Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

579
FXUS62 KRAH 251914
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
205 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

* Mixed frozen precipitation (snow and sleet) will be more-prolonged
  and over a larger area over the Piedmont this morning, but
  gradually retreat nwwd with time; and this will at least initially
  delay ice accrual and risk of power outages.

* Storm total liquid equivalent precipitation amounts continue to
  trend lower, but overall winter storm impacts will still be
  significant.

* Forecast confidence continues to increase regarding rising
  temperatures to above freezing over all but probably the northwest
  through far northeast Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain tonight, and
  probably by late afternoon over the Advisory area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

1) Winter weather headlines --and expected Moderate to Major Winter
Storm Severity Impacts in the Warning area and Minor ones in the
Advisory area-- remain unchanged for the winter storm underway over
cntl NC.

2) An extended period of bitter cold temperatures into next weekend

3) A few periods where light snow could occur, but confidence
remains low

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Winter weather headlines --and expected Moderate to
Major Winter Storm Severity Impacts in the Warning area and Minor
ones in the Advisory area-- remain unchanged for the winter storm
underway over cntl NC.

Strong low-mid-level WAA will continue to progress from the
Carolinas through the Middle Atlantic today, most intense and
influential over the Carolinas at 925 mb, and accompanied by equally
intense Fgen at that level early today.

Classical, diabatically-enhanced cold air damming, related to a 1040
mb, Arctic high now centered along the NY/ON border, will continue
to mature over the Carolinas this morning, then weaken through
tonight. It will do so as a coastal low develops along a coastal
front off coast of the Carolinas early today and then deepens while
tracking along and offshore the Middle Atlantic and srn New England
coasts through tonight (a cold air damming erosion scenario), and as
the Arctic high weakens to around 1025 mb and retreats poleward
across Atlantic Canada by 12Z Mon. Nely flow, with an associated
feed of cold and dry advection, will gradually weaken, with
increasingly divergent flow in the CAD layer this afternoon-evening,
between the coastal low and an inland low forecast to develop and
track along an inverted trough west of the Appalachians.

The aforementioned strong low/mid-level WAA regime has caused
maximum warm nose temperatures at KGSO to increase from minus 2C at
18Z Sat, to near freezing at 00Z Sun, to most recently 5.2C between
816-810 mb at 06Z Sun. That warming was sufficient to completely
melt snowflakes falling into-through it and favor only super-cooled
water droplets devoid of ice nuclei, with a consequent changeover to
FZRA earlier this evening. However, top-down saturation into a
substantial cold nose, observed at 06Z at minus 14.5C and a few
degrees colder than forecast, yielded ice nucleation (and Bergeron
precipitation production) supportive of the redevelopment of ice
crystals/snow that have been reported by broadcast media to be a
combination of needles and small dendrites. These broadcast media
reports have been corroborated by numerous mPING ones, webcams, and
also surface observational data over most of the Piedmont. Although
those crystal habits will not accumulate as readily as larger and
less dense dendrites, the continuation of frozen precipitation will
delay the changeover to freezing rain and at least initially delay
power outage impacts. This frozen precipitation will likely
gradually retreat nwwd across the Piedmont, per forecast 0-1 km min
wet-bulb temperatures used as a proxy for minimum cold nose temps,
and whereby the recommended operational cut-off of minus 10C for the
presence of ice has aligned relatively well with observations. If
the cold nose maintains ice nucleation, even as cold nose
temperatures warm to minus 6-8C this afternoon, then additional
sleet and less complex crystal habits may further delay a changeover
to freezing rain and ultimately yield additional, light frozen
accumulation at the expense of freezing rain.

Otherwise and elsewhere, freezing rain will become increasingly-
predominant and continue the likelihood for significant icing, power
outages, and hazardous travel.

