Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

739
FXUS62 KRAH 302030
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 325 PM Friday....

Only slight adjustments were made to the snowfall forecast for this
weekend`s winter storm, but the current spread in high-resolution
model guidance is high, which reduces confidence.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 325 PM Friday...

1) A winter storm is expected to affect central NC from this evening
into Saturday night and Sunday morning. Precipitation will be all
snow, with a general 4 to 8 inches expected across most of the area,
but locally higher amounts of 8 to 12 inches will be possible, with
the best chance along and east of I-95. However, there is still
plenty of uncertainty on exact amounts.

2) A prolonged Arctic air mass in place will result in well below
normal temperatures across central NC from today through much of
next week.

3) There is a chance for precipitation mid-week, but the timing,
temperatures, and overall amounts remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A winter storm is expected to affect central NC
from this evening into Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Precipitation will be all snow, with a general 4 to 8 inches
expected across most of the area, but locally higher amounts of 8 to
12 inches will be possible, with the best chance along and east of I-
95. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty on exact amounts.

Current water vapor imagery depicts the northern stream mid/upper
trough that will be the main driver of our winter storm currently
diving south into the eastern Dakotas/MN/IA. This trough will close
into a mid/upper low as it swings over the mid MS and TN Valleys
tonight, eventually becoming negatively tilted as it moves across
and offshore the Carolinas on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Meanwhile a surface low will develop over the northern Gulf today,
taking a classic "Miller A" track as it tracks NE off the coast of
the Carolinas along a baroclinic zone on Saturday. As it interacts
with the mid/upper low and reaches the Gulf Stream on Saturday
night, it will rapidly deepen and slow down east of the Outer Banks,
becoming ~970 mb as it finally pushes NE out to sea on Sunday
afternoon. The atmosphere is sufficiently cold that all snow is
expected with this event everywhere across central NC. The main
question is how much precipitation falls and where the banding sets
up.

Light snow is already being reported in eastern KY and western VA
associated with the mid/upper low to our NW. Latest high-resolution
models suggest that it will increase in coverage to include the far
northern Piedmont of NC by early this evening. Another area of snow
associated with the coastal low is expected to develop overnight
tonight and spread into at least our far SE zones. Any snowfall
amounts through sunrise Saturday are likely to be less than an inch.

Snow should really increase in coverage and intensity beginning
Saturday morning, with the event likely peaking in the afternoon and
evening as the mid/upper low interacts with the deepening coastal
low and a band of 850 mb frontogenesis sets up. With very cold
temperatures in place, the snow will be of the dry and fluffy
variety as snow to liquid ratios through the event generally range
from 12:1 to 20:1, lowest in the SE and initially, highest in the NW
and by Saturday evening/night. Liquid equivalent QPF for the event
is generally expected to range from a third to three quarters of an
inch, lowest N and highest SE. This generally translates to 4 to 8
inches across most of central NC, but a band of 8 to 12 inches is
likely to set up somewhere over the state with the best chance along
and east of I-95. There is also a scenario where many spots receive
lower amounts that will have to be monitored, which is explained
below.

Despite only being 24 hours from the event, there is still quite a
bit of discrepancy among the models on where exactly the band of
heavier snow will be, and it will depend on where exactly the
elevated frontal zone sets up, as well as how far south the
mid/upper low tracks. This is a complex setup and small shifts in
track and intensity can have a huge effect on how much snow falls.
If the mid/upper low tracks farther south, it will take longer to
interact with the coastal low, keeping the 8+ inch amounts to our
east, and potentially resulting in lower than expected snowfall
totals across a good portion of central NC. This is the scenario
depicted by the 12z NAMNest and 18z HRRR, which depict very light
amounts stretching from the northern Coastal Plain into the NE
Piedmont due to a gap in forcing between the mid/upper low to our
west and the coastal low to our east, a signal that has shown up on
some model runs since yesterday. This is a concerning trend that
will have to be monitored to see if it continues. But until there is
more consistency from run to run, it`s hard to take this one
scenario with too much weight. High-res models have been waffling
back and forth, with a notable shift east in the axis of heaviest
snow in some of the 12z and 18z runs compared to 06z. However, if
the mid/upper low and coastal low interact sooner, as depicted by
models like the 12z GFS and lower-resolution NAM, a larger area of
moderate to heavy snow will develop over central NC. Bust potential
is fairly high and this may be a nowcasting situation where we don`t
know exactly how far inland the heaviest snow will get. For now, a
Winter Storm Warning continues from this evening through Sunday
morning.

