Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

378
FXUS62 KRAH 101031
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
631 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 228 AM Friday...

1) Heat advisory is now in effect for Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland and
Sampson Counties from 11 AM until 8 PM today.

2) Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective chances
continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front and
potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 AM Friday...

Key Message 1: Heat advisory is now in effect for Scotland, Hoke,
Cumberland and Sampson Counties from 11 AM until 8 PM today.

The persistent hot and humid airmass continues today across central
NC. Despite the potential for scattered afternoon convection, strong
insolation through early afternoon should support highs in the mid
to upper 90s, with a few locations near 100 degrees across the
southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. With sfc dewpoints expected to
remain in the lower to middle 70s, peak heat index values of 105 or
more are expected this afternoon, particularly south and east of
Raleigh where convective development will hold off until later in
the day (compared to locations farther north and west where
showers/thunderstorms may occur earlier). Confidence remains high
that Heat Advisory criteria will be met across Scotland, Hoke,
Cumberland, and Sampson counties, thus a heat advisory has been
issued for those four central NC counties from 11 AM until 8 PM
today. While thunderstorms may provide localized relief later this
afternoon and evening, they will arrive too late to significantly
limit daytime heat stress, particularly in the advisory counties.
Residents with prolonged outdoor exposure should take frequent
breaks, remain hydrated, and seek air-conditioned environments
whenever possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective
chances continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front
and potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday.

Weak mid-lvl and convectively perturbed westerly flow will work to
focus otherwise air mass convection this afternoon/evening. Moderate
instability, seasonable PWAT values, and steep low-lvl lapse rates
will support damaging straight-line winds as the most likely hazard
each afternoon and evening. Best chances may be more focused around
southern Appalachians that moves eastward into the Piedmont aided by
outflow stemming from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley early
this morning.

Precipitation chances and coverage are expected to increase heading
into the weekend as anomalous mid/upper lvl ridging over the Four
Corners into the Northern Plains directs a west-to-east streamer of
anomalous moisture and parade of convectively induced shortwave
disturbances traverse the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. At the same
time, high pressure is expected to build and strengthen over the
Northeast and push a backdoor cold front into and through central NC
Sun into Monday. Convective chances will be muddied by prior storm
coverage and rain cooled outflow from convection today and Saturday
as well as the approaching cold front. If adequate instability is
able to develop, increased mid-lvl flow of 25-35 kts would allow for
more organized convection to develop.

With seasonably enhanced westerly flow in place over the southern
Mid-Atlantic, storm motions should be rather progressive to preclude
scattered flooding risk. However, if any trailing outflow is able to
lay out east-west across the forecast area, training and back
building storms will be possible as better deep layer moisture and
weak Corfidi vectors are in place to provide a locally enhanced
flooding risk. By Sun a mid-lvl low may stall around the TN Valley
and could bring diabatic precipitation atop a CAD boundary over the
western Piedmont and eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians,
bringing increased rainfall to our western counties. But confidence
in timing/location of this mid-lvl feature is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 631 AM Friday...

TAF period: VFR conditions are expected through much of the period,
with scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening.
Based on the latest HRRR guidance, the greatest confidence for TSRA
impacts will be at INT/GSO between 19-23Z, then RDU/RWI/FAY between
21-02Z. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in heavier
showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty and erratic winds.
Convection should diminish from west to east after 02-04Z, with VFR
prevailing overnight.

Outlook: Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue
through at least Tuesday, resulting in brief sub-VFR conditions at
times. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected to
dominate.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

July 10:
KRDU 99/1993  KFAY 103/1986


Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 10: KGSO 77/1981  KRDU: 77/2024  KFAY: 77/1998
July 11: KGSO 75/1992  KRDU: 77/1981  KFAY: 77/2024

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for
NCZ085-086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np/AS
AVIATION...np
CLIMATE...RAH