Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

010
FXUS62 KRAH 170545
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Aviation forecast issued for 06z/17 through 06z/18

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 PM Friday...

1) A cold front moving across central North Carolina tonight will
bring light to moderate rain to all locations and sharply colder
temperatures for Saturday.

2) Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday morning and Monday
morning, followed by moderating but below-normal temperatures for
the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front moving across central North Carolina
tonight will bring light to moderate rain to all locations and
sharply colder temperatures for Saturday.

Although a band of convective showers could bring a brief period of
precipitation this evening, a more widespread area of rain will move
into central North Carolina late this evening into the overnight
hours. Low pressure will develop along the front by Saturday
morning, bringing the chance of rain to near 100% from the Triangle
east for Saturday morning. The heaviest rain is forecast to occur
Saturday morning, but rain will linger east of the Triad into the
afternoon. While Thursday night`s low temperatures were generally in
the 60s, tonight`s lows will be slightly colder, ranging from the
upper 40s to the mid 50s. However, it will not be possible to step
outside Saturday and not notice the difference in temperatures from
today. One or two isolated locations may manage to reach the 60s,
but otherwise widespread 50s are forecast for Saturday`s highs, with
the return of sunshine likely by sunset.

KEY MESSAGE 2...  Patchy frost possible in the Piedmont Sunday
morning and Monday morning, followed by moderating but below-normal
temperatures for the workweek.

In the wake of Saturday`s cold front, a deep shortwave will swing
across the region and stall roughly along the Carolina coast through
at least the middle of next week. A strong 1034 mb surface high will
build eastward across the Midwest, positioning itself adjacent to a
coastal low that is expected to develop in response to the upper-
level trough. This strong pressure gradient setup will maintain a
steady and at times breezy north-northeasterly flow early in the
week, along with a gradual increase in low-end rain chances each
day, though exact details will depend heavily on the position and
movement of the upper low.

The airmass behind the front will support overnight lows in the 30s
across the Piedmont, with potential for radiational cooling into the
lower 30s. However, the tighter pressure gradient should maintain at
least light stirring overnight Saturday and Sunday night, while high-
level moisture wraps back around the upper low across central and
eastern NC. Consequently, while temperatures may warrant a Frost
Advisory with some temps in the mid-30s, it remains uncertain
whether winds will fully decouple to allow for more widespread
impacts.

For the remainder of the week, weather impacts will be closely tied
to the position of the upper low. The low looks to remain cut off
from the primary westerlies and may drift south-southwestward late
in the week as ridging attempts to build overtop of it into the
central Appalachians. Operational guidance (GFS/ECMWF) remains west
of the AI-based counterparts, though all agreeing better with the
GEFS mean than the eastern-outlying EPS mean. Thus, confidence in
sensible weather impacts remains somewhat low. Expect a gradual
moderation in temperatures, though highs will remain below normal,
along with increasing cloud cover, particularly over eastern
counties. Latest guidance continues to support slight chance PoPs
east of US-1 each day, which makes sense based on model trends and
proximity of the upper low but overall weak forcing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

TAF period: The cold front will be through the entire area by 08z or
so, with gusty N winds to 25 kt through 12z. Little if any showers
with the front itself. However, rain is expected to develop over the
western Piedmont through 12z, then overspread central and eastern NC
through the morning. Periods of rain will finally taper off between
18z and 22z in the east.

Widespread MVFR ceilings will develop between 09z and 12z and
persist much of the day. Visibilities are likely to drop to MVFR
(and potentially IFR at times) with the rain, as well. VFR
conditions and dry weather will return from NW to SE from mid
afternoon into early evening. Northerly winds will also increase a
bit further during the day, gusting up to 30 kts.

Outlook: A surface low is forecast to develop along the cold front
once it reaches the Atlantic Ocean, which could result in several
days of intermittent cloudiness and possibly a few showers at
FAY/RWI, although confidence is low as to whether MVFR ceilings
would also be present. Northerly wind gusts between 25-35 kt will
occur Sunday, diminishing Monday or Monday night if the low moves
out that quickly.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green/BLS
AVIATION...Badgett