Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

517
FXUS62 KRAH 161827 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
224 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

* Precipitation chances increased for Sunday, but rainfall
  amounts remain very low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

1) Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through this
evening. A fire danger statement may be needed again Friday and
Saturday.

2) An early season heat wave continues through Saturday.

3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring scattered
showers embedded within a stratiform rain band. Conditions turn
cooler early next week with patchy frost possible Monday and
Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect
through this evening. A fire danger statement may be needed again
Friday and Saturday.

An increased fire danger remains in effect for all of central
NC through this evening, due to a combination of gusty winds,
RH as low as 20-35 percent, and severe to extreme drought. A lee
trough exists in place this afternoon and along with a tighter
pressure gradient, is allowing for wind gusts to reach the 20-25
mph range. A few infrequent gusts to 30 mph are also possible.
As temperatures climb into the upper 80s NW to low 90s elsewhere
and dewpoints mix out into the upper 40s to low 50s, our RH
levels will fall into critical territory.

On Friday, although winds are expected to be weaker with the
passage of a mid-level shortwave and with a weaker pressure
gradient, relative humidity levels will still dip into the 20s
in most areas of central NC in a downslope NW flow regime. By
Saturday, the pressure gradient tightens again with continued
hot weather in the 90s, and another day of RH levels in the 20s.
We are currently in coordination with NCFS on the need for a fire
danger statement Friday and Saturday, and will follow up if
conditions warrant.


KEY MESSAGE 2... An early season heat wave continues through
Saturday.

The early season heat will continue through at least Saturday,
ahead of a cold front slated to move through Sunday. Highs this
afternoon will top out in the lower 90s in most areas under a
prominent lee trough and tighter pressure gradient. The low-
level thicknesses will approach values similar to Wed around
1418m, typical for July. Record high values today are likely to
be tied or broken at GSO/RDU (see climate section for more
details).

A shortwave passes overhead on Friday, with 60-70 dm height
falls. However, moisture and instability is rather lacking. As
such, rainfall chances are limited at best, with the most
favored area to see a trace or a few hundredths of an inch of
rain over the northern Piedmont to northern Coastal Plain.
Mostly, this upper-level wave will bring some mid-level clouds,
clearing out by late morning. The airmass is not as hot
tomorrow, with thicknesses about 10 m lower. As such, highs may
be a tad lower in the upper 80s to around 90, but this is still
well above normal.

The hottest day of the stretch may end up being this Saturday
as the pressure gradient tightens under a southwest flow, and
low- level thicknesses approach 1420-1424 m. Highs in the lower
90s area-wide are expected, again getting close to record highs.
Right now, FAY is most favored to break its record high of 93
set in 1941, but GSO/INT are certainly going to get close as
well.


KEY MESSAGE 3... A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring
scattered showers embedded within a stratiform rain band.
Conditions turn cooler early next week with patchy frost
possible Monday and Tuesday morning.

The core of a northern stream trough shifting through the PacNW
this afternoon will slide just south of the Hudson Bay Sat
night with its trough axis expected to traverse the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast Sun/Sun night. The trailing cold front will be
helped across the mountains and into the Carolinas by surface
high pressure over the ArkLaTex region as it migrates into the
Ohio Valley by Mon morning. The general consensus within the
medium range guidance suggests the front will progress across
central NC Sun morning into the early afternoon, which would be
diurnally unfavorable for showers/storms without any elevated
instability and stable/dry preceding air mass over the
Carolinas. The bulk of the precip appears to come from
anafrontal rain on the immediate backside of the front where
low-lvl FGEN and 60m H5 height falls in 12 hrs overlap a narrow
band of enhanced deep-layer moisture. Even so, disjointed lift
and low resonance time over a given area will keep precip amount
pretty meager (trace to 0.25").

Low-lvl thicknesses behind the front plummet nearly 100m and
bring noticeably cooler and slightly below normal temperatures,
a relief from the multiple days of unseasonably warm conditions.
A weakening pressure gradient and clearing skies Mon morning
may bring some patchy frost, mainly in isolated locations of the
eastern Piedmont. A better chance for patchy to areas of frost
will likely come on Tues morning with the surface high parked
over the Mid-Atlantic coast into the Carolinas, resulting in a
nearly optimal radiational cooling setup. Statistical guidance
from the ECMWF and long-range GFS suggest 32 to 38 degrees will
be common across the Piedmont and northern/central Coastal
Plain. If this forecast pattern continues, then a Frost Advisory
will likely be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period. Gusty southwest winds will continue through 23-00z
before becoming light and variable. The LLJ will strengthen
ahead of a trough and weak front tonight and result in marginal
LLWS, primarily at RDU and RWI. Weakening and decaying
convection along the front over the western Piedmont and
Foothills may bring a very light shower, 5-8 kft cigs, and
briefly gusty northwest winds to INT/GSO after midnight, but
confidence is too low in any restrictions to include in the 18z
TAFs.

Outlook: Northwest winds Fri will again veer to southwesterly
by Sat ahead of an approaching cold front, progged to shift
through central NC on Sun. Scattered showers, isolated
lightning, and brief vsby restrictions will be possible along
and behind the fropa. Immediately behind the front, northwest
winds will become gusty, 25 to 35 kts, for several hours before
relaxing Sun night into Mon morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
All-Time Records for April:

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930


Record High Temperatures:

April 16: KGSO: 88/2002 KRDU: 92/1941 KFAY: 94/2006
April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941
April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 16: KGSO: 66/2006 KRDU: 64/1912 KFAY: 69/1934
April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921
April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/AS
AVIATION...AS