Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

505
FXUS62 KRAH 150645
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat Advisories across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and
  portions of the Coastal Plain today. High heat continues
  elsewhere, as well.

* Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening, higher probabilities from VA and the NC mountains south
  and east across the Triad and possibly the Triangle.

* Excessive Heat possible Monday and Tuesday as upper ridge briefly
  expands eastward over the Carolina`s.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 AM Saturday...

1) Heat Advisory across southern portions of central NC today.
However, high heat and humidity can be expected throughout the region
with the heat indices reaching 100+ in all areas, 105 in the
Advisory area.

2) There is a Slight risk (west) and Marginal risk (east) of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the
primary threat.

3) Excessive heat possible Monday and Tuesday as upper ridge briefly
expands eastward over the Carolina`s. At least Advisory criteria of
105+ heat indices expected with the potential of 110 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory across the southern portions of
central NC today. However, high heat and humidity can be expected
throughout the region with the heat indices expected to reach 100+ in
all areas this afternoon.

Satellite data indicated relatively thin cirrus extending across
the lower Ohio Valley south and east into NC. The current pattern of
a strong upper ridge centered over AR, with a WNW flow aloft from
the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic states continues. Surface dew
points were way up into the mid 70s nearing 80 in the SE this
morning. There could be a few stratus to start the day in the east;
however, expect mostly sunny skies with hot temperatures today. A
weak low level boundary will likely extend from NW to SE across the
region this afternoon. Highs will soar into the 90s, even along and
just north of the boundary. There will even be some moisture pooling
today with dew points expected to remain in the mid 70s. This will
keep the Heat Advisory criteria of 105+ degree heat indices likely
over the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and portions of the Coastal
Plain. Elsewhere, no break from the heat expected as heat indices
should reach the upper 90s to 102 over the Triad, Triangle, and
Rocky Mount.

Additional heat advisories are likely Sunday into mid next week,
with the potential for Excessive Heat Warnings Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, with the higher probabilities from VA and the
NC mountains south and east across the Triad.

The weather pattern mentioned above also continues to favor severe
storms possibilities over our region. Strong surface heating is
expected with the nearly clear skies this morning along and south of
the surface boundary that is expected to be in place over the area
this afternoon. The front should extend from NW to SE from roughly
Boone to the Triad and possibly just south of the Triangle during
peak heating. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western NC
(mountains) early to mid afternoon due to differential heating
(lift) and low level convergence near the boundary. Additional
storms upstream associated with the next MCV may also track from WVA
into VA or northern NC with additional boundaries (outflows) from
mid to late day. At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to
track ENE into central NC aided by the boundaries, MLCapes near 2500
J/kg, and PW`s near 2 inches. A few wet microbursts are possible.

The latest CAMS are not overly aggressive, yet the conditions are
favorable for a few severe thunderstorms.

The chance of storms may linger well into the night along the
residual boundaries. The chances appear to shift north, mainly into
VA and NE NC on Sunday afternoon.

Key Message 3...  Excessive heat possible Monday and Tuesday as
upper ridge briefly expands eastward over the Carolina`s. At least
Advisory criteria of 105+ heat indices expected with the potential
of 110 degrees.

Stronger upper ridging arriving from the west should push the best
chance of thunderstorms well to our north and east early next week.
Additional sunshine may boost temperatures to near 100 in some
areas. Some mixing is expected, but if the dew points do stay
elevated, especially over the Coastal Plain and eastern Piedmont,
excessive and even more dangerous heat may result. Some heat indices
may reach or exceed 110 Monday.

Much more on this potential later in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

TAF period: Generally VFR conditions are expected through
06z/Sunday. However,

A chance of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon into the
evening. We included a PROB30 group between 19z today and
03z/tonight.

Looking beyond 06z Sun, scattered late-day showers and storms are
possible each day through Monday. Otherwise, generally VFR
conditions are expected. A few hours of patchy early-morning sub-VFR
fog/stratus may occur each day, with the highest chances in areas
that see rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

August 15: KFAY: 100/1935

August 17: KRDU: 99/1997 KFAY: 104/1954

August 18: KFAY: 98/1988

August 20: KFAY: 102/2007


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 15: KGSO: 77/1995 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2017

August 16: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 76/2007 KFAY: 78/2005

August 17: KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 76/2024 KFAY: 78/2007

August 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021

August 19: KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940

August 20: KGSO: 77/1912 KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ042-073>078-
083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...Badgett/Green