Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

520
FXUS62 KRAH 070430
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1230 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Backdoor front appears to be trending slower to move through Mon.

* Confidence continues to increase that dangerous heat will return
  mid-late week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

1) Continued hot through Mon. A brief reprieve Tue-Wed, but then
another heat wave is increasingly favored late next week.

2) Diurnally driven convection possible each day through next week,
but overall coverage remains quite limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued hot through Mon. A brief reprieve Tue-
Wed, but then another heat wave is increasingly favored late next
week.

The overall pattern is more or less unchanged through Monday as
anomalously hot weather continues across the region. The low-level
airmass hovers in the 1425-1430m range with respect to low-level
thicknesses, well supportive of mid to upper 90s. The one exception
may be over the western Piedmont, where highs largely top out in the
lower 90s.

A backdoor front moves through sometime Monday. We mention Monday
vaguely as it appears guidance has been trending a touch slower with
its passage, perhaps sliding south during the day. As a result,
highs should still hover in the low to middle 90s in most locations,
with even a few upper 90s in the Triangle. Sunday still looks to be
the warmest day of the next few days, getting close to the record
high for RDU of 100 (see climate section).

A brief reprieve is expected in the heat Tue-Wed behind the backdoor
front and as somewhat cool high pressure extends down from Delmarva.
But this high quickly builds offshore midweek, resulting in well
above normal temperatures to return late next week and the upcoming
weekend.

The stretch from Thursday through Saturday is becoming increasingly
favored for dangerous heat. Not only will the airmass be similar to
this weekend, but dewpoints will also increase well into the 60s,
increasing heat stress and heat-related illnesses. The HeatRisk
category reaches a category 3 and 4 out of 4 Thu through Sat. This
is in the major to extreme category, affecting anyone without
cooling/hydration, as well as health systems, industries, and
infrastructure. Additionally, the NBM probability of meeting or
exceeding 100F is 40-60 percent during this stretch, particularly
Fri-Sat over the Triangle, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally driven convection possible each day
through next week, but overall coverage remains quite limited.

Storm chances continue to trend lower for Sun ahead of a backdoor
front that is expected to move through sometime Monday. Most CAM
solutions indicate that as convection develops in east-central and
southeast VA during the afternoon and evening, storms weaken with
southward extent across the far northeast Piedmont and northern
Coastal Plain of central NC. We still think a 20-percent chance is
warranted in our northeast. SPC maintained a marginal risk of severe
in SE VA within 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30 kts of deep-layer shear.
However, most of that instability wanes over NC, keeping our severe
threat low.

The backdoor front appears to be trending slower to move through,
perhaps during the day Monday. As a result, a differential heating
boundary may set up from NE to SW, with the best chance of afternoon
isolated to scattered storms along/south of the Triangle and south
of US-64. We still feel coverage will be limited and diurnally
driven. Instability will be favorable, but shear is weak such that
any severe threat would only be confined to a few stronger pulse-
type storms.

Overall, the coverage of storms Tuesday onward appears low, largely
focused over western NC and the far western Piedmont along the
western periphery of the ridge. Several ensemble solutions do
indicate an uptick in diurnally driven storm chances toward the
latter part of next week and weekend, perhaps in response to a
frontal system, but that is largely uncertain at this point.
Increasing low-level moisture and dewpoints may also be a
contributing factor. Regardless, coverage of storms still appears
limited at this stage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected over central NC terminals over the next
24 hours. High pressure sitting offshore and extending west into the
Southeast states will continue to bring warm and dry conditions
through today, although mid/high clouds will steadily increase from
the west. As the high shifts further offshore and gives way to a
backdoor front moving in from the NNE late this evening into
tonight, a period of broken VFR skies is expected over the NE late
in this TAF period, mainly affecting RDU/RWI, but VFR conditions
should still hold. There is also a small chance for a stray shower
or storm near RDU/RWI 00z-06z this evening, but most activity will
be isolated and N of those sites. Surface winds will be from the SW
or WSW, except mostly from the WNW at INT/GSO during today. Speeds
will be under 10 kts except 10-15 kts during the daytime hours.

Looking beyond 06z Mon, as the backdoor cold front settles into the
area from the NNE through daybreak Mon, there will be a few more
clouds at RDU/RWI, but overall the central NC terminals will stay
VFR through Mon morning. Scattered showers and storms, which may
contain brief sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds, are possible Mon
mid afternoon through mid evening, with the best chance INT/GSO SE
through FAY, but confidence in the details is low. There is a good
chance for sub-VFR cigs Mon night through the first half of Tue
across the W and SW including INT/GSO. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
favored, and typical daytime scattered showers/storms will remain
possible through Thu.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 6:
KGSO: 96/2008
KRDU: 99/2008
KFAY: 99/1943

June 7:
KGSO: 98/1925
KRDU: 100/2008
KFAY: 99/2008

June 8:
KRDU: 101/2008
KFAY: 101/2008

June 11:
KRDU: 100/1914

June 12:
KRDU: 98/2002
KFAY: 99/1926


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 7:
KGSO: 73/2008
KRDU: 74/2008

June 8:
KGSO: 73/2008
KRDU: 75/1899
KFAY: 74/2008

June 9:
KGSO: 72/2020
KRDU: 75/1993
KFAY: 77/2008

June 10:
KRDU: 76/2020
KFAY: 77/2020

June 11:
KGSO: 74/2008
KRDU: 74/2008
KFAY: 77/1981

June 12:
KGSO: 72/1998
KRDU: 75/1986
KFAY: 76/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE..RAH