Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS62 KRAH 291730
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM Friday...

1) A wavy frontal zone will buckle northward Saturday and again on
Monday, but rainfall amounts appear limited through the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A wavy frontal zone will buckle northward Saturday
and again on Monday, but rainfall amounts appear limited through the
middle of next week.

A high-latitude omega-blocking pattern will prevail through the
forecast period with a highly anomalous and persistent mid/upper-lvl
ridge extending into central Canada which will be bookended by a
pair of mid/upper-lvl lows over CA and the Canadian maritimes. This
stagnant pattern will favor a series of shortwaves to lock-in mean
troughing over the Northeast and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and push
several reinforcing cold fronts into the area potentially through
Tues.

The quasi-stationary boundary is expected to buckle northward a bit
on Sat but will likely remain well south of central NC. Deep layer
moisture will however be on the rise as the remnants of a mid-lvl
shear axis lifts atop this boundary and into the Carolinas. This
will likely support mostly increased cloud cover and very light rain
and/or virga as forcing for ascent will likely be disjointed. Some
moisture pooling ahead of the approaching cold frontal passage may
support some scattered showers and isolated storms, but widespread
deep convection appears unlikely.

Some shallow moisture return ahead of yet another cold front appears
possible on Mon as an area of surface high pressure shifts off the
Carolina Coast and may result in isolated to scattered showers, but
confidence is low. An added complication highlighted in
deterministic guidance suggests a weak disturbance ejecting
underneath the high-latitude omega block may bring increasing cloud
coverage as well as some virga and very light rain Mon morning.
Better chances for showers will likely be over the upslope terrain
in western NC with orographic forcing overcoming meager instability.
Localized enhancements to convective coverage appear possible along
the track of any storm-scale MCVs, but predictability on these meso-
gamma to meso-beta features is nearly impossible with any degree of
confidence at this time range.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the next 24
hours at most sites, with more uncertainty at FAY. A front that has
been stationary to the south of central North Carolina will slowly
lift to the north through the afternoon, bringing a southerly
component to the wind at most terminals. While some high level
clouds will be present at INT/GSO/RDU/RWI this afternoon/evening,
the primary area of mid-level clouds should remain around FAY.
Precipitation with the front is not expected to move into the area
until after daybreak on Saturday, and it appears that the northern
edge of the precipitation shield should remain just to the south of
INT/GSO/RDU/RWI, but have added likely showers and vicinity
thunderstorms to FAY by late morning. At this point, it appears that
FAY should remain VFR with precipitation, but cannot rule out brief
restrictions in either ceiling or visibility. Another front
approaching from the north on Saturday is not likely to bring any
rainfall, but should result in a wind shift back to the north

Outlook: The threat for sub-VFR conditions at FAY should be waning
by Saturday afternoon, and any showers should come to an end by 00Z
Sunday. Saturday night through Sunday night should be dry, then
another round of showers will be possible at all sites Monday and
Monday night, with the highest chances at FAY. The rest of the
forecast is expected to be dry with VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...Green