Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

479
FXUS62 KRAH 262300
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated Aviation discussion through Monday evening.

* An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible within a larger area
  of a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the overnight
  period, especially in the northeast Piedmont, northern Coastal
  Plain, into the central Coastal Plain.

*  A slight chance of severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) for Tuesday
   into Tuesday night. Damaging wind the main threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1235 PM Sunday...

1) An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible within a larger area
   of a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the overnight
   period, especially in the northeast Piedmont, northern Coastal
   Plain, into the central Coastal Plain.

2) A slight chance of severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) for Tuesday
   into Tuesday night. Damaging wind the main threat.

3) A return to a more dry pattern on Wednesday, with rain chances
   increasing next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1235 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible within
a larger area of a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the
overnight period, especially in the northeast Piedmont, northern
Coastal Plain, into the central Coastal Plain.

The H5 trough continued to remain over the eastern states with the
main trough axis offshore of New England and Mid-Atlantic coast. The
Flow aloft over NC was from the NW and this can be problematic in
the summer. Cold air aloft associated with the trough and
periods of lift associated with the leading edge of disturbances
within the flow bring unsettled conditions with a chance of
showers/storms.

It has been stable across the region today as the residual low
stratus associated with the previous days CAD event lingered. Even at
early afternoon, only some elevated instability was noted
increasing over top of central NC from the NW, with lingering
stable stratocumulus over much of the region. Temperatures have
struggled to even reach the mid 70s to near 80.

Another shortwave is expected to track from the Great Lakes SE
into the Mid-Atlantic region tonight, which is expected
to bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms across
portions of VA into north-central and NE NC. The hi-res models are
still varying in the placement of the higher POP, but the general
outlook is for an increase in instability with the approach of the
disturbance along with an increase in moisture again tonight. The NW
flow aloft is also expected to increase and we will be on the
southern end of the stronger winds aloft tonight into Monday. This
may support some organized storms overnight which may track into our
region from VA. WE will carry 40-60 POP in the northern and eastern
Piedmont into the Coastal Plain overnight. This activity should exit
SE early Monday, followed by another chance of PM showers/storms
later as additional energy from upstream approaches in the
increasing NW flow aloft and MLCapes late in the day as highs reach
the mid 80s to lower 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A slight chance of severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) for Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Damaging wind the main threat.

Yet a stronger NW flow and another strong disturbance aloft will
approach later MOnday night and Tuesday. Models agree that we will
we unstable and becoming moreso with heating Tuesday into the upper
80s to lower 90s. MLCapes may exceed 1500-2000 j/kg. However, early
morning thunderstorm complex(s) may send outflow boundaries into the
region Tuesday morning as the storms weaken on late night and
morning approach from the central Appalachians. Even so, renewed
development is expected Tuesday afternoon along a pre-frontal trough
or residual outflow boundaries over the Piedmont, then move into the
Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Some of the storms may become severe,
with damaging wind the main threat. Although there is currently a
slight risk for essentially the entire area for severe storms
Tuesday into Tuesday night, this has plenty of potential to change
given much of our forecast Tuesday will rely on what happens with
the storms upstream early Tuesday and the placement of outflow and
pre-frontal boundaries to start the day Tuesday. Stay tuned.

It appears that the best chance of strong to severe storms will be
during the afternoon into the evening for our region, as new
development should occur by early afternoon on the said boundaries
and last well into the night as they spread SE.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A return to a more dry pattern on Wednesday, with
rain chances increasing next weekend.

After the frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, high
pressure will build in as the front stalls to our south. Each
afternoon will have high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
with lows dipping into the mid 60s to lower 70s. These temperatures
are normal for this time of year. The front will also usher in drier
air, with PWs around 1.2 in Wednesday through Friday. This will
diminish rain chances, however a very isolated shower cannot be
ruled out each afternoon. Rain chances look to increase next weekend
as the front starts to retrograde back northward and a mid-level
disturbance approaches the region from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are favored to start the TAF period. In the immediate
near-term, there is the potential for isolated showers and storms
with a disturbance moving south out of VA. Most high-res model
solutions indicate the favored time period for any storms is between
03-09z. While the guidance is mixed on coverage and location,
clustering from the HREF would suggest the best potential would be
at RDU and RWI, with a secondary threat at GSO. Overall confidence
remains low, but did include a PROB30 for these terminals. With
little change in the airmass over the last 24 hours, the potential
for LIFR/IFR stratus and patchy fog is again favored Mon morning. A
broad suite of model guidance is mixed on stratus versus fog, but
given favorable conditions for crossover temperatures to be met or
exceeded in light winds, introduced the potential for IFR
visibilities. Any sub-VFR conditions should lift by 14-15z, with WNW
to N winds in the afternoon on Mon. Isolated to scattered convection
may develop along the sea-breeze and a surface boundary Mon
aftn/eve, most favored at FAY/RWI. For now, opted to leave this out
of the current TAF given low confidence on coverage.

Outlook: Areas of stratus or fog is again possible Tue morning. A
higher threat of scattered to numerous showers and storms are
expected Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Some
may be strong to severe. Mainly VFR conditions should prevail Wed
through Fri.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/LH
AVIATION...Kren