Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

460
FXUS62 KRAH 211730
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Increased Fire Danger will probably result throughout cntl NC on
  Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

1) Increased Fire Danger will probably result throughout cntl NC on
Wednesday.

2) Temperatures will be above normal through Saturday, then near
normal into early next week. Generally dry through Friday night,
with the next chance of rain over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased Fire Danger will probably result
throughout cntl NC on Wednesday.

A shortwave trough in nwly flow aloft will progress from the nrn
Plains this morning to the Middle Atlantic and offshore Wed and
early Wed night. At the surface, an accompanying frontal wave will
track across and offshore the Middle Atlantic late Wed and Wed
night, with a trailing, outflow re-inforced frontal zone that will
move across the cntl and srn Virginias Wed and into the ne Piedmont
and nrn Coastal Plain of NC by early Wed night. While a related band
of altocumulus may produce a few very light showers across nrn zones
during the late afternoon and evening, a deeply-mixed and dry
boundary and sub-cloud layer will favor mostly virga - like on Mon.
It will otherwise be unseasonably warm (low-mid 80s F temps), very
dry (upr teens to 25% RH), and breezy (wswly 10-20 mph with gusts in
the 20s mph) ahead of the front and across cntl NC Wed. Those
meteorological conditions will be supportive of Increased Fire
Danger, which has already been preliminarily coordinated with NCFS
and which will be further coordinated and probably finalized later
today.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will be above normal through Saturday,
then near normal into early next week. Generally dry through Friday
night, with the next chance of rain over the weekend.

Aloft, the ridge will move slowly ewd to over the East Coast where
it will flatten out over the weekend as a s/w disturbance moves ewd
across the region. At the surface, a backdoor cold front may
approach from the northeast Fri/Fri night, but should stay northeast
of the area as a low tracks across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic.
As the low shifts offshore over the weekend, the front may sink swd
into the area, with cool nely flow in its wake. However, there are
some differences amongst the available guidance with the fropa
timing and strength of the high ridging in behind it that contribute
to the forecast uncertainty for Saturday onward. Another low
pressure system may develop to the west early next week, but there
is too much uncertainty to say with any confidence how long the
ridge will hold and when/if the system will make it into the area.
The weather should largely remain dry through Friday night. There is
still a chance for some rain over the weekend with the s/w passage,
but timing and amounts remain uncertain. There could be another
chance for rain Mon night/Tue depending how the next system evolves.
Above normal temperatures expected through Saturday, with a return
to near normal on Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. This
afternoon, expect light surface winds with generally southerly winds
through the overnight period. A 30-35 kt southwesterly low level jet
looks to move just to our north tonight, which could allow for brief
periods of light LLWS tonight in the north. Otherwise, tomorrow
afternoon expect southwesterly winds to gust to around 18-24kts
starting shortly after sunrise.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are generally expected to
persist through the work week. Virga and/or very light rain will be
possible around and north of RWI tomorrow afternoon with a cold
front, but no restrictions are expected. The next best chance for
rain and associated restrictions returns on Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/KCP
AVIATION...LH