Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

452
FXUS62 KRAH 232357
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
756 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Air Quality Alert was issued earlier this morning for the southern
  Piedmont and a portion of the Sandhills.

* Temperatures trending cooler for Monday with brief CAD signal
  behind the cold frontal passage.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

1) An Air Quality Alert will remain in effect for the southern
Piedmont and a portion of the Sandhills until 8 PM this evening.

2) Continued above normal temperatures through Saturday.

3) Measurable precipitation chances and frequency of events increase
starting this weekend through the end of April.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
An Air Quality Alert will remain in effect for the southern Piedmont
and a portion of the Sandhills until 8 PM this evening.

In collaboration with the NC Department of Environmental Quality, an
Air Quality Alert has been issued for the southern Piedmont and
portion of the Sandhills through this evening. Warm and dry
conditions across the Carolinas, abundant sunshine and weak
surface winds are all favorable for ozone formation at the surface.
Additionally, regional satellite imagery this morning showed smoke
and haze from wildfires in in GA/FL as far north as the NC/SC
border. These factors combined will contribute to Code Orange Air
Quality, which indicates these levels of ozone will be unhealthy for
sensitive groups. Further Air Quality Alerts may be needed for
portions of the area Friday and Saturday as the forecast pattern
remains relatively unchanged with perhaps greater influence from
wildfire smoke from the southwest.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Continued above normal temperatures through Saturday.

A high-latitude omega blocking pattern is expected to develop over
Canada as early as Thurs and persist into the weekend. This will
allow for weak southwesterly surface flow to persist over the area
and steadily raise low-level thicknesses by 2-5m each day. These
thicknesses and deep, boundary-layer mixing will likely support
unseasonably warm temperatures --10-15 degrees above normal--
beginning this afternoon through Sat. A weak area of low pressure is
expected to track along a stalled boundary over the Mid-Atlantic
late Sat into Sat night and push a weak cold front through our area
by Sun morning; effectively settling daytime temperatures back to
near normal.

Based on these temperatures, Heat Risk is highlighting Minor to
Moderate levels (Level 1 and Level 2 respectively) through Sat. This
level of heat will primarily affect those individuals who are
especially sensitive to heat and without access to adequate cooling
and/or hydration. One positive is that the air mass will remain very
dry with 30-40 degree dew point depressions during peak heating, and
result in minimum RH values in the 20-30s.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
Measurable precipitation chances and frequency of events increase
starting this weekend through the end of April.

Guidance continues to suggest two main chances for measurable
rainfall through the forecast period; Saturday afternoon into Sunday
and Tuesday, although no significant rainfall is expected.

Saturday afternoon into Sun: A convectively modified shortwave
ejecting over the Ohio Valley Sat afternoon is expected to shift
across the Mid-Atlantic Sat evening into Sun morning. This feature,
along with eastward advection of seasonably anomalous deep-layer
moisture, will help direct convectively perturbed westerly flow over
the Carolinas. Forcing for ascent will be overall quite weak and
localized along the track of MCV`s from upstream convection so
significant precipitation is not expect. Expect primarily trace
amounts to around 0.3" in most locations. Limited hi-res guidance
suggests 250 to around 500 J/kg of SBCAPE may develop during the
afternoon hours and may support deeper updrafts and locally higher
rainfall totals. Additionally, steep low-lvl lapse rates and modest
DCAPE environment could support a localized wind risk if deeper
convection and stronger cold-pools can develop.

Tuesday: A more significant trough is forecast to pivot from the
Four Corners Region to the Great Lakes from Sun to early Tues around
the parent closed-low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Once again, the
Carolinas will only see glancing influence from the trough and
mainly directs another plume of seasonably anomalous deep-layer
moisture and perturbed westerly flow over the Carolinas. The timing
of this first round of most-likely stratiform rain, given the stable
preceding environment, is expected Tues morning into the early
afternoon hours. This will make the second round, featuring
scattered showers/storms, less certain and dependent on
destabilization in the wake of the departing mid/upper level
moisture axis.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 752 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hr TAF period with light
sswly flow. An isolated afternoon shower is possible at any TAF
site, but probablities are far too low to introduce any
precipitation at this package.

Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through Sat morning. The
chance for sub-VFR conditions will increase as showers and a few
storms sweep through the area from west to east from late Sat
afternoon through Sun morning. Another round of showers and storms
with possible sub-VFR conditions will occur late Mon night through
Tue evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...Luchetti/LH