Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

852
FXUS62 KRAH 081904
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
204 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Mid Atlantic coast will push offshore through
tonight, allowing a warm front to move northward through the area on
Friday. A strong cold front will sweep through the region Saturday
night into early Sunday, ushering in more seasonable temperatures
for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Thursday...

* Dry through tonight, but with increasing low clouds, and patchy
  drizzle possible in the Triad late.

Surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic coast will move E and
offshore through tonight, supported by amplifying mid level ridging
along the E Coast, allowing surface warm frontal passage from the S
and SE into NC. Skies will stay fair through the rest of the
daylight hours with high clouds spreading in, but later tonight,
advection of greater low level moisture and higher dewpoints from
the S (noted well on this morning`s soundings at FFC/CHS/JAX) will
result in development of low clouds spreading in first over the S
and W from late evening through the overnight hours. SE and far S
areas, where surface dewpoints will be highest, may also see areas
of fog late tonight. This low level moisture and saturated upglide
at 290K-300K looks likely to be sufficiently deep/strong in the NW
Piedmont late tonight for patchy drizzle as well, but any precip
here should be very light and not spread E overnight, given the
lingering dry air just aloft over E NC associated with the mid level
ridge. Expect temps tonight to be coolest in the NE where
radiational cooling will be facilitated by thinner high clouds and
later stratus arrival overnight. Expect lows from the upper 30s/near
40 NE to upper 40s SW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 203 PM Thursday...

A strong upper trough will strengthen and lift across the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday. At the sfc, a weak
high initially off the New England coast will shift further offshore
through the day. Initially enely sfc flow will consequently turn
sswly Friday morning/afternoon.  Isentropic lift associated with
weak WAA may trigger light rain/drizzle in our far western areas
Friday morning into the afternoon (although best chances for rain
this early would be more-so over the mountains/foothills). Any QPE
early would likely amount to just a few hundreds of an inch at most
through the morning/afternoon hours in this vicinity.

As we turn into the evening and overnight period, increasing WAA and
isentropic lift along the 300 K theta sfc will promote better rain
chances across the western Piedmont early before shifting east over
the northern Piedmont/Coastal Plain through early Saturday morning.
Sites further south and southeast should see lower QPE through this
period. Overall QPF for northern areas could range from a few
hundreds to a few tenths across the NC/VA border.

High temperatures on Friday will range from lower 60s in the Triad
to lower to mid 70s across the southern Coastal Plain. Forecast
soundings indicate most locations should eventually mix with
possible sly gusts of up to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.  Warm
overnight lows in the mid 50s are likely with patchy fog possible
especially across southern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

-Record warmth Saturday, then freezing Sunday night.

-Showers Saturday into early Sunday (isolated storms in NW)

-Gusty winds Saturday/Sunday afternoon, up to 30mph.

-Dry MondayTuesday; low-confidence rain midweek.

A surface low centered over Tennessee Saturday morning will lift
northeast through the Ohio Valley, with a warm front extending east
across the Mid-Atlantic along with a cold front trailing south
toward the Gulf Coast. As the surface low shifts northeastward,
expect increasing PoPs across the CWA early Saturday morning mainly
across the Triangle and areas to the north and west. As the front
approaches the region and intersects with the warm sector, areas
along the merge may see a few isolated strong storms Saturday
morning ahead of a cold front. Locally damaging winds are possible
where storms persist. The threat should diminish as the front moves
east. Shower and storm coverage across the southeast CWA should
remain isolated through the daytime hours Saturday. As the main cold
front crosses the region Saturday night, shower coverage will then
increase and become more widespread across the entire forecast area
overnight. By Sunday morning, the front should be exiting the Mid-
Atlantic coast, allowing the bulk of the rainfall to end for much of
the area. As the front stalls just off the coast, there remains a
low chance for isolated showers through much of Sunday, mainly along
and east of US-1 corridor. By Sunday afternoon/early evening a
secondary reinforcing front will move across the region clearing the
region of all precipitation.  Ahead of the initial front on
Saturday, gusty south to southwesterly winds with gusts up to 30 mph
are possible. A secondary front will then bring another period of
gusty northwesterly winds Sunday afternoon, with gusts again
reaching around 30 mph. By Monday, high pressure will build eastward
across the southern US , bringing dry conditions for Monday and
Tuesday. By midweek, model guidance diverges a bit with the
development and evolution of a potential coastal low on Wednesday,
resulting in lower forecast confidence by the end of the forecast
period. For now, have a slight chance of showers Wednesday through
Thursday but will be dependent on how deep the northern trough digs
south and how organized the coastal low becomes mid-week.
Temperatures will be well above normal on Saturday, with climate
locations (GSO/RDU/FAY) having the potential to challenge record
highs (and Record High Min). Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s
near 70 in the north to upper 70s align the south. Temperatures will
begin to transition Sunday night with lows in the NW in the mid 40s
and mid 50s across the SE. With the secondary cold front moving
through the region Sunday afternoon, highs will vary depending on
the timing but generally expect low 50s NW to low 60s SE. Much
cooler air arrives Sunday night, with lows in the mid to upper 20s
everywhere. Monday highs will be the coolest of the forecast period
with highs in the mid/upper 40s then another night of lows in the
mid/upper 20s. Temperatures begin to moderate back into the 50s on
Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the mid/upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...

We have high confidence in VFR conditions across central NC
terminals through at least mid evening, although high clouds will
continue to increase and become more opaque. Surface high pressure
over the Mid Atlantic coast will push offshore through the evening,
allowing a warm front to lift into the area tonight through Fri.
This will allow for increasing low level moisture spreading in from
the S and W, leading to development of IFR/LIFR cigs starting around
06z-08z at INT/GSO/FAY and reaching RDU/RWI closer to 09z-11z,
although the confidence is lowest at RWI. Improvement to MVFR cigs
is expected in the E (RWI/FAY/RDU) in the 14z-16z time frame, with
FAY/RWI potentially becoming VFR just prior to 18z Fri. In addition
to cigs, FAY may see a period of IFR/LIFR fog 08z-12z early Fri.
Conditions will largely remain dry outside of the Triad (INT/GSO)
where patchy drizzle is possible 08z-14z, trending to chances for
light rain through the end of the TAF valid period. Surface winds
will remain light, mostly under 10 kts, from the ENE through sunset,
then shifting to more easterly or from the ESE tonight then SSE or S
on Fri as a warm front lifts north into the area.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, sub-VFR conditions are likely to dominate at
INT/GSO well into Sat, ahead of an incoming cold front, with periods
of showers. RDU/RWI/FAY will also see a good chance for sub-VFR cigs
early Sat morning 07z-13z. The risk for showers and sub-VFR vsbys
will remain mostly over the W Piedmont into Sat morning before
shifting E over the remaining terminals Sat afternoon into Sat
night. We`ll also see increasingly gusty and shifting winds Fri
through Sat night, with periods of mechanical turbulence possible.
Behind the cold front passage late Sat night into Sun morning, VFR
conditions should return Sun, but NW winds will remain quite brisk
and gusty Sun. VFR conditions should hold Sun aftn through Tue. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

January 9:
KRDU: 73/2008
KFAY: 77/1930

January 10:
KGSO: 73/1949
KRDU: 75/1930
KFAY: 79/1930

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

January 10:
KGSO: 58/1937
KRDU: 63/1937
KFAY: 59/1937

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH