Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

066
FXUS62 KRAH 191902
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
202 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 317 AM Thursday...

* Uncertainty remains for the chance of wintry precip monday, mainly
  north and east of Raleigh.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 317 AM Thursday...

1) A front, and focus for rain, will strengthen and become quasi-
stationary near the border of NC and VA this morning through Fri
morning, with continued unseasonably mild/warm conditions to its
south and throughout most of cntl NC.

2) Potential record warmth on Friday with highs ranging from 71-
80F.

3) Uncertainty remains with respect to a coastal low bringing rain
chances Sunday into Monday, with below normal temperatures returning
to start the week.

4) Temperature drop expected after the cold front, with temperatures
expected to be below average next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 317 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A front, and focus for rain, will strengthen and
become quasi-stationary near the border of NC and VA this morning
through Fri morning, with continued unseasonably mild/warm
conditions to its south and throughout most of cntl NC.

Satellite imagery this morning depicted an expansive long-wave
trough extending from southern California east-northeast across and
just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Embedded weak mid-level
perturbations continue to slide east across the TN Valley and VA/NC
Piedmont generating light rain this morning.  Steadier rain has
largely stay north and west of us with generally just trace
estimates/observations reported over northern central NC thus far.

At the sfc, a weak boundary was evident extending along the NC/VA
foothills/Blue Ridge eastern slopes up into central VA. Further
northeast, a backdoor cold front was observed moving ssw across the
Delmarva Peninsula.  This front will sag ssw this morning,
strengthen, and become quasi-stationary along or just north of the
NC/VA border.  Additional weak mid-level perturbations are expected
to ride across the southern Appalachians today, likely generating
additional light rainfall in this vicinity.  With time, the boundary
should retreat northward some into southern VA. As such, think the
highest precipitation totals will shift north into VA this afternoon
and evening (supported by the latest 00Z HREF and 06 HRRR/NamNest
QPF footprints). Areas in the northern Piedmont/northern Coastal
Plain will likely see upwards of a few tenths of rain at most
through 12Z Friday.

Warm sly flow south of the front (in addition to some thinning of
the cloud deck across southern areas) will push max temperatures up
into the lower to mid 70s. Locations along the NC/VA border will
likely be a bit cooler, with highs in the lower to mid 60s with low
overcast persisting much of the day.

Low overcast will sock in across all of central NC Thursday night
into Friday morning.  Low temperatures across much of the area will
only dip into the upper 50s/lower 60s, almost 30 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential record warmth on Friday with highs ranging
from 71-80F.

As the lingering stationary front slowly retreats north late tonight
into Friday, it is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with
temperatures potentially reaching the low 70s north to upper 70s/
near 80 degrees across the south. Temperatures will all depend on
how much the cloud cover scatters out especially in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Uncertainty remains with respect to a coastal low
bringing rain chances Friday through Monday.

A surface low looks to develop off of a stalled front in the
Southeast on Saturday, which is expected to strengthen off the
southeast coast. The low should then continue to strengthen and move
up the mid-Atlantic coast Sunday into Monday. Looking at the 12Z
LREF cluster analysis, details on the strength and location of the
low off the coast are still unclear. Two of the four clusters are
showing lows that are stronger and closer to the coast which show
precipitation over central NC Sunday afternoon into Monday morning,
while the other two clusters show weaker lows further from the coast
with no precipitation. One cluster is also showing the chance for
some light snow in the northeast early Monday morning with any wrap-
around moisture lingering across the area mainly Raleigh north and
east.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Temperature drop expected after the cold front,
with temperatures expected to be below average next week.

Temperatures will drop below normal by Sunday and continue to be
below normal through at least mid-week. As the coastal low pulls
away Monday, cold Canadian high pressure will build into the region,
bringing a secondary surge of cold, dry air characterized by brisk
northwesterly winds through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

MVFR-based stratocumulus and ceilings, lowest and with greatest
coverage along and north of a quasi-stationary front over nrn NC,
should decrease in coverage --to VFR-- with loss of heating by late
afternoon-evening. However, a combination of nocturnal cooling of an
unseasonably moist/humid airmass, and some swd settling of the
aforementioned front into cntl NC, will favor the redevelopment of
IFR ceilings overnight. Those ceilings may be accompanied by
visibility restrictions in both drizzle and mist/fog along and north
of the front, including at all but FAY, and also low-level wind
shear, through Fri morning. Flight restrictions will gradually
improve with daytime heating and the nwd retreat of the front into
VA through the end of the 18Z TAF period. Associated mixing will
also cause swly surface winds to strengthen and become gusty through
the day. A broken band of (scattered) showers or an isolated storm
will accompany a dryline as it moves across cntl NC during the
midday through afternoon hours, followed by markedly drier air and a
high probability of VFR conditions.

Outlook: A cold front will move across cntl NC Fri night and stall
over SC by early Sat. That front will be a focus for the development
of a couple of areas of low pressure and associated periods of rain
and additional flight restrictions over the Carolinas this weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

February 19:
KRDU: 76/1939

February 20:
KGSO: 74/1922
KRDU: 75/1939
KFAY: 82/2014


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

February 19:
KGSO: 55/1961
KFAY: 62/1938

February 20:
KGSO: 56/1939
KRDU: 62/1939
KFAY: 60/1939

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/CA/LH
AVIATION...MWS