Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

579
FXUS62 KRAH 282323
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
723 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 716 PM Saturday...

* Increased Fire Danger statement issued for Sunday due to a
  combination of low relative humidity values and very dry fuels. A
  state-wide fire ban is also in place issued earlier today by the
  NC Forest Service. Outdoor burning is prohibited.

* Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 147 PM Saturday...

1) Increased fire danger remains in effect until 8 pm this evening.
There may be a fire danger risk on Sunday.

2) Widespread freezing conditions tonight-Sun morning, with a hard
freeze (ie. <28F) probable in typically colder, rural locations.

3) Increasing temperatures through mid-week ahead of the next
frontal system wavering through the region through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 147 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Increased fire danger remains in effect until 8 pm
this evening. There may be a fire danger risk on Sunday.

The increased fire danger remains in effect until 8 pm this evening
for all of central NC. Relative humidity values will hover in the
lower 20s over the western Piedmont and middle to upper 20s over the
remainder of the area until early evening. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph
will gradually diminish by the early evening hours. Good relative
humidity recovery is expected tonight, allowing the fire danger
statement to expire.

Tomorrow, relative humidity values will remain quite low, actually
lower than today, in the upper teens in the western Piedmont to the
mid to upper 20s elsewhere. However, wind gusts will only be in the
10-20 mph range, highest across the west, and developing late in the
day as return flow gradually returns. As such, a fire danger
statement may not be needed. But we will be reaching out to NCFS
regarding any potential statements, especially given the antecedent
dry conditions. More to follow later.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread freezing conditions tonight-Sun morning,
with a hard freeze (ie. < 28F) probable in typically colder, rural
locations.

No appreciable changes were made to the going forecast for tonight`s
lows across central NC. Cold high pressure will settle across the
lower Mid-Atlantic and North Carolina tonight and early Sunday. The
low-level thickness forecast to be in place are supportive of
widespread lower 30s, with a few locations in the typical cooler
spots of upper 20s of the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. The
NBM probability of 32 or lower is highest over the western Piedmont
and northern Coastal Plain, with only about a 10-20 percent chance
over the Triangle and Triad. Our going forecast matches quite well
with anticipated lows from the statistical guidance so no major
changes were made. Areas of frost are likely, particularly with any
lingering moisture/wetness from the rain.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Increasing temperatures through mid-week ahead of
the next frontal system wavering through the region through the
weekend.

As surface high pressure shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast,
southerly surface winds should return by Monday and continue through
mid-week. This will allow temperatures to return to about 15 to 20
degrees above normal by Wednesday. In terms of high temperatures,
this is seen by a return to the 70s on Monday, increasing to the low
to mid 80s on Wednesday. Lows during this timeframe will return to
the mid 50s to low 60s. A frontal system looks to approach and
waiver over the region from Wednesday through the weekend. This
means that temperatures from Thursday through Saturday are expected
to be cooler than previous days, but the timing and location of the
front each day will allow for some uncertainty in the temperature
forecast. Currently, the front looks to bisect our area on Thursday,
which would lead to highs in the upper 60s to low 70s north, to
upper 70s to low 80s south.

In terms of precipitation, each day Wednesday through Saturday will
have a chance of rain as the frontal boundary approaches the region
and then looks to waiver through the region before another front
will approach the region early next week. Rainfall is expected to
overall be light each day, with 50th percentiles of the GEFS and
European ensemble showing generally less than 1.5 inches of rain
total through Saturday night. However, the GEPS is suggesting that
over 2 inches of rain will be possible near the NC/VA border.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 147 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hour TAF period. Light
enely flow this evening will go calm overnight. Flow will turn more
ssely Sunday but sfc winds will remain light.  Otherwise expect
largely clear skies tonight with some passing mid to high level
cloudiness across the Piedmont Sunday afternoon. Additionally, light
showers along the sea-breeze may advect afternoon clouds into
KFAY/KRWI, but sub-VFR ceilings are not expected.

OUTLOOK: High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Tuesday
evening as high pressure shifts off the northeast coast. A
transition to a more unsettled weather pattern is expected mid-to-
late week as a series of disturbances will bring periodic sub-VFR
chances starting Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Helock
AVIATION...Luchetti/CA