Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

597
FXUS62 KRAH 172257
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
657 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Increased Fire Danger for Thursday across all of central NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

1) Dangerous heat likely on Thursday for all but the western
Piedmont.

2) A conditional threat for strong to severe storms capable of
producing damaging straight-line wind gusts remains Thursday
afternoon and evening, with greatest chances for rain late Thursday
night into Friday.

3) Increased Fire Danger on Thursday as strong gusty winds and hot
temperatures overlap with critically dry, drought-cured fuels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerous heat likely on Thursday for all but the
western Piedmont.

A surface cold front will gradually approach our area from the NNW
Thu, while the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur (likely to be a
depression or remnant low by that time) tracks across central MS and
AL toward GA/SC. Ahead of these systems, a hot southwest flow will
pump above-normal thicknesses into central NC. Readings about 10-15
m above normal combined with deep mixing tapping into anomalous
warmth aloft (including 850 mb temps projected to be 18.5-21 C,
above the 90th percentile) and decent insolation for much of the day
will push temps up well into the 90s. The western Piedmont including
the Triad should see low-mid 90s for highs (especially with an
earlier arrival time of high clouds blowing off of upstream
convection), but the Triangle to Laurinburg and points east should
see highs in the mid 90s to around 100. RH values should be on the
relatively low side but should still yield max heat indices in the
100-104F range, and the NWS experimental Heat Risk shows a few areas
reaching the Major category (level 3 of 4), suggesting that this
heat is not only unusual for this time of year, it is also
correlated with high levels of heat illnesses according to
historical CDC heat-health data, indicating that heat-health impacts
are possible among all populations, especially those without
adequate hydration and cooling. But given some uncertainty regarding
the timing of upstream cloudiness spreading into our area and any
subsequent detrimental effects on heating, will hold off on a heat
advisory for now, but one may be needed after further analysis
tonight.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A conditional threat for strong to severe storms
capable of producing damaging straight-line wind gusts remains
Thursday afternoon and evening, with greatest chances for rain late
Thursday night into Friday.

A scattered line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to
move across central North Carolina Thursday afternoon/evening, well
in advance of the cold front that will move through the area on
Friday. Between 1000 and 2000 J/kg of CAPE will be present, enhanced
by the very hot air mass that will bring surface temperatures
between 95 and 100 degrees. However, the upper-level jet streak will
remain well to the north, along the United States/Canadian border,
and it appears that effective shear across North Carolina will be
less than 30 kt, which should limit how well the storms are able to
organize locally. All of North Carolina remains under a marginal
(level 1 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk, with a higher risk to the
north over MD, DE, WV, and VA. The primary threat locally will be
damaging wind gusts occurring during the late afternoon and evening
hours.

The greater chance for rain will come later Thursday with the
arrival of the cold front, but the addition of moisture from
Tropical Storm Arthur will be the primary driver for precipitation.
The heaviest rainfall associated with Arthur should remain well to
the south of the area, but locations south of US-64 could receive
one-quarter to one-half inch of rain after midnight Thursday into
Friday. Coverage of showers and storms will become a bit more spotty
Friday , but up to another quarter inch of rain will be possible,
greatest to the south and east. Overall, between Thursday and
Friday, locations near the VA/NC border may only receive a tenth of
an inch, while southern counties could receive up to an inch of rain.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Increased Fire Danger on Thursday as strong gusty
winds and hot temperatures overlap with critically dry, drought-
cured fuels.

The stout SW winds out ahead of the approaching surface front (from
the NNW) and approaching dissipating tropical system (from the WSW)
are expected to peak at sustained values of 15-20 mph, with frequent
gusts as high as 20-35 mph expected as deep mixing taps into strong
winds just aloft. While RH values are expected to be mostly over 35%
and thus above typical critical thresholds, the ongoing severe-to-
exceptional drought and exceptionally dry fuels combined with these
gusty winds will lead to an increased risk of fire ignition and
adverse fire behavior over much of NC Thu, from just inland to just
east of the Foothills. This risk will be amplified by erratic and
shifting winds and gusts in and near storms. After coordination with
the NC Forest Service and their field operations staff, have issued
a fire danger statement for Thu to address the increased fire
danger.

&&

.AVIATION /00z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 657 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will continue through the remainder of the evening
and early overnight hours. Weak pre-frontal moist advection could
support the development of some MVFR stratocu early Thursday morning
but this should mix out with VFR conditions returning by mid
morning. After that, expect shower and thunderstorm development
first across the western Piedmont, then gradually shifting eastward
by the end of the TAF period. Based on 12Z HREF I elected to
introduce PROB30`s for thunder starting at 20Z at INT/GSO, 21Z at
RDU/FAY, and closer to 22Z at RWI. Gusty winds and reduced vsbys can
be expected with the strongest storms. Showers and storms are likely
to persist through the end of the TAF period.

Otherwise, expect breezy southwesterly winds throughout the day,
with occasional mid afternoon gusts around 25kts.

Looking beyond 00Z Fri: A better chance of rain and isolated storms
will arrive late Thu evening lasting into early Fri as tropical
moisture crosses the Southeast states, and sub-VFR conditions may
occur with this activity, best chance at FAY. VFR conditions should
then dominate from late Fri through at least Sun, with another
chance of sub-VFR stratus Sun night into early Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015  KFAY: 102/1944


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 18: KGSO: 73/2018  KRDU: 77/2025  KFAY: 76/2017

June 19: KGSO: 77/1970  KRDU: 73/2025  KFAY: 77/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/Green
AVIATION...Leins/Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH