Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

224
FXUS62 KRAH 052352
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
652 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Slight increase to expected rainfall amounts with a greater area
  of 0.5" or more, but most locations will likely still receive less
  than 0.75" of rain. Localized swaths of 1 to 2.5" of rain remains
  possible.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

1) Shallow and isolated convection brings negligible rain amounts
this afternoon, with shower/storm chances and coverage increasing
tonight.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday within a pre-
frontal moist axis over central NC, with a risk of a few severe
storms in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain midday through afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Shallow and isolated  convection brings negligible
rain amounts this afternoon, with shower and storm chances and
coverage increasing tonight.

Mid-lvl water vapor imagery shows a void in synoptic forcing over
the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as a pocket of dry air continues
to overspread the area. Surface dew points in the mid-60s is fueling
around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 50-100 of which in the lowest 3 km, and
supporting isolated, infrequent, low-topped showers producing mostly
sprinkles. These showers will likely continue for the next several
hours before collapsing with the loss of diurnal heating and cooling
boundary layer takes over.

Coverage is expected to increase across the west this evening and
especially overnight into Fri morning. This will be driven by strong
upper divergence overspreading the southern Appalachians and
Carolinas as an open wave over the Southern Plains merges with a
strong northern stream disturbance diving south through the Upper
Great Lakes and reaching the OH and TN Valley`s by 12z Fri. Hi-res
guidance continues to highlight mostly consolidated waves of mostly
light showers rippling northeast from Upstate and Midlands of SC
into the NC Piedmont overnight. Isolated deeper cells appear
possible with the increasing mid/upper-lvl support and could result
in a few rumbles of thunder overnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday
within a pre-frontal moist axis over central NC, with a risk of a
few severe storms in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain midday through
afternoon.

Coverage and intensity is expected to further increase within the
band of showers ongoing Fri morning as greater synoptic forcing
overspread central portions of the forecast area. Widespread cloud
cover Fri morning will greatly limit the release of surface-based
instability and ongoing showers will likely be elevated in nature
through a majority of the morning hours.

Cloud cover erosion east of the band of moderate showers and
isolated thunder should allow for surface temperatures to rise into
the mid/upper 70s with dew points in the mid/upper 60s to support
500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early afternoon. Latest guidance
continues to highlight the I-95 corridor eastward into eastern NC as
the most likely area to realize this instability and support an area
of deeper, surface-based convection. Enhanced southwesterly of 35-45
kts, gradual veering wind profile and increasing winds with height
will support gradually curved hodographs and drive storm
organization into organized multicells and perhaps transient
supercells (most probable in areas of line breaks in a bookend
vortex of a bowing segment).

Localized damaging wind gusts will be possible within the strongest
organized storms, but a brief short-track tornado can`t be ruled out
from transient supercells within line breaks, although the tornado
threat remains low without any localized storm interactions
modifying the background environment since 0-1 SRH should mostly
range from 50-100 m2/s2. Most probable timing for severe weather
will be from 11 AM until around 5 PM along and east of the I-95
corridor and perhaps as far west as Wake County.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 PM Thursday...

Currently, a few light showers are moving through the Triad.
Coverage and frequency of showers will increase over the rest of the
evening and overnight. Mostly light rain is expected tonight,
however a few cells may produce moderate rain with a non-zero chance
of a lightning strike or two. Early Friday morning (~10Z), coverage
of moderate to heavy rain showers will increase while moving
eastward through the region. As we get into the afternoon,
thunderstorm chances will increase, bringing a risk of low
visibilities, gusty winds, and lightning.

In terms of ceilings, MVFR to IFR and potentially LIFR low stratus
is likely to start overspreading the region by about 6Z. These
ceilings look to prevail until after sunrise. As the rain moves
through the region ahead of the front, MVFR ceilings look to prevail
for much of the morning and into the afternoon, especially in the
eastern terminals.

Outlook: Additional fog may be possible Friday night/Saturday
morning, especially in the Coastal Plain. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are likely to prevail beyond the risk for continued late-night/early-
morning fog.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

November 5:
KGSO: 82/1914
KRDU: 85/2003
KFAY: 86/2003

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5:
KGSO: 65/2003
KRDU: 66/1977
KFAY: 67/2003

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...LH/AS