Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

357
FXUS62 KRAH 201138
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
640 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

* Confidence in a significant weekend winter storm, and very cold
  weather into next week, continues to increase.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

1) Very cold temperatures are expected today and tonight. Some
moderation in temperatures expected Wednesday, but especially
Thursday.

2) A major winter storm is possible this weekend.

3) Extremely cold temperatures are likely Saturday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Very cold temperatures are expected through tonight
with moderation mid-week.

Cold high pressure over the Central Plains will settle into the TN
valley today, then be centered over central NC tonight into early
Wednesday. Very cold temperatures will be felt with highs today in
the upper 30s to mid 40s N to S. Lows tonight will drop into the
teens to lower 20s.

Temperatures will start to moderate Wednesday when highs reach 45-
50. This moderating trend will continue and peak on Thursday with a
breezy SW wind aiding the warm-up. Lows Wednesday night will be in
the 30s with highs well into the 50s to near 60 expected Thursday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A major winter storm is possible this weekend.

Synoptic overview: A very strong Arctic cold front expected to move
through the CWA late Fri or Fri evening will introduce very cold air
into the region starting Fri night and continuing through Mon, as
the high center tracks from the Upper Midwest across the S Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast and St Lawrence Valley
through Sun (see cold details below). A corresponding 850 mb cold
front will also move S through the area Fri night then stall and
hold over SC and SE NC through Sat, potentially then lifting NW back
into central NC as low-mid level waves track along it. A weak
surface low is expected to develop over the central Gulf coast late
Sat, but the main player should be a second low that forms just off
Savannah GA late Sat and deepens as it tracks NE along the Carolina
coast Sat night through Sun.

Models: The latest deterministic models and ensemble members
overwhelmingly show a period of some sort of wintry precip over all
of central NC this weekend, with accumulations peaking Sat aftn
through Sun morning. But differences do remain regarding timing and
p-types, and the latter prevents us from providing a lot of
specifics at this time as to the kind(s) of wintry precip that will
dominate. Wintry weather in central NC essentially requires three
things: sufficient moisture, sufficient lift, and sufficient cold
air, both at the surface and (for snow) aloft as well. In short, the
chances that we see all three factors here is growing. Model-
projected incoming PWs of 150%-225% of normal seem quite plausible
given the strong influx of both Pacific and Gulf moisture. Strong
forcing for ascent appears likely at multiple levels, including mid
level DPVA as a SoCal low merges with a polar stream trough over the
S-central CONUS (although differences here do influence timing of
this system`s impacts), upper jet-induced divergence aloft, and
intense low level isentropic upglide. Finally, confidence is fairly
high that we`ll have plenty of low level sub-freezing air with a
steady feed of lower dewpoints from the north to help counteract the
latent heat release from the freezing process. It`s difficult to say
at this time if we`ll have a pure Miller A or B cyclogenesis
pattern, but it does look like the coastal low could deepen quickly
and become the primary low. The key could be how far N any warm air
aloft can get, as that will influence p-types, and the cyclogenesis
pattern will help drive the width and location of corridors of
predominant p-type. The NBM mean trend in its last several
iterations has been for steadily greater snowfall accumulation over
the entire CWA, with the highest values still over the N half.
Whatever does fall and accrue (whether freezing precip or snow)
could be significant and may have lingering effects well into the
next work week. We will continue to closely monitor this potential
event. -GIH


KEY MESSAGE 3... Extremely cold temperatures are likely Saturday
through Monday.

A frigid Arctic high with a likely 1045-1050 mb central pressure
will pour into the Midwest and Great Lakes behind the front. With
low level thicknesses expected to drop to 1250 mb or possibly lower
and with the air mass sourced straight out of the Arctic, the
overnight lows (especially Sat night through Mon night) may approach
or exceed daily records, and daily highs may come close to record
low daily maxima as well, especially if we have a snowpack. A Cold
Weather Advisory or Extreme Cold Watch or Warning may be needed. See
climate section below. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected over the 24 hr TAF period.

Outlook: VFR should prevail most of Wed, Thu, and Fri, though can`t
not rule out a stray shower in the Triad early Thu. A potential
winter storm could bring a wintry mix and adverse aviation
conditions Sat into Sun. Confidence on details are low but
increasing.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Temperatures:

January 26:
KRDU: 10/1940
KFAY: 14/1963

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Hartfield
Aviation...Badgett/Luch