Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

630
FXUS62 KRAH 220706
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
306 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Nothing appreciable

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

1) Much warmer, with Increased Fire Danger today

2) Warm and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms returning Saturday.
Higher chances of much needed rainfall expected late Monday or
Tuesday and again mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Much warmer, with Increased Fire Danger today

A low amplitude mid-level trough in nwly flow aloft will progress
into the cntl Appalachians this morning and across and offshore the
Middle Atlantic through early tonight. At the surface, an
accompanying frontal wave will track across and offshore the Middle
Atlantic, with a trailing frontal zone that will likely extend from
the Delmarva nwwd to the upr Great Lakes by 12Z Thu, and where it
will continue to waver for the rest of the week. The front will be
preceded by at least a couple of aggregate outflow boundaries
maintained by weak, high-based convection from the OH Valley to the
Virginias today.

To the south of the synoptic front and outflow, it will be
unseasonably warm and very dry over cntl NC, with temperatures in
the low-mid 80s F and with minimum RH in the upr teens to 25%. Wswly
surface winds will also strengthen and become gusty with daytime
heating, with sustained speeds generally 10-15 mph and with gusts in
the 20s mph. An increased risk of wildfires and fire spread will
result.

Some of the aforementioned weak, high-based convection, embedded
within a band of 7-10 thousand ft AGL-based altocumulus, may drift
across the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain this evening. The
strongly-heated and deeply-mixed boundary layer will conditionally
aid in strong, diabatically-cooled and accelerated wind gusts up to
40 mph under and near convection (from both evaporation and
sublimation given that the freezing level will likely be just below
LCL`s/cloud bases), with generally Trace amounts expected should any
precipitation overcome the sub-cloud layer and reach the surface.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Warm and dry conditions are expected Thursday and
Friday with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms returning
Saturday. Higher chances of much needed rainfall expected late
Monday or Tuesday and again mid-week.

Warm and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms returning Saturday.
Higher chances of much needed rainfall expected late Monday or
Tuesday and again mid-week.

A much needed increase in rainfall chances and reduction in
temperatures appears within the weekend and next week forecast.

The overall pattern this week over NC will feature a general WNW
flow aloft associated with ridging in the mid and upper levels, and
a WSW surface flow with weak high pressure off the SE coast. It will
not be as hot as in the past event has H5 heights remain in the 5700
to 5730m range. These heights are well below last weeks heat wave.
It will also remain dry into Saturday morning as the low level
moisture return is focused west of the Appalachians through that
time. Our surface dew points are expected to range in the 45-55
range. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 80s Thursday and
Friday.

Our first chance of much needed showers will come Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night as a weakening cold front tries to slip south
through the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Regardless, the
instability appears lacking for organized thunderstorms over our
region even with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s SE. The dew
points are forecast to remain in the 50s for the most part into
Sunday. QPF appears rather light for this initial front.

Weak high pressure is then expected to build down the eastern
seaboard Sunday into Monday. A progressive mid/upper trough should
move from the Plains toward the eastern seaboard early next week.
Again, the main focus for deep moisture return is forecast to
possibly remain just to our west in the TN and OH Valley regions
into the Appalachians with this progressively moving front. However,
any wave development may change that for the area, so stay tuned on
that potential.

This should be followed by additional and even better widespread
rain chances mid to late week as the mean long wave trough tries to
set up from the upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic in the longer term
(mid week and beyond). The Gulf and Atlantic would be more in play
and this should mean cooler and wetter conditions for our region
then and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

Wswly surface winds will strengthen and become gusty with daytime
heating today, ahead of a disturbance aloft and a related outflow
boundary maintained by weak, high-based convection from the OH
Valley to the Virginias. Some of that weak convection, embedded
within a band of 7-10 thousand ft AGL-based altocumulus atop a
strongly-heated and deeply-mixed boundary layer, may drift into the
vicinity of RWI with convective wind gusts up to 30-40 kts between
22Z-02Z.

Outlook: Increasing moisture into a frontal system that will move
across the region on Sat will provide a chance of rain/showers and
flight restrictions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/PWB
AVIATION...MWS