Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

663
FXUS62 KRAH 011130
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain over the area through the end of the
week, bringing dry weather to the region along with varying amounts
of cloud cover. Low pressure will track south of the Carolinas late
Friday into Saturday, bringing the next chance of rain to the area.
Dry weather will return Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

* Near normal temperatures Thursday afternoon and dry weather
  expected to continue.

To start the new year, a shortwave trough looks to move to our
north, with an associated backdoor cold front moving into the mid-
Atlantic. Models are still suggesting that the cooler air behind the
cold front will stay to our north near the NC/VA border through the
afternoon, keeping central NC dry with moderating temperatures.
Highs this afternoon look to reach the upper 40s in the north to the
mid/upper 50s in the south. Winds also look to veer to northwesterly
through the day, perhaps gusting up to 15-25 mph Thursday afternoon,
with higher gusts expected in the north. Temperatures overnight look
to stay near to slightly above normal, dropping to the upper 20s in
the north to low 30s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

* Above normal temperatures expected.

* Rain chances return late Friday night.

Friday morning through evening central NC will remain dry as zonal
flow will dominate over the region. This will also allow
temperatures to increase more on Friday. Highs Friday afternoon look
to reach the 50s in all of central NC, with perhaps a few locations
reaching 60 in the south. Lows then look to dip to the mid/upper 30s
north to the low 40s south.

A low pressure system will approach the region from the southwest on
Friday. While most of the rain looks to occur after sunrise on
Saturday, some light rain should start spreading into central NC
late Friday night. All precipitation that falls should be rain as
the atmosphere will be too warm.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

Key Message #1: Cool and Soggy Conditions Saturday

A low-amplitude southern stream shortwave trough will progress
quickly across the Southeast Saturday, pushing offshore Saturday
night. A weak surface cyclone tracking across Georgia and South
Carolina will keep central NC in the cool, stable, NELY low-level
flow regime. Rain will overspread the area during the morning,
resulting in a cool and soggy conditions throughout the day.

A sharp north-to-south temperature gradient is expected, with highs
across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain struggling
to reach upper 30s/near 40, while the Sandhills and southern
Piedmont/coastal plain warm to around 50 degrees.

Rain will taper off from west-east fashion during the late evening
and overnight hours as the low exits and low-level cold air
advection sets in. Overnight lows will range from around freezing
north to upper 30s/near 40 south.

This system is expected to bring me some much needed rainfall to
central NC, with totals generally ranging from 0.25-0.50" north of
HWY 64 and 0.50-1.0" south of HWY 64.


Key Message #2: Dry with a warming trend through midweek

Transient sfc high pressure will build across the area Sunday and
Monday, supporting dry conditions and near-seasonable temperatures.
By Tuesday, the high shifts offshore. Low-level southerly return
flow underneath increasing heights aloft as mid/upper level ridging
in from the west will maintain dry conditions and a steady warming
trend, with temperatures rising to well-above normal by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail over the entirety of the 24 hour TAF
period. This morning, expect the high VFR clouds to thin and move
out of the area. A brief period of 4kft ceilings may also be
possible early this afternoon in the Triad. Otherwise, only high
clouds are expected through the day. This afternoon westerly to
northwesterly winds look to gust to around 16-22 kts, with greater
confidence north.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Friday night, but
eventually widespread rain and IFR conditions are expected into
Saturday night. Dry VFR conditions should return for Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...LH
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...LH/Leins