Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

239
FXUS62 KRAH 171819
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
219 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 216 PM Friday...

* Nothing appreciable.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 216 PM Friday...

1) The heat wave continues through Saturday. The fire danger
persists but currently no headlines are anticipated.

2) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a chance of light
rain and a few embedded showers, with temperatures then turning
cooler with patchy frost possible Monday and Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 216 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The heat wave continues through Saturday. The fire
danger persists but currently no headlines are anticipated.

An upper-level disturbance is presently moving toward the coast.
This same shortwave was responsible for a tenth of an inch of rain
or so over the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain this
morning. The system as it exits through the afternoon, height rises
will fuel temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees,
warmest in our southern areas. We may be just a few degrees shy of
records, but it will nonetheless be close.

The warmest day of the stretch is still expected tomorrow with
widespread lower 90s. Anomalous ridging and return southwest flow of
15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph will promote this heat. It is quite
possible we tie or break records at GSO/FAY. A strong trough moving
into the Great Lakes and OH valley will approach late Sat night.
Rain showers are possible over the NW Piedmont by early Sun, though
most activity will hold off until mid-morning to early afternoon Sun.

Regarding the fire danger threat, meteorological conditions remain
favorable for fire spread through the weekend, and even post-frontal
early next week Monday. Winds are relatively light today, but RH
levels dip once again into the 20s. Winds and RH will be more
favorable Sat, with mid 20s RH and gusts to 25 mph. SPC has much of
the state highlighted for fire danger through Monday. We coordinated
with NCFS yesterday and presently no headlines are anticipated.
However, that does not mean people should let their guard down. A
burn ban remains in place and fires may start and spread very easily
due to the very dry fuels. Additional coordination may be needed
later this weekend for possible an increased threat on Mon when NW
gusts combine with RH levels below 20 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold frontal passage on Sunday will bring a
chance of light rain and a few embedded showers, with temperatures
then turning cooler with patchy frost possible Monday and Tuesday
morning.

Models are in good agreement bringing the cold frontal passage
through central NC fairly early on Sunday. Mid-level height falls,
and sfc forcing should be maximized to our north. Given the early
morning passage, this system will likely produce scattered pockets
of primarily stratiform rain. QPF still looks minimal,
unfortunately, with possibly only a few hundreds of an inch for much
of central NC(highest amounts up to a tenth possible across the far
northeast).  Expect a little gustiness (20 to 30 mph) ahead of and
behind the front on Sunday with most locations cooling off into
lower to upper 70s.

High pressure will build in Monday with high temps cooling off into
the upper 60s/lower 70s. Overnight lows may dip down into frost (and
possibly freeze) levels Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some of
the statistical guidance is quite chilly in our traditionally cooler
spots.

After another cooler day on Tuesday, ridging will return with highs
pushing mid to upper 80s by end of the week. Unfortunately rain
chances look fairly limited until closer to the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 24 hours TAF period.
Light northwest to westerly winds this afternoon and diurnal cumulus
around 5-9 kft will continue through early evening. Surface winds
will become light to calm with only cloud cover coming from high
clouds spilling over the mountains.

Outlook: A strong cold front is expected to shift across the
Carolinas Sun morning and bring gusty winds (20-30 kts), light post-
frontal rain, and potential for isolated/scattered showers along the
front (most probable at RWI and FAY). Brief sub-VFR cigs will be
possible along and immediately behind the cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
All-Time Records for April:

KGSO: 95 on 4/28/1915
KRDU: 95 on 4/23/1980 and 4/18/1896
KFAY: 96 on 4/12/1930


Record High Temperatures:

April 17: KGSO: 90/1967 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 92/1941
April 18: KGSO: 90/1976 KRDU: 95/1896 KFAY: 93/1941

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 17: KGSO: 63/2002 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 66/1921
April 18: KGSO: 66/1909 KRDU: 63/1941 KFAY: 67/2002

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Kren
AVIATION...AS