Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

604
FXUS62 KRAH 061841
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
141 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Minor changes to speed up the departure of precipitation based on
  radar trends and latest hi-resolution model guidance. Otherwise,
  no major forecast adjustments were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 110 PM Friday...

1) A severe weather threat will remain through the afternoon for the
eastern half of the forecast area.

2) After today, the weather will turn dry again for several days.
Temperatures will be below normal this weekend, warming up to above
normal for next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 110 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A severe weather threat will remain through the
afternoon for the eastern half of the forecast area.

The Storm Prediction Center has taken a small area in eastern North
Carolina and upgraded the severe weather potential from a marginal
(level 1 of 5) to a slight (level 2 of 5) risk, primarily along and
to the east of I-95. This is primarily for an increased threat of
damaging winds, although large hail or an isolated tornado also
cannot be ruled out. However, the window for severe weather in the
Raleigh forecast area is closing, as current radar trends suggest
that thunderstorms should move east of the forecast area between 3
and 5pm.


KEY MESSAGE 2... After today, the weather will turn dry again for
several days. Temperatures will be below normal this weekend,
warming up to above normal for next week.

High pressure will be dominating the weather for the next several
days across the southeastern United States. With very little
moisture, skies should be mostly clear for multiple days. While
highs will be in the low to mid 60s on Saturday and Sunday, highs
will rise into the upper 60s and 70s for Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday. The coldest night will be Saturday night, with
temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to the mid 40s, and some frost
has been added to the weather grids for early Sunday morning. The
wind should be light, but not calm, and there should also be some
passing high clouds that night, both of which would help to reduce
the chance of additional radiational cooling. Later shifts will have
the opportunity to evaluate whether a frost advisory needs to be
issued.

There is a bit of uncertainty as to what will go on with the pattern
for the end of next week. The current forecast brings in a slight
chance of rain Thursday night and Friday, but models differ as to
how large of a storm system may develop along the Atlantic
coastline. This part of the forecast is likely to change.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

Regional radar imagery and surface observations shows the widespread
moderate rain from RDU to FAY and just now moving into RWI area.
This area is driving the persistent IFR categories as cigs are
gradually lifting into the MVFR range, although short periods of IFR
cigs may still occur until drier air and northwest winds push
through the terminals.

VFR is occurring in the wake of the departing rain shield with
mostly scattered fair-weather cu around 1500-2500 ft developing as
skies clear. There is still a chance for rapid-onset fog/stratus
after sunset and as skies clear, most probable at FAY and RWI and to
a lesser degree RDU, ahead of another surge of drier surface
conditions, but guidance continues to downplay the potential. If it
were to occur, it may be favored in the 02-07 timeframe. This threat
will be reassessed with the 00z TAF forecast package. Otherwise,
briefly gusty winds of 15-25 kts Sat morning will be possible
between 13-17z, before gradually relaxing throughout the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the
TAF outlook period. A couple reinforcing cold fronts will bring wind
shifts and perhaps some gusty winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...AS