The demise of the CAD layer will also very likely allow the surface
wet bulb freezing line to retreat nwwd over all but probably the
northwest through far northeast Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain
tonight, and probably by late afternoon over the Advisory area. This
will both allow for melting of existing ice and cause a secondary,
frontal band of precipitation early tonight to fall as plain rain in
those areas. Travel conditions will consequently improve in those
areas overnight and especially with sunshine, and further warming
temperatures during the day Mon.


KEY MESSAGE 2...An extended period of bitter cold temperatures into
next weekend

An extended period of bitter cold temperatures will dominate much of
the upcoming week and into next weekend. Aloft, a consistent WNW
will lead to several bouts of Arctic air that will continue to build
southward into the region. The CAD boundary gets eroded early Mon
ahead of another strong cold front that moves through Mon aftn. This
will create gusty NW winds Mon aftn to early eve in the 20-30 mph
range, which could cause additional impacts of power outages due to
ice potential on trees and powerlines. An Extreme Cold Watch or Cold
Weather Advisory may likely be needed Mon night into Tue morning
with lows in the single digits to teens and apparent temps below
zero to the low single digits. Highs Mon to Wed only hover in the
low 30s to low 40s.

Another Arctic cold front moves through Wed-Wed night and this air
looks even colder than what we presently have, with highs only in
the upper 20s to mid 30s from north to south and lows in the single
digits to teens. This period may also warrant an Extreme Cold
Warning or Cold Weather Advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A few chances for light snow are possible Wed and
Sat, but confidence remains low

Within the WNW flow aloft and tied to the front Wed night, there is
the potential for some light snow into early Thu. As it stands now,
the trough has most of its energy to our northeast. However, there
are a good number of cluster solutions that indicate a deeper and
more westward trough, which would favor a better chance area-wide.
For now, the best chance is over the northern Coastal Plain.
Confidence is low at this point. Ensembles are also hinting at
another chance on Sat, this time with a possible northern and
southern stream wave. Confidence is quite low at this stage so for
right now the main messaging is for the bitter cold over the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions in fog and spotty light wintry
precipitation are noted across central NC this afternoon. Much of
central NC is in a lull of precipitation early this afternoon.
Temperatures are still below freezing across the area and where any
prediction is occurring the predominate precipitation type is light
freezing rain and freezing mist along with some sleet in the
northern Piedmont.

Another round of 3 to 5 hours of precipitation will push from west
to east across central NC late this afternoon and evening with light
to moderate intensity precipitation either in the form of rain
across southern and southeastern areas including KFAY and freezing
rain, freezing rain in the Triad including KINT and KGSO and a mix
of freezing rain and rain in the Triangle and northern Coastal Plain
including KRDU and KRWI. The precipitation should spread across KINT
and KGSO between 21 and 02Z, KRDU between 22 and 02Z and KRWI and
KFAY between 23 and 03Z. There is a limited threat of the a enhanced
wind gust with the line but given the stable airmass at the surface
this should be limited.

LLWS is developing across the area this afternoon and will continue
into the evening before fading around 06Z. Lingering moisture may
produce areas of fog, -DZ and -FZDZ at all TAF sites for a few hours
later tonight. Winds will shift to northwest toward daybreak and
then become gusty up to 16 or 18 kts during Monday morning. Ceiling
restrictions will given way to VFR conditions from west to east from
around daybreak to mid morning.

Outlook: Generally fair but cold conditions are expected during the
outlook period. A system will move across the area on Thursday and
could bring some scattered snow showers but confidence is low and
any adverse aviation impact appears limited. -Blaes
&&

.CLIMATE...


Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 25: KGSO: 23/1940 KRDU: 28/2013

January 29: KRDU: 27/2014


Record Low Temperatures:

January 27: KRDU: 8/1940 KFAY: 11/1940

January 30: KGSO: 4/1966 KRDU: 7/2014

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for NCZ007-021>024-
038-039.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for NCZ008>011-
025>028-040>043-073>077-083>086.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for NCZ078-088-
089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/Kren
AVIATION...Blaes