Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

559
FXUS62 KRAH 270723
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from the earlier forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 320 AM Thursday...

1) Unsettled weather and above-normal rain chances are expected
through Sat evening, with isolated heavy downpours possible. A few
strong storms also possible on Fri.

2) Above-normal temperatures likely to end August and persist into
early September.

$$

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unsettled weather and above-normal rain chances are
expected through Sat evening, with isolated heavy downpours
possible. A few strong storms also possible on Fri.

We will stay in a moist and unsettled pattern through late Sat, as
baggy mid level troughing holds from the E Great Lakes/SW Quebec
down through W NC/AL/GA, sandwiched between a strong anticyclone
centered over AZ/NM and another anticyclone centered offshore SE of
Bermuda. Yesterday`s below-normal PW (~0.75-1.1") has already been
supplanted by values of 1.5-2.0" as a deep wet flow through the
column continues on the E side of the mid level trough. These
anomalous PWs (110-130% of normal, highest along/E of Hwy 1)
combined with periodic upper level speed maxes rotating through the
trough base to the E side of the trough (yielding modest DPVA) and
the passing bouts of RRQ upper divergence will act on this moisture
to squeeze out scattered showers across our area, with a few mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible. Dewpoints returning to
the low-mid 70s and partial heating through a mix of sun and clouds
will help push daily SBCAPE to peaks of 1500-2500 J/kg each day
through Sat, highest mid-late afternoon, although the deep layer
bulk shear stays quite borderline at around 20 kts and mid level
lapse rates are likely to hold at 5.3-5.9 C/km, which should limit
storm organization and strength respectively. But the elevated PW
values especially along/E of Hwy 1 along with expectations of a deep
warm cloud layer over 4 km favoring warm rain processes and the
potential for slow storm motion and training will support pockets of
heavy downpours and high localize rain totals. The expected limited
coverage of heavy rain clusters precludes consideration of a flood
watch, but at least a few flood advisories may be needed. Rain
chances will head back down late in the weekend as the upper level
shear axis pivots clockwise to a W-E orientation and pushes to our
S, allowing mid-upper ridging to build from the mid Miss Valley and
lower Ohio Valley through the Mid Atlantic.

Regarding the potential for strong storms, a few wet microbursts
will be possible each afternoon/evening, with the highest risk for
strong storms on Fri, when SPC has us in an area of Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe storms. Again, the bulk shear won`t be
especially strong, but the moderate CAPE and possible dynamic
contributions from upstream MCVs and RRQ upper divergence could tip
the scales to more mature and long-lived storms on Fri.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Above-normal temperatures likely to end August and
persist into early September.

The persistent anomalous mid/upper lvl ridge and anticyclone over
the Four Corners region will be displaced by a series of shortwave
troughs progressing through the PacNW and northern/central
Intermountain West. This process will gradually build mid/upper lvl
heights over the Deep South and TN Valley early next week and likely
persisting into early September.

This height pattern will be favorable for positive H850 temp
anomalies to spread into the region and favor well-above normal
temperatures. Although the temperature forecast will naturally be
complicated by late morning and afternoon convective chances, deep
layer of anomalous lower/mid tropospheric temps, and close proximity
with the deep subtropical ridge may help mitigate the widespread
convective chances. As a result, temperatures in the mid/upper 90s
will be possible Tues onward with the experimental HeatRisk having a
40-70% chance of reaching the Major risk category.

The European model suite and related AI guidance holds this pattern
well into the first full week of September while the GFS model suite
shows the potential to break down the ridge and retrograde it
westward as early as late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

With a couple of potential exceptions, VFR conditions should
dominate across central NC terminals for the next 24 hrs. A very
weak and diffuse frontal zone sits across N NC currently, and this
front will continue to dissipate through the morning as light
surface flow from the S and SSW prevails. A few showers will drift
northward toward the INT/GSO areas over the next few hours, but
otherwise our TAF sites should remain dry until at least early
afternoon, when heating will help kick off a few showers and
embedded storms from mid afternoon through much of this evening.
Abundant mid and high clouds will be mostly bkn through tonight with
bases around 12-15kft, and few lower clouds based 1-3kt can`t be
ruled out this morning 09z-14z, but these lower clouds should stay
scattered at most. Patchy brief MVFR to IFR fog is also possible
early this morning (09z-13z), best chance at RWI, then the expected
sct convection from mid afternoon through evening may be accompanied
by brief MVFR cigs, with the highest rain chances at FAY, although
isold showers or storms will be possible at any TAF site. Surface
winds will be under 8 kts from the S and SW through tonight.

Looking beyond 06z Fri, there is a chance for MVFR cigs/vsbys at all
sites early Fri morning, especially in areas that see any rain. The
chance of showers and storms and associated periodic sub-VFR
conditions will remain high through Sat evening, with highest
chances from mid afternoon through early evening each day. Morning
sub-VFR fog/stratus can`t be ruled out 08z-14z at any site Fri and
Sat. Rain chances should then decrease for Sun onward as ridging
builds aloft, and early-morning sub-VFR fog/clouds will also
decline.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Swiggett
AVIATION...Hartfield