Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

095
FXUS62 KRAH 080723
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

* Minimal change to today`s expected storm threats, with a marginal
  risk for strong winds and brief hail with a few storms. Later in
  the forecast, some models have trended a little slower with cold
  front approach and passage Wed night/Thu.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

1) Continued marginal risk for severe weather today, with equal
threats for hail and for strong straight line winds within isolated
storms.

2) Warm temperatures continue through mid week, with a late week
cool down.

3) Low-confidence for severe weather potential with a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued marginal risk for severe weather today,
with equal threats for hail and for strong straight line winds
within isolated storms.

Still looking at the potential for a few low-end strong storms
today, ahead of an approaching weak surface cold front and minor
perturbations within the wavy WSW mid level flow. The band of
showers now moving through the W Piedmont continues to fizzle as it
outruns any dynamic forcing for ascent and encounters poor to absent
CAPE and growing CINH over central NC. With abundant moisture over
the area (PWs at 250-300% of normal), isolated showers remain
possible through the morning as subtle mid level perturbations pass
overhead, with 35-45 kt low level jetting from the SW supporting
shallow weak moist upglide. By mid afternoon, however, with PWs
still quite elevated, the arrival of stronger and more focused upper
divergence in the right entrance region of the upper jet should
prompt proliferation and upscale growth of convective cells over
central and eastern NC. Despite good BL growth, the marginal lapse
rates aloft will somewhat restrict CAPE to 500-1000 J/kg, highest in
the SE, and mid level flow is less than ideal to support organized
strong storms. The latest HREF joint probability of a CAPE over 500
J/kg and deep layer bulk shear over 30 kts is under 30%, although
recent individual RAP runs do favor a slightly stronger bulk shear.
While bkn cloud cover should persist over much of the CWA into the
afternoon, our eastern areas could see a few hours of fair skies
this afternoon to contribute to better heating and possibly greater
destabilization, thus expect the highest risk for a few strong to
low-end severe storms to be E of the Triad, and especially along and
E of Hwy 1, primarily focused from 3 PM to 8 PM. Convection should
wind down and push out of our SE areas from late evening into the
overnight hours.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Warm temperatures continue through mid week, with a
late week cool down.

An anomalous mid- to upper-level ridge flowing over the eastern U.S.
through mid week will support warm southwesterly flow across the
region. Highs will reach the mid 70s to low 80s through Wednesday,
running 1520 degrees above normal, while overnight lows remain
2025 degrees above normal. The warmest day appears to be Wednesday,
ahead of the next frontal passage when highs are expected to be in
the mid 80s across the area. By late week, a frontal boundary will
move across the region and will usher in cooler air. Highs will fall
back to the mid 60s to low 70s during the day and 40s at night.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Low-confidence for severe weather potential with a
cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.

A strong storm system moving across the Central Plains and into the
MS Valley will push a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic region
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Warm and humid air will be in
place ahead of the front, which could support a line of showers and
storms as it moves through the area. At this time, confidence in the
severity and exact impacts remains low. The overnight timing of the
front may limit instability, which could reduce the overall severe
weather threat. However, some storms could still produce gusty to
locally damaging winds, which appears to be the main hazard. The
exact timing of the front is still uncertain this far out. Recent
model trends have slowed the system slightly bringing the trough
across the region mid-day Thursday resulting in mainly Wednesday
night dry. After this system moves out of the region expect dry
conditions through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

Of most immediate concern is the band of showers and embedded storms
currently moving into the western Piedmont (including INT/GSO), and
the potential for a quick storm at these sites is included in the
first couple of hours of the TAF valid period. This activity is
expected to fizzle as it heads eastward, so the remainder of the
central NC terminals are unlikely to see a shower or storm this
morning, but will monitor. Otherwise, current VFR conditions are
expected to deteriorate to MVFR cigs soon after 09z, with the
highest confidence at RWI/FAY/RDU, and a lesser but non-zero risk at
INT/GSO as well. These low cigs may be accompanied by MVFR vsbys in
fog. A gradual improvement to VFR as cigs slowly rise is expected by
14z W and 16z E, although clouds will remain abundant through the
day. As an upper level disturbance and weak surface cold front
approach from the W, sctd to numerous showers and storms will
blossom, particularly over S and E areas, affecting RDU/RWI/FAY
mainly between 21z and 02z, and brief MVFR to IFR conditions may
occur with any storms, along with shifting winds. Redevelopment of
predominant MVFR cigs is expected after 04z. Surface winds will be
from the SW early this morning before shifting to WSW or W for much
of the day, sustained 8-12 kts with sporadic gusts of 15-22 kts
mainly 14z-22z. Winds will become light and variable after 02z.

Outlook after 06z Mon: Sub-VFR conditions (both cigs and vsbys in
fog) are expected to dominate after 06z tonight through ~15z Mon.
Early-day fog will be possible at any terminal each morning through
Wed, and an isolated shower or two may occur each afternoon, but
overall dry weather will prevail. Widespread adverse aviation
conditions are likely late Wed night through Thu as a strong cold
front and upper level trough move through, bringing a high chance
for sub-VFR conditions in numerous showers/storms, along with
strong and shifting winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

March 8:  KGSO: 83/2000    KRDU: 87/1974    KFAY: 87/1974
March 9:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 84/2009    KFAY: 87/1974
March 10: KGSO: 78/2016    KRDU: 81/1974    KFAY: 84/1974
March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 8:  KGSO: 57/1946     KRDU: 60/1946    KFAY: 63/1961
March 9:  KGSO: 61/1921     KRDU: 61/1921    KFAY: 62/1980
March 10: KGSO: 58/2016     KRDU: 57/2020    KFAY: 65/1964
March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/NL/CA
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH