Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

879
FXUS62 KRAH 211706
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
105 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes to the local forecast.  SPC has expanded the
  Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across western portions of the areas.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

1) There is Slight Risk of severe storms on Monday afternoon and
evening, mainly across the western and northern Piedmont.

2) Another brief hot spell peaks Mon, when highs will be in the mid-
upper 90s with heat index values near 100F, mainly along and east of
Highway 1.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... There is Slight Risk of severe storms on Monday
afternoon and evening, mainly across the western and northern
Piedmont.

A strong shortwave trough will cross the Ohio Valley and Mid-
Atlantic on Monday, with a trailing cold front poised to cross
central North Carolina Monday evening and overnight. Moist southerly
flow ahead of the cold front will send dew points into at least the
mid-60s, if not around 70, based on some guidance, resulting in the
potential for 1000-2000 MLCAPE, particularly across the western
Piedmont where some mid-level capping will be more apt to erode due
to approaching height falls. The belt of strongest mid-level flow
looks to be maximized north of our area along with the presence of
surface pressure falls and low-level back Currently, the SPC has all
of Central North Carolina in a Marginal Risk, with a Slight Risk
just to our north,ed flow, but 20-25 knots of bulk sfc-500mb shear
will help support a severe threat. DCAPE should also be relatively
high across the Piedmont, which may further support some upscale
merging of cold pools and a straight-line damaging wind threat as
storms move off the mountains. SPC has expanded a Slight Risk across
the western half of the area and AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecasts
favor mostly the Piedmont where the timing of the synoptic front and
any preceding outflow boundaries interact with peak diurnal heating.

WPC has western NC in a Marginal Risk for flash flooding, but with
QPF having decreased a bit overall and and area average amounts of
just 0.25-0.50", any minor flooding would be very localized and
likely in urban areas around the Triad.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Another brief hot spell peaks Mon, when highs will
be in the mid-upper 90s with heat index values near 100F, mainly
along and east of Highway 1.

A warm and increasingly humid SW flow returns Mon ahead of the
slowly approaching cold front. While this period of hot weather does
not appear to be especially profound or long-lasting, much of the
eastern half of central NC, including from the Triangle region to
the south and east, are likely to see afternoon heat indices peaking
around 100F. This is also where the NWS experimental Heat Risk
reaches the Major category (level 3 of 4), indicating atypically
high heat that could lead to an increased risk of heat illnesses,
especially for vulnerable populations. People needing to work or
exercise outdoors Mon should take precautions and plan for frequent
shade (or AC) and hydration breaks. Temps on Tue will remain above
normal with elevated humidity, but the increase in clouds should
keep temps and heat indices just under critical values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions will dominate through the next 24 hours across
central NC terminals, within a warm flow out of the SW ahead of an
approaching cold front. There is a chance of MVFR cigs over the
southwest CWA early Mon morning (~08z-13z) which may affect FAY and
perhaps RDU/RWI, but confidence is not high enough to include a cig
here for now, so will maintain a VFR forecast but will monitor.
Otherwise, clouds will be mostly high/thin, and no vsby restrictions
are expected. Surface winds will be light mainly from the S or SW
through sunrise Mon, then increase to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 15-
25 kts after 14z.

Looking beyond 18z Monday, as a cold front approaches from the NW,
the chance for showers and storms will increase and persist
especially at INT/GSO/RDU, peaking late Mon afternoon through Mon
evening. A period of sub-VFR conditions with sct heavy downpours and
gusty/shifting winds can be expected in and near any storms. Sub-VFR
cigs/vsbys will be possible early Tue morning, then as this front
slowly moves SSE into the state Tue, another round of showers and
storms will be possible, highest chances across the E and S. Wed may
be mostly dry outside of the far SE, then we should see scattered
late-day storms mainly in the S and W Thu/Fri along with patchy
early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22: KRDU: 100/2022  KFAY: 101/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 22: KGSO: 75/1981  KRDU: 78/1933

June 23: KGSO: 74/2024  KRDU: 78/2024  KFAY: 77/2024


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BLS
AVIATION...Hartfield