Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

878
FXUS62 KRAH 061140
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
640 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* The Marginal Risk of severe storms today has expanded west to
  include the Triangle and along the US-1 corridor.

* Rainfall amounts are still expected to range from 0.25" to 1"
  across central NC. A localized swath of 1" to 2.5" is possible,
  with guidance suggesting the best chance along the US-1 corridor.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 108 AM Friday...

1) Showers and embedded storms will exist this morning through late
afternoon, with the risk of a few severe storms.

2) A dry stretch returns after today, though a pattern change may be
in the offing late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 108 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and embedded storms will exist this morning
through late afternoon, with the risk of a few severe storms.

A cold front will be pushing through the region today and tonight as
an area of low pressure tracks into the Lower Great Lakes. The main
batch of showers and embedded storms will be tied to an effective
pre-frontal moist axis. This boundary will track through during the
morning hours across the Piedmont and mid-late afternoon across the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain. The real cold front, bringing eventual
lows tonight into the 40s to low 50s, will not arrive until
overnight tonight.

Isolated showers and storms are present at the moment across the
western and southern Piedmont. Coverage and intensity is expected to
increase during the mid to late morning hours and continue into the
late afternoon before exiting into eastern NC/VA by early this
evening.

The severe weather threat today remains focused along and east of
the I-95 corridor, along and south of the pre-frontal moist axis.
The HRRR/RRFS suggest MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg in this zone, within
a band of 35-40 kts of deep-layer shear. SPC, however, has expanded
the Marginal Risk to include not just the Coastal Plain and
Sandhills, but also the Triangle. This westward expansion of the
threat is likely tied to subtle variations in the position/timing of
the moist axis, shifting the instability axis as far west as Wake
County. Most guidance depicts the instability axis straddling the US
Hwy 1 corridor by midday, thereby confining surface-based
instability to mainly areas along/east of US-1. Proximity soundings
from the RAP/RRFS indicate this same pattern, with more elevated
storms along/west of US-1 and more surface-based convection east of
that line. The main threats are damaging winds, though we certainly
cannot rule out a few brief short-track tornadoes from transient
supercells within line breaks, especially for areas along and east
of I-95. The main timing for severe weather is between 10 AM and 4
PM, indicating a slightly faster trend in the latest 00z guidance.

There has been a notable trend in the QPF amounts and footprint in
the last few runs of the HRRR/REFS. Rainfall totals are presently
expected to range from a quarter inch to around an inch. However,
localized totals between 1" and 2.5" will be possible, especially
along the south and eastward moving moist convergence axis. The
HRRR/REFS are painting this footprint along the US-1 corridor,
including portions of the Triangle. This would be some very
beneficial rainfall given the dry stretch we have had these past
several weeks.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A dry stretch returns after today, though a pattern
change may be in the offing late next week.

A dry stretch of weather is expected to return after today. Much of
the medium-range ensemble guidance shows northwest flow at mid-
levels into early next week. Cool high pressure building in this
weekend could bring some patchy frost Sunday morning with middle to
upper 30s expected. Thereafter, a warming trend looks to take hold
with highs again some 5-10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s to
low 70s come the early to middle part of next week.

While the dry stretch looks to hold into at least the middle of next
week, ensemble guidance is highlighting a potential deep and potent
trough digging into the OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic region Thursday
into next weekend. There is presently large spread in the trough
position, thereby leading to low confidence in precipitation
chances. However, some AI-models are showing a more favorable storm
track for rainfall. Some solutions also indicate 850-mb temperatures
dropping below freezing late next week, favoring below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Friday...

Adverse aviation conditions are expected for most of the day today
including flight restrictions and a chance of thunderstorms before
improving weather begins to arrive this evening and continue into
Saturday.

Variable flight categories are noted across central NC this morning
with many locations reporting MVFR to IFR conditions mainly from
lower clouds and scattered showers. The coverage and intensity of
showers and storms will increase significantly as an area of
showers/storms exits SC and blossoms across central NC during the
late morning and especially during the early and mid afternoon hours
before lifting northeast and exiting the region late this afternoon.

The worst conditions with widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected in the Triad (KINT/KGSO) from 14 to 18Z
with VFR conditions likely after 19Z. In the Sandhills and Triangle
(KFAY/KRDU) the worst conditions with widespread showers and storms
are expected from 16 to 20Z with improving conditions likely after
22Z. Finally across the Coastal Plain (KRWI) the worse conditions
are apt from 18 to 22Z. A period of lingering low stratus is
possible this evening across the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and
Coastal Plain before a cold front moves across the area late tonight
and clears skies out. Fair weather and VFR conditions are expected
across the area by daybreak Saturday.

Southerly winds across the area this morning at 5 to 10 kts, will
become southwest to westerly by the late morning to midday hours and
then switch to northwesterly at 5 to 10 kts by early to mid
afternoon and continue into tonight. Winds will be gusty and
possibly strong in thunderstorms.

Outlook: Any lingering stratus or fog across the Coastal Plain at
daybreak on Saturday will quickly give way to VFR conditions. Fair
weather and VFR conditions are then expected area wide through early
next week.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...Blaes