Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

082
FXUS62 KRAH 130407
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1230 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  Aviation discussion has been updated.

*  Transitioning to more of a FF threat, severe threat will be on
   the wane through late evening - focus on Raleigh east and south.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 859 PM Sunday...

1) Clusters of showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
Locally heavy rain possible, and a still an isolated severe wind
gust is possible. New storms later in the NW?

2) Much below normal temperatures Monday, with highest rain chances
confined to the west and south.

3) Heat returns midweek, followed by thunderstorm chances late in
the week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 859 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... transitioning to more of a FF threat, severe threat
will be on the wane through late evening - focus on Raleigh east
and south.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
Locally heavy rain possible, and a still an isolated severe wind
gust is possible. New storms later in the NW?

The severe threat is now confined to mainly areas around Raleigh and
to the south and east for the next couple of hours. Strong
convergence due to interesting low level boundaries are focusing on
this region. Winds have gusted to 55+ mph in some of the small wet
microbursts in the Severe thunderstorm warning areas. This threat
will be shifting south in the next few hours into
Johnston/Harnett/Wayne Counties. Expect a continued wind damage
threat with gusts to 50-60 mph and a wall of heavy rain that will
last 15-20 minutes in any one location.

The FF threat is isolated and confined mainly urban areas where the
3 inch per hour rates will produce rapid runoff. The latest hi-res
guidance suggests this FF threat may shift to the NW later tonight
into portions of the Triad with renewed convection as the main front
moves SW into that region focusing convergence there.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Much below normal temperatures Monday, with highest
rain chances confined to the west and south.

As the front settles largely S of the area by Mon, the threat for
heavy rain in training cells and convective clusters will be over
across our S, with much lower chances over our northern two-thirds.
As a CAD-like regime sets up, the presence of considerable cloud
cover (esp over the NW) to hinder heating plus a light NNE/NE low
level flow drawing lower dewpoints and more stable air into the area
will allow for a much cooler day, including highs in the 70s over
the Piedmont, around 10 to 15 degrees below normal and a welcome
respite from the very hot temps of the last several weeks. The I-95
corridor east should see highs around 80/low 80s.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Heat returns midweek, followed by thunderstorm
chances late in the week and weekend.

The front passing through the area right now should still be in
close enough proximity to central North Carolina to provide some
rain on Tuesday, although it appears there will likely be a tight
gradient between what falls along the VA/NC border (nothing) and the
NC/SC border (a good amount of rain). As the front slips farther to
the south, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday now all appear to be dry.
While Friday was previously under a SPC outlook for severe weather,
the area of concern shifted north with SPC`s latest outlook. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast for
Saturday and Sunday with moisture arriving from the north.

In the meantime, after a cool day on Monday, temperatures will rise
slightly on Tuesday, then the 90s return for the rest of the
forecast. The current forecast doesn`t call for any daily records,
but Thursday and/or Friday could possibly approach heat advisory
criteria before the weekend precipitation brings temperatures down
slightly.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

Adverse weather conditions will continue through all of Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be slow moving
over central NC through 12z, with the focus in all but the far NE
around KRWI and northward. Thunderstorms are likely along and south
of I-40 from the Triad to Raleigh to Wilmington. In addition, cigs
will continue to lower into the IFR range with low stratus in most
areas.

From 12z Monday into the afternoon, expect widespread IFR conditions
with areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms with very heavy
rainfall at times. Low stratus will linger along with MVFR to IFR
vsbys in between the showers/storms.

Looking beyond 00z/Tue, sub-VFR cigs are likely to persist into
Monday night, especially south and west of KRWI. The chance of
showers and storms will decrease and shift south with time late
Monday and Monday evening. Significant improvements will occur
Tuesday in all areas as VFR conditions should dominate
Tue-Fri, although scattered PM thunderstorm chances may start to
return by Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

July 16: KRDU: 101/1887

July 17: KRDU: 100/1887 KFAY: 102/1932


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 12: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/2011 KFAY: 80/1935

July 16: KGSO: 75/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 78/1992

July 17: KGSO: 75/2025 KRDU: 80/1887 KFAY: 77/2019

July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KFAY: 77/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...CA/Badgett
CLIMATE...RAH