Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

220
FXUS62 KRAH 301900
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* The chance of any meaningful/impactful rain through next week
  appears low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Friday...

1) More-seasonable temperatures return to central NC this weekend
behind a backdoor cold front.

2) While the next best chance of rain will be mid to late next week,
forecast confidence in specific timing and amounts --if any of
consequence/benefit of the latter-- is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... More-seasonable temperatures return to central NC
this weekend behind a backdoor cold front.

A cold front is presently located across the lower OH valley and Mid-
Atlantic region. Much of the model guidance depicts this front
moving through in backdoor fashion overnight tonight and early
Saturday, with 1034-mb cool surface high pressure extending down
into the region through early next week. Ahead of the front, today
will see our warmest day of the next seven days, with most locations
in the lower 80s this afternoon. These highs should stay below
records.

As the front moves through, some gusts out of the northeast will be
favored Saturday morning and early afternoon, between 15-20 mph,
diminishing by sunset. The main influence from the front will be
more-seasonable temperatures in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees.


KEY MESSAGE 2... While the next best chance of rain will be mid to
late next week, forecast confidence in specific timing and amounts --
if any of consequence/benefit of the latter-- is low.

"When in drought, leave it out," best summarizes this forecaster`s
skepticism in prospects of meaningful rain next week.

There remains considerable model spread and forecast uncertainty
surrounding at least a couple of synoptic troughs in slowly
progressive flow aloft across NOAM next week, during which time a
persistent, blocking ridge over Europe may further slow the flow
upstream across the N. Atlantic and US into next weekend. Within
that slowly progressive to blocking pattern, NWP guidance indicate a
tendency for the troughs to split across the lower mid-latitudes,
which casts doubt in the degree of large-scale forcing for ascent
that will be available over cntl NC.

The first of those slowly progressive troughs will likely be an
aggregate of a couple of mid and upr-level perturbations now evident
in GOES-E data along the Rio Grande Valley and another over srn CA,
as they progress ewd and across and just offshore the South Atlantic
coast by early next week. 12Z guidance has trended less amplified
with this trough relative to previous forecast cycles. Another and
initially more-amplified trough will follow and consist of a
positive tilt trough now extending swwd from a vigorous, cold-core
cyclone off the Pacific Northwest coast through multiple Pacific
perturbations to near and northeast of HI. That trough appears
increasingly-likely to split as it progresses into the ern US - not
particularly favorable for lift and precipitation in cntl NC. 12Z
guidance has trended a little quicker and more amplified in another
trough forecast to progress across the CONUS late next week, which
may offer another opportunity for lift across NC, but forecast
confidence is even lower at that time range.

At the surface, the most dominant and highest predictability feature
will be an area of high pressure that will extend across the Middle
Atlantic, while weakening, through mid-week. With the aforementioned
trend in 12Z guidance of a much less amplified trough aloft off the
South Atlantic coast early next week, there has been a similar trend
toward weaker surface low pressure there. The frontal zone
accompanying the splitting trough mid to late week is slower and
weaker in 12Z guidance, with weaker convergence/lift and preceding
moisture transport across cntl NC.

The most predictable aspect of the sensible weather next week will
be moderating and above average temperatures. While the
probabilities for rain will increase by mid to late week, they are
subject to the low confidence pattern of slowly progressive and
splitting troughs that frankly do not appear to offer much hope of
impactful rain at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

October 30:
KGSO: 84/2016
KRDU: 86/1996
KFAY: 87/1950

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 112 PM Friday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF
period. Mid and high clouds will gradually increase Saturday. North
to northwest winds this afternoon will shift around to be from the
northeast Saturday morning through afternoon behind a backdoor cold
front. Behind the front early Saturday, winds will increase just
above the surface. This could lead to some marginal LLWS, but
currently the magnitude looks to stay below criteria. Some gusts out
of the NE Saturday morning could range from 15-18 kt, most favored
at the eastern sites.

Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through the middle of next
week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/MWS
AVIATION...Kren