Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

784
FXUS62 KRAH 242340
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
740 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Storms have ended in the SE.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 740 PM Monday...

1) Scattered storms have ended in the SE part of the region, no
additional activity is expected tonight.

2) Diurnally driven storms expected to return from mid week into the
weekend, with the greatest chances on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered storms have ended in the SE part of the
region, no additional activity is expected tonight.

The showers/storms over SE NC have pushed offshore. The cold front
had pushed through Fayetteville and will push just to the SE of
Clinton and Goldsboro in the next few hours. Regardless, much drier
air upstream over the Piedmont will begin to advect in from the
north over SE sections in the next few hours and no additional storm
development is expected.

It will otherwise be mild for late August, and mainly clear
overnight. low temperatures 50s in rural Piedmont locations to
lower to mid 60s SE.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally driven storms expected to return from mid
week into the weekend, with the greatest chances on Thursday and
Friday.

A longwave low amplitude H5 trough over the Ohio Valley will
gradually slide eastward by the middle of the week, as the influence
of offshore ridging gradually wanes across the region. This will
allow for a gradual increase in moisture as weak southerly flow
imports anomalously high PW`s into the area as early as
Wednesday/Thursday. Meanwhile, the longwave trough and attendant
surface cold front will approach the area from the northwest on
Thursday, serving as a focal point for shower and thunderstorm
development area-wide. It would appear the greatest storm chances on
Thursday would be across the western Piedmont in closest proximity
to the front and weak Piedmont trough, although pretty much anywhere
across central NC will have increased storm chances given abundant
PW`s and MLCAPEs around 1000-1500 J/kG.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are expected area-wide on
Friday as the surface front slides into NC.  How far southward this
front makes it before it stalls out is likely the biggest piece of
forecast uncertainty that we`re encountering today. The lack of
strong post-frontal northwesterly flow aloft would suggest the front
will likely stall over NC, then buckle back northward or wash out
completely this weekend. Naturally this would allow for a continued
period of afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances. With the flow
aloft gradually taking on a more zonal component this weekend,
convection within the Piedmont trough as well as sea breeze induced
storms seem like the most likely outcome.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 PM Monday...

High pressure and associated continental/dry air will build from
the OH Valley to the southern mid-Atlantic states and favor VFR
conditions over cntl NC through Tue.

Outlook: Onshore/return flow, and associated moistening low-levels,
will favor the development of areas of fog and low stratus Wed
morning at FAY and possibly near GSO/INT. Moisture will further
increase and support the development throughout cntl NC of areas of
IFR-MVFR stratus Thu morning and following MVFR stratocumulus
through early Thu afternoon. That increase in moisture will also
contribute to increasing chances of diurnal convection Wed-Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS