Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

511
FXUS62 KRAH 291738
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1235 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will sweep across the state this afternoon. High
pressure building in behind the front will bring dry weather through
early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM Monday...

* Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 pm for the Piedmont and
  western Sandhills

* Gusty winds 30-35 mph, infrequent 40 mph into the mid-late evening
  hours

Satellite and surface observations currently place the strong cold
just east of the Triad as of 12pm. The cold front will continue to
advance eastward, reaching the coast by early evening. Ahead and
behind the front, we are still expecting a period of gusty winds
into the mid to late evening hours. Gusts ahead of the front are
peaking in the middle 30s mph, with post-frontal gusts in TN and
western NC in the 40 to 45 mph range. These gust of 30-35,
infrequent to 40 mph, will pick up post-frontal with a combination
of strong CAA and deep BL mixing. Temperatures may rise a few more
degrees ahead of the front over the Coastal Plain to some lower 70s,
but once the front passes, temperatures will crash into the 40s
later today and fall into the mid to upper 20s overnight. Wind gusts
should weaken by the late evening and overnight hours, though
occasional gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range are still possible as
wind chills dip into the teens.

A band of light rain has developed ahead of the front over the
central and northeast Piedmont and will advance east into the
Coastal Plain this afternoon before exiting toward the coast by late
afternoon. Rainfall amounts should generally be under a tenth of an
inch.

The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 pm for the Piedmont
and western Sandhills for combined gusty winds and lower humidity. A
further examination this morning led us to believe that perhaps
conditions may not fully meet Red Flag criteria, but it is certainly
warranted if dewpoints can drop faster than expected. The dry air
advection looks to be a tad slower, resulting in overall higher RH
than anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM Monday...

* Marginal fire concerns due to 15-25 mph gusts and low humidity

* Much colder temperatures

Much colder temperatures will be in place Tue, which will feel like
quite the change from the mild holiday weather. Cold high pressure
over the Southern Plains will migrate slowly into the lower MS
valley region. A tight pressure gradient will remain in place with
deep low pressure over eastern Quebec. Highs are expected to be some
8-12 degrees below seasonal normals in the upper 30s to low 40s in
the far to the middle 40s in the south.

Northwest wind gusts will certainly not be as strong as Mon but
range in the 15 to 25 mph range, highest in the eastern Piedmont and
Coastal Plain. Relative humidity values will be in the 25 to 30
percent range, perhaps lower 20s in the southern Piedmont. We
reached out to the NCFS about a possible fire danger statement on
Tue given these parameters. Currently, conditions do not appear to
be as worrisome but we plan to reassess later tonight and with the
NCFS on fuels and expected conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Monday...

* Dry weather for New Year`s Eve/New Year`s Day

* Temperatures returning to near normal values Wednesday through
  early next week

* Next opportunity for precip comes late Friday into Saturday

Broad northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through late week. While
a series of weak upper level disturbances will pass by to our north
across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, we should only see subtle
increases in cloud cover from time to time with no significant
weather impacts or precip chances. Temps Wednesday through Friday
will generally range from the low to mid 50s for highs, with lows in
the mid 30s. The forecast for New Year`s Eve should see partly
cloudy skies, dry weather, and temps in the mid to upper 30s at
midnight.

Meanwhile, a slow moving upper low off the southern California coast
will eject a shortwave through TX into the lower MS valley on
Friday. Weak height falls ahead of the trough should allow for the
development of light rain across the area late Friday night, with
higher precip chances likely on Saturday coincident with arrival of
the shortwave itself. There is general agreement among today`s
00Z/12Z ensemble clusters showing precip arriving during this time
and the precip forecast is one of relatively high confidence.
However the exact track of the associated surface low is still up
for debate which will have impacts on the temperature forecast.
Approx 2/3rds of model solutions take the surface low to our north
yielding cooler temperatures across the area given northerly flow,
while the remaining 1/3 of ensemble depictions take the low through
VA. Will hold steady with near (or slightly below normal) temps on
Saturday but if the low tracks along the coast, Saturday`s highs may
need to be lowered a bit. Regardless of how Saturday plays out, it
appears temps should be within a few degrees of normal Sunday into
Monday as conditions dry out and mid level height rises spread
eastward. Highs in the mid 50s with lows in the mid 30s is well
supported by today`s ensemble solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: The primary concern through the TAF period will
be the wind. As a strong cold front comes through, gusts will
increase. As of 12pm, observed wind gusts to the west of the front
have not been quite as high as forecast by the models, but model
soundings remain insistent that all sites should see at least 30 kt
winds out of the west-northwest as the front moves through, if not
approaching 35-40 kt. Did not have enough confidence to go higher
than 30 kt in the official forecast, however. Have gone with
prevailing MVFR to start the period at RWI, and can`t rule out an
isolated MVFR ceiling at RDU/RWI at the beginning of the period. Any
rain along the front has been relatively light and do not expect
that any showers should bring a reduction in visibility. The cold
advection will be strong with this front, and while gusts normally
subside around sunset, that will not be the case today. With the 18Z
TAF package, have slightly delayed the drop in wind gusts from 30 to
20 kt compared to the 12Z TAF package, and have decided to keep
gusts through 18Z Tuesday at all sites, even through the night.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected until Friday night, after
which rain and restrictions are forecast at all terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1205 PM Monday...

* Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM to capture an
  elevated adverse fire behavior risk behind a cold front.

The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until this evening for the
Piedmont and western Sandhills for combined gusty winds and lower
humidity. A strong cold front will advance east and provide a brief
window (3 hours or so) of strong gusty winds and much lower
humidity, mainly over the western Piedmont. Sustained winds of 15-20
mph will gust at times to 30-40 mph. A further examination today has
led us to believe that perhaps conditions may not fully meet Red
Flag criteria, but it is certainly warranted if dewpoints can drop
faster than expected. The dry advection looks to be a tad slower,
resulting in overall higher RH than anticipated, bottoming out in
the 35-percent range.

Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions will persist Tue and
Wed when humidity values will be very low in the 20 to 25 percent
range during the late morning through early evening hours. While
humidity and fuels will meet fire danger criteria, wind gusts will
be more marginal, with gusts of 15-25 mph expected. We will
coordinate as needed with NCFS for any statements.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AK/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Green
FIRE WEATHER...AK