Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

204
FXUS62 KRAH 071033
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
635 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Greater confidence in scattered showers and storms across the west
  and south Mon afternoon/evening.

* Slightly cooler temps expected in the far NE Tue.

* Continued increasing confidence in a return to dangerous heat
  by mid to late week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

1) Continued hot through Mon. After a brief break in the heat Tue,
another round of dangerous heat will return starting Wed and peaking
Thu/Fri.

2) Daily diurnal convection is possible Mon through much of the
week, but overall coverage is likely to be limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued hot through Mon. After a brief break in
the heat Tue, another round of dangerous heat will return starting
Wed and peaking Thu/Fri.

The overall pattern of strong ridging from the surface up through
the mid levels over and just off the Southeast coast will persist
into Mon, meaning a continuation of atypically hot temperatures. The
low level anticyclone over E GA/S SC is still largely limiting the
low level moisture return, so while surface dewpoints are slowly
creeping up, the lack of moisture through the low and mid levels
(including below-normal PW) and modest lapse rates aloft are curbing
convection and keeping cloud cover restricted to just scattered flat
high-base cu and bouts of thin convective debris mid and high clouds
from the W and NW, while the downslope westerly component aloft
contributes to compressional warming. The 850 mb temp on the 00z/7th
GSO sounding remains near the 90th percentile for this date, with
little change into Mon, and low level thicknesses are expected to
stay 10-15 m above normal, supporting a persistence of this
anomalous heat through Mon. Given the consecutive days of high heat,
people are urged to use great caution by staying in shade or AC as
much as possible and limiting time in direct sun.

A strong mid level shortwave trough diving SE through the Northeast
and northern Mid Atlantic late today through early Mon will propel a
backdoor front NNE-to-SSW into central NC, although we`re unlikely
to see a substantial drop in thicknesses until late in the day, and
even then the relative "cooling" will be most noticeable only in the
far NE during Mon. The front is expected to settle in and extend
from NW to SE across central NC, prompting greater cloud cover and a
dip in thicknesses as (comparatively) cool high pressure builds in
post-front from the Northeast/N Mid-Atlantic coast to the SW. Thus,
with the clouds and shot of cooler (or simply less hot) air, highs
Tue should be near or just below normal, lowest NE. But as this high
shifts off the Carolina coast toward Bermuda on Wed, deep ridging
will build anew over the interior Southeast, and confidence is
fairly high that temperatures will rebound back to well above
normal. Thicknesses are projected to rebound to 10-15 m above normal
by Thu/Fri, supporting highs returning to the mid and perhaps upper
90s over much of the area. Experimental probabilistic Heat Risk
shows a 50-80+% chance of reaching Major levels over portions of the
Piedmont Thu through Sat, suggesting significant impacts for all
populations without adequate cooling or hydration. It should be
noted, however, that if scattered afternoon and evening convection
becomes more widespread than expected with greater cloud cover, a
few degrees could be shaved off of these late-week temps.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Daily diurnal convection is possible Mon through
much of the week, but overall coverage is likely to be limited.

A few showers and isolated storms remain possible for a few hours
this evening in our far NE as the shortwave trough swings by to our
NE, but overall the limited moisture and poor lapse rates aloft will
keep coverage low, with diminishing convection after sunset. By Mon,
we`re fairly confident in at least scattered showers and storms
along and just SW of the front as it settles into the area Mon
afternoon, based on the overall pattern (low level confluence amidst
improving PW to above normal) and good agreement on recent CAMs
showing late-day convection from the W/S Piedmont across the
Sandhills and S Coastal Plain, lasting into the early evening. After
the front weakens and shifts to our E with the surface high settling
toward Bermuda, we`ll get back into a pattern of warm surface temps
and destabilization with deep mixing each day, with PW remaining a
bit above normal (in contrast to this weekend), especially over the
W CWA, in response to weak/baggy mid level trough shifting across
the Great Lakes/OH Valley across and off the coast of the Northeast
and Mid Atlantic Tue through Thu. The NBM shows a 20-30% chance of
measurable precip across the W and S Tue-Thu, with slightly better
chances areawide by Fri. But as is characteristic of typical
summertime convection, we are likely to see patches of higher totals
with many areas not seeing any rain at all, resulting in minimal
impact on our ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected over central NC terminals over the next
24 hours. High pressure sitting offshore and extending west into the
Southeast states will continue to bring warm and dry conditions
today, although mid/high clouds will steadily increase. As the high
gives way to a backdoor front moving in from the NNE late this
evening into tonight, an uptick in clouds is expected over the NE
late in this TAF period mainly affecting RDU/RWI, but VFR conditions
should still hold. There is also a small chance for a stray shower
or storm near RDU/RWI 00z-06z this evening, but most activity will
be isolated and hold to the north of these sites. Surface winds will
be from the SW or WSW, except mostly from the WNW at INT/GSO during
today. Speeds will be generally under 10 kts except 10-15 kts during
the daytime hours.

Looking beyond 12z Mon, as the backdoor cold front settles into the
area from the NNE through Mon, there will be a few more clouds at
RDU/RWI, but overall the central NC terminals will stay VFR through
at least early Mon afternoon. Scattered showers and storms, which
may contain brief sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds, are possible
Mon from mid afternoon through mid evening, with the best chance
from INT/GSO southeast through FAY, but confidence in the details is
low. There is a good chance for sub-VFR cigs Mon night through the
first half of Tue across the W and SW including INT/GSO. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are favored, and typical daytime scattered
showers/storms will remain possible through Thu.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 7: KRDU: 100/2008   KFAY: 99/2008

June 8: KFAY: 101/2008

June 10: KFAY: 99/2008

June 11: KGSO: 98/1914   KRDU: 100/1914   KFAY: 102/1926

June 12: KRDU: 98/2002   KFAY: 99/1926

June 13: KRDU: 100/2002   KFAY: 99/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 7: KGSO: 73/2008   KRDU: 74/2008   KFAY: 75/2008

June 8: KGSO: 73/2008   KRDU: 75/1899   KFAY: 74/2008

June 9: KGSO: 72/2020

June 11: KGSO: 74/2008   KRDU: 74/2008   KFAY: 77/1981

June 12: KGSO: 72/1998   KRDU: 75/1986   KFAY: 76/2016

June 13: KGSO: 73/2015   KRDU: 75/2025   KFAY: 77/1998

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE..RAH