Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

362
FXUS62 KRAH 140820
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong Arctic cold front will move southeast through the area
today. Frigid high pressure will build over the region Monday, then
move to our south Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Sunday...

* A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all of central NC from
  Sun evening to mid morning Mon, for wind chills as low as 3F-10F.
* Sustained winds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 25-35 mph expected
  this morning through this evening.
* Light rain possible through 13Z today along and ahead of the
  front.

As of 07Z, the cold front was crossing the Appalachians. Scattered
pockets of light rain were seen on radar along and just ahead of the
front.  The front and light rain are expected to sweep across
central NC between 10Z and 13Z today, followed by a rapid change in
sfc wind to NW along with increase in speeds to 10-20kt with gusts
up to 30kt.  Skies will clear from NW to SE as winds turn to a
downsloping NW direction along with drier and colder air rushing
into central NC from the N and NW. High temps today will occur
between now and 10Z, then temps will actually fall through the 30s
during the sunny daytime hours, and continue to plummet tonight with
readings dropping into the teens. The wind will make it feel even
worse with wind chill values plungING through the day, reaching the
single digits in many areas by early evening, supporting the cold
weather advisory starting at 6 PM and running through Mon mid
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

* Continued cold Tues morning, but warming trend expected Tues
  through Thurs night.

* Forecast confidence remains low for Thurs into Fri morning with
  our next precipitation chances.

A highly anomalous ~1040mb area of surface high pressure will be
positioned over the southern/central Appalachians Mon morning will
broaden as it spills across the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
into Tues morning. A weak pressure gradient and relatively favorable
surface high location Mon night into Tues morning should support
favorable conditions for excellent radiational cooling, especially
with Mon afternoon dew points still in the single digits. However, a
pocket of mid-upper level moisture shifting through the Ohio Valley
Mon night will likely become orographically enhanced as it
progresses east of the Appalachians and over the Mid-Atlantic after
midnight. The thickness and areal extent will likely drive the
temperatures into Tues morning. Latest forecast of mostly low 20s to
upper teens remains in line with general consensus among the latest
statistical guidance, but if the cloud cover is thinner than
anticipated, then mostly mid/upper teens would be possible with
urban areas around 20 degrees.

A compact shortwave shifting across the Great Lakes and Northeast
Thurs into Fri will be embedded within predominantly zonal flow
aloft and will drive our next precipitation chances. Amplitude and
speed of this wave remains highly uncertain with this wave with an
added complication of southern stream influence and/or phasing with
the northern stream wave. Forcing for ascent is quite weak as the
best H5 height falls, from an ensemble mean approach, will likely
occur north of central NC over the northern Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast with weakening 700 and 850mb WAA spreading into the Mid-
Atlantic. This pattern will likely not support any
significant/hazardous precipitation with forecast rainfall amounts
of less than or equal to 0.10".

It is worth noting an alternative scenario which is primarily being
driven by the ECMWF and its ensemble members. This forecast system
suggests a more amplified shortwave and perhaps a brief phasing with
the southern stream jet over the eastern CONUS. This would result in
stronger horizontal WAA and development of weak MUCAPE ahead of the
approaching cold front and support the potential for higher rainfall
totals. This solution is considered an outlier among 00z guidance,
but worth monitoring for the threat of stronger wind gusts and
moderate to heavy rainfall in addition to lightning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 AM Sunday...

Through 06Z Monday... MVFR cigs and patchy light rain will spread
west to east across central NC over the next few hours ahead of the
cold front.  Then the front will cross central NC between 10-13Z
today, quickly followed by improving cigs but a rapid increase in
winds in the wake of the front. Winds will become NW behind the
front with speeds of 13-25kts and gusts up to 30kts which will last
during the entire daylight hours. We`ll see the gust diminish after
sunset, but speeds will remain 10-15kt overnight.

Outlook: VFR conditions appear likely through Thursday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...NP