Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

086
FXUS62 KRAH 051045
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Nothing appreciable

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Friday...

1) Hot, but with low humidity, and dry through Sunday

2) Largely diurnally driven convection possible each day through mid
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot, but with low humidity, and dry through Sunday

A mid-level anticyclone over the TN and lwr OH Valleys will drift
slowly across the Southeast and reach the FL peninsula and nern Gulf
by the end of the weekend.

At the surface and through the same time, a continental/Canadian-
sourced high now just offshore the Carolinas will drift toward
Bermuda while continuing to extend wwd and into the South Atlantic
states, while a trough will sharpen in the lee of the srn and cntl
Appalachians and precede pre-frontal convection and outflow that may
drift from VA Sun to nrn NC by Sun evening and a backdoor, synoptic
cold front that will probably settle across cntl NC on Mon.

Subsidence and sswly low-level flow related to the sub-tropical
ridging, and also increasingly wly/downslope flow over NC by Sun,
will yield hot temperatures throughout the period, hottest Sun. Min
RH will remain quite low, however, and mostly in the 20s percent,
owing to unseasonably low mixed dewpoints each afternoon that will
increase about 5 F each day, from upr 40s to around 50 F today to
upr 50s to around 60 F by Sun. Heat index values will consequently
be lower than the ambient air temperature and well shy of heat-
related headlines. Experimental Heat Risk is nonetheless forecast to
increase from Minor-Moderate today to Moderate-Major by Sun, with
impacts mainly to those sensitive to heat.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Largely diurnally driven convection possible each
day through mid week

Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will amplify from the Southeast to the
Great Lakes Sun/Sun night, situated between a departing s/w clipping
the mid-Atlantic coast and another lifting nwd across the Plains/MS
Valley. The ridge will gradually break down through mid-week as the
s/w to the west progresses ewd across the upr MS Valley and Great
Lakes. The ridge should once again strengthen to the west as the s/w
slides sewd from the Great Lakes across the Northeast and mid-
Atlantic Thu/Fri. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will slide
sswwd across the area Sun night/Mon. Guidance varies wrt the
strength and location of the high as it settles sewd along/off the
mid-Atlantic/Carolina coast Tue/Tue night and how much/long the
high/ridge lingers. Generally expect the high to shift offshore by
Wed/Wed night, but linger somewhere between the East Coast and
Bermuda through Thu. While there is still uncertainty wrt the
chances and coverage of convection, there will be at least a slight
chance for largely diurnally driven convection each day. The highest
chances will be Mon and Thu with the shortwaves clipping the region.
As for temperatures, Tue will be the coolest day, with highs in the
mid/upr 80s, then moderating back into the low/mid 90s by Thu.
Little overnight relief, with lows generally in the low/mid 60s
Mon/Tue and upr 60s/low 70s Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

Dry air related to high pressure just offshore the Carolinas will
maintain VFR conditions and direct across cntl NC light swly surface
flow that may occasionally gust into the mid teens kts this
afternoon.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front will settle into cntl NC with both a
chance of showers/storms and a band of post-frontal, MVFR ceilings
late Sun night through Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...


Record High Temperatures:


June 7: KGSO: 98/1925 KRDU: 100/2008 KFAY: 99/2008

June 8: KRDU: 101/2008 KFAY: 101/2008


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 7: KGSO: 73/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 75/2008

June 8: KGSO: 73/2008 KRDU: 75/1899 KFAY: 74/2008


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/KCP
AVIATION...MWS