Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

598
FXUS62 KRAH 181806
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
106 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

* Rain chances have decreased on Friday and generally remained the
  same for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

1) Despite multi-layered cloudiness and somewhat shallow boundary
layer mixing, today will be unseasonably mild and windy.

2) While uncertainty remains over the weekend, best rain chances
appear focused Saturday into Sunday.

3) Temperatures warmest on Fri, falling below normal next week in
the 40s. Brisk winds possible Sun and Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Despite multi-layered cloudiness and somewhat
shallow boundary layer mixing, today will be unseasonably mild and
windy.

Latest sfc analysis depicted sswly flow across central NC along the
western ridge of the offshore sfc high. Despite multi-layered
cloudiness expected today, sswly gusts of 20 to 25 kts are likely
later this morning and afternoon.  Sites further east may see
occasional gusts of 30 to 35 kts later this afternoon. Gustiness
should largely subside by the early evening.  Given the strong sswly
flow, temperatures today should be quite mild in the upper 60s to
around 70 in the south.

Expect cloudiness to persist into the overnight hours as a weak
vorticity lobe shifts south across the mid-Atlantic. This feature
may generate light rain across the north later tonight, but
generally trace to maybe a few hundreds of an inch of QPF is
expected through 12Z Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...While uncertainty remains over the weekend, best
rain chances appear focused Saturday into Sunday.

A cold front is still forecast to move through the region between
Fri night and Sat morning. As the front settles along and south of
the area Sat through Sun, model and ensemble guidance continues to
favor the development of a trough at mid-levels that tracks from the
Central Plains late Sat into the Carolinas and SE US late Sat into
Sun, before tracking east of the region early next week Mon.

It is difficult to say how much rain we may get on Fri ahead of the
cold front. Some guidance is fairly dry, while other ensembles and
operational models are wetter. At best, a tenth of an inch or less
is possible. The pattern does not really support a wet passage with
the ridge in place. The drier pattern seems favored by the AI-GFS as
well. Overall, lowered PoPs for Friday as more models/ensembles
trended on the drier side.

The better chance of rain will likely come Sat into midday Sun with
the aforementioned trough. The majority of ensemble cluster
solutions show the highest rain chances during this time period.
There remain some timing differences, mainly driven by the timing
and orientation of the trough. The majority of solutions also bring
precipitation to an end by early afternoon Sun, while one outlier
scenario starts rain later Sat night and continues it through most
of Sun, before exiting the region Sun evening. The EC-AIFS and AI-
GFS appear to also support the earlier end to the rain by midday
Sun. The guidance continues to support a surface low tracking across
the Carolinas late Sat into Sun, before exiting off the Mid-Atlantic
coast Sun night. Dry conditions should prevail Mon and Tue.

Given the continued uncertainty, there still is a decent bit of
spread in expected rainfall totals. The low end amounts range from a
quarter to one half inch of rain, while the higher end amounts range
from 0.75 to 1.25 inches. We would expect better agreement as we get
closer to the event.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures warmest on Fri, falling below normal
next week in the 40s. Brisk winds possible Sun and Mon.

Our warmest temperatures are still expected to be on Fri, in fact
well above normal of about 20 degrees, despite clouds and a chance
of showers. Highs could get into the 70s most areas, and maybe
briefly 80 degrees across portions of the Sandhills and southern
Coastal Plain. We still expect a gradual downward trend in forecast
highs Sat through Tue, with the coldest temperatures expected behind
a strong cold front by Mon and Tue with highs in the mid/upper 40s.
Low temperatures Mon/Tues night under cold high pressure could
easily dip into the 20s for most locations. Depending on the
pattern, brisk WNW winds are possible Sun and Mon afternoon, with
gusts possibly over 30 mph. Forecast guidance shows a rather tight
pressure gradient coupled to strong cold advection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM Wednesday...

Scattered to broken stratocumulus based between 2500-4000 ft AGL,
with lowest and greatest coverage of MVFR ceilings over the
Piedmont, should decrease in coverage with loss of heating by late
afternoon-evening. Strong and gusty swly surface winds, including
some that will peak between 30-35 kts, will also diminish with loss
of heating during the same time. A band of light, mid-level-
generated rain and associated minimal restriction to surface
visibility, will overspread the nrn half of cntl NC overnight-Thu
morning, during which time a backdoor front will develop and
strengthen near or perhaps just to the north of Piedmont sites and
RWI. An area of IFR-MVFR ceilings will develop along and north of
that boundary, as will additional areas of rain, and persist into
the first half of the day Thu (to around the end of the 18Z TAF
period). FAY, where VFR conditions are forecast, should meanwhile
remain well south of the front and focus for rain and flight
restrictions through Thu.

Outlook: The front, and focus for rain and flight restrictions, will
probably retreat nwd to near or north of the VA border Thu afternoon-
evening, then settle swd and into the nrn NC Piedmont once again
later Thu night-Fri morning. A chance of showers will accompany a
trailing cold front across the region later Fri. That front and
focus for the development of a couple of areas of low pressure will
then stall over the Southeast and support periods of rain and
additional flight restrictions over cntl NC this weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

February 19:
KGSO: 74/1939
KRDU: 76/1939

February 20:
KGSO: 74/1922
KRDU: 75/1939
KFAY: 82/2014

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

February 18:
KGSO: 54/1981

February 19:
KGSO: 55/1961
KRDU: 62/1938
KFAY: 62/1938

February 20:
KGSO: 56/1939
KRDU: 62/1939
KFAY: 60/1939

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NL/CA/AK
AVIATION...MWS