Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

946
FXUS62 KRAH 090544
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1245 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Widespread frost/freeze conditions are most favored late this
  weekend Sat through Mon morning of next week.

* Rain chances remain limited Thursday into Friday as the system
  continues to trend north.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1245 AM Monday...

1) Thursday through Friday remains the best chance of precipitation,
although guidance continues to show limited rainfall.

2) Patchy frost may be possible Tuesday morning, but widespread
frost and freeze is expected this coming weekend into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1245 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Thursday through Friday remains the best chance of
precipitation, although guidance continues to show limited rainfall.

On the synoptic scale, not much has changed regarding the late week
system as the polar jet stream digs south and downstream
cyclogenesis occurs Thursday into Friday. A southern stream wave
will skirt to our south Wednesday, but only bring mid and high
clouds. The suite of ensemble guidance, including machine-learning
models/ensembles, continue to favor a northward trend in the surface
low. The consensus shows a track across northern VA into New
England. This forecast track would offer limited rain chances as the
main energy focuses well to the north of central NC. The best chance
would ultimately be with the warm front early Thursday and cold
front Thursday afternoon and evening. Even with the cold front,
ensembles do not show much rainfall, with the 25th to 75th
percentile only ranging from a few hundredths to at most three
tenths of an inch. The main impact from the system will be the
colder air and gusty winds. In fact, northwest wind gusts of 30-35
mph are favored Fri/Sat with a tight pressure gradient.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Patchy frost may be possible Tuesday morning, but
widespread frost and freeze is expected this coming weekend into
early next week.

Today, a weak dry cold front slides south later today and tonight,
with cool high pressure settling in for early Tuesday. While the
airmass does cool, it does not appear favorable for widespread
frost. Certainly outlying areas will dip into the middle 30s, but
most urban areas may only drop into the upper 30s to low 40s. Given
that, our confidence was too low to hoist a Frost Advisory. But
subsequent shifts may want to reevaluate things with newer guidance.

The better chance of frost/freeze conditions will come this weekend
into early next week. In the wake of the departing system,
Continental Polar high pressure is forecast to settle in from the TN
valley. Corresponding low-level thicknesses drop to between 1300 and
1310m, supportive of low to middle 30s, with outlying areas in the
upper 20s. The one limiting factor will be wind gusts. With a tight
pressure gradient expected Fri night between the departing low and
high pressure ridge to our west, lows in the mid to upper 30s may be
the norm with limited freezing temperatures. The better threat
appears Sunday and Monday mornings, when the surface high builds
east and winds relax.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Monday...

VFR conditions are generally expected over the 24 hour TAF period.
There is a non-zero chance of some shallow, patchy fog overnight in
the south and east. If this does occur the best chances would be at
FAY, followed by RWI. However, the chance of this still appears to
be low so kept it out of the TAFs. Otherwise, very little to no
clouds are expected today. Also, a few infrequent gusts between 15-
18kts may be possible mid-morning into early afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF outlook
period. Rain may return Thursday into Friday, bringing the next
chance of sub-VFR restrictions. Gusty winds may also be possible
Friday after a cold frontal passage.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...LH