Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

987
FXUS62 KRAH 040951
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
551 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from previous forecast

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 138 AM Sunday...

1) A slow moving cold front will keep unsettled weather in place
today, with cloudy, cool, and wet conditions expected.

2) Much drier air a will arrive Monday afternoon and Tuesday, then
last through much of the upcoming week. Temperatures will average
close to normal for early October through mid-week, then trend above
normal late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 138 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A slow moving cold front will keep unsettled
weather in place today, with cloudy, cool, and wet conditions
expected.

Early morning water vapor imagery reveals broad southwesterly flow
aloft, with a series of embedded shortwaves across GA/SC/southern
NC. At the surface, weak high pressure was located over New England
while a surface cold front stretched from the Coastal Plain through
the Sandhills and westward toward KCLT. The front has made slow but
steady southward progress since Saturday afternoon although forward
progress has slowed greatly this evening. Dewpoints north of the
front have fallen into the lower 50s while they remain in the upper
60s/lower 70s to the south.

The front, which will become increasingly stationary today, should
serve as the primary focal point for precip chances through at least
mid day. With a series of weak upstream shortwaves forecast to move
through the area today in close proximity to the stalled surface
boundary. precip chances are likely to be maximized south and east
of the Triangle. While light rain and drizzle are certainly expected
elsewhere, the greatest precip totals are likely to be confined to
the southern 1/3rd of the forecast area.

Conditions will slowly dry out from NW to SE late this afternoon
into tonight, although most of the 00Z guidance suggests a continued
period of showers across the southern Coastal Plain well into early
Monday morning.

In terms of additional precip: expect a tenth to a quarter across
the Triad and Triangle, with a half to three quarters of an inch
farther south and east.

Finally, the extensive cloud cover and precip will keep temps well
below climatological normals for early October. Highs will only
reach the mid/upper 60s north of the stalled surface front, while
making a run at the low/mid 70s to the south.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Much drier air a will arrive Monday afternoon and
Tuesday, then last through much of the upcoming week. Temperatures
will average close to normal for early October through mid-week,
then trend above normal late in the week.

Lingering moisture including low stratus, some fog, and even a
lingering light shower (SE) early Monday will slowly give way to
much drier air arriving from the NW Monday afternoon and Monday
night. Expect sunshine to return to the northern Piedmont early
Monday, with partly sunny skies in the east and south through much
of the day. Highs will top out in the 70s. It may be warmer in the
NW Piedmont than in the SE Coastal Plain as the sun will likely be
slow to return at Goldsboro and Clinton.

Regardless, much drier air associated with surface high pressure
building from the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states will bring
mainly clear/sunny conditions by Monday night into Wednesday night.
Lows will dip into the 40s/50s NW to SE Monday night, mostly 40s
Tuesday night, and around 50 Wednesday night. Highs will cool into
the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Reinforcing dry air associated with another high pressure will
spread into the region Thursday and Friday. The temperatures will
most likely trend into the mid 70s to around 80 late week, with lows
in the 50s.

The next chance of rain appears to be possibly late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 551 AM Sunday...

Not much change from previous forecast thinking, as central NC
remains within a post-frontal CAD regime featuring widespread
IFR/LIFR ceilings and IFR vsbys. Rain has been widely scattered in
nature (more drizzle than anything since 09Z) although it appears an
upstream wave will still produce additional rainfall later this
morning.

For today, the biggest aviation impact should be in the form of
widespread and persistent IFR/LIFR ceilings. INT/GSO may see gradual
improvement to MVFR after 18Z, and it may take until after 00Z for
those type of improvements to be seen elsewhere. At RDU/FAY/RWI, the
proximity of a nearby stalled surface boundary could serve as the
trigger for additional light rain through this afternoon. Lingering
moisture from this rain will be slow to scour out tonight, thus we
could see an additional round of IFR or lower ceilings and drizzle
toward the end of the TAF period. The more noteworthy improvements
to ceilings and vsbys will come on Monday after the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook: The stalled boundary will remain in place across the
Coastal Plain/Sandhills through Monday morning and sub-VFR
conditions may persist at FAY/RWI through the first part of Monday.
A secondary cold front will arrive from the north Monday afternoon,
bringing significantly drier air to the area along with VFR
conditions. After that, VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites
through the end of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leins/Badgett
AVIATION...Leins