Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

726
FXUS62 KRAH 240556
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* In Thursday`s drought update, conditions have worsened to an
  Extreme Drought over much of north-central NC, with Severe Drought
  elsewhere in central NC.

* Confidence is increasing that a backdoor front early Sun will
  bring noticeably cooler air especially into our northern areas by
  Sun afternoon, lasting into Mon.

* Rain chances for late Mon night through Tue are looking less clear.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 155 AM Friday...

1) Much above normal temperatures will persist through Saturday.
Cooler air arrives Sun.

2) High chances for measurable rain late Sat through Sun morning,
but amounts are unlikely to significantly improve our worsening
drought. By Tue, a pattern shift will allow for more typical diurnal
scattered showers and storms through the middle and end of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 155 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Much above normal temperatures will persist through
Saturday. Cooler air arrives Sun.

The combination of surface high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas
extending over the Southeast coast and an 850 mb anticyclone
centered near SAV will continue to bring above-normal low level
thicknesses to the Carolinas today through Sat, up to 25-30 m above
normal. We`ll maintain a weak NW steering flow aloft, and with a
lack of moisture influx through the low and mid levels, any clouds
will be largely limited to sct to briefly bkn high-base cu this
afternoon. This high insolation with elevated thicknesses favors
highs around 10-15 degrees above normal today, in the mid 80s to
around 90. Given that today will be our third consecutive day of
atypically warm temperatures, our Heat Risk is forecast to be a
Level 2-of-4/Moderate for portions of central NC, including from the
Triangle area and N Sandhills into the Coastal Plain, largely due to
the high heat impact levels during the day, from late morning
through the afternoon when isolation will be strongest. This Level 2
indicates that this heat may begin to affect anyone without adequate
cooling or hydration. Those who must work or exert in direct
sunshine at the hottest part of the day should be extra cautious,
stay well hydrated, and take cooling breaks in the shade. By Sat,
thicknesses will remain around 25 m above normal, but the
approaching upper level shortwave trough and corresponding surface
low from the NW is likely to bring enough increasing high and mid
clouds in the afternoon to help curb the heat impacts. By Sun, a
backdoor front expected to drop through the area is expected to
bring in a cooler air mass from the north, resulting in highs that
will be 10-20 degrees cooler than Sat, coolest N.


KEY MESSAGE 2... High chances for measurable rain late Sat through
Sun morning, but amounts are unlikely to significantly improve our
worsening drought. By Tue, a pattern shift will allow for more
typical diurnal scattered showers and storms through the middle and
end of next week.

A weak mid level shortwave trough will eject from the large closed
low centered over S Saskatchewan today, crossing the N Great Lakes
region through tonight, undercutting an omega block over E Hudson
Bay and N Quebec. This wave will then track slowly SE through the
central Appalachians Sat and amplify over the Northeast states and
Mid Atlantic region Sat night/Sun as it begins to get absorbed into
another large gyre over the NW Atlantic. This wave will be
accompanied by a surface low tracking along a frontal zone from
lower MI across NE OH through tonight, before a new low forms over
WV/VA early Sat and shifts over and off the VA Tidewater late Sat
into Sat night. Moisture with these features is not terribly deep or
plentiful, confined through the mid and lower levels as moisture
transport will be modest. But PWs in the 125-150% of normal range
and the incoming DPVA and low level mass convergence along and S of
the surface low do support a window of high pops, starting mid
afternoon Sat in our W then spreading E through Sat night before
exiting from our SE Sun afternoon. Confidence is high that everyone
should see at least a tenth of an inch, and the 75th percentile
total rainfall is right around a half inch, all suggesting that the
most likely amounts will be around a quarter to half inch. This rain
will be very welcome, but it is not expected to be sufficient to put
much of a dent into the ongoing and worsening drought. Regarding
thunder chances, forecast MUCAPE values are pretty meager, generally
under 250 J/kg, albeit with decent deep layer bulk shear around 30
kts. Expect any storms to be scattered and disorganized, with a low
chance of strong storms.

The aforementioned low will shift off the Mid Atlantic coast Sun,
allowing the strengthening trailing backdoor cold front to push
southward through NC, propelled by increasing NNE flow around the
exiting low. The cooler air mass wedging in from the NNE is likely
to bring a fairly sharp cooldown by Sun evening, although subtle
timing differences remain, resulting in a lower confidence in the
specifics of Sun highs. The most likely highs Sun are in the 60s N
and 70s S, but with timing differences, highs may still be able to
reach the 70s in the N.

Precip chances get murky beyond Mon, as we trend to a faster mid
level flow with flat ridging from NW Mexico across the S Plains/Mid
South/Southeast by mid week, followed by further flattening to near
zonal flow across the southern half of the CONUS. But the greater
potential tapping of Gulf moisture in the low levels and faster mid
and upper flow does suggest a trend toward more typical spring or
early summer weather with nearly daily scattered showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Friday...

VFR conditions are likely to persist over the next 24 hours, with
high confidence. Only sct to briefly bkn high-base cu at 8-10kft AGL
are expected, mainly this afternoon, but otherwise skies will remain
fair to clear. Surface winds will be light, under 8 kt, except 8-14
kts from the W or SW 13z-23z, with isolated/infrequent gusts up to
18-22 kt, mainly at FAY.

Looking beyond 06z Sat, VFR conditions should dominate through midday
Sat. The chance for sub-VFR conditions will increase as showers and
a few storms sweep through the area from late Sat afternoon through
Sun morning. Another round of showers and sctd storms with possible
sub-VFR conditions will occur late Mon night through Tue evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...Hartfield