Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

322
FXUS62 KRAH 051113
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
612 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the South Atlantic states through
Tuesday. A backdoor front will slide south of the region early
Thursday, before lifting back north as a warm front Thursday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Monday...

Ridging to quasi-zonal flow will exist at mid-levels on Mon. A
system across the inter-mountain west will track into the upper MS
valley region. At the surface, a chilly surface high near Delmarva
will shift offshore this afternoon and evening.

Above the stable surface layer, low-level moisture return will
spread north and east into the west and northwest Piedmont this
morning. Satellite imagery and AWOS/ASOS observations are already
indicating low stratus and patchy fog over the NC higher terrain and
upstate SC. As mid and high clouds move out, this stratus should
influence the Triad early this morning. The last few runs of the
HRRR have also indicated potential patchy fog in the west and
northwest Piedmont, though confidence is not great. We will monitor
obs. trends for a possible fog advisory. Guidance shows that this
return moisture may get trapped below the stable inversion, perhaps
not fully lifting until late today over the Triad. As a result,
highs may not get out of the upper 40s in the NW, whereas areas to
the east and southeast will range from the mid 50s to low 60s,
warmest in the Sandhills.

Tonight, guidance continues to indicate that moisture upstream in SC
will continue to advect ENE as the low-level WAA flow continues to
increase tied to the Midwest system. Other than some high clouds,
radiational cooling and the advection of said moisture will promote
widespread fog development Tue morning. Confidence is still not
great, but is increasing, especially across the Piedmont. Lows
tonight should hover in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Monday...

The system over the upper MS valley Tue will track into the NE US by
early Wed. The high off the SE US will continue to shift off into
the central Atlantic. Low-level WAA will continue to ramp up from
Mon night and continue into Tue. Guidance is painting the potential
for widespread fog as moisture gets trapped below the surface
inversion. Confidence has increased enough to mention in the HWO,
but how extensive the fog will get is still somewhat uncertain. It
would appear most favored in the Triad. As southwest flow kicks in
midday, we should see the fog lift with daytime mixing and heating.
Temperatures should rise well above normal in the low 60s N to upper
60s S.

Fog may develop again Tue night to early Wed as the low-level
moisture remains, though it may end up being more patchy with the
flow more stirred. Lows will dip into the mid to upper 40s, well
above seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 310 AM Monday

* Unseasonably warm temperatures mid to late week with temperatures
  15-25 degrees above normal.

* A slow moving cold front will cross the area this weekend, which A
  will provide the area with the next good chance for showers and
  cooler temps.

Another Unseasonably warm day is expected for Wednesday in advance
of a dry backdoor cold front that is expected to move through the
area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Ahead of the front
temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight
lows will be colder on Thursday morning behind the front, generally
ranging from the upper 30s across the far north to the mid 40s
across southern portions of the area. The front will lift back
northward as a warm front on Thursday, allowing high temperatures to
rebound back into the mid to upper 60s, with even some low 70s
across the south.

The pattern becomes more amplified by late week into the weekend,
with the potential for multiple disturbances moving through the
deepening longwave trough, eventually driving a cold front into and
through the area, leading to increasing rain chances into the Mid-
Atlantic region by late Friday into the weekend. There is still a
fair amount of uncertainty with regard to the overall evolution of
the pattern, which will result in timing and strength differences.
However, this looks to be our best chance of seeing any rain/showers
during the medium range of the forecast. The cold front/series of
fronts may be slow to move through the area as it become more
parallel with the mid/upper flow, so chances for showers may
lingering into Sunday, before drier conditions and colder temps
returns for early next week. Temps will remain warm/mild ahead of
the front, before cooling back down to normal or below behind the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 612 AM Monday...

MVFR stratus has developed across the western Piedmont in response
to low-level moisture return. A period of IFR is possible, most
favored at INT. The eastern fringe of the MVFR stratus is a tad
further east than most guidance. Based on latest satellite trends,
opted to include a TEMPO for MVFR at RDU and FAY until 18z, after
which ceilings should lift to low-end VFR. Ceilings are likely to
remain MVFR in the Triad, but may lift to low-end VFR by 22z. We
opted to keep INT sub-VFR through the period given some guidance
keeping the moisture trapped below the inversion. Later tonight into
Tue morning, guidance is mixed on the potential for fog or stratus,
and is not in agreement on which terminals may be impacted. The best
chance of sub-VFR Tue morning appears at GSO/INT. For now, given the
uncertainty, opted for TEMPO groups of IFR/MVFR conditions. Some
LLWS is possible

Outlook: Any fog or stratus Tue morning will trend to VFR midday
Tue. Fog may again be possible Wed morning. Marginal low-level wind
shear will also be possible Tue night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Kren