Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS62 KRAH 221912
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
312 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Higher confidence of some straight-line wind damage later this
  afternoon and evening tied to storms, mainly in the northern and
  western Piedmont.

* A severe threat has been introduced for portions of the Coastal
  Plain Tue.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 135 PM Monday...

1) There remains a Slight Risk of severe storms into this evening,
with the greatest threat generally across the northwest and northern
Piedmont. A severe risk is also in place for eastern areas Tue.

2) Excessively hot weather is possible again on Friday-Saturday and
especially by Sunday-Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 135 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... There remains a Slight Risk of severe storms into
this evening, with the greatest threat generally across the
northwest and northern Piedmont. A severe risk is also in place for
eastern areas Tue.

Not much has changed for the severe risk later this afternoon and
evening across central NC. A Slight Risk of severe storms remains in
place for much of the region. The one exception is a Marginal in our
far southern and eastern zones.

A cold front exists to our northwest today, stretching from the OH
valley into the TN valley, in connection with an area of low
pressure moving into the lower OH valley. Although convection may
fire in isolated locations this afternoon, it appears based on
recent guidance that storms will more likely generate along a lee
trough over the mountains and Foothills of NC, then congealing
perhaps along a cold pool as they reach the Piedmont later this
afternoon and evening. Timing appears similar to what was discussed
in the earlier discussion, roughly 4 to 10 PM this evening, although
subtle timing differences remain. Regardless, our confidence is
somewhat higher for some damaging straight-line winds with these
storms for a few reasons. A large area of DCAPE from 1000-1300 J/kg
will be present to enhance downdraft wind gusts. The instability of
1200-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE combined with 25-30 kts of deep shear also
increases our confidence. Similar to our earlier briefing, the main
damaging wind threat should be across the northern and western
Piedmont, mainly US-1 westward. A secondary threat of hail also
exists, primarily with initial storm cores. This hail threat should
quickly transition to mainly wind by the evening hours along a more
defined cold pool. Storms may weaken or dissipate south and east of
the Triangle as energy remains more favored to the west. A Marginal
Risk of excessive rainfall is still in place across the NW Piedmont,
but overall flash flood threat appears low outside of the typical
urban and poor drainage areas.

The actual surface cold front will be just to our west by Tue
morning along the southern Appalachians. Upstream convection
currently across the TN valley is tied to an MCV. This MCV is
progged by the guidance to move across our area during the day Tue,
along the leading edge of the cold front. There still remains a bit
of uncertainty on the track of this MCV, with some high-res guidance
tracking it as far north as southeastern VA, while others bring it
across the eastern Piedmont, Triangle, and Coastal Plain of central
NC. Regardless, there does remain a conditional severe risk between
the late morning and afternoon hours of Tue, mainly along and east
of US-1. Right now, SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for portions
of the northern Coastal Plain. The front should move through Tue
evening, favoring a drying trend Tue night and Wed.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Excessively hot weather is possible again on Friday-
Saturday and especially by Sunday-Monday.

A strong ridge will build and strengthen across the Deep South and
Carolinas from Friday into Monday. This will bring hot conditions to
central NC with gradually increasing temperatures. Forecast highs on
Friday are in the mid-to-upper-90s and by Saturday and Sunday, we
are expecting highs in the mid-90s to around 100. Lows will mainly
be in the lower-to-mid-70s. This is resulting in 50-85%
probabilities of at least Major HeatRisk from the Triangle south and
east on Friday and Saturday and everywhere by Sunday and Monday.
Confidence decreases slightly by Monday as a backdoor front may try
to approach from the NE, but otherwise the heat will continue. The
one saving grace is humidity doesn`t look overly oppressive during
the period, with dew points in the mid-to-upper-60s. Still, heat
indices approaching 105 will be possible from the Triangle south and
east especially by Sunday, and Heat Advisories may be needed.

&&

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Monday...

The main forecast challenge in the near-term will be the development
of scattered showers and storms along a lee trough over western NC.
Timing for storms based on recent high-res guidance is largely in
the 20z to 02z time period. The HREF ensemble indicates the highest
storm probabilities across the northern terminals of GSO, INT, RDU
and perhaps RWI. As storms track southeast, they may weaken or
dissipate in the vicinity of FAY. As such, we left out thunder at
FAY. We did increase the wind gust potential at GSO/INT from the
prior forecast package given a relatively high DCAPE environment,
and some agreement in wind gusts from the 12z HRRR and NAM-NEST.

Convection this evening should weaken tonight and overnight, and
widespread sub-VFR conditions are not expected. However, a remnant
MCV may bring IFR/MVFR stratus mainly across GSO/INT and perhaps
RDU/FAY Tue morning. Otherwise, scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop late morning to early afternoon Tue along the
MCV and ahead of a cold front. For now, given the uncertainty, opted
for showers, mainly across the eastern terminals.

Outlook: Storms may linger into early Tue evening across the eastern
terminals. Dry VFR conditions are expected late Tue through Thu. A
return to convective chances is favored Fri-Sat with another frontal
system, as well as the potential for early morning stratus late in
the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022

June 25: KRDU: 100/1952

June 26: KFAY: 101/1951

June 27: KFAY: 102/1998


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024

June 25: KFAY: 75/1952

June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 77/2024 KFAY: 76/1997

June 27: KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Danco
AVIATION...Kren