Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

047
FXUS62 KRAH 141006
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
607 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...

* Increased Fire Danger Statement for the western Piedmont and
  Sandhills through 800 PM today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 144 AM Tuesday...

1) Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near record heat will
promote fire weather concerns through the end of the week.

2) A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the
southeastern United States through late week, supporting an early-
season heat wave with temperatures 1520F or more above climatology.

3) Late-weekend pattern transition possible with low-end rain
chances on Sunday with fropa...followed by cooler temps.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 144 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry fuels combined with lower humidity and near
record heat will promote fire weather concerns through the end of
the week. No changes to the week as far as highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s and no rainfall through Saturday.

The NC Forest Service has requested additional messaging along with
their current state-wide burn ban. We issued an Increased Fire
Danger Statement (IFD) the western Piedmont/Sandhills through 800 PM
today. More statements will be needed Wednesday and beyond.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist
over the southeastern United States through late week, supporting an
early-season heat wave with temperatures 1520F or more above
climatology.

A highly anomalous mid-level ridge will persist over the
southeastern United States through late week, supporting record or
near-record heat across central North Carolina. Both the GFS and
ECMWF deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in strong agreement
depicting a robust 500-mb ridge centered over the Southeast and Mid-
Atlantic. During this period, H8 temps are progged in the 15-17C
range along with deep-layer thickness values approaching summer-like
magnitudes.  As a result, high temps will reach the upper 80s to
lower 90s basically Wednesday through Friday, with the typically
warmer locations southeast of RDU possibly seeing mid 90s. These
values are 20F degrees or more above mid-April normals. Hazards
associated with this heat may include early-season heat stress
(especially vulnerable populations) due to limited acclimatization.
See the climate section below for more details about the records
that may be threatened with this heat wave.

Key message 3...Late-weekend pattern transition possible with low-
end rain chances on Sunday with fropa...followed by cooler temps.

The ridge will gradually weaken and shift east over the weekend as a
trough advances from the Plains. A cold frontal passage is expected
on Sunday which may result in low-end rain chances. Behind the
front, temps will trend closer to seasonal normals (low-mid 70s)
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 607 AM Tuesday...

Sub-tropical high pressure extending across the South Atlantic
states will favor a high probability of VFR conditions through most
of the week.

SSW surface winds that will strengthen and become occasionally
gusty with daytime heating again today 10-20 kt. Winds will become
light at 5-10 kt. tonight.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will favor warm, dry, and
VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...

All-Time Records for April

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/28/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930


Record High Temperatures:

April 14: KGSO: 90/1922 KRDU: 91/1941 KFAY: 93/1922

April 15: KGSO: 90/2006 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 95/2006

April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941

April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15: KGSO: 65/2006 KRDU: 64/1993

April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921

April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

April 19: KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 67/2002

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/NP
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH