Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

508
FXUS62 KRAH 200705
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
205 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 325 PM Thursday...

* Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm will accompany a
  pre-frontal trough/confluence axis across cntl NC on Fri. They
  will be followed by a dryline that will move across wrn NC and
  likely into the srn and wrn NC Piedmont by late afternoon. Swly
  winds will gust between 25-35 mph ahead of them, followed by
  equally gusty wly ones behind them. Critical fire weather
  conditions may briefly result over the wrn/srn Piedmont by late
  Fri afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 325 PM Thursday...

1) A front, and focus for rain along and to its north, will waver
over northern NC through Fri morning, with continued unseasonably
mild/warm and near record temperatures to its south and throughout
most of cntl NC.

2) A pre-frontal trough/confluence axis and focus for scattered
showers and perhaps an isolated storm will move across cntl NC on
Fri. Meanwhile, a dryline will likely move across wrn NC and into
the srn and wrn NC Piedmont by late afternoon. Critical fire weather
conditions may briefly result over the wrn/srn Piedmont Fri
afternoon.

3) Continued forecast uncertainty Friday night through Monday, with
details dependent upon the track, timing, and strength of a low as
it moves across the Southeast US/Carolinas and off the East Coast.

4) Below normal temperatures expected early to middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A front, and focus for rain/drizzle along and to
its north, will waver over northern NC through Fri morning, with
continued unseasonably mild/warm and near record temperatures to its
south and throughout most of cntl NC.

1020 mb high pressure now centered over srn new England will
probably cause the backdoor front now over nrn NC to settle slightly
swd into cntl NC tonight. The associated low overcast, rain/drizzle,
and mist/fog now over VA will consequently edge swd and across the
nrn NC Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain overnight. While rainfall
amounts from this regime in cntl NC will be very light and just a
few hundredths of an inch, with heavier amounts nwd into VA, some
briefly heavier showers may also launch along the boundary through
tonight. Those showers, like the few now over the nrn Coastal Plain,
will likely be surface-based ones with afternoon heating and
elevated ones overnight, with both supported by weak CAPE through an
uncapped thermodynamic profile with modest, ~6C/km mid-level lapse
rates sampled by the 12Z GSO RAOB. Forecast low temperatures will be
above the average high temperature for mid Feb and near daily record
high mins.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A pre-frontal trough/confluence axis and focus for
scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm will move across
cntl NC on Fri. Meanwhile, a dryline will likely move across wrn NC
and into the srn and wrn NC Piedmont by late afternoon.

A mid-level cyclone will deepen while progressing from the cntl
Plains this afternoon to the Great Lakes by Fri, with associated
height falls and forcing for ascent that are forecast to only glance
the srn Middle Atlantic (mostly north of cntl NC). At the surface,
the backdoor front will likely retreat nwd across nrn NC and srn VA
with daytime heating through midday Fri. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal
trough and dryline will move across NC Friday afternoon and be
followed by a cold front Friday night. Given the only glancing
forcing for ascent at the latitude of cntl NC, lift will likely be
shallow and confined to the surface features, with only scattered
showers and/or an isolated storm along the pre-frontal trough. The
moist sector ahead of them will be characterized by unseasonably
warm, humid, and weakly unstable air, with swly winds that will gust
between 25-35 mph. A sharply drier, but still unseasonably warm and
deeply mixed boundary layer, with equally strong wly wind gusts,
will follow them and likely reach the srn and wrn Piedmont by late
afternoon. Near record temperatures will result, as will critical or
nearly so fire weather conditions over the wrn/srn Piedmont,
briefly, Fri afternoon.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Continued forecast uncertainty Friday night through
Monday, with details dependent upon the track, timing, and strength
of a low as it moves across the Southeast US/Carolinas and off the
East Coast.

Overview: Aloft, the low over the Great Lakes on Fri will continue
ewd across the Northeast US Fri night, getting picked up by a larger
area of low pressure moving across/north of the Canadian Maritimes.
Meanwhile, another s/w will move off the cntl Rockies and track ewd
across the Plains within the broadening longwave trough Fri night.
The longwave trough will amplify as the s/w continues ewd across the
mid/upr MS Valley Sat/Sat night. The medium-range guidance is in
fairly good agreement closing off a low over the Great Lakes Sat
night as the leading s/w tracks across the TN/OH Valley. The models
are still not in agreement with the evolution of the low, and the
embedded s/w disturbances swinging around it, thereafter. Generally
expect the parent low to track across the mid-Atlantic (possibly as
far south as NC), with one or two shortwaves passing over the area
between Sun morning and Mon night/Tue. At the surface, as the low
moves ewd and away from the New England coast Fri night, the front
will progress ssewd across the area, becoming quasi-stationary and
draped generally W-E across the Southeast US/Carolinas. A low is
expected to develop along the front over the lower MS Valley Fri
night/Sat (timing and location still vary amongst the medium-range
guidance), then track ewd or newd along the front, across the
Southeast US/Carolinas and eventually offshore through Saturday
night/Sun. This low is expected to rapidly deepen once it moves
offshore, however the track and strength of the low during that time
remain uncertain, resulting in continued low confidence in forecast
details (wrt precipitation, winds, etc.).

Precipitation: There will likely be a lull in precipitation in the
wake of the front Fri night. Rain chances increase from the south
Sat/Sat night as the low tracks along the front. The farther north
the low tracks, the higher rain chances will be across central NC
and the slower it moves across the region, the longer rain may last.
Some additional precipitation will be possible Sun night/early Mon
as the low aloft moves across the mid-Atlantic and the surface low
deepens offshore, however it will depend on the evolution of both
features, which continues to be uncertain.

Temperatures could still be above normal Sat/Sat night, with the
front just south of the area (possibly lifting northward back into
it) and the coldest air largely staying north of the area. Once the
low moves out/away Sun, the front will move ewd and off the Carolina
and Southeast US coasts and nwly flow will strengthen over the area,
allowing for cold air to finally advect in and temperatures to swing
back to near/below normal.

Winds: The pressure gradient will strengthen between the deepening
low along/off the coast and the strong Arctic high ridging swd
across the Plains on Sunday, and remain quite strong through at
least Mon night. Additionally, in proximity to the deepening low, a
very strong LLJ may develop, with winds upward of 50 kts at the top
of the mixed layer possible over northeast portions of the area.
Expect breezy to windy conditions to prevail, with strong gusts
possible at times.


KEY MESSAGE 4... Below normal temperatures expected early to middle
of next week.

There is relatively high confidence temperatures will be below
normal Mon and Tue, with nwly flow in the wake of the front/low and
Arctic high pressure building swd across the Plains then progressing
ewd. Temperatures could rise back to near normal Wed, while the high
gradually modifies as it tracks ewd across and out of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 147 AM Friday...

The northern tier of terminals have all socked down to LIFR
conditions (combo of low ceilings and visibility) this morning as
they remain near or just north of a stalled frontal boundary. Expect
these conditions to persist through at least day break, before a
gradual lifting to MVFR and eventually VFR occurs through this
afternoon.

A dryline front is expected to sweep across central NC
later today. Out ahead of the front, swly gusts of 25 to 30 kts will
be possible at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI starting ~14Z through 18Z. Then post-
frontal wly winds (20 to 30kts) will pick up at KINT/KGSO early this
afternoon and persist through sunset. Winds will shift to wly at
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI as well, but may only gust in the 15 to 25 kt range
during and after this shift. A cold front will then sweep across
central NC tonight, but winds should weaken overnight despite its
passage.

A broken line of showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms may
accompany the dryline passage later this morning/afternoon but
should push east of central NC by mid afternoon. Any lingering sub-
VFR conditions should sweep out through the early afternoon, and VFR
conditions are otherwise expected to persist through the end of the
24 hr TAF period.

Outlook: A cold front will move across cntl NC Fri night and stall
over SC by early Sat. That front will be a focus for the development
of a couple of areas of low pressure and associated periods of rain
and additional flight restrictions over the Carolinas this weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

February 19:
KGSO: 74/1939
KRDU: 76/1939

February 20:
KGSO: 74/1922
KRDU: 75/1939
KFAY: 82/2014


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

February 19:
KGSO: 55/1961
KRDU: 62/1938
KFAY: 62/1938

February 20:
KGSO: 56/1939
KRDU: 62/1939
KFAY: 60/1939

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/KC
AVIATION...Luchetti/PWB/MWS