Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

231
FXUS62 KRAH 051024
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
624 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes from previous forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Monday...

1) Drier today with decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures.

2) A dry week is expected. Temperatures will average close to normal
for early October through mid-week, then trend above normal late in
the week. The next chance of rain possibly next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Drier today with decreasing clouds and warmer
temperatures.

Early morning water vapor imagery shows continued southwesterly flow
across the Carolinas. A deepening upper low over Quebec is drawing
drier air into the western Appalachians with broad northwesterly
flow extending back all the way to the northern Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is making its way through the Ohio Valley with
surface high pressure building southward from Alberta CA. Meanwhile
across NC, the extensive cloud cover that has been locked in place
since Saturday is in the process of breaking up and eroding. While
there is no shortage of high cloud cover within the broad
southwesterly flow aloft, the thicker/lower/more stratiform ceilings
are quickly eroding across the western Piedmont this morning.

For the remainder of the early morning hours, a weak wave moving
through upstate SC could bring a stray sprinkle or shower to the
Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain, although most ob sites are only
showing trace amounts (if that). Given relatively drier air to the
north, most of this precip should remain on the southern fringes of
our CWA before moving offshore after daybreak. There could be some
patchy fog north of this area of precip although given extensive
cloud cover, widespread dense fog isn`t expected.

By late morning/early afternoon, we should see a marked reduction in
cloud cover as the Ohio Valley cold front approaches the area and
broad northwesterly/downslope flow takes hold across NC. This will
also allow temps to warm well into the mid/upper 70s this afternoon
before falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight. A reinforcing
surge of drier air will arrive late tonight, with dewpoints falling
into the mid 40s by daybreak Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A dry week is expected. Temperatures will average
close to normal for early October through mid-week, then trend above
normal late in the week. The next chance of rain possibly Saturday
and Sunday.

Much drier air associated with surface high pressure building from
the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states will bring mainly
clear/sunny conditions Tuesday into Wednesday night. Lows will dip
into the 40s Tuesday night and around 50 Wednesday night. Highs will
be rather cool in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Reinforcing dry air associated with another high pressure will
spread into the region late Thursday and Friday. The temperatures
will most likely trend into the upper 70s to lower 80s late week,
with lows in the 50s.

The next chance of rain appears to be possibly over the weekend.
There continues to be quite a bit of model spread with the potential
Gulf to SE United States system, with the EC ensemble currently
preferred, which may obviously change with time. As of right now,
the EC depicts higher rain chances Saturday afternoon into Sunday,
with the higher POP in the south and east as is the low pressure
track.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 624 AM Monday...

Fog has avoided the TAF sites for the most part, although there have
been a few brief instances of IFR/LIFR at INT as well as GSO. Given
this, I`ll keep an hour or two TEMPO in INT/GSO to cover this
possibility but remove it elsewhere. The remainder of the forecast
thinking remains on track, as ceilings should gradually improve this
morning before returning to VFR area-wide before 18Z.

Late tonight as we get a reinforcing shot of drier air from the
north we could see a period of increased northeasterly winds around
25kts just off the surface. Since the LLWS appears marginal in
magnitude I`ll leave it out of the forecast.

Outlook: VFR weather expected at all sites through at least Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins/Badgett
AVIATION...Leins