Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

834
FXUS62 KRAH 080444
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1245 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  The forecast movement of Isaias has accelerated which should
   result in an earlier arrival of widespread rain on Saturday night
   into early Sunday with more showery weather on Sunday with a few
   storms.

*  Storm total rainfall amounts have increased and will generally
   range from 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts across the
   Coastal Plain and across the western Piedmont.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

1) Dry weather with up and down temperatures expected through
Friday.

2) The likelihood of unsettled weather and significant rain
associated with Isaias with periods of rain and possible
thunderstorms continues to increase for late Saturday and especially
Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather with up and down temperatures
expected through Friday.

Morning low level thickness values increase nearly 20m over a 24-
hour period ending at 12Z Thursday. This moderating air mass ahead
of an approaching cold front will result in warm weather on Thursday
with highs mainly in the mid 80s which is about 6 to 12 degrees
above average.

A moisture starved cold front moves through the area on Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night marking the leading edge of a cooler
and drier air mass that moves into the region late Thursday night
and on Friday. Highs on Friday will be 8 to 10 degrees cooler than
on Thursday and range in the mid and upper 70s which is about 0 to
4 degrees above average.


KEY MESSAGE 2...The likelihood of unsettled weather and significant
rain associated with Isaias with periods of rain and possible
thunderstorms continues to increase for late Saturday and especially
Saturday night into Sunday.

Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to quickly strengthen into a
hurricane on Thursday, move ashore on the northern Gulf Coast on
Friday night near MS/AL/western FL with the circulation center
tracking north into the western TN Valley on Saturday night into
Sunday. Meanwhile a cooler and drier air mass will invade the
Carolinas on Friday into Saturday with highs in the 70s and
dewpoints on Friday into at least the first part of Saturday mainly
in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A coastal front will develop on the
western periphery of this developing CAD airmass over the interior
and try to advance inland on Saturday and then surge inland on
Sunday.

The timing of rainfall is problematic, especially with the onset
time. While some spotty rain and showers are even possible late
Friday night into early Saturday, mainly across the southern and
southeastern areas, more general/areawide rainfall chances will
increase from south to north on Saturday and especially Saturday
night. The main surge of widespread rain driven by isentropic lift
in the 295 to 305K layer lifts north across the area from 6pm
Saturday to 9am Sunday. A bit of a lull is expected early Sunday
followed by a north-south band or two of showers and possible storms
that move east across the area. These bands will provide the only
real severe weather potential if enough instability can materialize
and work with a moderate to high shear environment. Timing and other
details will need to be resolved but this will be in the family of a
low end high shear low CAPE environment. Scattered showers, likely
of the low impact variety, are likely to continue into the first
part of Sunday night before quickly ending with improving conditions
from west to east by Monday morning.

Average forecast rainfall amounts from WPC have been adjusted upward
across central NC and should range between 1 and 2 inches with
locally higher amounts across southeastern areas where instability
will be the greatest and perhaps western areas where the isentropic
lift may be the strongest. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Thursday...

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the 24-hour period. The one exception is the potential for
shallow ground fog at a few sites, namely INT/RWI and possibly FAY.
The last few runs of some high-res guidance, namely the
HRRR/RRFS/REFS, suggest this potential. Crossover temperatures are
somewhat favorable near the middle 50s at INT, but low temperatures
may just be shy of crossover. However, given clear skies, opted to
introduce a brief MVFR restriction into Thu morning. We kept the
same brief restriction at RWI based on persistence, though crossover
temperatures may be somewhat less favorable as earlier shifts noted.
Light winds will become west to northwest Thu afternoon at 5-8 kt. A
few brief gusts to 15 kt are possible over the Triad terminals.

Outlook: Rain and flight restrictions, and cold air damming, are
likely to develop across cntl NC late Sat into Sun. Although there
remains timing/duration uncertainty of those impacts, the heaviest
rain will probably taper off to lighter rain/mist/drizzle over the
Piedmont on Sunday, where cold air damming will be most likely to
continue. The CAD regime may be eroded by the passage of a
warm/wedge front over parts of especially sern NC, including near
FAY, where both a lifting/scattering to VFR and development of
convective precipitation will be possible Sunday afternoon. Flight
restrictions in CAD may remain over the Piedmont through Mon morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes
AVIATION...Kren/MWS