Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

452
FXUS62 KRAH 281939
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
338 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

1) Isolated convection possible along the NC/SC border this
afternoon. Dry and cooler Friday.

2) Scattered convection is again possible in the south
on Saturday, though overall coverage and amounts should be less than
in recent days. A mainly dry and cooler period will follow from
Sunday into Thursday. The one exception is Monday when a cold front
may bring isolated to scattered showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated convection possible along the NC/SC border
this afternoon. Dry and cooler Friday.

The cold front has passed south of central NC this afternoon, but
the drier air is still largely hung up across the northern
Piedmont/Coastal Plain. As such, some afternoon isolated convection
has popped largely around Sampson and Cumberland county.  Think
things continue to trend this way, with any afternoon convection
mostly remaining to our south and east. However, can`t rule out an
isolated shower or storm anywhere along the NC/SC border the next
few hours.

Cooler and drier air will wedge in through this evening and into
Friday. Highs on Friday will only reach the lower to mid 80s. Dew
points will mix out into the mid 50s Friday afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Scattered convection is again possible in the south
on Saturday, though overall coverage and amounts should be less than
in recent days. A mainly dry and cooler period will follow from
Sunday into Thursday. The one exception is Monday when a cold front
may bring isolated to scattered showers and storms.

The next chance for showers and storms comes from early Saturday
morning into Saturday afternoon (first in the SW) as the stalled
boundary to our south tries to lift back north. A remnant shear axis
from the shortwave currently over OK/KS will also move east,
inducing a weak surface wave along the front and resulting in mostly
cloudy to overcast skies through the day. The main chance for
convection would be limited to the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and
southern Coastal Plain, given that another low pressure system
tracking offshore New England will drop a backdoor cold front south
into central NC in the morning and afternoon, filtering in dry air
across the north. With PW values only near to slightly above normal
even in the south, along with limited instability and forcing,
overall coverage and rainfall amounts appear limited, and widespread
deep convection is not expected. Ensemble means have been trending
drier and are generally only a tenth to a quarter inch. Thus capped
POPs in the chance range, and WPC keeps any excessive rain threat to
our SW. High temperatures will be near normal, in the lower-to-mid-
80s. Saturday night will turn cool with lows in the lower-to-mid-50s
as dry air overspreads the entire region and any rain chances will
come to an end.

Mostly dry weather is expected from Sunday into Thursday under the
influence of NW flow aloft as we remain on the backside of longwave
troughing over the North Atlantic. Still can`t rule out isolated
showers or storms with shortwaves rotating around the trough, mainly
on Monday as a cold front moves through, and to a lesser extent on
Tuesday. However, moisture and instability look marginal at best.
Temperatures will turn cooler than normal on Sunday with highs in
the mid-to-upper-70s as a piece of the Canadian high moves overhead.
Temperatures will moderate slightly from Monday through Thursday as
the high shifts offshore, with highs in the upper-70s to lower-80s
and lows in the mid-to-upper-50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 119 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions will persist as drier and cooler air filters in post-
cold front. A few showers have developed just south of KFAY this
afternoon, but can`t fully rule out an isolated shower actually
impacting the terminal in the next few hours. Any isolated rain
chances should diminish this afternoon. Otherwise, expect some mid
to high level cloudiness to persist overnight.  Expect a few 15 to
18 kt gusts to persist the next several hours before diminishing
near sunset.

Looking beyond 18Z Friday, fair weather with VFR conditions are
expected on Friday and into Friday night. A stalled cold front to
the south will buckle north and create a chance of adverse aviation
conditions with scattered showers and storms on Saturday and
Saturday night with decreasing rain chances for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 28: KGSO: 70/2012 KRDU: 74/1914

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti/Blaes
CLIMATE...RAH