Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

448
FXUS62 KRAH 020804
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
304 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Not as chilly, or wet, as previously forecast

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

1) Noticeably cooler, with light rain mainly across the nrn Piedmont
and nrn Coastal Plain today, and drizzle or light rain over the nw
Piedmont tonight

2) Much above normal temperatures expected Thursday through Sunday,
with near record breaking high and high minimum temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Noticeably cooler, with light rain mainly across
the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain today, and drizzle or light
rain over the nw Piedmont tonight

A low amplitude shortwave trough now extending from IL to the Mid-
South will progress generally ewd and across and offshore the srn
Middle Atlantic through this evening, with the srn periphery of an
associated precipitation shield that will only glance mainly the nrn
half of cntl NC with light rain. Deterministic and ensemble model
data have displayed in the past 24 hours a marked nwd shift with the
footprint of that precipitation.

At the surface, a now 1038 mb Arctic high centered over Lake Ontario
will remain favorably strong and located for classical cold air
damming, as it progresses across the nrn Middle Atlantic and New
England today. In the absence of any appreciable precipitation and
diabatic influence at the latitude of most of cntl NC, however, it
will be (mainly) dry CAD for most of the day, with a transition
toward hybrid CAD as the high progresses offshore and light rain
produces at least weak diabatic influence across nrn zones this
afternoon-evening. Low-level isentropic lift/WAA, and 925 mb FGEN,
will then probably deepen the associated saturated low-levels and
produce periods of light rain or drizzle overnight-Tue morning over
the nw Piedmont. Rainfall amounts will be light areawide, with
perhaps a tenth of an inch over the far nrn Piedmont and nrn coastal
Plain and a Trace to just a few hundredths otherwise and elsewhere.
Given the lack of precipitation and diabatic cooling influence,
temperatures today will be milder than previously forecast, 45-50F
across nrn zones, and 50-60F across srn ones.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Much above normal temperatures expected Thursday
through Sunday, with near record breaking high and high minimum
temperatures

Model agreement is quite good that strong mid level ridging will
build over and just off the Southeast U.S coast through the mid to
late week, a function of a deep closed low digging over NW Mexico.
Consensus is that our daily low level thicknesses each morning will
be around 60 m above normal starting Fri and persisting through the
weekend. This suggests high temps roughly 20 deg F above normal,
with at least partial sunshine, which equates to daily highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with Fri likely the warmest day. Overnight
lows are forecast to be even more above normal, by some 20-30
degrees, in the upper 50s to low 60s. These numbers will be
generally just under record high values, but given the longwave
pattern, later temperature forecasts could increase, possibly
threatening these records.

There is a chance of some spotty showers late week into the weekend,
however the lapse rates aloft will be tempered by the warm mid
levels, and the surface ridging extending across the Southeast
states should limit influx of Gulf-source moisture, thus the overall
coverage of showers is expected to be low, isolated to widely
scattered at most.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 AM Monday...

Nely surface winds will continue to gust into the upr teens to mid
20s kts at times this morning, behind a backdoor cold front that
moved swwd across cntl NC Sun evening. Otherwise, initially VFR
conditions will yield to MVFR ones in ceilings later today, as lift
occurs across the front and atop high pressure that will ridge
across the region. A little light rain will also be possible at
Piedmont sites and RWI, and especially points nwd into VA.

Outlook: Continued nely flow will favor the development or lowering
of ceilings into IFR range tonight-Tue morning, with only a slow
transition through MVFR over the Piedmont through the day Tue and a
quicker lifting and scattering to VFR at FAY and RWI. Stratus and/or
fog will then be favored at ern sites (ie. FAY and RWI) Wed and Thu
morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

March 5:
KGSO: 81/1967
KRDU: 83/1967

March 6:
KGSO: 78/2022
KRDU: 82/1967
KFAY: 86/1918

March 7:
KGSO: 81/1974
KRDU: 85/1974
KFAY: 84/1961


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 6:
KGSO: 64/1967
KRDU: 64/1967
KFAY: 65/1961

March 7:
KGSO: 63/1956
KRDU: 64/1956
KFAY: 65/1961

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/GIH/KC
AVIATION...MWS