Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

908
FXUS62 KRAH 251806
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
205 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Isolated pockets of heavy rainfall remain possible through this
  evening, and are possible again Tue.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 205 PM Monday...

1) Numerous showers and isolated to scattered storms both today and
Tue may produce pockets of heavy rainfall, although not everyone
will see heavy rain.

2) Wetter pattern begins to break down, although most of the
extended forecast will still have a chance of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Numerous showers and isolated to scattered storms
both today and Tue may produce pockets of heavy rainfall, although
not everyone will see heavy rain.

As previous shifts have noted, we remain in a high-PW environment
near 2", about 175-200% of normal, with a deep feed of moisture from
the Atlantic and Gulf from the surface through the mid levels. This
is manifesting in spotty areas of decent rain rates, from a tenth to
over a half inch per hour within storm clusters from just south of
the Triad into the Triangle and down into the S Coastal Plain and E
Sandhills. The surface front analyzed from the S Plains across the
Mid Miss Valley and Ohio Valley to the E Great Lakes will remain to
our N through Tue, keeping us status quo within steady influx of
warm moist air amidst broad SBCAPE and shots of dynamic forcing for
ascent, including that generated by subtle mid level perturbations
and MCVs being drawn N and NNE around the periphery of the offshore-
centered mid level anticyclone. RAP-based mesoanalysis shows 1000-
2500 SBCAPE over the area, supporting the current convection despite
deep layer bulk shear generally under 20 kts. Hi-res models show the
current area of showers and storms persisting over mainly our
central and SE, as activity continues to track NNE from SC into
early evening. We`ll also see convection blossoming over the higher
terrain spreading NE and E late afternoon through this evening
affecting the N and W Piedmont, with lift boosted in the right
entrance region of a jet core to our N, augmented by MCVs rolling up
from the Gulf Coast. Will start with highest pops from the Hwy 1
corridor east, followed quickly by a peak on pops from the Triangle
to the N and W through this evening. While river and stream levels
are very low due to the ongoing drought conditions, any high rain
rates could result in rapid runoff and ponding of water on roads and
in low and poor drainage areas. The exit of dynamic forcing and
nocturnal relative stabilization should result in a trend to a lull
in pops after 2 AM tonight.

Looking ahead to Tue, with no significant change in air mass, source
region, or forcing mechanisms, persistence should rule. After
considerable overnight stratus and patches of fog, another slow
lifting of this low deck is expected through the morning, then any
bit of insolation and heating will push up CAPE values to support
scattered to numerous showers and storms in the still-damp column.
While this will mean another threat of storm clusters with locally
high rain rates, exactly where this rain might fall is difficult to
pinpoint. The latest HREF members show a somewhat similar pattern to
today, with the highest afternoon pops in our SE, trending to having
the higher pops in the NW by evening as activity rolls off the
mountains. Overall, though, pops will be above normal, and isolated
street flooding will again be possible.


KEY MESSAGE 2 ... Wetter pattern begins to break down, although most
of the extended forecast will still have a chance of showers.

A stationary front that has been anchored across Virginia will slide
south through North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday. While
this will still keep a high chance of rain in the forecast, flow out
of the west will not contain as much moisture as the southerly flow
that has been occurring over the weekend, and overall rain totals
should be less. Much of Thursday night and Friday should be dry
across the area. However, the front should then become hung up
across South Carolina and Georgia through the weekend, and a wave of
low pressure will ride along the front. The low should bring some
higher chances of rain back into the forecast, primarily to the
south of US-64 and the highest on Saturday and Saturday night. The
front will then continue to push south, and the chance of rain will
decrease. Highs will be in the 80s Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday,
with highs dropping into the 70s for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

Most central NC terminals have improved from earlier IFR conditions
to MVFR cigs (including GSO/RDU/RWI), with IFR conditions shifted to
the NW of central NC, and RWI/FAY periodically VFR as holes break
within the lower cloud deck. But FAY/RWI/RDU have the highest chance
of seeing scattered to numerous showers and isolated clusters of
storms through this afternoon and early evening, producing brief
gusty and erratic winds and brief sub-VFR vsbys. Starting mid
evening at 01z-03z, northern areas including GSO/RDU have the
highest chance of showers and isolated storms, lasting into the
overnight hours before weakening and dissipating by 06z. Otherwise,
cigs will continue to slowly rise today, and a short period of
mostly VFR conditions is expected at central NC terminals from 20z
to about 02z. Soon after 02z, a redevelopment of MVFR then IFR
clouds is expected, with the lowest cigs expected 07z-13z Tue
morning. Gradual improvement is again expected late morning to early
afternoon Tue, toward the end of the TAF valid period, with cigs
likely to be high-end MVFR or VFR by 17z. Another round of scattered
to numerous showers and a few storms is again possible starting late
morning Tue, and these could affect any of the terminals. Surface
winds will be mainly from the SSW or SW at 8-14 kts, except mostly
under 8 kts during the nighttime hours.

Looking beyond 18z Tue, showers and isolated storms may again impact
central NC terminals through the evening. The cycle of low stratus
and patchy fog from late evening through mid morning will persist
through Thu, with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms
possible. Drier weather is expected Fri behind a cold front, but a
few showers and storms may return Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019

May 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004

May 27: KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006

May 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Green
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH