Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

705
FXUS62 KRAH 270620
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
219 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

* Slight upward adjustment to high temperatures on Fri and downward
  adjustment to minimum temperatures Sun morning.

* Winds and wind gusts were increased on Fri, especially behind the
  frontal passage.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

1) A strong cold front will bring light to moderate rain, seasonably
gusty winds, and a sharp drop in temperatures Friday into Saturday.

2) Adverse fire weather conditions possible Friday and again on
Saturday.

3) Widespread frost conditions likely with localized freeze possible
Sun morning.

4) Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend through at
least mid week resulting in a prolonged period of below average
precipitation exasperating drought conditions and sustaining or
prolonging the abundance of pollen in the air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will bring light to moderate
rain, seasonably gusty winds, and a sharp drop in temperatures
Friday into Saturday.

A stationary cold front draped across the Midwest this afternoon
will sharpen and then progress southeast into the Mid-Atlantic Fri
morning. Although guidance varies slightly on the exact timing the
cold front will enter central NC Fri afternoon, the general
consensus is that the front will traverse our region in backdoor
fashion (from VA as opposed to from the northwest). Ahead of the
front, warm southwesterly flow will increase and support
unseasonably warm and likely record breaking temperatures at RDU and
FAY (see climate section below for daily records).

Although boundary layer moisture will be rather meager for air
temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90, an EML over the central
CONUS and Midwest will advect eastward and over the Carolinas by Fri
morning, although weakening and modifying slightly. This will help
support the development of weak instability on the order of 100-500
J/kg of SBCAPE over the Carolinas ahead of the front. With the
overall lack of synoptic mid/upper level forcing through the
afternoon, the primary forcing mechanisms will come from the front
itself, and/or convective outflow outpacing the front and result in
mostly anafrontal convective processes (elevated convection). This
will greatly limit any strong to severe storms, although seasonably
strong winds will certainly be possible with the passage of the
front (30-40 kts). Weakly elevated instability and perturbations
rippling through the seasonably moist band of moisture behind the
front will provide our main precipitation for this event. Hi-res
guidance is coming in wetter than global models and suggest within
larger areas of 0.1 to 0.3", localized 0.5 to +0.75" will be
possible, but entirely dependent on deeper convection developing
behind the front.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Adverse fire weather conditions possible Friday and
again on Saturday.

Although meteorological conditions will likely not overlap to result
in typical fire weather concerns, the combination of unseasonably
warm and record breaking temperatures, relative humidity values in
the 30s, seasonably breezy southwesterly winds, and bordering on
historic dryness within 100-hr fuels, may provide for an atypically
hazardous fire weather day on Fri. This will be further complicated
and especially hazardous around any ongoing fires by an abrupt wind
shift from the front, or convective outflow, as it shifts south
through the forecast area late Fri afternoon into the evening.

Dependent on the areal footprint of a wetting rain that occurs late
Fri afternoon into Fri night, Saturday may also feature a typically
unfavorable pattern for fire weather concerns with a northeast wind.
However, gusty winds and widespread minimum RH values less than 25%,
and possibly as low as the teens in the western Piedmont, will
likely enhance fire weather concerns.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Widespread frost conditions likely with localized
freeze possible Sun morning.

A chilly 1037mb Canadian high pressure system will shift southeast
into our region and setup across NC and VA around daybreak Sunday
morning. Low level thickness values will modify from Saturday and
range between 1305 to 1315m on Sunday morning thanks to warming in
the top of the layer but with the surface high overhead, favorable
radiational cooling conditions will result in chilly temperatures.
We adjusted lows downward a bit into the 28 to 34 range. These
temperatures would be especially hazardous to any early budding
plants/vegetation that are sensitive to the cold. The Frost/Freeze
program for central NC will begin the morning of April 1st, at which
time we will resume the issuance of Frost Advisories, Freeze
Watches/Warnings. Until then, will continue to highlight this risk
in the HWO and gridded weather forecast.


KEY MESSAGE 4... Dry weather is expected to return for the weekend
through at least mid week resulting in a prolonged period of below
average precipitation exasperating drought conditions and sustaining
or prolonging the abundance of pollen in the air.

Dry weather is expected for the weekend through at least mid week
with the next chance of rain arriving late in the work week and
especially toward the weekend. This will likely mean the only
measurable rain from March 17th through April 1st will be the
limited QPF event on Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

A swly low-level jet in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians
this morning, strongest at 40-60 kts from NC to NJ per regional
radar (VWP) data, will favor the maintenance of low-level wind shear
throughout cntl NC until the nocturnal inversion breaks with daytime
heating. Wswly surface winds will subsequently strengthen and become
gusty to around 20 kts through the afternoon. A strong cold front
will meanwhile approach from the north and surge swd and across cntl
NC between 21Z-03Z. The cold front will be accompanied by scattered
convection that may produce strong and gusty surface winds and hail
before being quickly undercut by the cold front and weakening.
Mostly MVFR ceilings, stratiform rain, and also strong and gusty nly
to nnely surface winds, will follow in the post-frontal regime this
evening/early tonight.

Outlook: A band of MVFR ceilings may linger from near FAY to RDU Sat
morning, with VFR expected otherwise and elsewhere. Nly to nely
surface winds will also remain strong and gusty through Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 27:
KGSO: 86/1921
KRDU: 87/2007
KFAY: 87/1946


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 27:
KGSO: 60/2007
KRDU: 65/1949
KFAY: 65/1949

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Swiggett/Blaes
AVIATION...MWS