Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

522
FXUS62 KRAH 260923
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
423 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southwestward across NC this morning,
followed by cold high pressure that will ridge across the Middle
Atlantic today. The front will then waver across the Carolinas ahead
of a stronger cold front that will sweep across the region on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

A shortwave trough will progress across the Great Lakes today and
across and offshore the Middle Atlantic early tonight, with
associated glancing and weak (~20 meter/12hr) height falls that will
result across cntl NC through early this evening. Low-level mass
response ahead of the progressive shortwave trough will favor the
development and intensification of swly flow in the 925-850 mb
layer, above a surface frontal zone (and frontal inversion)
described below. An associated 925 mb-centered warm front will
develop and migrate across cntl NC this afternoon through early
evening, followed by veering in that layer through wly to nwly
overnight.

At the surface, cP high pressure will ridge, from its 1032 mb center
over QC, swd and across the Middle Atlantic. Along its srn
periphery, a backdoor cold front, now stretching from near Little
River nwwd across the NC srn Piedmont, will continue swwd this
morning and become quasi-staionary over the SC Upstate and Midlands.
A weak coastal, frontal wave may develop along that front and ripple
newd and along and just off the NC coast this evening, while a weak
high will get pinched off inland across cntl NC and sern VA. The
inland portion of the front will effectively remain quasi-stationary
overnight and not "jump"/appear nwd over cntl NC until Sat morning,
when the aforementioned warm air above the frontal and nocturnal
inversion is diabatically-realized with heating. Occasionally breezy
nely flow this morning will veer through ely and sely, while
diminishing through the afternoon-evening, followed by occasional
swly stirring tonight.

The aforementioned swly flow above the surface front will favor
isentropic lift and the maintenance and nwd progression of a band of
stratocumulus across cntl NC through this evening, followed by
downslope drying/erosion of the cloud band as 925-850 mb flow veers
to a strongly downslope component overnight. While that lift and
cloud layer, and also continued altocumulus above, may generate
patches of very light rain, a dry boundary layer characterized by
forecast surface dewpoints in the 20s-30s F should keep most areas
dry, with an inconsequential sprinkle at best today. A couple of
hundredths of very light rain will then be possible through the far
ern Coastal Plain this evening, on the nw side of the weak and
passing coastal, frontal wave. It will otherwise be markedly cooler
today than Christmas Day, with high temperatures mostly in the 50s,
except mid/upr 40s over the far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain.
The surface pattern will favor limited diurnal temperature range
into tonight, with lows in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Friday...

Mid/upr-level ridging will amplify and progress across the Middle
and South Atlantic states this period. Deep subsidence will
generally be favored over cntl NC, though initially delayed by
strong orographic ascent over the nw Piedmont Sat morning.

At the surface, a persistent and wavering frontal zone will probably
appear over the NC ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain with diurnal
heating early Sat. The front will subsequently progress swwd across
cntl NC once again during the day Sat and reach the SC Upstate and
Midlands Sat night. Continental Polar ridging anew will follow and
result across the Middle Atlantic.

The presence and progression of the cold front will yield a dramatic
temperature difference ranging from lwr-mid 70s over the srn
Piedmont to lwr 60s over the far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain.
Aside from considerable orographic cirrus in the morning over the nw
through nrn Piedmont, skies should be(come) sunny otherwise and
elsewhere. Initially clear skies Sat evening will then fill with
mostly thin, high-level cloudiness through Sun morning, especially
across the nrn half of cntl NC, as high-level moisture streams
through the aforementioned upr ridge. Low temperatures will be a
little cooler on average than Fri night and range from mid 30s to
lwr-mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Upper pattern: A mid-level ridge will move over the southeast Sunday
ahead of a deeper trough that will dig down from Canada and move
across the eastern US early Monday through Tuesday. Nwly flow and
rising mid-level heights aloft will spread east across central NC
Wednesday through Friday.

Sunday: Guidance continues to trend slower with the arrival of the
upper trough and strong sfc cold front early next week. As such,
largely nwly flow aloft will promote dry conditions Sunday. However,
upstream perturbations associated with the approaching upper trough
will promote a bit more cloudiness compared to Saturday.
Additionally, an area of high pressure will drift east across the
Mid-Atlantic and extend nely flow down into central NC early Sunday.
This setup would promote cooler highs on Sunday in the mid to upper
50s.

Monday through Thursday: Most guidance now has the front moving
across central NC later Monday afternoon, with CAA ramping up later
Monday night. As such, highs on Monday have trended much warmer with
solid swly flow ahead of the front pushing highs in the mid to upper
60s with lower to mid 70s possible in the Coastal Plain. Associated
rain chances will peak late Monday afternoon and into the early
overnight period. However, ensembles continue to highlight low QPF
with this system (95th percentiles highlight only a few tenths of an
inch to maybe a half inch through Tuesday morning). Still expecting
some stronger post-frontal nwly gusts of 25 to 35 mph Monday
afternoon and through the overnight period.  A few of the machine
learning probabilistic models (e.g. CSU`s ML severe probabilities;
Pangu; FengWu) highlight low-end probabilities for severe weather
with this system over eastern areas of our CWA. However, dew points
will likely only reach the upper 50s in this vicinity and as such
any concerning instability/shear combination will likely remain
along the coast or more-so offshore. Still, it`s worth monitoring
given the intense kinematics with this system.

Temperature wise, guidance has trended less intense with the post-
frontal cool down expected Tuesday/Wednesday.  850 mb ensemble
temperatures are forecast to dip into the 15 to 20% percentile (just
a few nights ago ensembles had 850 temps down into the 1st to 5th
percentile).  As such, the max temperature forecast has increased a
bit peaking into the mid 40s Tuesday followed by the lower 50s on
Wednesday.  Overnight lows will dip into the mid to upper 20s Monday
night, followed by a bit colder temps in the lower to mid 20s
Tuesday night.

Residual gustiness (20 to 25 mph) on Tuesday coupled with
considerably drier air (dew points in the single digits) could pose
fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures moderate to near normal Wednesday and Thursday in the
mid to upper 40s. A dry cold front will then likely pass through
Thursday night into Friday with another cool down to start the new
year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 AM Friday...

A backdoor cold front and related gusty wind shift to nely, which
has already passed RWI and RDU as of 06Z, will continue to move swwd
across cntl NC this morning. A band of post-frontal, mostly 3500-
5000 ft stratocumulus ceilings will also accompany the front,
beneath continued 6-10 thousand ft altocumulus that will continue to
stream across the region. Those stratocumulus ceilings will probably
lower into upr end MVFR range from south to north this afternoon
through evening, as "overrunning" lift strengthens.

Outlook: A frontal zone will continue to waver across NC through the
weekend, with related periods of mostly MVFR ceilings and also a
risk of low-level wind shear Sat and Mon mornings. A stronger cold
front will sweep across the region with a chance of rain and
additional flight restrictions on Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS