Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

654
FXUS62 KRAH 111130
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 AM Wednesday...

1) Another above normal day today, followed by a mostly dry cold
frontal passage on Thursday

1) The chilliest air of the season will arrive and support the first
widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend, followed by continued
below average temperatures and dry conditions that will persist
through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Another above normal day today, followed by a
mostly dry cold frontal passage on Thursday

Ahead of Thursday`s cold frontal passage, this afternoon should be
another above normal day as pre-frontal southerly winds usher warm
air into the region. Maximum temperatures this afternoon look to be
similar to Tuesday`s, with highs expected in the lower 70s north, to
the mid/upper 70s south.

The cold front appears to move through the region Thursday afternoon
into the evening. The chance for pre-frontal showers continues to
trend down, with most models suggesting that most of the rain will
dry up as the front crosses the mountains. Some very light rain may
still be possible early Thursday morning ahead of the front, mainly
in the Triad, and Thursday afternoon in the north. The REFS is
suggesting that only up to trace amounts of rain are likely, with a
lesser chance of 0.01-0.02 inches in a few locations.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The chilliest air of the season will arrive and
support the first widespread frost/freeze risk this weekend,
followed by continued below average temperatures and dry conditions
that will persist through most of next week.

A mid/upr-level cyclone will develop along the srn ON/QC border and
lwr Great Lakes by Fri, then progress slowly across and offshore the
Northeast and Atlantic Canada through the weekend, during which time
a series of shortwave perturbations will progress through the
associated cyclonic flow across and offshore the Middle Atlantic.

At the surface, a cold front trailing a deepening/redeveloping
clipper low will have moved across cntl NC on Thu, with following
cold and dry air advection that will initiate a step down to below
average temperatures for Friday. A following, reinforcing cold front
will slow as it encounters the srn Appalachians Thu night-early Fri,
then move across cntl NC later Fri-early Fri night. High pressure
will follow and build from central Canada to the Middle Atlantic
this weekend through early next week, where it will remain while
gradually weakening/modifying through most of next week.

As temperatures aloft cool beneath the aforementioned cyclone and
shortwave perturbations, a shallow layer of scant instability at the
top of adeeply-mixed boundary layer may accompany the reinforcing
cold front across cntl NC late Fri-early Fri night. Point forecast
soundings indicate that buoyancy will coincide with a similarly
shallow, 3-4 thousand ft deep saturated layer centered around 800 mb
that will extend to near minus 8-10C, such that mixed phase clouds
and precipitation production may result. While the aforementioned
deeply-mixed boundary layer will cause most of that precipitation to
sublimate/evaporate to virga, a few sprinkles will be possible
especially over the ne Piedmont and nrn-cntl Coastal Plain in the
several hours centered around sunset Fri.

That reinforcing front will otherwise usher even chillier and drier
air across cntl NC for the weekend. Point forecast soundings
continue to depict relatively steep low-level lapse rates in CAA
behind it Fri night, which may include a potential for gustiness
between 20-30 kts as a surge of nwly momentum in the residual mixed
layer arrives during the evening. While related mixing should
gradually weaken through Sat morning, it will hinder further
cooling potential via radiative processes. As such, the coldest
temperatures are expected when the CAA wanes and the MSL pressure
gradient relaxes by Sun and Mon morning, when sub-freezing
temperatures appear likely and a hard freeze will be possible
especially in outlying/rural Piedmont locations.

While dewpoints and relative humidity values have been adjusted
lower than both the previous forecast and the latest NBM (with its
systematic high bias), forecast minimum RH for both Fri and Sat are
mostly between 30-40%. Although those values may continue to trend
lower and nearer IFD criteria (25-30%), the greater mitigating
parameters for increased fire danger will be wind/gusts, given only
teens kts momentum transfer indicated in the mixed layer both days,
and cool temperatures in the 50s.

While some moderation will result as the high gradually weakens and
airmass modifies through most of next week, its continued presence
and influence will yield continued below average temperatures and
multiple, consecutive mornings of frost/freeze conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are generally expected over the 24 hour TAF period. A
few locations have had brief restrictions of shallow patchy fog this
morning, however any remaining restrictions should soon dissipate.
Otherwise, just some upper level clouds are expected through the
day. Winds this morning could be variable for a few hours before
taking a more southerly to southwesterly component, but should be
overall light.

Outlook: VFR conditions should mainly prevail through the weekend.
There is a low chance of rain Thursday and Friday, but it appears to
only be light, with little to no restrictions expected. Gusty winds
will still be possible Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LH/MWS
AVIATION...LH