through central NC Thu, entering the Triad in the
early morning hours and exiting our southeast during the mid to late
afternoon. This cold front will be associated with a deep phasing
mid level trough, currently unphased over the High Plains/Front
Range down to far N Mexico. Some precip with this system will be
convective in nature at the leading edge of the front, but guidance
favors most precip being anafrontal. Moisture will be plentiful
throughout the low levels (as the Gulf will be well tapped within a
stout SW prefrontal flow starting late today) as well as in the mid
and upper levels (widespread deep convective debris clouds are
evident ahead of the trough on WV imagery over the S Plains). Height
falls and strong kinematics will contribute to robust forcing for
ascent, but the degree of instability ahead of and with the front is
less certain. Our NW half should see too many clouds and too early a
frontal passage for much CAPE, but if our SE half can manage a
little insolation, we could see several hundred J/kg of SBCAPE by
the afternoon hours, as corroborated by the latest HREF. With high
confidence in 40-50 kts of deep layer bulk shear, a few strong
storms producing enhanced wind gusts are possible, mainly SE of the
Triangle area, but overall the unfavorable timing of the front and
the abundant prefrontal clouds yielding a limited window of
insolation should keep both storm strength and number limited. Even
outside of any storms, though, surface gusts up to 25-30 mph are
likely Thu. Around a half to two-thirds of an inch of rain is
expected from very late tonight through Thu, and this rain will be
beneficial given the ongoing drought conditions. After very mild
daybreak temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area, temps
will drop drastically from NW to SE with frontal passage, into the
50s and 40s by mid to late afternoon, and this sudden chill will be
reinforced by the anafrontal precip falling into the colder air, in
tandem with the gusty and brisk winds.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Another strong cold front will shift across the
region late Sunday night into Monday and bring a low-end risk for
severe weather in the Coastal Plain.

Overall there is reasonably good confidence in the evolution of the
mid/upper level pattern within the medium range. A more highly
amplified system is expected to develop over the northern/central
CONUS Sun and progress eastward into the Great Lakes into the TN
Valley by Mon. At the surface this will result in a stationary
boundary over the Carolinas to lift northward as a warm front Sun
into Sun evening as surface high pressure strengthens off the
Northeast coast while at the same time low pressure deepens over the
OH Valley. Strengthening southwesterly flow will result in a narrow
window of moisture return into the region ahead of yet another
strong cold frontal passage.

Timing of the fropa remains a point of uncertainty, but based on
cluster analysis, it appears to be sometime Mon morning to Mon
afternoon. Although this will be slightly more diurnally favored to
give time for the boundary layer to destabilize, instability still
appears to weak overall (500 J/kg or less). Mostly straight
hodographs with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear oriented parallel to
the cold front will favor strong to severe winds to be the primary
severe hazard if a severe threat were to develop.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 600 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across central NC through
06z/Thursday. Light SW winds will increase late morning into the
afternoon with gusts of 25kt.

Outlook: A 40-50 kt SW low-level jet may bring low-level wind shear
conditions this evening. This may be offset by mixing that could
keep SSW surface up at 15-20kt overnight. Thus, confidence in the
LLWS is low.

A strong cold front will bring a period showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms after 10z/Thursday morning in the NW, and during the
mid to late morning into the afternoon east. Sub-VFR conditions and
gusty/shifting winds are expected Thursday. VFR returns Fri into
Sat. Increasing moisture return may bring a return to sub-VFR
conditions and rain chances on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Hartfield/Swiggett
AVIATION...Badgett
CLIMATE...RAH