Where moderate to heavy snow does fall, travel will likely be very
difficult if not impossible at times from Saturday into Sunday
morning, as temperatures will be cold enough for snow to stick quite
efficiently. Winds will gust to 25 to 35 mph, perhaps gusting as
high as 40 mph, particularly in the Coastal Plain. This could cause
blowing and drifting of snow, reducing visibilities to less than a
mile, especially considering it will be light and easily blown
around. There could also be isolated power outages, but the
lightweight variety of snow and lack of ice should keep trees and
power lines from being weighed down too much and prevent widespread
outages from taking place. Snow will end from west to east late
Saturday night and early Sunday morning. But gusty NW winds behind
the deepening low could keep some blowing snow through the day on
Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A prolonged Arctic air mass in place will result in
well below normal temperatures across central NC from today through
much of next week.

Cold weather headlines are in place tonight (Cold Weather Advisory)
through Saturday night (Extreme Cold Watch).  The Extreme Cold Watch
for Saturday night will likely need to be upgraded to either a Cold
Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold Warning with subsequent forecast
updates.

As the strong 1045 mb Arctic high tracks south into the central US
tonight into Saturday morning, overnight lows tonight will drop into
the mid to upper teens across central NC. The sfc pressure gradient
will start to strengthen some overnight as the offshore low begins
to develop. Forecast soundings indicate mixing potential overnight
with possible gusts of upwards to 10 to 20 mph. As such, wind chills
will likely hit upper single digits tonight/early Saturday across
most of central NC.

With persistent nly flow and a highly anomalous temperature profile
(925-850 mb temps bottom out in the 1st to 5th percentile compared
to climo), daytime highs will only reach the lower to mid 20s
Saturday afternoon (~30 degrees below normal). As we pivot to
Saturday night, wind gusts via the deepening offshore low will
increase to 25 to 35 mph (higher gusts possible across the Coastal
Plain). As such, minimum wind chills Saturday night into early
Sunday will likely reach dangerous levels (0 to -5 for most of
central NC). Blustery conditions will persist early Sunday, but
winds should lax some in the afternoon as the low pulls further
offshore.

Snow will have ended by Sunday evening. Given the lingering
snowpack,  overnight lows will easily drop into the upper single
digits to lower teens everywhere Sunday night. Winds should largely
diminish overnight Sunday as the low pulls further offshore, but
general minimum wind chills will likely reach Cold Weather Advisory
criteria for much of central NC Sunday night.

Nwly flow aloft behind the departing low keeps conditions cold
Monday as the arctic high transitions across the Chesapeake. Given
the cold airmass, and likely remnants of lingering snowpack, highs
will struggle to reach the mid to upper 30s Monday afternoon.
Overnight lows Monday will again be quite cold in the mid teens,
however calm winds should preclude the need for cold weather
advisories.

Flow aloft turns zonal Tuesday with some moderation in the low-level
thicknesses. Daytime highs will reach the lower to mid 40s both
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. A brief shot of colder air may be
possible behind our next potential system Thursday.


KEY MESSAGE 3... There is a chance for precipitation mid-week, but
the timing, temperatures, and overall amounts remain uncertain at
this time.

There continues to be a signal for potential precipitation middle of
next week but details in timing, ptype, and potential impacts are
vague at this point. It does appear that guidance is at least in
some agreement that this may be more in line with a classic Miller B
setup, which could lead to mixed ptypes. For now, given the
uncertainty this far out, decided to keep in just rain/snow mix at
times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Friday...

TAF period: VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon into
the evening, but ceilings will decrease as more moisture moves into
the region with snow developing late this evening into the overnight
hours. It`s still a little early to determine where banding may set
up, although there is definitely potential for that to occur
overnight into Saturday. Widespread IFR visibilities are expected by
sunrise, although this will likely be delayed until after the TAF
period at RWI. The wind will be out of the east-northeast around 5
kt through the afternoon, with 20-25 kt gusts developing this
evening into the overnight hours at all sites.

Outlook: Widespread light to moderate snow will continue through
Saturday and Saturday night, tapering off by Sunday morning.
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue in snow, and gusts could reach as
high as 30-35 kt Saturday night and Sunday. VFR conditions should
return on Sunday, although with gusty wind continuing, cannot rule
out restrictions due to blowing snow with the fresh snowpack. The
next chance for precipitation will be on Wednesday, with
temperatures likely warm enough for any precipitation to fall as
rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:

January 31: KGSO: 3/1966, KRDU: 3/1966, KFAY: 9/1934
February 1: KGSO:-4/1936, KRDU: 8/1981, KFAY: 1/1936


Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

February 1: KGSO: 27/1971, KRDU: 28/1900, KFAY: 32/1981
February 2: KGSO: 30/1951, KRDU: 31/1994, KFAY: 31/1948
February 3: KGSO: 23/1996, KRDU: 24/1996, KFAY: 30/1961

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Sunday for NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084.
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
morning for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Sunday for NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JD/NL
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH