Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

202
FXUS62 KRAH 281117
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
616 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will hold just to our south and west through
much of today, then lift back north as a warm front tonight. A
strong cold front will sweep across the state on Monday,
bringing dry and cool weather through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

* Cloudy, dreary, and drizzly in the Triad today within the
  developing cold-air-damming regime.

* Patchy fog, potentially dense at times, will be possible along and
  north of the I-85 corridor late this evening into the early
  overnight hours.

An in-situ CAD regime is beginning to take shape this morning and
will likely persist throughout the much of the day. Surface winds
are predominately out of the NE-E with a stalled boundary draped
from western NC arcing back towards coastal SC. The parent 1025mb
surface high is located over the Chesapeake Bay and is forecast to
continue to shift SSE off the Carolina coast this afternoon and
towards Bermuda tonight. Despite the unfavorable surface high
placement, the in-situ CAD is expected to be locked in by low
overcast and drizzle/light-rain, especially over the Piedmont,
developing early this morning and persist through tonight. High
temperatures with the latest forecast have leaned heavily on the
10th percentile of the NBM and blend of statistical guidance
resulting in a range from upper 40s to upper 50s. Depending on the
intensity and onset of the steady drizzle and light rain over the
Piedmont, hi-res guidance suggest highs may be around 5 degrees
cooler compared to the current forecast.

Light rain and drizzle is expected to shift east and weaken through
the evening hours. At the same time, the front to our south will
begin to lift northward into the overnight hours. Moisture advection
ahead of the warm front will likely result in rapidly lowering cloud
bases after 03z and may result in patchy to areas of fog,
potentially dense, as this cloud layer lowers to the ground. The
most likely area will be the climatologically favored areas along
and north of the I-85 corridor, but could be as far south as the
Triangle. A non-diurnal temperature curve is expected tonight as the
warm front gradually mixes northward into Mon morning, although this
warming may be slower than forecast guidance suggest which typically
mixes out the CAD regime too quickly. Forecast refinements will
likely be needed once the strength of CAD develops.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

* Pattern change with the passage of a strong cold front, which will
  bring gusty winds, mostly light precipitation, and return
  temperatures to below normal.

* Southwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph will be possible ahead of the
  cold front with frequent 30-35 mph northwest winds after its
  passage.

* Low relative humidity and strong, veering wind gusts may result in
  increased fire danger to near Red Flag criteria behind the cold
  front Mon afternoon. Please see Fire Weather section below for
  more information.

The wedge-front is expected to slowly mix northward into VA Mon
morning, with even the slowest guidance suggesting it will clear the
Triad around 12-15z, perhaps only hanging on in far northwest
Forsyth. A deep sub-990mb low over the Upper Great Lakes Mon morning
will shift into western Quebec by Mon evening and will drive a
strong cold front east of the Appalachians Mon morning and
traversing central NC by early afternoon. Since central NC should be
within the warm sector at this point, as the boundary layer begins
to heat, southwesterly winds ahead of the front (eastern Piedmont,
Sandhills, and Coastal Plain) are expected to begin gusting 20-30
mph. Persistent cloud cover ahead of the front should limit the
stronger wind gusts highlighted in the hi-res guidance. The
strongest wind gusts will most likely be behind the front and when
clearing of the low-overcast begins (16z northwest, 20z east). At
this time, frequent wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible;
infrequent gusts of around 40 mph should be expected as well.
Pressure rises and CAA should continue well into Mon night and
result in periodic gusts of around 25 mph becoming less frequent
after 2 AM.

Precipitation is expected to spread east immediately along and
behind the cold front, driven by strong 925mb FGEN overlapping
intense H5 height falls of 100-150 dam in 12 hours. This intense
forcing may provide a favorable setup for a narrow cold-frontal
rainband to develop, which would be capable of locally heavier
rainfall and briefly strong wind gusts. Latest hi-res guidance
suggest timing of this feature, and the cold front forcing it, would
be 12-18z from west to east across central NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

* Gusty winds and low humidity Tuesday may bring a concern for
  adverse fire weather conditions, which could last into Wed.

* Chilly Tue with much below normal temperatures, then moderating to
  more seasonable readings Wed-Sat.

* Patchy light rain possible Sat, but confidence is low.

Tue will be our coldest day of this stretch, as the Arctic high
builds in post-front, supported by large mid level low over the
Canadian Maritimes and a trough covering much of eastern NOAM.
Despite ample sunshine in our area with NW flow and deep subsidence,
strong CAA and thicknesses 30-40 m below normal support highs in the
upper 30s to upper 40s, with wind chills in the 20s and 30s for much
of the day. Gusts of 20-25 mph should be common, and these winds
plus min RH values of 20-30 percent will bring about some fire
weather concerns, although the chilly temps should mitigate this
risk somewhat. Lows Tue night will be mostly in the 20s.

The rest of the week will lean closer to seasonable temperatures and
appears generally dry, although low rain chances will arrive Fri
into Sat. Surface winds will gust up to 20 mph Wed, with continued-
low dewpoints with milder temps resulting in minimum humidities down
into the upper teens to mid 20s, leading to another day with
potential fire weather concerns. The mid level trough axis pushes
off the East Coast Wed, but the longwave trough will maintain a
presence over eastern NOAM through the rest of the week with
northwesterly and gently-cyclonic mid level flow, leading to bouts
of fair to partly cloudy skies, including across the N Tue night/Wed
morning and Wed night through Thu. The surface high will modify and
settle over TX then into the Gulf, giving us rebounding thicknesses
closer to normal, lasting through the week. By Thu into Fri, polar
stream energy dives into the base of the mean low over James Bay,
over the Great Lakes and Northeast, pushing the Arctic front south
toward NC and possibly causing a brief cooldown especially across
our N on Fri. As that wave pushes offshore and out over the NW
Atlantic, we get into a still-wavy but overall flatter flow across
the CONUS, with greater influence from Pacific-source waves. Both
the predictability of these waves at this range and how much
moisture return we are able to tap into are both questionable, so
while we are bringing in low chance pops from the W Sat, the
confidence in the details is low. Temps should be within a category
of normal Wed-Fri, then most likely a bit above normal Sat with
partly to mostly cloudy skies. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 615 AM Sunday...

Coverage of the MVFR cigs is rapidly expanding across central NC
this morning with continued degradation in the Triad to IFR, and
potential for briefly LIFR. Patchy drizzle has been reported at GSO
for a couple hours and this pattern should continue at the Triad
terminals through a majority of the day. Improvement to MVFR is
becoming increasingly unlikely, but to cover the period where they
may bounce up to around 1000ft a MVFR TEMPO has been introduced at
GSO. IFR cigs should remain west of RDU until after sunset. RWI and
FAY forecast remains a little more uncertain as a warm front lifting
north will create a sharp gradient in the aviation flight
restrictions. Opted to keep them both MVFR for now. Light rain and
drizzle should spread east and affect all terminals throughout the
day, but is not expected to be the primary driver in flight category.

As the area of drizzle weakens and lifts out of the area, IFR cigs
will rapidly expand eastward and further lower to 200-300 ft with
highest confidence in the Triad; as the cloud layer lowers to the
ground in the Triad, vsbys are expected to drop below 2SM with
patchy dense fog possible, primarily between 03 and 09z. All
terminals will experience LLWS as a 40-50kt low-level jet
strengthens after 00z,which will continue through the remainder of
the TAF period.

Outlook: Low level wind shear conditions are likely to persist
through much of the overnight, along with a high chance for
continued sub-VFR cigs and vsbys. Sub-VFR cigs will prevail through
much of Mon morning, exiting from western terminals in the late
morning and out of eastern terminals in the early to mid afternoon
as the Arctic cold front crosses the area. A chance of a narrow band
of light showers is expected with the front, in the morning until
mid afternoon. Blustery winds are likely just ahead of and behind
the front, with gusts up to 25-35 kts from ~09z Mon until early
evening. Winds will lessen somewhat but remain gusty up to 20-25 kts
Mon night through much of Tue. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
dominate from Mon evening through Thu under high pressure. -GIH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

A strong cold front is forecast to shift across central NC Monday
morning through the early afternoon hours. Behind the front, and
especially as skies begin to clear, strong downsloping winds,
rapidly dropping relative humidity, and gradually veering winds, will
pose an elevated concern for increased fire behavior. By 18z,
sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph will become
increasingly possible as relative humidity values rapidly drop below
30%. These parameters will likely overlap for 3-5 hours over a given
area, first over the western Piedmont, and shift eastward through
the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain between 18z and
00z.

Marginally hazardous fire weather conditions will also be possible
on Tues and Wed when relative humidity values will be exceptionally
dry, in the low 20s and teens, during peak heating. Wind gusts and
soil conditions will likely be the driving factors on whether any
headlines will be needed each day. Gusts on Tues will be slightly
stronger with frequent gusts around 20 to 25 mph expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...AS/Hartfield
FIRE WEATHER... AS