Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

392
FXUS62 KRAH 121702
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1202 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

1) A pair of cold fronts will bring gusty winds and potentially a
few light showers today and tomorrow. Frost and potentially a freeze
will be possible Friday night.

2) The chilliest air of the season will arrive and support the first
widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend, followed by continued
below average temperatures (including additional frost/freezes) and
dry conditions that will persist through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A pair of cold fronts will bring gusty winds and
potentially a few light showers today and tomorrow. Frost and
potentially a freeze will be possible Friday night.

The first cold front appears to move through the region Thursday
afternoon into the evening. The chance for pre-frontal showers is
still low, with most models suggesting that most of the rain will
dry up as the front crosses the mountains. Some very light rain may
still be possible early this morning ahead of the front, mainly in
the Triad, and this afternoon in the northern Piedmont into the
northern Coastal Plain. The REFS is suggesting that only up to trace
amounts of rain are likely, with a lesser chance of 0.01 inches in a
few locations in the north. Highs this afternoon will be dependent
on the timing of the frontal passage, but look to max out in the
upper 60s in the NW to the low/mid 70s in the SE. Winds should be
pretty gusty with and behind the frontal passage today, with
northwesterly gusts between 25-30 mph likely this afternoon and
evening. Minimum temperatures tonight should drop into the low to
mid 40s, with a few cool spots in the upper 30s.

An additional reinforcing cold front should move through the region
on Friday. Ahead of the fropa, a few waves may move through the
region. This could allow for a few additional light showers Friday
evening/night, however the chance remains low with the amount of dry
air over the region. Regardless, gusty winds will be possible again
Friday afternoon ahead of the front, with gusts between 20-25 mph
possible. Lows Friday night will also dip into the 30s. This will be
the start of the coldest air so far in the season and will likely
result in some sort of frost/freeze products. It appears that the
atmosphere will not decouple which should help keep temperatures
somewhat warmer than it looks in future nights.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The chilliest air of the season will arrive and
support the first widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend,
followed by continued below average temperatures (including
additional frost/freezes) and dry conditions that will persist
through most of next week.

A mid/upr-level cyclone will progress slowly across and offshore the
Northeast and Atlantic Canada through the weekend, followed by the
progression of a high amplitude ridge from the cntl CONUS to the
Middle Atlantic next week. The models indicate the basal portion of
a vigorous trough now progressing across the ern N. Pacific will
progress beneath the ridge and may briefly form a closed low over OK
by Sun, then deamplify while progressing ewd and across and offshore
the Southeast Mon-Wed. Mostly high-level cloudiness will
precede/accompany the latter feature and may hinder otherwise
excellent radiational cooling potential Mon morning.

At the surface, cP pressure will build from central Canada to the
Middle Atlantic this weekend through early next week, where it will
remain while gradually weakening/modifying through most of next
week.

The coldest temperatures of the period will probably result Sun
morning, by which time prior episodes of CAA will have waned, and
the MSL pressure gradient relaxed. Sub-freezing temperatures appear
likely, except for perhaps around freezing in the urban Triangle;
and a hard freeze will be possible especially in outlying/rural
Piedmont locations. While some moderation will result as the high
gradually weakens and airmass modifies through most of next week,
its continued presence and influence will yield continued below
average temperatures and multiple, consecutive mornings of
frost/freeze conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1202 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. We
cannot rule out a stray isolated sprinkle or light rain with the
passage of the cold front later this afternoon and early evening,
with the best chance at FAY/RWI. This would not result in any sub-
VFR restrictions, however. Wind gusts will become WNW this afternoon
and early evening, ranging from 22-28 kt, highest in the mid to late
afternoon hours, before diminishing tonight. Wind gusts will pick
back up tomorrow post-frontal, with gusts of 15-18 kt out of the NW.
The GFS is the only model hinting at a few MVFR ceilings at GSO/INT
this evening behind the front. However, confidence was too low to
mention at this time.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through early next week.
Gusty NW winds are expected to continue Friday and Saturday in the
15-20 kt range.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LH/MWS
AVIATION...Kren